Arctic Blast Part 2January 14th, 2014 at 8:54 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled. A new advisory will be issued (probably with the 3:30 pm update) for the snow event coming late tonight and Thursday, which will be a general 1-4″, but as high as 4-6″ north of Muskegon. These are the 8-14 day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). This is for Jan. 22-28. (the 6-10 day is also cold for MI) Click on the images to enlarge. Note that the highest probability for colder than average weather is right over the Great Lakes (I agree) and we’re also in the highest probability of above average precipitation (that one I’m not sure of, we could get above average snowfall and below average precipitation with high snow to water ratios)…the “B” and the “A” right over Lower Michigan. Look at the GFS for the last week of Jan. (GFS at 264 hours) The European is similar. Joe Bastardi tweeted: “I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles (for) day 10-15. Outrageous!” The GRR NWS discussion issued early Weds. is a good one. The long-range discussion talks about the cold air that’s coming and mentions the possibility of significant ice on Lake Michigan.
Model Update: The European model (which has been too low with some of it’s 5-10 day coldest day minimum temp. foercasts gives G.R. a high low of 8/-14 on Jan. 22 and 10/-15 on Jan. 23rd. The GFS has a coldest temp. of -3 on the 23rd. The GFS also gives G.R. lows of -1 on 1/25 and -4 on the 26th. The overall pattern looks cool thru the end of Jan.
Also…snow for the Super Bowl? Up to 11″ of snow in N. Wisconsin, 9″ is a daily record in Eau Claire. They’ve had up to 11″ of snow in N. Lower Michigan in Leelanau County. Three people were killed in a car/tanker accident in Harshaw WI on slick roads. A 20-vehicle pile-up, involving several semis, closed I-39 in Marathon County, Wisconsin. Ice quakes hit Wisconsin! Coldest in Alaska, -32 Barrow and -45 Arctic Village. Frozen waterfall in China. Cut Bank MT went from 8 deg. to 38 as a warming westerly chinook wind blew down the mountains.