Mid-Point of Winter, Monday-Tuesday

January 20th, 2014 at 4:03 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local    Early Tue. AM – Heavy lake-effect snow band has been pushed into Chicago overnight, where snowfall rates have been an inch an hour.  They’re getting 6-12″ from Chicago around the lake past Gary, Indiana.  With a NNE wind, we’ll be partly cloudy and cold with afternoon temps. around 10-15 the next 3 days.  The winds won’t be terribly strong.  As winds back to the north and then NNW, the lake-effect band will start to shift east toward Berrien and perhaps W. Van Buren Counties.

Here’s pics. from the GLERL camera at Alpena looking out on Lake Superior (and all you can see is ice – no open water).     Here’s GFS temperature variation from average…huge much colder than average over the Great Lakes.

I’ll leave radar up top again.  The radar should update automatically, so come back to check.  Temperature-wise, we’re at the mid-point of winter – on average the coldest temps. occur about one month past the Solstice.  The days are getting longer now at the rate of a little over 2 minutes per day.  At least the 2nd half of winter is the brighter half, with more minutes of sunshine.  The cold is coming from the north, so you can check current conditions and the Michigan weather map to see what’s coming.  There are lots of links in the last paragraph to check out.   At 3 am it was 34 at the Ford Airport in G.R., 21 in Big Rapids, 10 in Gaylord, -1 in Sault Ste. Marie and -15 to -25 north of Lake Superior.   Here’s a national map, so you can see north of Lake Superior.   There’s a Winter Storm Watch for lake-effect snow for Berrien Co. Michigan and for Starke and La Porte Counties in Indiana for “SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN A NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND.”

AM Model update12:30 pm…the  GFS-plot doesn’t take the temperature in G.R. above freezing during the next 15 days!  7-day GFS precipitation…look close and you can see another shade of green (more snow from lake-effect) near Lake Michigan – continued dry in California.   Morning run of the NAM (caribou) has 2.4″ of snow for G.R. Weds./Weds. night.    Earlier:   Wow…the models are cold!  The European (which has erred on the cold side at night, especially) has AM low/daytime high of -6/10 on Tues. for G.R., -10/13 on Weds., -3/14 on Thurs….then up to a high near 30 for Sat. and Sun and we get several inches of snow from Fri. night to Sunday…thenn -4/6 on Monday the 27th, -20/10 on Tue. and -10/19 on Weds.  Dr. Ryan Maue says:  “forecast 850 mb temps next Monday 27th morning compare well to Jan 7th (G.R. got to -9 with that shot of cold air – temps. on map at link are in Celsius and 850 mb is a little less than a mile off the ground).    The GFS plot has warmer nighttime temps. with more clouds and more hours with the wind coming off the lake.  This model gives low/high temps. for G.R. of  1/12 on Tue., 6/14 on Weds., 2/12 on Thurs., 6/16 on Fri…up to the low 30s Saturday and snowing all day…then back to 8 above Sun. afternoon, -2/8 on Mon. the 27th, 4/11 on Tue…for Friday the 31st the model gives G.R. a low/high of 0/13 and for Feb. 4 it has 5/13.   The NAM model gives G.R. a low/high of 11/15 on Mon., 11/18 on Tue. and 4/16 on Thurs. with 2.1″ of snow on Weds.   Here’s an appropriate song,( anyone up for another Don MacLean Lip Dub).

Some warm air to our west and southwest on Sunday.  High temps:  65 Denver, 68 Grand Is. NE, 53 Des Moines and St. Louis, 54 at Helena MT.  Once you sent 400 miles north of Lake Superior, afternoon temps. were running -20 to -25.  No matter how cold it gets and how long it stays cold, this Michigan lake never freezes in winter.   Here’s the forecast temps. this week for S. Ste. Marie…I wonder how long it’s going to take to freeze over Lake Superior with two weeks of this cold up there.   The SW U.S. stays dry.   Floods in the Philippines after 4 FEET of rain!  BLUE-HOT lava in Indonesia.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers as the cold air continues. Here’s some river water temps. Check out our new Lakes and Rivers Webpage.

