Season Snowfall, Model Data Update and Flood PotentialJanuary 29th, 2014 at 4:27 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the image to enlarge. This is snowfall for N. Lower Michigan so far this winter courtesy of the Gaylord NWS. They update the graph daily here. Traverse City is up to 102″, Petoskey to 124″ and Gaylord to 134″. Grand Rapids is up to 77.2″ (compared to 19.7″ at this point last winter). Even with average snowfall the rest of the winter, we’ll top 100″ in G.R. The first two weeks of February look cold. Muskegon is at 95.3″ with 25″ on the ground, Lansing is at 39.7″. Holland is up to 95.5 for the season. Detroit is going to have their snowiest month EVER! – probably over 40″. Flint will come close. Wellston in E. Manistee Co. is up to 129.6″. Delaware in the U.P. leads the pack with 222″ so far this winter. Overnight The Keweenaw County Road Commission advised that M-26 was closed between Eagle River and Eagle Harbor due to severe blowing and drifting snow. In the U.P., the Mont Ripley- closed yesterday due to low temperature. Mount Bohemia – is not just reporting excellent conditions, they are reporting “epic conditions”.
Our snow and cold continues…it’ll be breezy today with drifting snow and some light flurries, mainly in the AM, we’ll be 15-20 deg. this afternoon. The overnight run of the GFS-plot has the temp. in G.R. getting to the upper 20s Thurs. night, then no warmer than 21 thru 2/14. The model has 3 more mornings of zero and below in the next 2 weeks. I think that’s too cold, but still…wow! The European model would have an inch of snow Thurs. (more NW of G.R.), another 1/2 to 1″ Friday PM, 2″ Saturday with up to 4″ at the Indiana border. We get to the upper 20s Friday and that’s the warmest the European has to offer thru 2/5. Both models push the storm for the middle of next week mainly to our southeast and just keep us in the cold air with occasional lake-effect and weak clippers.
With the cold and deep snow cover, I remained concerned about spring flooding. Check out my previous blog on the earlier floods on the Grand River. Note that floods on the Grand have come in pairs (1904, 1905 and 1947, 1948)…so will we have a second flood in 2014? Also note that the flood last year was 33,700 cfs. We have had past floods significantly greater than that. In the 1904 flood, there was water covering most of downtown G.R. all the way west to John Ball Park – covering the entire West Side. A flood of the volume of 1904, 1905, 1947 or 1948 is certainly possible again.