Arctic Blast Part 2

January 14th, 2014 at 8:54 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

814temp.new   814prcp.new   The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled.  A new advisory will be issued (probably with the 3:30 pm update) for the snow event coming late tonight and Thursday, which will be a general 1-4″, but as high as 4-6″ north of Muskegon.   These are the 8-14 day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).  This is for Jan. 22-28. (the 6-10 day is also cold for MI)  Click on the images to enlarge.  Note that the highest probability for colder than average weather is right over the Great Lakes (I agree) and we’re also in the highest probability of above average precipitation (that one I’m not sure of, we could get above average snowfall and below average precipitation with high snow to water ratios)…the “B” and the “A” right over Lower Michigan.   Look at the GFS for the last week of Jan.  (GFS at 264 hours)  The European is similar.  Joe Bastardi tweeted:  “I have never seen this cold a run of the ECWMF ensembles (for) day 10-15.  Outrageous!”      The GRR NWS discussion issued early Weds. is a good one.  The long-range discussion talks about the cold air that’s coming and mentions the possibility of significant ice on Lake Michigan.

Model Update:  The European model (which has been too low with some of it’s 5-10 day coldest day minimum temp. foercasts gives G.R. a high low of 8/-14 on Jan. 22 and 10/-15 on Jan. 23rd.  The GFS has a coldest temp. of -3 on the 23rd.  The GFS also gives G.R. lows of -1 on 1/25 and -4 on the 26th.  The overall pattern looks cool thru the end of Jan.

Also…snow for the Super Bowl?   Up to 11″ of snow in N. Wisconsin, 9″ is a daily record in Eau Claire.  They’ve had up to 11″ of snow in N. Lower Michigan in Leelanau County.   Three people were killed in a car/tanker accident in Harshaw WI on slick roads.  A 20-vehicle pile-up, involving several semis, closed I-39 in Marathon County, Wisconsin.  Ice quakes hit Wisconsin!  Coldest in Alaska, -32 Barrow and -45 Arctic Village.  Frozen waterfall in China.  Cut Bank MT went from 8 deg. to 38 as a warming westerly chinook wind blew down the mountains.

140 Responses to “Arctic Blast Part 2”

  1. Cort S. says:

    I am by no means an expert in the Madden-Julian Oscillation, but I’ve been shown today how we are trending toward Phase 7 for the rest of the month. An MJO phase 7 in January tends to produce these 500 mb height anomalies:

    http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanuaryPhase7500mb.gif

    So the general, long-term story for January will continue to be an amplified West Coast ridge and a Great Lakes – New England trough.

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Cort,,,,,Oh so much fun!!!!!!!!!!!! Here we go again on this road of COLD!!!!!!!!!!! Ready to freeze our toes and our nose!!!!!! Hey I think I wrote a song!! LOL………I just hope this is gone by the 2nd of February to the 5th of February cause I have to fly out to Minnesota for Transplant Workups. I fly in smaller planes, not the big ones so this is why I need good weather for my flights!!!!!!! Thanks everyone!!!

    2. and with that setup, when the warm air tries to come towards the great lakes we can often get some good warm air advection snows that can really squeeze out, ring out the moisture in the form of snow or even freezing rain as the cold air mass try’s to hold its ground. I don’t know if were going to get a lot of storms but I do believe there will be many chances over the next 4 weeks or longer. It should be busy with cold, wind and snow.

  2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Nice point Cort. The MJO is not a standing pattern though, it can be described as more of a ‘traveling’ pattern. I actually just (literally 3 hours ago) read an article about it in the BAMS magazine and I learned all about it :) Meteorologists use your phases based off of the RMM index, which is derived from EOF analysis of DAILY anomalies in upper/lower level winds and OLR. If you want to learn more about this influence in weather than I would highly suggest you pick up the Dec 2013 issue of BAMS. This isn’t like the ENSO, which is an extended pattern in the pacific. The MJO’s cycles are much shorter and can be known as the intraseasonal oscillation (or 30-60 day osculation) From Wikipedia:
    The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30–90 days) variability in the tropical atmosphere. It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep convection.[1][2] Rather than being a standing pattern (like ENSO) it is a traveling pattern, propagating eastwards at approximately 4 to 8 m/s (9 to 18 mph), through the atmosphere above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This overall circulation pattern manifests itself in various ways, most clearly as anomalous rainfall. This was discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian (again the comparison with ENSO is instructive, since their local effects on Peruvian fisheries were discovered long before the global structure of the pattern was recognized).
    Again, I would highly recommend taking a look at the BAMS magazine from last month.