196 Responses to “Mid-Point of Winter, Monday-Tuesday”

  1. Jack says:

    Off ” POT”ic…yeah( pun intended) Here:::: Obama: Pot not ‘more dangerous’ than alcohol
    NBCNews.com ‎- 3 hours ago
    President Barack Obama says smoking pot isn’t “more dangerous” than drinking alcohol. “As has been well-documented, I smoked pot as a kid, … ;-) . Stay Cued !!!

    1. INDY says:

      Alcohol Kills Pot Makes U lol!!!! Ask uncle sparkee!! INDYY

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      They should be under the same classification. To loop weed in with acid and heroin is ridiculous.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      From this Cannibas Fact Sheet from the National Highway Safety Administration:

      Panel’s Assessment of Driving Risks: “Low doses of THC moderately impair cognitive and psychomotor tasks associated with driving, while severe driving impairment is observed with high doses, chronic use and in combination with low doses of alcohol The more difficult and unpredictable the task, the more likely marijuana will impair performance.”

      1. Michael g (se gr) says:

        Never use common sense or logic to debate pot heads. They are convinced by neither.

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        The abuse or overuse of any mind-altering substance can lead to irreversible consequences.

        Like you see on every alcohol ad – please enjoy responsibly.

      3. Jack says:

        Bill, In regards to Driving while ” High” ! Do you remember the Book called ” A Childs Garden of Grass”? It was book Promoting Pot back in the Sixities ! The Book Had a CHAPTER on Driving Under The Influence Weed. It was a 1page Chapter, That Simply Said ” DON’ T !!! Stay Cued …for more fun facts to know,and or….YELL!! ;-)

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          Don’t remember the book – I do remember the movie “Reefer Madness”.

          With 5 years of living at the Univ. of Wis. – Madison, I have plenty of experience observing alcohol and pot..and I would much rather have my kids be driven by someone who’s had one beer than someone who has smoked one joint. I remember one time I went into a room and three high guys were taking turns putting (the same) metal wires into their ears. The wire went thru a charcoal grill and they were banging the grill with a spoon and diggin’ the “farout” sound in their ears. I think these are the guys who designed the ACA website.

        2. Jack says:

          Here is Who wrote the Book Bill Jack S. Margolis – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
          en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_S._Margolis
          Jack S. Margolis is a counterculture writer. He is known for his pro-marijuana book A Child’s Garden Of Grass, which he developed into a comedy album in the  …
          Stay Cued… ;-)

      4. Ryan (Rockford) says:

        I don’t use marijuana and quite frankly cannot stand its smell, but my two cents on it is the following. First, any time you abuse a mind-altering drug, whether it’s alcohol, marijuana, cocaine, prescription pills, etc., there are both long-term and short-term effects. Let’s focus on alcohol and marijuana, since this appears to be the main discussion.

        Most adults can drink moderately and/or socially and have a good time without putting themselves or others at any advanced risk. I could personally have a 2 beers with a meal in a 45 minute-1 hour span and both feel and act virtually 100 percent. With each beer at approximately .02 BAC, minus the .015 it metabolizes per hour, that would put me at .025 after an hour…well below the legal limit. With marijuana, it seems that there might be a lower tolerance to get to a point where someone is “impaired” under the law (i.e. not able to pass a sobriety test). I really don’t know the exact amount it takes, as I’m rarely if ever around people who use it, but let’s assume it takes only a small amount of weed (unlike a small amount of alcohol) to impair someone.

        With all of that said, I believe the government grossly misuses its resources in trying to combat personal marijuana use. I’m NOT talking about people who deal drugs and have large amounts on their person or property. While marijuana is obviously damaging in the short and long term, I would hypothesize that it results in many fewer deaths and serious injuries than alcohol (if someone has different statistics, I would have no objection to eating my own words). As a general rule, it seems “high” people are relaxed, slow, and more or less “out of it.” It’s also almost impossible to overdose from too much weed.

