Winter Weather Advisory

January 30th, 2014 at 2:46 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory  We have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 PM.  The advisory covers blowing and drifting snow this AM, then the snowfall that arrives from NW to SE across the area during the afternoon and evening.  Snowfall totals could reach 3-4″ north of  Muskegon with an inch or inch and a half southeast of Grand Rapids.  The wind will be a major player today, out of the south.  The GRR NWS discussion says:  ” THE COMBINATION OF  FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.  WHITEOUT TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN AT TIMES.”  Both the NAM and GFS models have the wind peaking around 4 – 5 pm at 24-26 mph with gusts in the 40 mph range.  That will cause a lot of blowing and drifting snow, especially on roads that run east-west.  The falling snow won’t start until this afternoon.  The worst will probably be from 3 – 8 pm.  Both the NAM (caribou) and the European give G.R. about an inch and a half of snow starting around 4 pm in G.R. (earlier to the northwest) and ending before daybreak on Friday.  Other snow totals off the NAM (caribou):  Ludington 2.8″, Muskegon 2.1″, Holland 1.6″, Kalamazoo 1.3″, Lansing 0.7″.  With the drifting, you’ll get more than that in your driveway.   The winds are much lighter on Friday, about 6-12 mph.  Saturday’s snowfall comes to 2.4″ for G.R. on the NAM (caribou).  The European prints out 0.37″ of precipitation – that would be about 5″ of snow falling from late Friday night (Friday evening should be dry) into Saturday.  The European also prints out 0.22″ for G.R. from the low pressure center that will pass southeast of us Tues. night into Weds. morning.  That would be another 3-4″ of snow with another push of Arctic air next Thursday.   We also have Gale Warnings for Lake Michigan today.  It’ll be interesting to see if the wind breaks up any of ice on the Great Lakes.         The GEFS has the cold weather hanging around into the 2nd week of February (and probably beyond).  233 miles now — all of Interstate 10 from Pensacola to E of Tallahassee closed due to extreme ice.  Here’s snow on the ground at the Augusta (GA) National Golf Club.

Afternoon HIGH (not low) temperatures:  43 Brownsville TX, 41 Galveston TX, 35 New Orleans, 31 Mobile AL, 30 Pensacola FL, 25 Dothan AL, 27 Albany and Macon GA, 32 Savannah GA, 30 Charleston SC, 37 Jacksonville FL, 48 Monterrey, Mexico (average high 70 – they were in the upper 80s on the 26th and 27th), 49 Saltillo, Mexico.  Temperatures held in the 60s down past Veracruz.

127 Responses to “Winter Weather Advisory”

  1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    Only 50 days til SPRING!!! :)

    1. WswPlz says:

      The countdown continues….pretty funny….must be long days for ya as of late…..when spring does eventually get here let’s hope the storms come with….

  2. Dan says:

    So 7 weeks left of cold and snow! I’ll take it! GR to reach 80 plus inches of snow by this weekend! Does the JEM still show a decent storm for early February?

  3. Bald Eagle (Montague) says:

    2-3 for me @ this point is child’s play! Haven’t heard much about this weekend storm or next week’s giving me much. Any opinions or models to support this? Thank you!

  4. Paco says:

    When is the next snow day for Grand Rapids please? Thank you to whomever can help. God bless.

  5. INDY says:

    LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET SNOW!! INDYY…..

  6. Dan says:

    Paco go to school. Even if they close, you need to be there!

  7. Michael g (se gr) says:

    Both the Saturday and Tuesday/ Wednesday storms are trending in the right direction!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      After next weeks storm it looks cold again.

  8. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

    Sounds like the Tuesday-Wednesday storm could be a real doozy if it tracks in our area….

  9. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Here is the 06Z GFS. Most of that is Saturday’s storm. Tuesday’s looks similar. The NAM is further south with the heaviest storm for Sat.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

  10. Dan(Wayne county) says:

    I was in the bullseye yesterday. Now I’m only getting 3-4 inches. I need a small shift back to the south

  11. Paul (Yankee Springs-Barry State Game Area) says:

    Jim…thats totals from today through 120 hr period ?

  12. Chip (Holland) says:

    I read the report from NWS and it said there would be some LE after the Saturday snow. I thought LE was greatly minimized when so much of the Lake is frozen. If someone is willing, can you explain it in layman’s terms? Thanks.

    1. Michael g (se gr) says:

      I’m guessing today’s strong winds will break up a good bit of the ice that’s out there.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      While there is a good amount of ice on the lake the winds will tent to break up some of the ice and push the ice that breaks up in the direction of the wind so today it could push the ice to the north. Also the wind should bring up the “warmer” water from the bottom to the surface. So there could be 33-36° water in the open areas.
      SlimJim

    3. Cort S. says:

      Only some lake effect. NWS’s forecast doesn’t seem to be hitting the snow chance very hard after the Saturday storm ends.