    1. Cort S. says:

      BAMS landed in my inbox a few days ago. I’ll give it a read later this week. Learned a little bit about the basics of the MJO a few times in weather school, but its application to our local weather through teleconnections has been fairly mysterious to me. MJO plays a big part in the intra-seasonal activity of hurricane season too.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Yeah, looking at the entire pattern worldwide is a bit easier than zooming into one location and trying to get down to the specifics. Its a very interesting atmospheric pattern and is kind of tricky to understand at first. It took me a couple of reads and some searching to fully grasp all of the concepts. Again, I have coincidently spent the past few hours researching and reading about this. Thanks for bringing it up! Now I can try to apply it to our actual pattern.

  3. INDYY says:

    Don’t tell travass again……Wow the JEM who would of thought!! INDYY!!

    1. jerry hoag says:

      INDY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WAHOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Because Bastardi and the CPC are soo reliable and all. He was predicting the same thing for this week!

    Looks like a boring dry and seasonal pattern until further notice. Better get used to it! Heaven knows I’ll be driving up north to find some decent snow.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      So, are you discounting the GFS and Euro.?

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        The model that couldn’t even remotely predict accurate snowfall amounts 24 hours out? For now. Lots of time to re-evaluate a week from now.

        1. INDYY says:

          yaaaa and u go with your up hill warm call for months right??? Chill pill time !!!!! INDYY

        2. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

          Travis…The gfs and Euro accurately predicted the last cold outbreak 10+ days out!

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      This guy says you’re wrong.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K406w8AzryM

    3. Michael g (se gr) says:

      Well, let’s look back on Feb 1 and see who was closer. Arctic blast or seasonal?

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        I said pattern looks boring and seasonal until further notice. WeatherTrends is showing 5 or 6 days below 30 degrees. And then back above freezing. But definitely nothing major for now. Lots of time to re-evaluate.

        1. John says:

          Yes like we can trust weathertrends

    4. John says:

      Now your saying Bill can’t forecast right, WOW!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Wood doesn’t forecast that far out for a reason. Looks like they nailed the current forecast. Dry, boring, and around seasonal. WZZM too.

        1. Michael g (se gr) says:

          So, just for the record, would you describe the first half of this winter (dec1-jan15) as seasonable? It’s a pretty flexible word and I just want to get a feel for your parameters.

        2. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

          That is an excellent question, Michael, and I would love to hear Travis’ response. I’ll wait right here, holding my breath.

  5. jerry hoag says:

    Some dude on Shark Tank wanted to make some HUGE amounts of money by setting up machines in the Oceans that would turn the salt water and make HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THIS GUY WAS SMOKING SOME WEED OR SOMETHING!!! LOL…….

    1. Cort S. says:

      There is gold dissolved in the ocean, but it’s estimated that the concentration is only about a milligram per ton, so it’s uneconomical to harvest.

  6. INDYY says:

    Again don’t tell travass he may have to drive up north!!!! for good snow who would of thought!!!! loloo!! INDYY

  7. INDYY says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE cold offs u mean cold offs no way Bill!! INDYY

  8. INDYY says:

    JEM JEM JEM JEM JEM JEM JEM JEM!!! INDYYY

    1. Jack says:

      Thanks, INDYY !! Why 2 Y”s ?? Did ya Win a PRIZE ?? Any ways..The JEM is “Most Wanted” model around !!! Lookie Here to See, My friend:::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vcw2Aje5KU0. ;-) ).

  9. Brian(Grandville) says:

    The western U.S. is in a major precip. drought right now. Which would mean the eastern U.S. is in a surplus. That’s how it works. Looking at snow pack levels in CA, compared to last year, they are really hurting. Hopefully that can change, since they are so dependent on snow pack, and reservoir water for their annual usage. Not to mention the ski resorts can’t be having the best year also.

