Winter Storm WatchJanuary 31st, 2014 at 2:57 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
We have a Winter Storm Watch for the snow late Friday night (dry Friday evening) and Saturday. The Watch covers Ottawa, Kent, Montcalm and Isabella counties to the south. It also covers NW Indiana and all of NE Illinois. Both the NAM (caribou) and GFS (caribou) give Grand Rapids 5.9″ of snow. Here’s forecast snow for the next 84 hours from the NAM model and for the next 120 hours off the GFS model. This is not lake-effect snow. You can see the snow is pretty much the same bands on both side of the lake. The European has 0.48″ precipitation and that would be at last 5″, so the models are in pretty good agreement. The GFS (caribou) has all snow for most of the area, with a brief mix (rain, freezing rain/sleet at around 32 degrees) south of a line from Sturgis to just north of Jackson to Lake St. Clair. The NAM (caribou) takes the mix farther north with the north edge of a brief period of mixed precipitation from Benton Harbor to Lansing. On that model, the I-94 corridor could get 1/10th inch of freezing rain/rain/sleet. Other snowfall totals off the NAM (caribou): Lansing 6.1″, Muskegon 4.8″, Kalamazoo 4.7″ with about 4 hours of mix), Jackson 3.8″ plus 1/4″ of mix, Holland 5.6″ (all snow), S. Haven 5.5″ (all snow), Ludington 4.6″, Cadillac 3.6″, Mt. Pleasant 5.4″, Big Rapids 4.4″, Pontiac 5.2″ (plus some mix). The GFS (caribou) totals – first number is Saturday snow, 2nd number is snow for next Tues. night: Grand Rapids 5.9″, 3.3″…Lansing 6.7″, 3.6″…Muskgon 3.6″, 4.1″…Kalamazoo 8.9″, 3.5″…Jackson 6.4″ (tiny amount of mix), 3.6″…Pontiac 7.1″, 4.2″…Big Rapids 3.6″, 2.6″…Mt. Pleasant 4.6″, 2.8″…Cadillac 1.9″, 1.4″…Ludington 2.3″, 3.8″. The European has high temps. of 13 for next Thurs. and 17 for next Friday. The GFS plot has 12 and 15 for those two days…pretty cold. The GFS plot has nothing higher than the low 30s thru Feb. 15. Grand Rapids is now 6.6° colder than average for Jan. 2014, 10.2° colder than Jan. 2013 and 4.1° colder than average since Nov. 1.
Through Thurs., we’ve had 9 consecutive days with measurable snow and 13 consecutive days with below average temperatures (though with our high of 33 at 2 am, we may eek out a barely above average day today. 1.5″ of snow for G.R. yesterday brought our season total to 78.8″. Muskegon added 1.2″ for a season total of 96.5″. Lansing added just 0.3″ for a season total of 40.0″.
WOW! 15″ of snow in 3 hours! Joe Bastardi says: “Chicago, first 10 days of Feb. could be 10°-15° below normal with 10-20 inches of snow. -14° in Moscow, Russia on Thurs. – coldest day of the winter, so far. 61% of Great Lakes are covered in ice, the second highest coverage for the end of January in 30 years, Canadian Ice Service says…comparing Great Lakes ice cover to the 1970s. PIc. of heavy snow (der schnee!) in the Austrian Alps. Look at how fast the ice breaks up (mostly in 1/2 hour) on the Michigan City GLERL camera.