Winter Weather Advisory – Expanded N. to G.R.

February 4th, 2014 at 4:07 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory   From the GRR NWS:  “WILL SOON BE ISSUING A NORTHERN EXPANSION TO THE CURRENT  ADVISORY… TWO MORE ROWS OF COUNTIES NORTH. EVEN THOUGH SNOW  AMOUNTS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS NORTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY… THE BEST SNOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING SQUARELY DURING THE WEDNESDAY  MORNING COMMUTE AND TRAVEL WILL BE HIGHLY IMPACTED.     ALSO THE DEFORMATION ZONE ENHANCED CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN BETTER SHAPE NOW UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE AND LOOK A TAD FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL NUDGE UP SNOW AMOUNTS ABOUT ONE INCH… WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94. WILL ALSO ADD SOME BLOWING/DRIFING SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF GRR. “  Based on a quick look at model data…GRR looks to be up around 3-4″, Kalamazoo 5-6″, Muskegon 2-3″.  The winds may be strong enough for a little drifting.  We have a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 pm until noon on Weds. for Berrien, Cass, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun and Jackson Counties for 3-6″ of new snow and a Winter Storm Warning for St. Joseph, Branch and Hillsdale Counties in Michigan and for much of N. Indiana and Ohio.   That’s for 3-6″ of snow in the Michigan counties and up to 10″ in Indiana.   Check the thread below for model forecast snow totals and watch 24-Hour News 8 for the updated forecast.  BTW, I put up the images going down into Indiana because it shows all the Michigan counties in our viewing area under Advisories and Warnings, there was nothing to the north of the I-94 counties and for anyone traveling south or checking the blog from down in Indiana (and I do have a few people that we’ve picked up from N. Indiana), we’ll show them the Warnings/Advisories.

107 Responses to “Winter Weather Advisory – Expanded N. to G.R.”

  1. Dan says:

    This was going south of my area. Maybe, we pick up an inch or two of snow! Any other big storms in our near future? Looks clear and dry for awhile! Bring back the snow for the remainder of February!

    1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

      Sorry, the SNOW PARTY is over.
      Get ready for SPRING! 45 days!!!

      1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

        Yup, it’s Feb. I know it’s still early, but every year I am ready for winter to be over at the start of Feb. I can handle it being cold, I just want the snow machine turned off. :)

  2. Mike (southeast Berrien county) says:

    3-6″ tonight will put me close to 100″ for the season.

  3. Dan(Wayne county) says:

    I’m 40 miles north of Toledo. I need this storm to head north just 30-50 miles north and I’ll be happy!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Me too, but I could use a little break honestly. An advisory for 3-5″ is enough.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The NAM has the snow creeping back north a bit Dan.
      http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR

      1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

        The 06Z run was back south a bit.

      2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

        Correction…for Toledo…looks perfect, but for my area, the heavier snow is south.

        http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

        1. DF (SE Mich) says:

          We’re in A2 and Wayne County, north for us.

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Another eastsider! You guys are going to get a lot more snow than I am with this one. Although we’ll probably both get more than GR.

  4. Jeff (Richland) says:

    At least there appears to be a *slight* warmup in our future, even just getting to 35-40 would be nice so we can get at least a little melt. I hope most of this snow stays south of us, the roads are in the best shape they have been in all winter!

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      Yea… at least the secondary roads are about 60% clear now… another couple clear days and they would be 100%. But looks like at least 4-5 inches for Kazoo Cty

  5. DJ2450 says:

    I have tried to post this and it seems to have failed so I am trying again. It may duplicate.

    I won’t pretend to be a weather forecaster but to me things don’t look as currently forecasted for tonight’s event. The NWS low track starts the low in far eastern Texas on the gulf coast. They have it tracking NE through Tennessee to far eastern Ohio.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

    Looking at the current satellite and radar images the low seems to be developing about 200 mi. NNW of the predicted location. To me it looks as though the storm center is developing in Oklahoma.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-central-region/satellite-ir?play=1

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar?play=1

    This is not a prediction but rather an observation. Just looking for input.

  6. Dan says:

    Looks to stay cold at least until late February. I’m thinking, we will get one or two more decent chances for snow. Then, Winter will fade into Spring. Remember due to all the snow pack, we would need a slow and gradual warm up.
    Otherwise, there will be flooding issues!

