Winter Storm Watch

January 31st, 2014 at 2:57 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

winter storm watch  advisory We have a Winter Storm Watch for the snow late Friday night (dry Friday evening) and Saturday.  The Watch covers Ottawa, Kent, Montcalm and Isabella counties to the south.  It also covers NW Indiana and all of NE Illinois.  Both the NAM (caribou) and GFS (caribou) give Grand Rapids 5.9″ of snow.  Here’s forecast snow for the next 84 hours from the NAM model and for the next 120 hours off the GFS model.  This is not lake-effect snow.  You can see the snow is pretty much the same bands on both side of the lake.  The European has 0.48″ precipitation and that would be at last 5″, so the models are in pretty good agreement.  The GFS (caribou) has all snow for most of the area, with a brief mix (rain, freezing rain/sleet at around 32 degrees) south of a line from Sturgis to just north of Jackson to Lake St. Clair.  The NAM (caribou) takes the mix farther north with the north edge of a brief period of mixed precipitation from Benton Harbor to Lansing.   On that model, the I-94 corridor could get 1/10th inch of freezing rain/rain/sleet.  Other snowfall totals off the NAM (caribou):  Lansing 6.1″, Muskegon 4.8″, Kalamazoo 4.7″ with about 4 hours of mix), Jackson 3.8″ plus 1/4″ of mix, Holland 5.6″ (all snow), S. Haven 5.5″ (all snow), Ludington 4.6″, Cadillac 3.6″, Mt. Pleasant 5.4″, Big Rapids 4.4″, Pontiac 5.2″ (plus some mix).   The GFS (caribou) totals – first number is Saturday snow, 2nd number is snow for next Tues. night:  Grand Rapids 5.9″, 3.3″…Lansing 6.7″, 3.6″…Muskgon 3.6″, 4.1″…Kalamazoo 8.9″, 3.5″…Jackson 6.4″ (tiny amount of mix), 3.6″…Pontiac 7.1″, 4.2″…Big Rapids 3.6″, 2.6″…Mt. Pleasant 4.6″, 2.8″…Cadillac 1.9″, 1.4″…Ludington 2.3″, 3.8″.   The European has high temps. of 13 for next Thurs. and 17 for next Friday.   The GFS plot has 12 and 15 for those two days…pretty cold.   The GFS plot has nothing higher than the low 30s thru Feb. 15.         Grand Rapids is now 6.6° colder than average for Jan. 2014, 10.2° colder than Jan. 2013 and 4.1° colder than average since Nov. 1.

Through Thurs., we’ve had 9 consecutive days with measurable snow and 13 consecutive days with below average temperatures (though with our high of 33 at 2 am, we may eek out a barely above average day today.  1.5″ of snow for G.R. yesterday brought our season total to 78.8″.  Muskegon added 1.2″ for a season total of 96.5″.   Lansing added just 0.3″ for a season total of 40.0″.

WOW!  15″ of snow in 3 hours!  Joe Bastardi says:  “Chicago,  first 10 days of Feb. could be 10°-15° below normal with 10-20 inches of snow.  -14° in Moscow, Russia on Thurs. – coldest day of the winter, so far.  61% of Great Lakes are covered in ice, the second highest coverage for the end of January in 30 years, Canadian Ice Service says…comparing Great Lakes ice cover to the 1970s.  PIc. of heavy snow (der schnee!) in the Austrian Alps.      Look at how fast the ice breaks up (mostly in 1/2 hour) on the Michigan City GLERL camera.

305 Responses to “Winter Storm Watch”

  1. D-dog says:

    I sure hope the majority of this snow misses as it appears it might on the radar. Sick of the snow and it is getting way out of hand, nowhere to push it anymore and every property needs a loader to stack and remove snow. Don’t understand how anyone wants 10 inches of wet/heavy snow to add to our already deep snowpack. Its mind boggling. Just need a break from it for a little while. Or spring can come too that would be much welcomed! Keep these stupid storms far far away.

    1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

      Dan…Looks like you may want to move south, becomes when it comes to winter weather your out of luck! Latest trends are continued cold/stormy right on through next month and maybe into march, both the Euro ond GFS are in good agreement that a colder weather pattern will continue! TWC hinted at this earlier today!

      1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

        I meant D-dog, sorry!

    2. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

      I agree with D-dog.

      I live about 6 miles SE of Saugatuck, about 6 miles from Lake Michigan (for lake effect). I have both a 3 year old two-stage snow blower and a 2 month old single stage. I drive an AWD Subaru Tribeca. I am easy walking distance from downtown and food and booze joints. I am retired, so I don’t *have* to go anywhere – except when it’s convenient.

      So these storms, this winter, doesn’t have much of an effect on me.

      I am honestly glad that some people can, are *able* to, enjoy this winter.

      But for other people’s sake, I can’t hope for more of the same. I feel for those who have to drive some distance to work, through drifts and white outs. For ladies who have to shovel early in the morning before they can leave. For those who have to drop kids off at the sitter’s. For the woman next door who tried to drive to work but had to turn around. For the guy across the street who couldn’t make it home from work. For some working parents on cancelled school days. For those who get stuck in the deep snow. For those who have had to face bitter cold winds. For those who lost power for extended periods of time. Etc. Etc. For all those for whom this weather is a hardship.

