The Week AheadFebruary 3rd, 2014 at 5:00 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click the pic. to enlarge. This is from Christy Tusing-Borgeld. Be careful pulling out, it’s hard to see around the piles of snow. Back in the 70s we put little orange or red balls on our car radio antenna, but now cars don’t have a radio antenna Season snowfall: Grand Rapids 82.3 (31.1″ above avg. thru 2/1), Muskegon 99.0″ (34.2″ above avg.), Kalamazoo 81.2″ (28.7″ above avg.), Holland 101.8″. Clouds can make a big difference on a calm, winter night with fresh snowcover. Early Monday AM at 2 am it was 0° at Manistee where it was mostly clear. Not to0 far to the north at Frankfort, it was cloudy and 17°. Oscoda was clear and -11°, while not too far to the north, Alpena was cloudy and +7°. Today should be partly to mostly sunny and cool. Here’s current weather conditions around the state. Here’s GFS model 120-hour snowfall – and NAM model snowfall thru 84-hours…you can see the heavier snowfall from the Tues. PM/Weds. system will be down in Indiana and Ohio, with snowfall tapering off as you go north. There will be heavy snow from Indiana east to New England. I think it’ll be a mix, but if all snow, this will be a big snowstorm for PHL, NYC, BOS. GFS model has the cold holding thru mid-February, good time to head to S. Florida if you are tired of the chill. Heavier snow stays south of Michigan. Cold temperatures and lighter wind this week means more ice formation on the Great Lakes….check out WOOD’s webcam list to see some beach cams and weather around the state.
Monday PM Model update: Look for increasing clouds on Tues. with light snow starting in the late afternoon (south of I-94) or early evening (for the rest of us) from SSW to NNE. Snowfall amounts will be heavier as you go southeast and lighter as you go northwest. We’ll have another chance of light snow over the weekend. Predicted model snowfall amounts: First number is NAM (caribou) and the second is the GFS (caribou): Grand Rapids 2.9″, 1.9″, Lansing 4.1″, 2.8″, Muskegon 1.9″, 0.7″, Jackson 5.9″, 2.9″, Pontiac 5.2″, 2.8″, Big Rapids 1.6″, 0.2″, Mt. Pleasant 1.5″, 0.8″, Ludington 1.5, 0.4″, S. Haven 4.5″ (NAM only), Holland 3.1″ (NAM only). The European gives G.R. 0.15″ precipitation Tues. night (2, maybe 2 1/2″ of snow) and then another 0.04″ next weekend (another inch at most). The predicted high temperatures this week from the GFS (caribou) starting with Tuesday: 25, 22, 16, 20, 24, 22, 22. Note, the models are almost always too warm with minimum temps. when we have clear skies, light winds and fresh snowcover. You can easily go 10° below the dew point and bypass the models. The Sunday evening NAM was still giving GRR 8.5 for a low temperature this Monday AM and you can see that was way too high. The actual low was -4. Kalamazoo set a record at -7. Bottom line…temperatures well below our average high of 32 this week without a lot of snow. The Weds. AM commute will probably bring some slick roads with the overnight snowfall. Here’s WOOD’s closing list (most schools will be in regular session all five days this week). At 1 AM early Monday AM, CST the coldest spots in the US were Black River Falls, WI and Sterling, IL with both locations reporting -24F. Nearly 4,900 flights were delayed or canceled Sunday in the U.S., according to FlightStats as of Sun. evening
An interesting note on area rivers and another indication of the consistent cold. This from GRR NWS: “RIVER GAGES ARE FREEZING UP ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN RIVER GAGES FREEZE UP…THE READINGS GO FLAT-LINED AND NO LONGER REFLECT THE TRUE RIVER LEVELS. RIVER GAGES THAT HAVE CURRENTLY FLAT -LINED ARE THE WHITE RIVER AT WHITEHALL… BATTLE CREEK AT BATTLE CREEK…THORNAPPLE RIVER NEAR CALEDONIA…AND THE ROGUE RIVER NEAR ROCKFORD.”