Morning Pictures and Long Range

January 21st, 2014 at 12:20 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

shn glerl   muskegon glerl Chicago glerl Here’s some pics. this AM from the GLERL cameras in S. Haven (see the 2 people walking out on the ice), the Muskegon Channel (some open water) and Chicago (where they had 7″ of new snow yesterday evening).   Long-range outlook:  All the models are colder than average for this week and next in Michigan.  The CFSvf2 is cold for the next three weeks and pretty much thru most of February.  The European model is cold for this week and next and is now trending colder for week 3.  Hinting at a break in about 3 weeks is a ridge that is expected to form in the Bering Strait.  Often a ridge in the Bering Strait corresponds to a ridge in the eastern U.S….but there’s more suggesting the cold sticks around than suggesting a pattern break to warm.   From Joe Bastardi:  “The 12z run of the GFS is as outrageous as I have ever seen for cold. I have a tough time believing it can stay that cold for that long.”   Interesting low temp. tonight from the RUC model:  +5 Muskegon, -7 for G.R. around midnight, -16 for Lansing and Mt. Pleasant.  WOW, the morning run of the GFS plot doesn’t give G.R. anything warmer than 26 deg. in the next 15 days!  It’s overdone, but still!!  It’s not just the cold, it’s the length of time we sit in this Arctic air!  It’s relentless.  The 384-hr. GFS has a snowstorm for us…but way too far out (2/5-7) to get excited about.  Here’s Chicago area snow totals.

In other news:  Look at the difference in one hour as the snowstorm moves into New York.   Huge storm w/ hurricane force winds north of Hawaii will bring some of the biggest waves in a decade, up to 50ft to Aloha state!  Here’s the Hawaii surf forecast.  The temperature could be 16-22 with a wind chill of 0 to +5 for the Super Bowl.

150 Responses to “Morning Pictures and Long Range”

  1. HBO (Interlochen) says:

    Measured 30 inches of snow on the deck last night. Well pipe housing stands at 17in tall, have not seen it since before xmas. Excellent winter so far, hoping for some more powder!!

  2. Brian(Grandville) says:

    So where is that huge storm in the Pacific going to end up?

  3. WswPlz says:

    So in the third picture, is that ice connected/ solid sheet or ice flow.???

    1. WswPlz says:

      Open the rabbit whole vortex, as many will be sucked in……

    2. yooper4021 says:

      Cool

      1. WswPlz says:

        You like the article yooper?

        1. yooper4021 says:

          Didn’t read it, you?

        2. WswPlz says:

          Question with a question for an answer hmmmm… Kidding, yes I read the article…

        3. WswPlz says:

          Omg, I thought you said did you read it? Gosh I’m dyslexic….

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Hottest non-El Nino year on record.

      And even more impressive, solar activity was the lowest in decades. So much for that theory.

      1. Jacob G. says:

        Like i mentioned before to you low solar doesn’t cause immediate change in surface temperatures. You have to cool the oceans first before any significant impacts to global surface temperatures. Also to say the solar activity is in the lowest in decades is understatement. We are going into a quiet period similar to what we had 200 years ago.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          Yep, all too often we only calculate land temperature and forget most of the world is water.

          Good reading material hot off the presses:

          http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/NOAA_NASA_2013_Global_Temperatures_Joint_Briefing.pdf

        2. Michael g (se gr) says:

          Yeah, that’s convenient. We don’t even have to measure the deep sea temps. Just make an estimate to fit our theory, then use the fact it fits as proof. That was easy!

        3. arcturus says:

          If you believe the comments here there’s a bunch of people who know more than NASA. What an informed group!

      2. Jacob G. says:

        So why do they use 1951-1980 as their period for departure from average? Seems really they use the coldest 30 year period in the last 100 years, doesn’t?

        1. Jacob G. says:

          * really odd

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Excellent question.

        3. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Crickets again, imagine that.

      3. Robert (Plainwell) says:

        Yep real easy to get that when the tampering with data continues unbated.

        http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/just-hit-the-noaa-motherlode/

      4. yooper4021 says:

        OK…just like the last few times one of these reports has been published…I’ll try again.

        You like to debunk other theories….so what is your theory?

        1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

          It must be really baking somewhere not West Michigan because the weather to me is still exactly the same as it has been. I haven’t noticed a change here.