      Either way, a good portion of the lake is still open water. If you have an air mass moving across the lake that is already sufficiently cold, deep, and moist enough, it won’t take much help from the lake to get at least some snow out of it.

  13. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Our 0.1″ of snow should make it over here today to make it the snowiest month ever in Detroit.

  14. Amanda says:

    Growing up in Michigan, I always used my first robin sighting of the year to pinpoint the beginning of spring. Yesterday, I was shocked to see a fat robin sitting in my neighbor’s tree. I figured it was just a fluke and I wouldn’t see another until March or April. Lo and behold, this morning we had two more robins in our yard! I have never seen a robin in January before. Any idea why they are showing up so early? (Please say it’s because we’re going to have an early spring!)
    -Amanda in Holland

    1. suehelen says:

      Some of them never leave. We have a bunch of them in our area and have all winter.

      1. Amanda says:

        I sure am enjoying the sight of them. It’s like having a little bit of spring! Now if only this 4 ft of snow would melt…

  15. Dan says:

    Hey Chip. I believe Rocky made some observations about this. The Lake still has some open water. I realize with the extreme cold it is a lot more frozen. I’m thinking that the open water that remains is enough to generate LES!
    This is not to discredit Bill in any way! He makes his calls right on the money.
    Ok Chip? Kind of ironic where are talking about ice and your name is Chip! Break up the ice into chips…hahaha. Ok, not so funny!

    1. DJ2450 says:

      I think the LE will be minimized but not eliminated. The visible satellite loop from yesterday showed some open water. If I had to guess I would say 60% to maybe 70% open between Milwaukee and Muskegon. Another indication LE will be reduced is the lake is not warming the air as much as it did just 1 week ago. Yesterday when the wind was west the tempuratures were in the mid teens in Milwaukee and only rose from 1 to 3 degrees as the air crossed the lake to Muskegon.

    2. Chip (Holland) says:

      Yea, I am a chip off the ol block… of ice :)

      Thanks for the replies and info.

  16. DF (SE Mich) says:

    A very cool picture of a iceboat (sailboat) offshore of Toronto.
    http://sailinganarchy.com/2014/01/28/i-skyline/

  17. dereks says:

    Is anybody getting any wind right now? It’s seems pretty calm in northeast Montcalm county.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Pretty breezy here. Guessing 20-25 mph gusts.

  18. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Had a nice red/orange tint to the sky and snow cover earlier and now that has just given way to generally cloudy skies. I am a little colder then the airport this AM as I have a temp of 16° and the airport is reporting 20°. I now looks like GR will go over 80” of snow fall for the season this week. I must say that is more then I thought GR would get this whole winter season. It now looks like GR has a very good shot of getting over 100” of snow this winter. The odd thing about that is that in the recorded snow fall history of GR there have only been 7 winters that have recorded over 100” and the first one was not until 1951/2 and if we go over 100” this winter it will make it the 4th time since 1991/2 and in that time we had two more that fell just short at 98” one has to wonder if we are getting more snow now or is it the way it is measured?
    SlimJim

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      BTW here is a list of the winter seasons with 100” or more (note that this is the snow fall for the season there would be more years if a calendar year was used0

      1951/2 132.0”
      1958/59 104.7
      1964/5 101.4
      1970/1 101.0
      2001/2 105.3
      2007/8 107.0
      2008/9 104.9
      2013/4 ????? Maybe!

      SlimJim

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          Thanks
          SlimJim

        2. Ben (Charlotte MI) says:

          Interesting. A general upward trend in snowfall since 1950 is noticeable on that graph.

      1. Hudsonville Barn Cat says:

        What happened in 1951/52 that I’ve never heard about? That’s an incredible amount of snow. Big storms or consistent smaller precipitation? Wonder if anyone on this blog remembers that year.

        1. Imthemom (just n holland) says:

          Oh thank God, a year I don’t remember

  19. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    The NWS is anticipating strong winds for everyone mid afternoon: should be interesting!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      They’re forecasting gusts as high as 30 mph for my area.

  20. Not much talk this morning about 40 to 50mpn like last night

    1. suehelen says:

      I’m keeping my fingers crossed they’ve blown this call. I would like to see the kids go to school tomorrow!

  21. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Right now it looks like the Saturday storm will at least be watch/warning criteria from 96 to the south and advisory criteria between 96 and us 10

  22. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    I’m currently at 60″ for January, and 103.5″ for the winter. Bloomingdale is at 70″ for January, and 116″ for the winter. I wonder how many locations in the snow belt area will hit 150″+ this winter? Both the latest runs of the GFS and NAM have upped the snowfall totals through Saturday. A solid 6-10″ south of I-96 through Saturday seems plausible.