    1. WswPlz says:

      It’s really bad. Went to see my family in northern Ca and didn’t bother going to Lake Tahoe because they have no snow. I used to work at squaw valley ski resort in Tahoe, where an average season they will see around 450 inches, and 500+ during some winters. This year they might have a 2 foot base, pretty anaemic. They are really hurting.

  10. Mark says:

    So am I reading the link from Bastardi right? I think it’s saying that 10-15 days from now, for that entire period, we’ll average 13-15 degrees below normal temps IN CELSIUS? Since 13-15 degrees in Celsius is worth around 25 degrees in Fahrenheit, if our average high then is what, about 28-29 degrees Fahrenheit, we’re looking at a five-day stretch with high temps around 3-5 degrees Fahrenheit? Is that basically what that map is trying to say? If so, that’s just brutal.

    1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

      Yeah maybe even worse!? Especially the wind chills.

  11. Jack says:

    Well,well…It Looks like We are Getting READY, for another 10th avenue ” Frezze Out” !! CUE::: BRUCE::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BL-HL3ELvFI. Stay cued the JEM still has it’s Cues ( eyes) on A BIGGIE in Feb. Could Be 1 2 REMEMBER !!! ;-)

    1. WswPlz says:

      Only 3 football lengths in width, pretty amazing given its 12 miles up!! How do they estimate the height Cort?

      1. Cort S. says:

        I’m guessing with sun angle and shadow length.

        Isn’t it amazing that we have these photos? It’s taken the entirety of human history to get to this point. Every human who has ever lived, until recently, has only been able to look up at the sky and dream about what it is like out there. Only the latest few of us have seen machines touch planets separate from our own, and we have seen the high-resolution pictures which billions of our ancestors could only imagine.

        1. WswPlz says:

          Really is amazing and to think just how far we come so quickly. All I have to do is talk to my parents and they never hesitate to remind me ” when I was little ” what is was like. I’m sure most have heard those words. Lol

        2. mr. negative says:

          “Every human who has ever lived”…yep, our current existence is all that ever mattered, and all that ever will matter. Nothing could be greater than “us”…as WE are the only humans to have ever amounted to anything significant. No other human existence should have happened as all will be insignificant in the light of our current observation.

        3. Cort S. says:

          Totally not the point I was making, but thanks for your perspective on that…

    2. Jack says:

      Thanks Cort, Very Interesting Great Reading & links. I witnessed a couple ” Snow Devils” in my backyard this Winter same Concept ! Thanks Agian …& Stay Cued!!! Ps….Cue Request Line IS NOW OPEN !! For ALL!! Lol….. ;-)

      1. Cort S. says:

        Jack! CUE “The Universe is Weird!” …
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcwkOFSrLFI

  12. Jack says:

    Lol…. Very Entertaining !! ” Geek” Music !!! Love it !! Here is a CUE on That NOTE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVNbD1nySlw. Hahahaha LOL…. Stay Cued !!

    1. WswPlz says:

      Go 49ers btw…. Tough game coming up, I hope they can get to big show again and win this time around. So close, but yet oh so far. One game at a time. As is true to life.

      1. Jack says:

        Yup, With Me as Well WSW PLZ ! One day at a Time Cue,,,, Joe Walsh ( my brother in addiction) ,,,,, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlfCyHbLdpI. ;-)

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Great song…I’m playin’ it now for the 2nd time.

        2. Jack says:

          Yes it is Bill ! Have you ever His Song Called ” Family” Check it Out ,,,Kinda Mellow for Joe , but It IS a Great Tune as Well !! SPIN: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCqWMk8jXeY. Enjoy ! :-)

        3. Dan says:

          Joe Walsh what a great talent! Thanks for posting Jack.

        4. WswPlz says:

          Got to love me some Joe Walsh. Good spin! Jack….

  13. Jacob G. says:

    What is also impressive seeing the snowpack continue to increase NW, N and NE of us. I think we will be setting up quite the collision coming late winter with this snowpack, not to mention if the lakes go above average with ice and cooler water temps. Today is the half way mark of meteorological winter, quite the contrast from the last several winters indeed!

  14. Dan says:

    Cold and more cold. We need some big snows to go with the cold! This winter is rocking so far except for the few days of warm ups! Nice Blizzard condition set up going forward!