      Being retired, maybe I have too much time to worry about other people.

      But for their sakes, I would like to see this weather stop. Enough already.

      1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

        Nicely put Dikehopper.

    3. Me :-) says:

      I hope so too D-Dog. I had to clear my drive way every single day this week. I am tired of snow. I am tired of cold. I am tired of slippery roads. I am tired of being tired. I pray for an early spring.

  2. fred says:

    How come INDY is never around to eat crow about his latest snow warning/disaster earlier prediction? LOL

    1. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

      Hard to eat when you’re busy drinking.

  3. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

    I looked up the definitions of watch, advisory and warning a couple of weeks ago. I think it was at the NWS.

    They could have used better, plain English but as I understood it, it’s kinda like this. Watch = maybe. Advisory = probably. Warning = it’s gonna happen.

    Am I wrong?

    1. Cort S. says:

      Advisory: Inconvenient conditions expected soon or occurring (dangerous if you’re really stupid/negligent about it.)

      Watch: Dangerous conditions possible, stand by for any warnings or advisories that come out when the storm system gets closer.

      Warning: Dangerous conditions expected soon or occurring.

        1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

          Thank you, Cort. That helps a lot.

          Though one aspect may be hard to remember.

  4. kevin. w says:

    The new monthlies look good for snowstorms..rainstorms..floods…severe storms/tornadoes. Lots of storms on the maps and will start of with tons of damage to roofs with the weight then will have flooded basements and streets then will transition to severe weather. I did mention maybe another icestorm in there as well with lots of power outages. Then will have severe weather with lots of tree damage and destruction to buildings and many..many weeks without power and the kids will have school til middle of July. Awesome pattern shaping up its going to be one major problem after another. The weather channel/accuweather are both saying that this could be one of the most active weather patterns shaping up in long time from now through the spring months. Can’t wait for the fun to start.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Are you like 3 years old? You call that fun?

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        He’s over exaggerating fixxxer

      2. kevin. w says:

        Ya I’m older than you, fix.

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Good one kevin!

        2. fixxxer says:

          Then act it.

      3. Jordan (Twin Lake) says:

        Go pick her up fixxx!

        1. fixxxer says:

          Pick who up? You alternet persinality deb?

        2. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Your wife!! ;-)

    2. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

      Kevin…That is all true, all the models are hinting at continued cold with a more active weather pattern.

      1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

        Except for the weeks without power ant stuff like that it is for the most part true, but the more active weather pattern does sound like fun!

  5. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    What are the latest model runs saying?

    1. kevin. w says:

      One storm after another now that the western ridge is gone and the southern jet gets ramped up.

  6. kevin. w says:

    I’m just telling ya that it really looks like a very active pattern going through probably into May this year. We may have storms that could be on the extreme side. One thing will be dependent on the southeast ridge and some indications that it may set up shop early allowing bigger storms to cut up through the great lakes. Whether it snow, rain, or severe weather its looking like a pretty stormy pattern coming. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a major snowstorm followed my a major rain event/flooding. Just my opinion and fix I would really like a dump truck for my 3rd birthday, thanks.

  7. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    What are the latest model runs saying? NWS Northern Indiana has me in an advisory for 5-7 inches of snow and a tenth of an inch of ice.

      1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

        Jeremy based on latest models that looks about right!

        1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

          So the models are trending South a little?

        2. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Nope Jeremy, you have always ben in the 5-7″ range, the 18Z GFS didn’t do much changing, you still look good for at least 6″ or more

        3. John (Norton Shores) says:


        4. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

          The forecast model they’re showing on News 8 switches me over to rain.

    1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      But then, that depends on what news station you watch. The South Bend stations keep me all snow.

  8. kevin. w says:

    With the ice mixture that tells you the pattern is changing. Hang on.

  9. John (Norton Shores) says:

    18Z GFS still has next weeks storm with a solid 6-8″ of snow across the whole area

  10. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

    Next weeks storm bears a lot of watching due the fact the slightest change in track could mean snow or significant icing!

    1. kevin. w says:

      Just keep counting..storm..storm…storm…you get the idea.

  11. Looks like a good 8″ for me!

  12. Mark says:

    So what’s the general timeline for tomorrow’s snow? Flurries begin overnight, heavier snow when??

    1. Jevon Murphy (Chicago) says:

      Late morning/early afternoon.

      1. WswPlz says:

        Jevon my friend, hope your doing well….so I have to give you some props for nailing the weather as of late…you have been callin um one after another……so your thoughts on this storm for tomorrow, as it pertains to snow production….I know your in Chi- Town now, but what are your thoughts for GR/ Rockford area……?? Also your thoughts for Tuesday, or is that one to iffy as of yet?

  13. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    New thread.

  14. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

    I would like to add one thing to my post above.

    For those who enjoy, look forward to, more storms, more snow and/or cold, more broken records, do not forget those who have a hard time handling it. It may be a single mom, it may be an elderly, it may be…

    Look for them. Get out of your truck, get out of your house, get away from your computer, and go help them.

    You will most likely get more out of that than the weather.

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