        2. yooper4021 says:

          Crickets and more crickets. Try to ask a question, and watch ‘em run and hide. Who knew??

    4. Bill Steffen says:

      NASA clearly shows that there has been no warming since 2002: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif Please, no new, big tax hikes to try and make it colder than this!!

      The poor animals are having a tough time coping with all this cold and snow.

  4. INDY says:

    Cold Cold Cold Cold Cold !!!!! No Rody about it!!!! INDYY!!!!

    1. WswPlz says:

      Indy’s track open for racing yet?? Or to much snow and cold at thee yard,of bricks.??

  5. Zach says:

    Video of the snow in Chicago last night… nearly twenty inches are being reported just east of Chicago from their lake effect snow.

    http://stormchasermovies.com/heavy-lake-effect-snow-slamming-chicago/

    1. WswPlz says:

      Wow, Yes please….20+

  6. yooper4021 says:

    Record January snow in Detroit and Flint? Maybe…

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=99811&source=0

    Courtesy of Marquette NWS – the last day an above-freezing temperature was observed at their office was December 5, a streak of 47 days (12th longest on record). They could very easily move into the top 3 (59 days), although the all-time record (72 days) might be a stretch.

  7. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    WOW!!

    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
    1259 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

    ..TIME… …EVENT… …CITY LOCATION… …LAT.LON…
    ..DATE… ….MAG…. ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
    ..REMARKS..

    1250 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 SE EAST CHICAGO 41.62N 87.41W
    01/21/2014 E18.0 INCH LAKE IN PUBLIC

    17 TO 18 INCHES STORM TOTAL SO FAR AT GARY
    AIRPORT…KGYY. REPORTED BY THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF THE
    AIRPORT. ALL OF THE SNOW HAS FALLEN SINCE 730 TO 8AM.
    ESTIMATED VISIBILITY AT TIME OF REPORT 750 FEET.

    1. yooper4021 says:

      WOW – that is crazy!

      So… it looks like the snow forecast wasn’t that far off after all. A very modest change in wind direction, and Berrien Co could have been clobbered too.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Well the forecast started as 12-24, then 10, then 6, then nothing. I think the reason they were downplaying snowfall in our area over time was because the band had a higher probability of affecting NE flow areas rather than N flow areas as opposed to earlier thoughts.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I’m sure there are many reasons they fine tuned their forecast as they got closer to the event.

  8. Jack says:

    SURE is Nice, To See The ” Colors of The SUN” Cue, Old Jackson Browne :::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpAqo1MvL3U. :-) . Stay Cued!!

  9. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Probably the one time in my life I think it would be cool to be in Gary right now.

    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
    CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON… BRINGING STORM TOTAL SNOW
    ACCUMULATIONS TO 6 TO 20 INCHES…LOCALLY AROUND 2 FEET… BY
    EVENING.

  10. Ned S. (Now in South Holland) says:

    Lake effect will become less of a factor for us in west Michigan as the lake continues to freeze over.

    1. Deb says:

      +1 TRILLION

      1. Heat Miser says:

        With the temps coming over the next two weeks and low winds…that coverage will grow very quickly.

    2. Tom in Alger Heights says:

      As I mentioned the other day, I was at the Grand Haven State Park between sales appointments. There were people walking on the ice beyond the pier. I drove up Prospect which overlooks the park. The ice only extends about a quarter mile offshore. There is plenty of open water from what I could see from my vantage point both north and south of Grand Haven. Not sure the lake will freeze over based on my observations.

      1. Deb says:

        So if there is not enough ice coverage right now to affect the lake effect snow we can and will get. How far must the ice extend out to make it a factor in how much lake effect snow?

  11. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Although I think the Euro is too high on the snowfall prediction for the next 10 days, I like that we are back in the possibility of getting burried in snow. For anyone that hasn’t seen it, the 12Z gives the east side ~6″, east of US-131 6-12″, and west of US-131 12-20″.

  12. Brad says:

    Ludington received a quick 4″ snow overnight from that lake effect band.

    On another note, Joe Bastardi continues with the cold hyperbole. How many model runs has this guy pimped over the past two weeks? Where is the legendary cold to rival 1985?