    1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

      Read the NWS discussion. No storms anywhere in sight for at least 2+ weeks.
      That’s great news.

      1. Cort S. says:

        Just a Clipper train. No Texas Hookers for a while.

        1. dj2450 says:

          It looks like a lot of 2-4 inch snowfalls over the next couple of weeks. A snow plower’s delight.

    2. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

      Don’t you guys get paid by the season?
      I would think that these 2-4″ plows are a pain.

      1. dj2450 says:

        Some do some don’t. I’m not a snow plower but Todd in Nunica is and this pattern is what he ordered last bweek.

        1. Todd In Nunica says:

          ahh cool, right around the corner from me. Its an odd town to say the least…lol Crazy to think the population used to be well over 8000 and now is only 3000, I have pics of my house in the 1920′s showing the old train station, where my garage is was the old tack store, and there used to be a chevy dealership on the corner, next to the tack store. So where I am used to in fact be downtown….lol

      2. Todd In Nunica says:

        Some are seasonal some are per time, seems in GR its mostly seasonal, out here in Muskegon I have offered seasonal every year but most choose per time, Its the most “fair” for both parties for sure, and then you dont have customers calling at 1″ wanting to be plowed and thinking you will be there 5 times a day to plow, Ill be there as much as they want to pay for.

        I also do a stair-step price structure for business, they have a “base” charge, this covers 2-4″ then at 4.1-7″ its 50% more, then over 7″ its double. (takes double the time to plow at 7″ vs 2-3″)

        So yea 2″ is perfect, sure its more trips, more miles with the truck, BUT less wear and tear, easier on the body as well as the equipment.

        1. dj2450 says:

          Now we know. BTW way Todd many years ago (late 70′s) my wife and I lived in the brick house across from the church on South St. in Nunica.

  15. bluegill says:

    Took another 9″ off the driveway in NE Grand Traverse County this morning after taking off 4″ last nigh. That makes 13″ for this snow event. Still snowing pretty good, so this will blow us past 120″ YTD.

  16. fixxxer says:

    Having a pretty good feeling spring will be well below average this year. If this arctic cold is the new standard here for winter it may be time to look to moving well south. Our heating bill is outragous so far.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Hope you’re wrong, Fixxxy. I agree about the heating bills.

  17. INDYY says:

    again….THEE JEM JEM JEM JEM JEM JEM JEM!! 4 MODEL OF THE YEAR INDYY!!

  18. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Well, don’t expect this to make any blog or newspaper headlines, but this week’s ice update is out.

    Great Lakes ice levels are now below where they were in 2009 and 2011… and 2001, 1999, 1996, etc… and pretty darn close to long-term averages.

    What a difference a warm week makes!

    http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtml

    1. Mike (southeast Berrien county) says:

      NWS GR on next week’s cold snap… “GIVEN THAT THESE PROLONGED COLD TEMPERATURES DO HAPPEN…AND GIVEN
      THAT LAKE MICHIGAN HAD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ICE ON IT FROM THE
      COLD WEATHER LAST WEEK… WE COULD SEE ICE COVER ON LAKE MICHIGAN
      INCREASE TO LEVELS NOT SEEN IN MANY YEARS.”

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Here’s the Lake Michigan update

        http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtml

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          The Great Lakes graphic looks suspect. There’s no way we had slightly above average ice in the winter of 1982-83. That was a super El Nino winter and it was unseasonably warm thru the entire winter. The most snow in one day was on the first day of spring.

    2. Michael g (se gr) says:

      Talk about cherry picking! Pointing out after the thaw that ice is “pretty darn close to average”. Almost makes our 2 months of well below average temps seem like they didn’t happen, right Travis?

      Be sure to give us an update on that three weeks from now!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Huh? What was cherry picking was all those countless articles saying it’s the worst ice in decades right after the polar vortex.

        Shows you how silly and volatile stats like those are.

        1. arcturus says:

          Agreed, just like news reports of snow coverage just after a major system.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Look at the entire N. Hemisphere…there’s a lot of snow: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1#nhland and there was for most of 2013.

    3. WswPlz says:

      Better for LES so I will take it while it lasts. Which doesn’t look to be long, given the Siberia express complements of ” mother Russia “.