        With alcohol, I believe the short-term dangers of misuse far outweigh the misuse of marijuana. It is a piece of cake for just about anyone, both those above and below 21 years old, to get booze and become dangerously drunk in a short amount of time. For lots of people, that results in violent rages, “blackout” stages, and other extremely dangerous and explosive behavior for both the user and other people. Again, I don’t pretend to be an expert by any means, but I find it rare that short-term excessive marijuana use causes these same types of behaviors at anywhere close to the rate that binge-drinking alcohol does. Alcohol is also far and away the most abused substance in the country. With all of that said, it is also arguably the most widely promoted product in the country. Yet, the government spends billions arresting people for small amounts of marijuana, which is usually for their own personal use. Marijuana is immediately associated with criminality because of the laws forbidding use or possession of it, yet the more volatile alcohol is promoted, sold, and revered throughout much of our society. In the long-term, each drug will cause varying levels of harm to one’s health, but so does eating fast food, not exercising, smoking cigarettes, etc. I don’t think it’s the government’s job to criminalize these activities. And if you’re not going to criminalize alcohol use, even though there are “drunk in public” and OWI penalties for idiots who make fools of themselves, I don’t think there should be a penalty for mere possession of it, especially given the costs associated with enforcing the laws. That’s my two cents, and I respect other opinions on the matter of course. I used to have a much different stance on this issue.

        1. Jack says:

          Very Well Put !!! Ryan!!!! $$$$$$$$ that was worth a Lot More than Two Cents…thanks again & Stay cued ……. ;-)

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Here’s my take on the topic Ryan. My biggest problem with the new laws are that there are so many young people out there to get a card (or whatever they call it) not having any disability or need for it, other than to get a free pass to get high. I did use as a teen, but grew out of it. It did have an effect on my high school years. I spent a lot of time making up skipped classes before graduating. As a parent, I really don’t want to see it used out in the open and more freely then it was when I grew up. If people want to smoke it, that’s fine with me, just quit trying to glorify it to the rest of the mainstream media. Keep it to yourself, not everyone wants to smell your cloud.

        3. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          Agreed Brian. I am not advocating it by any means…I just don’t think criminally penalizing personal use is a misuse of resources and doesn’t jive with some other laws. As for the medicinal need, unfortunately that type of issue will exist for any controlled substances that are prescribed. While some people legitimately have a need, others are always looking for ways to come across as disabled just to get legal access. Nonetheless, I’d rather have someone con their doctor into prescribing marijuana than I would Vicodin or other related substances…not that any of them are good options of course.

        4. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          *Second sentence should say “I think” instead of “I don’t think.”

      5. Judy (Fennville) says:

        That’s just common sense. Nobody is debating that pot doesn’t impair abilities. BUT it CAN be used responsibly. I hope that the people of Colorado set a good example, and use it responsibly, so that it doesn’t ruin the chances of other states legalizing it.

  2. Phheww! it finally feels good to be able to sit back and relax, after a chaotic week last week with exams and this 3 day weekend was busy as well. At least I can finally get back to the weather now that I don’t have to study for exams. Only one more semester to go! going to hold my place on the Honor Roll at school too. Nothing better than seeing your name on a big poster board in the hall to reconize the students with an A or A and B average. I briefly looked over some of the blog posts on here, and it looks like I have some more data to look at for this coming weeks weather.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I have exams tomorrow and I haven’t been able to study too much with the flu. Saturday I couldn’t do anything, Sunday I was able to study a little, and today I stayed home and attempted to study a bit. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day, being sick and only slightly prepared for exams. Luckily my grades are high enough that I can get an 85 on the exam and still an A in the class. Whew! Enjoy tracking the weather, Ill probably be back tracking with you guys Thursday afternoon :)

      1. Good luck Nathan! Show the exams who’s boss!

  3. John (Norton Shores) says:

    John Dee has 4-8″ of snow for everyone along and west of 131 for Wednesday into Thursday

  4. SMurphy says:

    Is there a special weather significance to why Bill keeps talking about lake Michigan freezing over? or is it just that it rarely happens?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      It’s very rare…and when it and if it does, it would greatly change out weather, as we’d lose the lake-effect warming, cloud cover and snow.