    1. Jacob G. says:

      After January is done the numbers will look pretty close to Jan 85/94 in terms of departure from averages in some local and regional areas. While maybe not a similar “outbreak” like 85 but in terms of averages over the month yeah it could be similar. However even Joe has stated some of these models, including the ensembles are over doing it. At some point the cold has to ease and relax and we will get in a more zonal flow for while.

    2. yooper4021 says:

      For every Bastardi, there’s a Weather Channel.

    3. Michael g (se gr) says:

      More importantly, where is the monster ridge and the 60′s and 70′s YOU forecast???

  13. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    On The Weather Channel a scientist was saying that California’s drought is a result of global warming. You have to be kidding me!!

  14. Jack says:

    >>>>> BREAKING NEWS>>>>>>> ” Al Gore is on Line# 1″”" Don’t Answer IT !!!! Lol.. Stay Cued !! ;-)

  15. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    >>DISCLAIMER>> For those that do not like SNOW opening these links may be hazardous to your health! Open at your own risk!!!!!

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      The NWS seems to be disagreeing with the models because the cold air may affect flake size. We will have to see who is right…

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes, it will be interesting to monitor!

    2. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

      When??

  16. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    NWS says the heaviest snow for this clipper system will be north of Muskegon, so it looks like it will miss our area for the most part. Maybe an inch or two west of US-131. A better chance of snow comes later in the week when we could see 2-5 inches of snow, with the 5 inches being north of 1-96.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The 18Z RDB model gives GR a good 3 inches of SNOW from the Wednesday clipper! Get ready people!

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        3 inches of snow… what a whooper haha! Rocky aren’t you used to the snow by now, having nearly 5 feet of snow this season and all?

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          These 2-4 inch events are perfect and can really add up. Keep em coming! 3 inches on Wednesday, then about 5 inches on Saturday and then a TON of COLD and SNOW next week! It does not get better than this!

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Yeah, true. Remember in December when we had 2-4 inches every day (and a few times with 6-7 inches)! That was awesome!

  17. Jacob G. says:

    Really surprised NWS GRR didn’t mention much about the winds coming up on this Friday/Saturday clipper event. Could be down right blustery with a lot of snow and blowing snow around.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Near blizzard conditions are on the way!!!!!!!!

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      The discussion looked a little rushed and not full of detail. They left many things out this time, but thats fine since they have been working very hard this winter so far. We will have to depend on other sources until tomorrow when they get a better grasp on the systems.

      1. Jacob G. says:

        Good point, it did seem a bit rushed. I agree overall they have done a great job this year and have been busy for sure.

      2. WswPlz says:

        They did mention the possible winds in earlier discussions( discussion #6) not sure if they rushed, or left it out for other reasons. They mentioned the Saturday/Sunday system could be rather blustery with blowing snow. As you stated, I guess we shall see.

    3. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I would not be surprised if by tomorrow or Thursday they have more detail , the winds will be very strong with blowing and drifting snow along with near to whiteout conditions, defiantly advisory criteria for now, we’ll see what Friday brings

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        It should definitely be a WWA, however that does not mean the NWS will issue a WWA! Look how many times this year they have missed the boat on these decisions already! In fact a WWA will probably be needed for the event tomorrow at least for the Ottawa and Muskegon Counties!

      2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Yeah, if the winds are strong enough (as models are showing) and the snow is still expected (why wouldn’t it be?) then a WWA would definitely be issued for at least the two lakeshore rows of counties.

  18. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Can anyone say the COLD and SNOW is on the way! I love it and keep it coming. ROCK n ROLL will never die!!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

    1. Jack says:

      ” Long Live Rock” !!! WHO, Knew ? CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDoq6GkdkJs. Crank it UP!!!! ;-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        These guys may have on some heavy duty drugs, but that is a classic Rock n Roll song and perfect for this blog, because the COLD and SNOW lives on and on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  19. Michael g (se gr) says:

    GR NWS uses “polar vortex” AND “arctic dagger” in their discussion. I like it.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Agreed and it doesn’t get much better than that – throw in about 12-18 inches of SNOW over the next week or so and we will really have a WINTER WONDERLAND!!!! I love it!

  20. John (Norton Shores) says:

    I’m going to be Rocky for a second, by Friday Kent and Muskegon counties will be under a winter weather advisory!!!
    Love it!