  19. INDYY says:

    Well more snow fell last night that makes 40 days in a roll with snow cover my poor grass!!!! Best winter in years!! IDNYY….

  20. dj2450 says:

    Does anyone else think someone was out to lunch when they chose the location for this years Super Bowl? Can you imagine if a major storm came up the east coast dumping a foot or more of snow. Transportation would be a nightmare with flights cancelled etc… It’s not nice to tempt mother nature.

    1. WswPlz says:

      + 1 should be in San Diego

      1. dj2450 says:

        I haven’t done any research on this. I ask, is there a location that has an outdoor statdium that has a better chance of a major snow storm during this time frame?

  21. From the NWS about the SWA:

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT

    SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME LESS TRAVELED ROADS
    MAY STILL BE ICY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF US-31
    NORTH OF HOLLAND.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

    PERIODS OF SNOW… MOSTLY NEAR AND WEST OF US-131 ARE EXPECTED
    INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
    IN THOSE AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

    SNOW WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
    THIS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WITH IT TOO.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      More interesting than NWS Detroit’s outlook that’s for sure:

      “Once again, unimpressive dynamics suggest nothing more than minor accumulations. Outside of those two periods, generally looking at episodic snow showers associated with low amplitude impulses embedded in cyclonic flow acting on abundant low-level moisture and little to no accumulation.”

      1. WswPlz says:

        How is that interesting Travis, I thought you liked skiing? And not on Rocks..

        1. WswPlz says:

          Ahhh, my bad, have to learn how to read, should say see above. Lol

      2. Well that’s for Detroit. I could care a less about the weather over there to be honest.

      3. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

        Detroit doesn’t get much lake effect. Their forecast is typically more quiet.

  22. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While there has been talk about how it was a bad idea to have an east coast supper howl. Well how about were the 2014 winter Olympics are at? While I am sure there will be snow of some sort in the mountains around that area in the city its self not so much! Here is a look at the “average” February weather in Sochi.

    http://weatherspark.com/averages/33852/2/Sochi-Krasnodarskiy-kray-Russian-Federation

    And while its from TWC their 10 guess looks to be in line with Sochi’s average range.

    http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/RSXX1430

    But hey its all fun and games right?
    SlimJim

    1. WswPlz says:

      I thought it might be a bit of a challenge for other reasons, but I didn’t realize that, as it pertains snow. Hmmm. It must be like you said much greater amounts in the mountains where most the events are held. Have not looked into it though. Did you see where the events are being held at slim?

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        All I can find is in “near by resorts”
        SlimJim

        1. WswPlz says:

          One would think they would have thought about it, since it is the Winter Olympics after all, right? Actually maybe not, considering Olympic committees of past. Lol

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Good stuff, Slim.

      But I’m wondering if you’re looking at the wrong forecast? For instance when the Olympics were in Salt Lake City, everyone kept looking at the balmy Salt Lake City forecasts and scratching their head.

      Most of the snow competitions, however, were held up in the mountains in Park City where it’s consistently 10-30 degrees cooler.

      I wonder if something similar is in play here?

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      Vancouver was a little like that…lots of snow in the mountains and very little when you got to the lower elevations down toward sea level.

  23. WswPlz says:

    Anybody have any GOOD NEWS for us snow lovers besides the cold? I’m really spiraling out of control here. Plz help.. Starting to get the snow DT’S….

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      The good news is that what snow we do get and the old hard snow will stick around for a long time. Well into February.
      SlimJim

  24. Dan says:

    Polar Vortex deuce! Maybe? We need a decent snow storm. I know, the long range isn’t showing anything. You know how reliable that can be. Rocky does the JEM have the storm for the end of January?
    Also, for those of you who like College Basketball, Wisconsin went down to Indiana last night. The BIG Ten should get even more interesting as we move forward toward March Madness!!

    1. WswPlz says:

      Wow, what was the score?

  25. Mike (southeast Berrien county) says:

    A few inches of fresh snow down since last night…. snowing pretty good again here now.