      1. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

        And without the warming, I’ll start having brutally cold Wisconsin flashbacks….

      2. SMurphy says:

        Thanks for the reply Bill!

  5. Barry in Zeeland (currently in Florida Keys) says:

    Looks cold back home, but here in the Keys it was awesome today. 75, sunny, and almost no wind whatsoever. I’ve never seen the ocean so flat, calm, and totally clear. Took seadoos out riding and actually mingled with a pack of 20 dolphins for a while. Coolest thing ever. Not looking forward to coming home at the end of the week.

  6. B says:

    There are three different sunrise/sunset times on the weather page. Which one is correct?
    One says Sunrise 804, sunset 542
    One says sunrise 807 sunset 541
    One says sunrise 807 sunset 540

    ??????

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      The 8:04 am sunrise is off by a couple minutes. The other two are both correct, but one is the sunrise/sunset at the Ford Airport and the other is for downtown G.R. We use the airport when we can because that will update automatically and we won’t have to manually input it every day.

  7. fixxxer says:

    The winter that never ends*

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    More SNOW, COLD and SNOW is on the way!

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Get ready GR – the SNOWY pattern is about ready to make a BIG return!

  10. INDY says:

    Again Pot makes u lol!! Alcohol Kills!!! I know a Lot More Pot heads that get up everyday then Drunks!!!! INDYY……

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      For those who drink responsibly alcohol kills none. I like to have some beer at night to help wind down, and I get up every morning!!!

      1. INDY says:

        Well just facts Alcohol Kills!! Pot makes me eat more!! INDYY

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Thanks, Grady…a rise from -70 to -22 is a pretty good temp. rise for a winter day. Temperatures like that make it tough on animals.

      1. Grady Foster says:

        The elk, the deer, the bison and even the mountain goats come down into the valleys this time of year, looking for warmer temps and protection from the wind. The humans go up to the passes in their snowmobiles and start avalanches, which says an awful lot about who are the real intelligent creatures. By the way, thank for taking the cold snap east this week. Enjoy!

  11. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Well we’ll well my little weather hobos! Now your talkin bout something your ol uncle sparks can relate to and live by. My last check at the ol doc office my good ol doc said I’m in great health. He knows I’m a pot smoker and I tend to like my dark liquor. But I eat the finest meat and fish old hen nature can provide. Yes I have a twitch or two in the ol bones but your ol uncle sparks been chasing your ol aunty Edna’s tail all my life. I don’t need no purple pill to put a smile on your ol aunty Edna’s face! I should be the poster boy for all these states that r finally getting hip!

  12. Todd In Nunica says:

    sooo speaking of alcohol…is the snow done for tonight? Can I crack open a few?

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      You’re in the clear. Don’t forget to get up in the morning. Lol!

  13. INDY says:

    Bill I bet everybody has tried pot in there life time just ask slick willee!!! He smoke some!! INDYY..

    1. Jack says:

      Yeah, and CLINTON was 2- DUMB to INHALE !! Duhhhh….stay cued !!

    2. ER From GR says:

      I have never tried it in my life!!! INDYY!!! I need to get ahold of you to plan my Bachelor party!!! 38 days and counting!!!

  14. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Pot, you big city lights got to run around the back ally’s to buy your so called smoke. But since your ol dr sparks has become a care giver I’ve not only been able to grew some of thee finest green around, but all of my patients are feeling a hell of a lot better than when the modern medicine folk had Em on numerous amounts of pills. This natural erb like wan veldez the coffee guy. Pot, I’ve been smoking the giggle grass for a long long long time.