    1. Heat Miser says:

      NWS has updated my grid this morning and has gone from 2 inches tonight down to 1 and from 5 on Saturday down to 3 and I live on the lake shore. Don’t know which model they are trusting for these storms.

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        Where at on the lake shore? The heaviest snow for Saturday looks to be farther SE as of right now.

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      2008-09 we had 144″

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        I wish I would have recorded my snowfalls for that winter. I bet I was somewhere close to that number as well.

  23. Brian(Grandville) says:

    12Z GFS gives everyone in the southern 2/3 of Michigan a pretty good storm on saturday now. Still won’t believe it till I see it.

  24. GFS has move the heaviest snows north for the Saturday storm. Not sure it will be warning type snows but a solid advisory with 3-6 or 4-6 south of a Hart to Pinconning line with the heaviest from Charlotte to Alma band with St johns to Lansing looking to be in the bulls-eye

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      It has a solid 8-10″ in the bullseye area. NAM still keeps the heaviest snow across far southern lower MI.

      1. Mike (southeast Berrien county) says:

        12Z GFS snowfall link?

      2. Yes there will be some amounts over 6 but not sure there will be a large enough area that the NWS would issue a watch, I would from Muskegon to Bay county south but that’s just me

        1. Mike (southeast Berrien county) says:

          Thanx!

  25. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The 12z GFS has a solid 5-10″ of snow for areas south of route 10 for the Saturday storm

  26. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Interesting stuff from NWS Northern Indiana:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/?n=2013_2014winter

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Nice info.

  27. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    GFS still has next weeks storm as well, but a moderate level snowstorm with primarily 6″ amounts for much of lower MI.

    1. A ways out yet but I think it will potentially be much bigger where ever it decides to hit.

  28. Power outage at my school!!!!!!

    1. Chrispy (Byron Center) says:

      Which building are you in Kyle? Are they sending you home? I have kids in 3 different buildings in Byron Center.

      1. I’m at the high school. It’s normal dismissal

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          All those snow days, otherwise they’d probably let you go.

  29. SW Kent says:

    GFS showing a MAJOR cold outbreak Feb 11,12, and 13.

    1. fixxxer says:

      I think we can kisas any kind of spring goodbye.

      1. SW Kent says:

        Fixxxer, I expect an early spring. Nice April ahead.
        Until then, live with a thankful heart!

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          The CPC, which take it as just above worthless, isn’t seeing an early spring.
          http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

    1. Jim in Delton says:

      Looks like we are in the bullseye of that graphic!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Its going to snow ;)

    1. shelbyville says:

      Sorry, link doesn’t work

  30. While I’m going to wait for the ECMWF to roll in, with the Canadian, GFS and NAM to a degree showing Saturdays storm north and with more snow, I will be updating my snowfall totals a bit and I do think will see a Winter Storm Watch for Saturday being issued by the NWS tomorrow morning assuming the models don’t jump ship overnight.

  31. Still no power at school. Going on for over an hour now. Can’t do nothing on class just sitting here relaxing

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      Must be that isn’t the same outage by 28th and 131 then.

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Why don’t they just let you out early?

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        I remember we sat around for 4 or 5 hrs one time. Never let us out. It only isolated to the high school and middle school across the parking lot.

  32. DF (SE Mich) says:

    This is a pretty cool interactive site to look at the weather models bundled together.
    http://forecast.io/lines/

  33. fixxxer says:

    This is just BS anymore.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        LOL – perfect Mark! keep up the good work!

  34. ECMWF shows a nice band of 6+ thru much of the GRR CWA with lots of 4″ amounts either side of it.

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      for Saturday?

      How about for Kazoo?

  35. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Better stock up the root brewskis

  36. ECMWF also shows another shift north with next weeks storm to center it over south central lower Michigan

    1. Brandon (Byron Center, Mi) says:

      Is it the low you are referring to? Or the precipitation?

  37. WickedTwister says:

    Alright I’m gonna throw out my guess (what I want to happen). I’m gonna say muskegon south on Saturday will get 6-10″ and the tue storm will trend stronger hence more NW with 12+ inches and blizzard conditions causing schools to be closed for at least 2 more days next week! Lol one can dream big ;) ! If this winter wants to be remembered it’s all how it finishes! Bring us ur worst!

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      The crazy thing is that is not a far-fetched “dream”. It looks like we’ll be seeing a lot of snow over the next 5 or 6 days, which will further stack those snow piles and cause more closings, delays, etc.

    2. At this point the winds don’t look that great for the Saturday storm

  38. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Even without blizzard conditions I think most schools will be closed next Wednesday, the heaviest of the snow will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and there’s no way the plows would be able to clean that mess up for the schools to be in progress

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I wouldn’t put to much money on anything that far out John. You should know that by now.