    I like having you on the blog Rocky, you always have spirit when it comes to snow!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I like it John and look what I just posted a little bit above yours!! Too funny!

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      John Dee has 4-8″ For South Haven to Ionia to the north on Friday-Saturday, that is defiantly advisory criteria combined with blowing snow, I think there’s no doubt that we’ll be under a WWA unless things change by Friday

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        NWS is going with 2-5, so they seem pretty unsure right now. John Dee is definitely expecting a fairly moderate storm to hit.

      2. John (Norton Shores) says:

        I think it would be more on the order of 4-6″, but still I would expected moderate accumulations when you combine lake effect and a clipper

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Who knew?

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Didn’t we just hear that a week or so ago?

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        No it was about 3 1/2 weeks ago and then we got hammered with COLD and SNOW, so get ready!

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Yes, I trust the real time radar only now. Everything else is just a pipe dream to me.

      3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Nope it was last week. I just re-read the comments on 1/13. Close, but no cigar.

  21. INDY says:

    let it snow let it snow let it snow!!! Winter storm watches coming!! Stay tuned!! INDYY!!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock On INDYY!

  22. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Guess what? We are back on a COLD and SNOWY pattern with no change in sight!

  23. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    If the NWS thinks the flake size will be too small to accumulate much tomorrow just take a look at Chi town baby!

  24. INDY says:

    I am so glad ROCKY your no snow pills went night night!! I am with u we have a very cold and snowy pattern coming up!!!!! INDYY..

    1. Jack says:

      Yeaaaaaa Indy…A CUE for The YARDofBRICKS , Where ” PARDISE” IS !!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__HPfmvaWRw. ENJOY!!! And Turnit UP!! ;-)

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes and we are transitioning right back into a SNOWY pattern, only this time it will be even better and we are still on track for 100+ inches of SNOW for GR! Mark it down people!!!

    3. WswPlz says:

      Indy, Rocky’s no snow pills are what is bringing the snow back, it was by design. Sometimes you have to stir up the snow mojo.

  25. Brian (Grandville) says:

    Snow starting to come on shore between Holland and Grand Haven now.

  26. Imthemom (just n holland) says:

    Bill, thanks for the pictures. I worry about the one from Grand Haven. My husband who grew up in Holland warned me to never walk on the ice out by the piers as it was dangerous. Of coarse this is same man that told me the first time I saw a blueberry picker that it was used by a man sitting up on top with a rifle to shoot the rattle snakes out of the blueberry brushes. That’s why the sides of the machine were slanted and smooth, so the snakes couldn’t climb up.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Yeah becuase this freezing cold is “fun”. Its overstayed its welcome.

  27. Stevekentcity says:

    We won’t get crap for snow sorry lol

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Shhh, don’t burst their bubble lol.

    2. WswPlz says:

      Unfortunately you may be correct.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes he is correct – grap won’t be coming down, however he is 100% wrong about the SNOW not coming! He will be in for a rude awaking by Sunday AM! Winter Wonderland is here to stay!!!!!!!!!

        1. WswPlz says:

          I hope you are on the money!

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      I hope it doesn’t snow crap…

    4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      In your fantasy land dreams!!!!!!!!!!!

  28. WswPlz says:

    Rocky has been on a top secret covert operation to bring the Snow back to the Cold, so we can have SNOW AND COLD again to all southern lower Michigan. Just in case people didn’t understand the ” Debbie downer ” approach if you will, it was all by design!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      + one trillion!

  29. fixxxer says:

    Comeon spring! Right rj?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Ya in about 3 months if you are lucky! Winter is just getting revved up baby!!

    2. Dan says:

      fixxxer I can’t even believe you are saying c’mon spring. You dont’t like the weather ,any weather!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes is the Spring it will be too cold, too wet, too windy and not enough thunderstorms, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc!!!!

  30. Dan says:

    Snow, Snow, Snow, Cold and then, More Snow! Yes bring time to make up for lost time!

  31. Jack says:

    All This COLD, is Certainly a DO, DO, Do, Do, ” Heart Breaker”. CUE, The STONES ::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PMSDw0LKm0. ;-) . Stay Cued , ;-)

  32. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep it coming – the more COLD and SNOW the better! It is winter people – get outside and enjoy the weather!!!!

  33. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Big game tonight. GO STATE!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Now that I can agree with!