    1. Jack says:

      Preach It…..Uncle SPARKEEE !! ;-) . Stay cued. ;-)

  15. ron(wayland) says:

    Bill are you on board with Joe B that this cold pattern is going to flip and March will be above normal?

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I sure hope he says yes.

      1. Judy (Fennville) says:

        Me too!!!

  16. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Dr wan sparkee Valdez is open for business!! Heheee hee oh you big city hobos make me laugh. Even tokes the blood hounds howlin!!!!

  17. INDY says:

    Uncle sparkee u do have some good green every time u light up I can smell it out thee YARDofBRICKS I can’t wait to burn one with u this summer!! Bring me a QP would u!!!!!! Trade me some sprites for your mean greens!! INDYY

  18. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Too bad this snow isn’t going to last long. Those 2 bands just converged right over our area, and was snowing at an inch an hour snowfall rate. Everything is covered, and its very windy from the east. We snowmobiles 100 more miles today, and the trails were AMAZING. It was a little thinner in Barry County compared to here in Allegan County like it always is. The trail has about a 4″ hard base, and some of the open fields are bare dirt just a few feet from the trail from yesterday’s wind. Sure looks to be a really good stretch of snowmobiling weather. Definitely a top 5 snowmobiling winter already.

  19. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Dr wan sparkee veldez hopes the state is kind enough to give me back my license. If so I will take one trip south this summer even tho I hate seeing the cement jungle. I will load mamaa and tokes up and we come visit you nephew Indy. Last time I came to the big city you took me to see the Detroit cowboy. We smoked pot and watched all the crazy women get loose. Some were even my type. Heeheehe

    1. Jack says:

      ” Cement, Clay,and Glass” CUE….New Riders of The Purple Sage !!! Remember This tune ?? Uncle sparks!

  20. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    On a lighter note as compared to my previous run-on post, the upcoming weather looks quite nice for winter lovers. Lots of very cold temperatures, repeated chances of accumulating snow, and nothing even close to the freezing mark. The way winter should be!

  21. Justin says:

    Bill, Ottawa County closes at -15 wind chill. What are the odds for Tuesday or Wednesday closings this week?

  22. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We picked up a quick half inch of snow tonight when that band went through. Looks like Illinois and NW Indiana are already getting hammered with lake effect. There should be some pretty healthy snow totals down there.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      It’s so weird that Chicago, and the other side of the lake have been getting the brunt of the lake effect this winter, the wind direction has been unusual this winter

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        How so? I have 40+” more than anywhere in Illinois. They have just had a couple significant lake effect events.

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          I know, I’m just saying we’ve had more lake enhancement than lake effect it’s self

  23. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The 00Z GFS still gives areas north of Grand Haven 10-12″ of snow by Saturday evening, looks like 3-6″ for Wednesday into Thursday and then another 3-6″ on Saturday, with locally more possible

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Sounds good! I went for a walk tonight and it was a bit too cold though…

  24. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

    Imagine this retard still living in your basement at your expense. Oh wait it will be “our” expense I’ll bet his parents are proud as peacocks http://youtu.be/cXmkJezrAU8

    By the way, its cold in Pentwater.

    1. Jack says:

      You used that Yesterday…wbwtsbc… Dr. Sanjay Gupta: Why I changed my mind on weed – CNN.com
      http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/08/health/gupta-changed-mind-marijuana/
      Aug 8, 2013 – Over the last year, Dr. Sanjay Gupta has been working on a new documentary called “Weed.” The title “Weed” may sound cavalier, but the …
      Stay cued, Yes I USE for Medicinal Purposes !! And I am Over 21 & 58 to be Exact !! Please Don’t Compare Me to That VIDEO!!! Thanks, and God Bless ;-)

      1. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

        Jack, I think if Jack Daniels is leagal, Pot should be legal. And your not fooling anyone,I know that after watching that video you wish you could have given that kid a HIGH five. He was putting on a clinic in that video. Still dumb as hell though.

  25. INDY says:

    2* out thee YARDofBRICKS its cold!!!!! INDYY….

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