  7. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z NAM has trended a bit north…now has the 6″ line from about South Haven to Saginaw.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

  8. Wolverdog says:

    Does the fact that the Lake dome is absent from the ice on Lake Michigan affect the track. Every model I have scene has the classic push south from the lake. But without the Rising warm air from the lake, will the storm not push further north than they originally forecasted? Did anyone add the ice levels to the forecast and re-track the system?

  9. Bnoppe says:

    I was just thinking last year was a mess with outdoor sports in the spring. I foresee even more issues this year

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      As soon as the ice thaws I’m going sailing! The sooner the better, withdrawal started February 1…

  10. Bnoppe says:

    I don’t think it’s impossible,e to see an upgrade to a wsw in the south east counties of the adv this afternoon radar trends will be key to making the decision

  11. John (Norton Shores) says:

    12Z NAM would be an advisory event for Muskegon county southward to the ind/Mich border then a wsw for the border south and also a wsw for southeast Michigan including Detroit

    1. DJ2450 says:

      I have tried to post this and it seems to have failed so I am trying again. It may duplicate.

      I won’t pretend to be a weather forecaster but to me things don’t look as currently forecasted for tonight’s event. The NWS low track starts the low in far eastern Texas on the gulf coast. They have it tracking NE through Tennessee to far eastern Ohio.

      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

      Looking at the current satellite and radar images the low seems to be developing about 200 mi. NNW of the predicted location. To me it looks as though the storm center is developing in Oklahoma.

      http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-central-region/satellite-ir?play=1

      http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar?play=1

      This is not a prediction but rather an observation. Just looking for input.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        When you try and post more than one link in a comment, it’s often automatically bumped to moderation. That’s just how it’s set up.

  12. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    The Winter Storm Warning for me (barely) looks good.

  13. Mike (Mattawan) says:

    Im glad this storm is staying off to the south, Indiana can have all the snow this month! Im ready for spring!

  14. remember folks were not to the 1/2 way point of winter

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      technically, you are correct…I would bet we will see some spring weather before March 21st. More than a few days.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Meteorological spring starts in only a few weeks!

    3. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Techically speaking yes, but most of our snow falls Dec – Feb. March can be a very variable month, could be cold and snowy, could be 60+ and sunny. I don’t see the latter happening but I would be happy with a middle ground.

  15. Bnoppe says:

    GFS further south a lot in fact

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      do you have the 12 GFS?

      1. Bnoppe says:

        Well maybe not as far as I thought the color code was off some looks it’s actually a hair north
        Those ncep models into gogle and you should see it

        1. John (Grand Rapids) says:

          Looks like anywhere from a quarter to a half inch for most of West Michigan.

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      GFS is a bit further north from its previous runs, not as far north as the NAM and not as much precip.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    3. John (Norton Shores) says:

      12Z GFS is more north

  16. Brian(Grandville) says:

    That is one huge area of precipitation. I like the direction its moving too.

    1. John (Grand Rapids) says:

      :)

  17. GFS a bit north, most all areas 2-4 with 3-6 for southeast lower

    1. Not a big storm but another nice blanket of snow

  18. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The direction the storm is heading right now, well get the most snow

  19. GFS weekend snow would bring 1-3 to 2-4 for most of west Michigan, and 2-4 to 3-6 for southeast lower and the thumb area

  20. kevin. w says:

    CFSv2 is starting to show the bermuda high toward the first part of March and if thats the case the flood will be starting. Wonder how many basements will be flooded with the deep snow pack and heavy rains. Its going to be interesting to watch glad I don’t have a basement.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      What does this mean? Warmer weather or ?

      1. Jacob G. says:

        High off the east coast will make the systems tend to run west of the Mountains with ample amounts of gulf moisture as the return flow will be out of the gulf.

  21. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    As of this morning WOOD gave me 1-2″, NWS gave me 2-4″, and WWMT gave me 3-5″. I wonder who will be right? I’m guessing I’ll receive 4″, and call it good.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Last night I had you in 1-3 and a lot closer to 3 than 1. I think you get 3″ rounded to a whole number.