  26. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Well it looks like we could be in for a long cold spell. So with the cold and what looks like no big storms coming in the next 15 days or so. That means while we will have a snow pack here for the rest of January and at lest the start of February. We should not add all that much to our seasonal total. Remember if it gets as cold as it now looks and for as long as it looks there will be less and less lake effect snows. That means we will have to rely on system snows more and more. What I am hinting at is as far as the “total” snow fall for the 2013/14 winter season may not end up much above average (witch is around 75”) Of course with all the ice (and old hard snow cover) that will be around we could still have a few big March snow or ice events.
    SlimJim

    1. WswPlz says:

      Slim, that’s not good news… :( . I know it’s reality so I’m glad your stating the facts, however there has got to be a bone somewhere in our long-term forecast. At least something to talk about besides cold, cold and more cold.

    2. Mike (southeast Berrien county) says:

      A good northwest flow pattern though could give us some moderate intensity clipper systems in addition to the lake effect. Look at yesterday’s clipper that produced 6-10+ inches of snow from Wisconsin to northern lower. Some of these northern stream storms can sometimes sneak up on ya & surprise us with a good dumping if we are in a favorable path.

  27. Dan says:

    Nice assessment Slim! There is a chance that the southern stream can send a storm our way. However, it will be very difficult for those storms in the cold dome of air. The dynamics and the storm track would not favor that.
    Maybe, we get some changing and some warmer air to help with this.

    1. WswPlz says:

      Yes, hopefully some rich gulf air, but as you know that to is a double edge sword.

  28. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Like Indy pointed out we are now coming up on 40 days in a row with snow cover here in GR. Here is a question. 1. What is the average number of days in a row with snow cover here in GR for a winter? And 2. What is the record most number of days in a row with snow cover for GR ?
    SlimJim

  29. WswPlz says:

    Hmm… Without looking of course. Record 158. And 29 days average

    1. WswPlz says:

      Probably to,light on my guess for the record.

      1. WswPlz says:

        Survey says?

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          Still have not found the record number of consecutive days with snow cover (at least one inch) but I did find out we are no where near the record. As last year we had a stretch of 39 days (from January 31 to March 10th)

          http://weatherspark.com/history/30405/2013/Grand-Rapids-Michigan-United-States

          So it looks like we still have a ways to go for any such records if they can be found.
          SlimJim

        2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

          Last year I had about 5″ of snow until the middle of January. Finished with 80″. This year, I may be close to 80″ soon…then probably get 5″ the rest of the winter. I prefer the front loaded winters as this has been, but would rather see a stormy pattern as opposed to these clippers.

        3. WswPlz says:

          I can find everything in between but not snow cover duration. In 2008 they had 102 days wit mess snow and nearly 144″ for the year. I would bee extremely happy with that amount any year soon. Lol

  30. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    .UPDATE…
    ISSUED AT 1108 AM EST WED JAN 15 2014

    WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS SNOW AND WINDS HAVE
    DIMINISHED. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY
    AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.

    MAY NEED ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT
    AND THURSDAY AS A 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW EVENT SEEMS LIKELY.

  31. John says:

    Looks like a good chance at another winter weather advisory tonight, the NAM gives all of the lakeshore counties and western portions of the next set of counties inland 5-7″ of snow over the next couple days, and yes I often say the NAM is the trash model but it does better on the lake effect than system snows, so I trust it more

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      You trust it becuase it gives you the most snow?

  32. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We received 3″ overnight. I’m up to 30.6″ for January, and 74.1″ for the season.

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      I’m close…but we have about 29″ for the month, and 69″ for the year…and that is with really only one significant synoptic snow and one significant lake effect snow (all one big event).

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        We just got hammered during the first week of January….something like 28″ in a weeks time.

  33. michael g (SE GR) says:

    GFS just keeps getting colder in the long range.

  34. Wolverdog says:

    Blizzards out west coming our way? This storm might be intensifying!

  35. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Here’s the review for 2013 for temps and precip for the entire U.S. You can see the central U.S. was below avg while the edges of the country were above average, and inbetween those areas were near avg.

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2013/13

  36. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    Well the snow had pretty come to an end an hour ago. Went outside to grab the mail and feed the birds and the snow showers ramped up big time again!