    2. WswPlz says:

      Are they still ranked # 4

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Yes, U of M back in the top 25 now too.

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        #3 in both polls behind Arizona and Syracuse.

  34. INDY says:

    My wife just called from east Lansing she can’t even get dinner because of the game going on nobody can afford to go so they all sit on there buts and watch the game from restaurant drinking coffee all night, again what a dump I told her to lock the doors and order out!!!! INDYY……

    1. Jack says:

      Indy, Speaking of Basket Ball !!!! Remember This ole Cheech & Chong SONG ?? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIbp5C-5WXM. ;-) . GO SPARTY’S !!!! ;-)

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Jealousy ;)

    3. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Everyone will see significant snow this weekend!

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        I wouldn’t mind that at all. I just don’t feel safe enough predicting anything more then 2 days out anymore. When I wake up saturday morning I’ll give my prediction.

    4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      There’s plenty of room at McD’s. Shoot, it has two stories. Nice view upstairs. Classiest extra value meal she’ll ever have.

  35. Me :-) says:

    80 % chance of snow and 25 mph winds on Saturday? That might become a problem. Are we talking about accumulating snow for Saturday?

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Everyone will get accumulating snow on saturday but location wise it depends on how much you’ll get on Saturday, if your along and north of I-96 and west of US 131 on Saturday it looks like a decent event with SW flow lake enhancement that area could get 3-6″ or 4-8″, elsewhere it would be 1-4″ highest amounts near the lake

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        I have yet to hear one meteorologist say anything about accumulating snow, let alone EVERYONE, on Saturday but I admire your optimism.

      2. John (Norton Shores) says:

        And don’t you look at the NWS they are full of metrologist and guess what they mentioned accumulating snow Saturday

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          *meteorologist

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I hadn’t read the afternoon update until just now. Ah, they’re calling for another mediocre 2-5 event but most off to the north.

        3. John (Norton Shores) says:

          We’ll I still think you could get 1-2″ the most would be from Holland to Newaygo to the north

        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I think it’s just too far out to make any sort of prediction. Last week, many of Bill’s Blog’s finest were all fired up about that clipper. I saw predictions from 4 to 8 and some even in the double digits, but it was a total bust.

  36. Paco says:

    When is it going to be below -15 windchill? That is the best part of winter.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      The wind chill was -14 here this morning. Poor kids weren’t allowed to go outside for recess.

  37. This model shows a general 6-10″ for areas basically along and west of 131

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Over the next 5 days is what this model shows

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        That’s actually a 3 and a half day total

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          This is the NAM, the NAM only goes out to 84 hours

        2. Paco says:

          Actually a 3.66 day total.

        3. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Well either way near a 3.5 day total

        4. Ik this is the NAM it says it right on the map. And oops lol for some reason I was thinking 5, but that would be for 120hours. Ive never been good with the time-days conversion.

        5. John (Norton Shores) says:

          That’s okay Kyle haha, the GFS isn’t to far off from these totals so you were almost right about the 5 day total!

  38. If anyone has an Iphone and would like a good weather app, MyRadar is a good app. It shows you your current location. So if your a “Heavy lake effect snow band chaser” like me, this radar is perfect to show you your exact location compared to the snowband.

    1. Its kind of like a mini GPS in a way, because your current location dot on the map moves when you move

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Kyle, you’re not living until you have this. Yes, it’s $10, but well worth it.https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/radarscope/id288419283?mt=8

      1. Looks cool Brian! Thanks for sharing that one. Might have to look into getting that one as well!

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          I use it mostly for viewing rotating super cells, mainly out of state. The velocity graphics are amazing, not to mention everything else about it.

      2. DF (SE Mich) says:

        I agree with Brian, best radar app by far!

  39. Paco says:

    That’s creepy kyle

    1. Huh? That fact that I am a weather enthusiast that likes to witness weather not only from the computer but also in the field?

      1. Paco says:

        Iphone knowing exact location. I shut that off.

  40. Impy says:

    I love you Rocky.

  41. slimJim NW GR(1) says:

    I pad test for some reason have issues with I pad
    Slimjim

  42. Julie says:

    As usualy, Farmer’s almanac is way off…they were my lasting hope for January and February but doesn’t look even remotely true….

    http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/6

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