  22. John (Norton Shores) says:

    12Z GFS has a clipper type system moving through the whole area Sunday, would bring a general 3-6″ of snow

  23. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    WWMT shows a path of 3-5 inches through the lower half of Kent county and all of Ionia county then to the east. How consistant is there forecast compared to 8, 11 and 13′s?

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      they are all different so they can brag if they are the closest.

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        I don’t normally watch that channel. Most of their news is too far south from here.

        1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

          your not missing much. They are a pretty amateurish tv station.

  24. Stacsh says:

    Interesting to see the NWS update this afternoon.

  25. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    The size and direction on that storm is staggering. It’s heading straight at me right now. I think the forecast of 5-8 inches for me is on track. I like the NAM: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      another snow day for Three Rivers? might be close. Thankfully we don’t have a winter storm warning.. otherwise, they automatically cancel school

    2. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Ugh that puts me in the 6-8″ range. Running out of places to put all this snow.

  26. Jack says:

    Tuesday Morning CUE, Jackson Browne ” Lawyers in Love”. :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEULVyg1O_8. Good Day…& Stay Cued…… ;-)

  27. INDY says:

    Wow that BIG storms looks to be moving right for Michigan!!!! Grand rapids will be getting 3-6 inches of new snow now!!! Stay tuned INDY…..

  28. John (Norton Shores) says:

    http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

    12Z GFS snowfall map, 4-6″ of that snow would come Sunday, 3-4″ tonight into tomorrow

  29. Ben (Ann Arbor) says:

    The NWS Detroit is on board with the farther north idea. Moved the weather advisory two counties North

  30. John (Grand Rapids) says:

    WOOD’s Noon forecast still calls for only 1-2 inches for most of us, but I was thinking more on the lines of 3-5”. Anyone else thinking that?

    1. Steven(DerbyLake) says:

      13 had a higher total. But he said he wasnt buying into it. Guess well have to wait and see

  31. Chrispy (Byron Center) says:

    I’m confused! When I look at this HPC map, the Low id predicted to be over Tennessee at midnight: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

    But looking at the 12:30 radar, the circulation appears to be over SE Nebraska – a lot farther west and way earlier: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php

    Why?

    1. Chrispy (Byron Center) says:

      *is* predicted…

      1. Cort S. says:

        What you are seeing in Nebraska/Kansas is a circulation/low in the mid-levels (about a mile or two high). That mid-level low does not extend down to the surface, so it doesn’t show up on a surface weather chart.

        1. Chrispy (Byron Center) says:

          Thanks Cort!

          I’m an engineer by trade and weather geek by hobby so there’s lots to learn. I guess you have to remember weather is a 3D reality depicted in 2D cross sections on the charts. Do you professionals have any 3D visualization tools for weather like we use in engineering?

        2. Cort S. says:

          I wish we had more, but it takes a lot of finagling to get an image to look righ. 3D visualizations of real-time weather don’t seem to be very prevalent. Sometimes, some of our conceptual models can be presented in 3D, but they are often incomplete. ( http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter12/graphics/conveyors.jpg )

          There are some programs out there that allow you to depict some real-time weather observations in 3D. For example, I have a radar display program that can take the multiple scan angles from a radar site and interpolate it into a 3D image, as an isosurface of precip intensity. There’s another program where you could depict something like a jet stream core in 3D by defining a certain wind speed threshold to be represented as an opaque surface.

          There are some really great 3D visualizations done from high-resultion computer model output. I would recommend a Google Image Search for “vis5d” for some eye candy. Also, check out these 3D depictions of a modeled supercell thunderstorm and tornado:

          http://research.orf5.com/

        3. Chrispy (Byron Center) says:

          Cool stuff. I loved computational models when I was in college and that was 25 years ago.

          3D tech has come a long way for CAD systems and now there are some serious virtual visualizing systems being used in some areas of the industry. Hopefully some of that will bleed over into your world in a useful way making forecasting and real time evaluation of severe events more and more accurate.

  32. Paul m says:

    Maybe this storm going to surprise us!

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      weather forecasters are never wrong, are they???! lol

  33. snowlover Wayland says:

    Is there still a storm in the process for 2/10 as was being chatted about last week?

    1. Brad says:

      Bastardi? LOL!