  37. michael g (SE GR) says:

    More seasonable weather on the way. Per Travis.

    http://t.co/XjVLGfMA3E

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Travis a sick delusional person! His global warming sickness is out of control!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Almost as sick and delusional as you and your snow and mini ice age hype. Thanks for listening and commenting.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I wonder if that -33° day was seasonable… Not comparable to the +31° max in March 2012 I am sure. I still haven’t had time to go back and see if there was a greater than +/-33° day in Detroit in recent history.

  38. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looking at the cold that looks to be coming this is what Accu less weathers Paul Pastelok
    Has to say about it.

    “Now that you think that is scary, look at the 500 mb anomalies from the NCEP ensembles. Take a look at the monster ridge building up over Alaska connecting with the higher height field from northern Asia. Extremes, extremes and extremes. Alaska will be warm and dry, and bitter cold will reach the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest during the last week of January. Northern jet will combine with southern jet along Gulf coast, perhaps leading to a storm or two. However, looking at the eastern pattern, watch out in the mid-Atlantic back toward the Tennessee and Mississippi valleys. Even New England, more and more support for a significant storm or two between Jan. 25 and Feb. 10. Last I checked, our 45-day numbers on the free site are way too high.”

    SlimJim

    1. ER From GR says:

      Ive been predicting a wild storm the first week of february!!

  39. John says:

    I have been hearing meteorologist saying that this next cold outbreak for late next week into the following week could beat the early month cold outbreak, I guess it’s time to gear up for being in the house a few days!

    1. Jack says:

      If my Ole Memory Serves Me Correctly ! The JEM posted or Mentioned that The NEXT Blast of COLD, was Coming !! 3-4 weeks ago !! Will it Be COLDER than the Last Polar Vortex ?? We shall See ! So Stay Cued,….. Also I noticed they Increased the Snow Fall amounts for The 18th of January !!!! Who KNEW??? ;-)

  40. John says:

    The NWS upped snowfall amounts for me the next couple days, tonight-snowfall around one inch, tomorrow-snowfall around 3 inches, tomorrow night-snowfall around 2 inches, Friday-snowfall around 2 inches, all together would come to a total of 8inches through Friday! :)

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      That isn’t the most accurate way to measure snowfall… Think of it as an estimate. I would count on about 6-8 inches of snow through Friday, at least judging by that specific source.

    2. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Sounds good, but location?

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Yeah, good luck with that.

  41. yooper4021 says:

    WWA up for Muskegon north to Ludington.

    Also from the GR NWS afternoon long range discussion:

    BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT TEMPERATURES BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE TEN TO TWENTY DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.

  42. John says:

    WWA for Muskegon, Oceana, and Mason counties! :)

    1. John says:

      Heaviest snow along and west of US.31 from Muskegon to the north

  43. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    GR is in a no accumulating SNOW pattern! The last clipper was a bust and GR will only see a little more than a dusting on Thursday and then the Sat clipper will miss us to the South! This winter could end up as a bust if we don’t see another SNOWSTORM soon!

    1. John says:

      Rocky you make no sense to me whatsoever, just a few days ago you said we were in a snowy and cold pattern and that GR would see over 100″ of snow, now your being a debbie downer about the snow and say that we may not see much more snow this winter so basically saying GR will not reach that over 100″ mark??? Hmmm, just don’t understand

      1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

        Rocky is using reverse psychology, as discussed in yesterday’s thread ;)

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          + one trillion!

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Just the facts baby!

    2. Jack says:

      Oh Ye of Little Faith…The JEM says Near Blizzard Conditions coming in Febuary ! Stay cued & Here is a “Wasted” tune on This ” Wasted Wednesday”"”. CUE::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4E1HKbvg50. ;-) .

  44. Jack says:

    **** NEW THREAD*****. ^^^^^^^^^^^. Stay CuEd…

  45. tyler says:

    33 inches of snow for the season here in escanaba. We had 3 inches of snow last night. Last Friday night into Saturday morning we had a ice storm then 3 inches of snow on top of that.

  46. Karrie says:

    From a more practical standpoint, regarding the cold temps again, will we be talking more wind chill advisories/warnings/school closings? If so, I think I’d like to stock up on things like packages of frozen burritos, chimichangas, and bags of pizza rolls. I mean, have you seen what healthy 12-year-old boys put away? Now tack snow shovelling onto that. I’d like to come home and not find my cat missing…

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