Mid-Point of Winter, Monday-TuesdayJanuary 20th, 2014 at 4:03 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Early Tue. AM – Heavy lake-effect snow band has been pushed into Chicago overnight, where snowfall rates have been an inch an hour. They’re getting 6-12″ from Chicago around the lake past Gary, Indiana. With a NNE wind, we’ll be partly cloudy and cold with afternoon temps. around 10-15 the next 3 days. The winds won’t be terribly strong. As winds back to the north and then NNW, the lake-effect band will start to shift east toward Berrien and perhaps W. Van Buren Counties.
Here’s pics. from the GLERL camera at Alpena looking out on Lake Superior (and all you can see is ice – no open water). Here’s GFS temperature variation from average…huge much colder than average over the Great Lakes.
I’ll leave radar up top again. The radar should update automatically, so come back to check. Temperature-wise, we’re at the mid-point of winter – on average the coldest temps. occur about one month past the Solstice. The days are getting longer now at the rate of a little over 2 minutes per day. At least the 2nd half of winter is the brighter half, with more minutes of sunshine. The cold is coming from the north, so you can check current conditions and the Michigan weather map to see what’s coming. There are lots of links in the last paragraph to check out. At 3 am it was 34 at the Ford Airport in G.R., 21 in Big Rapids, 10 in Gaylord, -1 in Sault Ste. Marie and -15 to -25 north of Lake Superior. Here’s a national map, so you can see north of Lake Superior. There’s a Winter Storm Watch for lake-effect snow for Berrien Co. Michigan and for Starke and La Porte Counties in Indiana for “SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN A NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.”
AM Model update: 12:30 pm…the GFS-plot doesn’t take the temperature in G.R. above freezing during the next 15 days! 7-day GFS precipitation…look close and you can see another shade of green (more snow from lake-effect) near Lake Michigan – continued dry in California. Morning run of the NAM (caribou) has 2.4″ of snow for G.R. Weds./Weds. night. Earlier: Wow…the models are cold! The European (which has erred on the cold side at night, especially) has AM low/daytime high of -6/10 on Tues. for G.R., -10/13 on Weds., -3/14 on Thurs….then up to a high near 30 for Sat. and Sun and we get several inches of snow from Fri. night to Sunday…thenn -4/6 on Monday the 27th, -20/10 on Tue. and -10/19 on Weds. Dr. Ryan Maue says: “forecast 850 mb temps next Monday 27th morning compare well to Jan 7th (G.R. got to -9 with that shot of cold air – temps. on map at link are in Celsius and 850 mb is a little less than a mile off the ground). The GFS plot has warmer nighttime temps. with more clouds and more hours with the wind coming off the lake. This model gives low/high temps. for G.R. of 1/12 on Tue., 6/14 on Weds., 2/12 on Thurs., 6/16 on Fri…up to the low 30s Saturday and snowing all day…then back to 8 above Sun. afternoon, -2/8 on Mon. the 27th, 4/11 on Tue…for Friday the 31st the model gives G.R. a low/high of 0/13 and for Feb. 4 it has 5/13. The NAM model gives G.R. a low/high of 11/15 on Mon., 11/18 on Tue. and 4/16 on Thurs. with 2.1″ of snow on Weds. Here’s an appropriate song,( anyone up for another Don MacLean Lip Dub).
Some warm air to our west and southwest on Sunday. High temps: 65 Denver, 68 Grand Is. NE, 53 Des Moines and St. Louis, 54 at Helena MT. Once you sent 400 miles north of Lake Superior, afternoon temps. were running -20 to -25. No matter how cold it gets and how long it stays cold, this Michigan lake never freezes in winter. Here’s the forecast temps. this week for S. Ste. Marie…I wonder how long it’s going to take to freeze over Lake Superior with two weeks of this cold up there. The SW U.S. stays dry. Floods in the Philippines after 4 FEET of rain! BLUE-HOT lava in Indonesia.
Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air continues. Here’s some river water temps. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.