  39. John (Norton Shores) says:

    George Lessons still only says 2-4″ of snow for GR and 1-3″ for areas north of GR and over 6″ of snow near Jackson for the Saturday storm, I don’t think he has looked at the latest model runs

    1. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      That’s because WZZM prides itself on being the “most accurate” weather forecast…so by default, they have to go against the grain and hope it’s right. When they get lucky, they can then claim how accurate they are compared to other stations.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Very true!

    1. Brandon (Byron Center, Mi) says:

      Love it!!!

    2. Jenn (Orangeville) says:

      Holy Cow! That would be A lot of snow!

      1. WswPlz says:

        Holly s_ _ _!! Or cow… Now if only we can make that reality…

        1. Jenn (Orangeville) says:

          I was thinking the first phrase, but I cleaned it up for the “younger” crowd! LOL This will absolutely bury us if this comes to pass!

        2. WswPlz says:

          Haha…too funny, I was thinking just the same..I was questing if I would offend anyone…and still am, as I hope I did not…It was just the first true thought that came to mind, but i would normally sensor my speech….hehehe..

    3. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

      Oh My Is Right!

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        For ALOT of people lol

    4. Red in Allegan Co. says:

      I’m in the red part and that seems pretty scary to me. I don’t know where I’d put all that snow. And I live out in the country so I’m hoping it isn’t quite as brutal as that map depicts.

    5. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      This would put snow depths at levels that I’ve never seen in Lower Michigan. What are we, at around 20 inches deep over much of the SW Michigan?

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Much of lower Michigan has around 15-20″ snow cover with some 30-35″ areas

    6. Tom (North Holland) says:

      Is this the most recent run?

      1. Cort S. says:

        Yessir!

    7. Cort S. says:

      Looks like that includes both the Saturday snowstorm and the Tuesday night – Wednesday snowstorm. GFS and Euro models are pretty much in agreement for both of those.

  40. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Finally dug out some wood from under the snow to burn in the open fire place. Give the furnace a rest until later tonight. I went down stairs last night and thought I heard it cussing at me.

    1. WswPlz says:

      It’s nice your giving it a small break….lol

  41. Jack says:

    For What it’s Worth The Deer , in My Back are Very Active TODAY !!! Searching for Food While They Can . Big Storm on The WAY?? Stay CUEDD!!! ;-)

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      Seems like the bird feeders next door are quite active today also compared to other days. Turkeys were over here couple hours ago also looking for food.

      1. Jack says:

        Yup, Same Here. IMHO , The Critters are a Good Indicator of What’s Happening ” Weather WISE” ! Thoughts ? Hmmm ….stay Cued !

        1. WswPlz says:

          You know I was just thinking the last time I saw deer out and about was in early January…..hmmmmm

        2. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

          I agree that the critters know what’s coming in the weather department. They have really been hitting my feeders heavy today. Glad I can help them out by giving them seeds to eat in all this cold and snowy weather.

        3. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          They come out here, but at night. It’s hard to tell how many there is. I’ve seen atleast 5 or 6. Their tracks are all over the snow. Too bad their too spooked to come out in the day.

        4. Jack says:

          Same Here !! Deer must Know Feb. Is Going To Be a nasty Month. The Famous JEM model is STILL Tracking,Racking,and Stacking all it’s New Data. For The BIG PAPA SNOW STORM around FEB. 10th Stay CUED…… ;-)

    2. WswPlz says:

      I think it’s interesting how they see to come out all at once in large numbered groups. I won’t see them for weeks, except one or two, then like you said Jack, I guess they come out to get food while they can…. Maybe they know something we don’t…like possibly a few monster snow storms..a comin are way… :) . You ready Jack??

      1. WswPlz says:

        Ha..lol…I didn’t read past your first line until now about the storm coming…we must be thinking about the same thing….or wishing….Snow….snow…snow….

  42. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Starting to get some flurries here.

    Too bad they were DQ blizzards though. MMMMMmmmmmmmmm

  43. WswPlz says:

    I know this topic has been brought up more than once, and I really don’t mind it … But the debate about weather schools will close or not has now reached into the stratosphere…I think maybe it’s getting a little disproportionate to actual forecasting when people are guessing if school will be cancelled a week from now….lol…..I’m not in school anymore, so I understand it’s relevant to many young adults out there, but any topic can get exhausting when that’s 90% of the conversation on this type of blog. I know people are probably going to be adverse to my comment, but I’m just mentioning that it’s nice to have balance…..okay schools out, class dismissed….lol

  44. Cort S. says:

    So… it’s been 20 minutes, and no one here has mentioned the Winter Storm Watch.

    1. Cort S. says:

      …because of the new thread. D’oh.

      1. WswPlz says:

        See ya on the new thread… I did the same thing lol…

  45. Geneo Greenville says:

    Thing change real fast here.

Leave a Reply