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      No, the storm is gone, now it is showing a clipper on Sunday.

  34. fixxxer says:

    You ready for spring rj?

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      Yes, I am ready… snow lovers have enough snow now… why they need more, I don’t know. I am glad February is a short month!

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        I like your thought process!

  35. Must be the NWS is punting on the morning update

  36. I have increased the zones that I put out this morning with an extra inch to each area. Not a big storm for most areas but the 1-3, 2-4 inches over much of the area will blow around a bit tonight with winds a bit stronger as well in the 15-18mph range and gusts of 20-25mph. look for more school closings tomorrow.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      I’m going with 4-7″ south of I-94, 3-6″ in between I-94 and I-96, and 1-3″ north of I-96. Basically deja vu of Saturday’s snowfall.

      1. John (Grand Rapids) says:

        That sounds pretty reasonable.

  37. The weekend storm will be back in later runs, it’s that day 4-5 trick the GFS does with storms, watch now for the ECMWF to start looking at a more organized storm vs reese’s piece’s that it was or is showing.

  38. Wswplz says:

    It’s seems there is a trend with the models when tracking these lows ejecting out from the SW….as the event is 1-2days out you seem to get a northerly adjustment sometimes two or three runs….then as the event is maybe 12 hours out or less slightly south again….maybe it’s just my perception and not reality…..i guess I’ll take my 2 lumps of sugar and be content…

    1. unless the rain / snow line is close then it goes north lol

  39. Wswplz says:

    Exactly….lol

  40. yooper4021 says:

    GRR NWS
    UPDATE

    ISSUED AT 119 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

    WILL SOON BE ISSUING A NORTHERN EXPANSION TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY… TWO MORE ROWS OF COUNTIES NORTH. EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS NORTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY… THE BEST SNOW SHOULD BE OCCURRING SQUARELY DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AND TRAVEL WILL BE HIGHLY IMPACTED. ALSO THE DEFORMATION ZONE ENHANCED CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN BETTER SHAPE NOW UPSTREAM ON IR SATELLITE AND LOOK A TAD FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED. WILL NUDGE UP SNOW AMOUNTS ABOUT ONE INCH… WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94. WILL ALSO ADD SOME BLOWING/DRIFING SNOW ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF GRR. THE NORTHERN EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY WAS COORDINATED WITH DTX.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Officially added.

  41. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Woohoo… NWS expanded the advisory north and bumped up snow totals in SE Mich.

    3-5″ for me now.

    We sure are missing a big one though. Look at that wide 6-12″ band in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Welcome to the club. I thought they might issue warnings down here.

      1. That might happen still, with the afternoon update and with the added info of the Canadian and ECMWF

        1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

          is it possible WSW could be further north? Like Kzoo county?

        2. I think is possible Reid based on radar and SAT but either way were looking at a high end advisory anyway.

  42. John (Grand Rapids) says:

    Looks like 3-5” for GR… Still wondering if we are going to have one huge storm this year. Either way, it’s been a great winter.

  43. I’m pretty sure NWS DET will upgrade Lenawee and Monroe to a warning with the pm update. perhaps Washtenaw and Wayne being the the impact on the morning rush

  44. Rob( Norton Shores) says:

    To me what seems strange is that when some sort of advisory is given(example) Kent county, that if you take N Kent co. draw a straight line west you cover half of Musk. co. I do know that if southern Kent gets advisory snows then the whole county. But Muskegon????huh.

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      I think the NWS uses the I96 corridor as a refference point. That may be why.

      1. Rob( Norton Shores) says:

        I thought so, after I hit comment. lol

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        That’s because all storms looks at their maps and follow the freeways. How else would they know where to go LOL
        SlimJim

        1. TAZ (Freeport) says:

          If part of the county is included, the entire county is included.

        2. Wswplz says:

          I’m officially renaming highway 10 as the 94…. So then everything south gets the heaviest snow…since these storms only snow around or below these darn freeways/ highways/ interstates….lol

  45. Brett says:

    Do you guys think school closings are possible in kent?

    1. Reid Jones (Schoolcraft) says:

      not Kent…

      Maybe southern Kazoo and southward

  46. I expect many many rural schools to close around and south of Mt Pleasant

    1. the storm is already north of where it should be

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