The Week Ahead

February 3rd, 2014 at 5:00 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

snow big piles christy tusing borgeld   Click the pic. to enlarge.  This is from Christy Tusing-Borgeld.  Be careful pulling out, it’s hard to see around the piles of snow.  Back in the 70s we put little orange or red balls on our car radio antenna, but now cars don’t have a  radio antenna  Season snowfall:  Grand Rapids 82.3 (31.1″ above avg. thru 2/1), Muskegon 99.0″ (34.2″ above avg.), Kalamazoo 81.2″ (28.7″ above avg.), Holland 101.8″.     Clouds can make a big difference on a calm, winter night with fresh snowcover.  Early Monday AM at 2 am it was 0° at Manistee where it was mostly clear.  Not to0 far to the north at Frankfort, it was cloudy and 17°.  Oscoda was clear and -11°, while not too far to the north, Alpena was cloudy and +7°.   Today should be partly to mostly sunny and cool.  Here’s current weather conditions around the state.   Here’s GFS model 120-hour snowfall – and NAM model snowfall thru 84-hours…you can see the heavier snowfall from the Tues. PM/Weds. system will be down in Indiana and Ohio, with snowfall tapering off as you go north.  There will be heavy snow from Indiana east to New England.  I think it’ll be a mix, but if all snow, this will be a big snowstorm for PHL, NYC, BOS.   GFS model has the cold holding thru mid-February, good time to head to S. Florida if you are tired of the chill.  Heavier snow stays south of Michigan.  Cold temperatures and lighter wind this week means more ice formation on the Great Lakes….check out WOOD’s webcam list to see some beach cams and weather around the state.

Monday PM Model update:  Look for increasing clouds on Tues. with light snow starting in the late afternoon (south of I-94)  or early evening (for the rest of us)  from SSW to NNE.  Snowfall amounts will be heavier as you go southeast and lighter as you go northwest.  We’ll have another chance of light snow over the weekend.   Predicted model snowfall amounts:  First number is NAM (caribou) and the second is the GFS (caribou):   Grand Rapids 2.9″, 1.9″, Lansing 4.1″, 2.8″, Muskegon 1.9″, 0.7″, Jackson 5.9″, 2.9″, Pontiac 5.2″, 2.8″, Big Rapids 1.6″, 0.2″, Mt. Pleasant 1.5″, 0.8″, Ludington 1.5, 0.4″, S. Haven 4.5″ (NAM only), Holland 3.1″ (NAM only).   The European gives G.R. 0.15″ precipitation Tues. night (2, maybe 2 1/2″ of snow) and then another 0.04″ next weekend (another inch at most).  The predicted high temperatures this week from the GFS (caribou) starting with Tuesday:  25, 22, 16, 20, 24, 22, 22.   Note, the models are almost always too warm with minimum temps. when we have clear skies, light winds and fresh snowcover.  You can easily go 10° below the dew point and bypass the models.  The Sunday evening NAM was still giving GRR 8.5 for a low temperature this Monday AM and you can see that was way too high.  The actual low was -4.  Kalamazoo set a record at -7.    Bottom line…temperatures well below our average high of 32 this week without a lot of snow.  The Weds. AM commute will probably bring some slick roads with the overnight snowfall.  Here’s WOOD’s closing list (most schools will be in regular session all five days this week).    At 1 AM early Monday AM, CST the coldest spots in the US were Black River Falls, WI and Sterling, IL with both locations reporting -24F.   Nearly 4,900 flights were delayed or canceled Sunday in the U.S., according to FlightStats as of Sun. evening

An interesting note on area rivers and another indication of the consistent cold.  This from GRR NWS:  “RIVER GAGES ARE FREEZING UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN  RIVER GAGES FREEZE UP…THE READINGS GO FLAT-LINED AND NO LONGER  REFLECT THE TRUE RIVER LEVELS.  RIVER GAGES THAT HAVE CURRENTLY FLAT -LINED ARE THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL… BATTLE CREEK AT BATTLE  CREEK…THORNAPPLE RIVER NEAR CALEDONIA…AND THE ROGUE RIVER NEAR  ROCKFORD.”

107 Responses to “The Week Ahead”

  1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    >>>>>>>>>BREAKING WEATHER NEWS>>>>>>> The 0OZ RDB model shows the storm tracking about 50 miles farther North and gives GR a good 3 to 5 inches of SNOW on Wednesday! BRING IT BABY!

  2. John (Norton Shores) says:

    00Z NAM is a little farther north on that 3″ snow line, now has it up to Oceana county with me getting near 4″, I sure hope it’s right but not putting any bets on it right now

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Oh ya – keep the Northern trend rolling! We may end getting more SNOW for om this storm than the WWA form Saturday. Too funny – basically everyone has given up on the Wednesday storm and it may end up bigger than the storm from Saturday! I love it! SNOW, SNOW, SNOW!!!

      1. WeatherWhitney says:

        It’s been a pleasure reading this blog and the banter between you all. For the last couple years I have learned a lot about weather, tracking, maps, etc. So I thank you! I love winter, but really all the seasons Michigan offers. I am a teacher but secretly envy weather forecasters. Let it SNOW, SNOW, SNOW a little while longer, followed up with some decent thunderstorms. Rocky your my favorite weather geek on here besides Bill (that’s a compliment btw)because even if your wrong sometimes you always keep hope alive!!! Rock and Roll!!

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Yes, it gives a bit more of a prolonged event for most of us.

  3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    This is a perfect February pattern for snowmobiling. Perfect temps, and some midweek and weekend snow to refresh everything. The snow actually softened up a little bit over the weekend, and it hardened back up nicely today. Looking like a decent 3-5″ south of I-96 through Wednesday, basically a carbon copy of Saturday’s snowstorm.

  4. Bnoppe says:

    I’m guessing wwa 96 to the south 3-5

  5. John (Norton Shores) says:

    That was unexpected the 00Z NAM is much farther north and gives me up to 6″ of snow with this system, likely overdone but if we get it I won’t complain, right now I’m counting on 3-4″ in this area

  6. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The 00Z GFS is farther north as well, it’s going to be interesting to watch the models tomorrow

  7. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Northern Indiana still gives me a WSWatch for 4-7 inches. They haven’t upgraded yet because of track uncertainty.

  8. Tyler says:

    This winter has been a historic one for the Midwest. Detroit is very close to 60 inches of snow for the season and they should top that by the end of the week! Chicago should get close to 60 by the end of the week or next. I really hope it stays cold through March so maybe the Big Lake Michigan will freeze over. Hey Bill did all the Great Lakes freeze in 1994? How bout 1979?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Here’s a picture of maximum ice cover in 1979. We had a little less ice in ’94 than in 2/1979.

  9. Jacob G. says:

    00Z HIRES Euro went a tad colder in the next week. Looking like a nice high pressure of east coast (after the big storm coming up this weekend), with return flow out of the gulf. A northern wave coming down from Alberta and a piece of energy coming out of the SW. It does want to keep a lot of the moisture along the gulf coast with possibly a severe weather outbreak. It is printing out a lot of moisture with this system and a slow mover. The disclaimer here is the Euro sometimes does have problems with these SW systems ejecting out. Definitely something to keep an eye out and we have plenty of time to watch it if it moves north and or possible phases with northern piece of energy. I do think any warm-ups or mini thaws we have will be transient and the cold will find its way back. I do see a mini warm-up coming for a few days towards Valentines day though.

Leave a Reply