A Significant, but Temporary Warm-Up

February 13th, 2014 at 8:57 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

610temp.new 610prcp.new814temp.new814prcp.new    Click on the images to enlarge.  From left to right, we have the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center…next the 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook, then the 8-14 day Temperature Outlook and the 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook.   On the temperature outlook, blue is a higher chance of colder than average weather and the red colors are a higher chance of warmer than average temperatures.  The precipitation maps show areas with a high chance of above average precipitation in green and a high chance of drier than average weather in the tan colors.  As you can see, we have a warm-up coming for the 2nd half of next week…but it’ll be short-lived, because Michigan is back in the blue (where we have been most of the winter) on the 8-14 day map.  We are in above average precipitation which will be more snow on Monday…then rain for the 2nd half of next week, then the following week back to snow.  Keep in mind that with the amount of ice on Lake Michigan, the amount of any lake-effect snow will be reduced.  The warm-up will be similar to the 4-day warm-up we had from Jan. 10-13.  For those 4 days, the average high temp. was 41.5.  During that warm spell, we only melted about half our snow cover.  This spell may be a little warmer, but it’ll be hard to melt all the snow…but it’ll knock down the piles and give us better visibility pulling out into traffic.    Again, this will be a temporary warm-up…the cold is back in the Great Lakes for late February.   I’ll write more on the potential for flooding next week in a couple days.   BTW, you can see that the East Coast gets a big warm-up and most of their snow is going to melt.

Also, look at the ice near Augusta GACross-country skiing in Atlanta.   Tweet from Al Roker:  “  says snow was faster/heavier than expected.  No, Mr. Mayor. It came as predicted. Don’t blame weather for YOUR poor policy.”        It looked to me like the forecasts from the NWS and WeatherBell (two that I looked at) were better than the general models (European model did better than the GFS).   BTW, thanks to Mark Walton of the GRR NWS for doing a phoner with me on the 5 pm news tonight.   Here’s some wind (108 mph!) and rainfall totals from the storm that hit Ireland and the U.K.

34 Responses to “A Significant, but Temporary Warm-Up”

  1. Andy says:

    BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!! WARM UP COMING END OF NEXT WEEK!!!!!!! BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS!!!!!! And yes…before you start acting like jerks trying to ignore the FACT that we do have a heat wave on it’s way…we ALL KNOW IT’S ONLY TEMPORARY!!!! BUT…BUT…BUT…IT. IS. STILL. GOING. TO. HAPPEN!!!! I am ready for a some of the snow to meal and to get a little taste of Spring…which IS coming FAST!!!! Still hoping for a certified BLIZZARD…but time will tell!!! Time is slowly but surely waning and Winter is slowly, but surely running out of time to give us a WHOPPER of a BLIZZARD!!! But for now…BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS WARM UP COMING NEXT WEEK!!!!!! LOL

    1. Andy says:

      *MELT…not *meal* haha…that’s what I get for eating a slice of pie and typing. lol

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      If it helps, I know it’s farmer’s almanac, but they are calling for a late season snowstorm around the middle of April, maybe that will be our snowstorm lol

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        We already had tons of snowstorms… so I’m all good. Lets get those thunderstorms into the picture now!

        1. Jack says:

          Indeed , Time For…….Thunder Booms & Lighting ZZZOOOOMMMMSSSS !!!! Stay Cued .. ….. ;-)

        2. Andy says:

          AGREED!!!! I do hope we get some AWESOME thunderstorms this Spring/Summer. We are do for a BIG thunderstorm!!

  2. Brian (Grandville) says:

    New York City had 10″ of snow earlier today. They are now getting a t-storm with hail! Wow.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Yeah, I just talked to my buds in Manhattan and they said they currently have a good thunderstorm after 8″ earlier.

  3. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Good, I am going to California soon… The pattern needs to go back to the way it’s been all winter :)

    1. Wswplz says:

      You really heading to Ca or you just jokin around….but if you are where?

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Just for a trip, San Diego.

  4. Brian (Grandville) says:

    USA just killed it in the slope style competition. Thats a fun one to watch for me, for I love downhill skiing.

    1. Wswplz says:

      Yes they did, it’s one discipline we are good at…hasn’t been around long, that’s why..lol.

  5. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Just got home from work and it was freezing drizzle the whole way home. Hitting the windshield and freezing instantly, had a hard time seeing till the defroster warmed up the window enough. Coming down fast enough to almost be freezing rain, not quite though.

  6. INDY says:

    More snow flakes falling out at thee YARDofBRICKS…..INDYY…

  7. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Getting lake enhanced snow right now, big fat heavy wet snowflakes, added a new inch of snow today brining my season total up to 115″ even

  8. Michael g (se gr) says:

    Well looky there, the big warm up is still a week away and we can already see arctic air and potential snowstorms on the other side of it. 110″ here we come!!

  9. Michael g (se gr) says:

    There is bit of freezing drizzle mixed on right now too. My windshield iced up on the way home.

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The 00Z GFS is a bit stronger on the Monday system, looks like a good 5-8″ event for areas along and north of 96 at this point

  11. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The 00Z GFS is similar to the 18Z in terms of the warm up, it’s trending a little cooler

  12. Michael g (se gr) says:

    00Z GFS actually brings in air aloft almost -30*c during the last week of February. That would more more extreme than even the most optimistic warm forecast. Really extremely seasonal!

    1. Wswplz says:

      That’s not 500 mb temps, is it??

      1. Michael g (se gr) says:


  13. Wswplz says:

    It’s interesting to see how the warm temps will be sweeping across the US next week…we aren’t to far away from that split where it seems we will be seeing below average temps as most all the east and Ca see some warmer temps. What type of precipitation we see will be something to watch, being that we are favored to see above average precip and having the warm sector just to our east…. I think people might want to hold of on the SPF beach towels and sunglasses just a little longer.

  14. Wswplz says:

    No freezing drizzle here…just big snow flakes falling from the sky…quite nice to watch.

  15. Bald Eagle (Montague) says:

    Car covered with ice & 1-2 inches of snow. Guess I better let it warm up for a bit before i’m of to work. Ready fr a warm up & melt a little of this! Be safe everyone!

    1. Wswplz says:

      You as well…off to work at 2:20am. Your a better man( woman) than me, that’s for sure…I’m going at 7:00 and that’s to early for me..lol

  16. Dan says:

    Interesting that the warm up gets pushed back a day or two. Also, there isn’t warmer weather on the other side of this. While there is a warm up coming, winter is not over! ‘What about hydorlogical issues as kevin w talked about during this time? Interesting winter for sure!

  17. Dan says:


  18. Monday pm into Tuesday
    GFS & ECMWF 2-6 inches with ECMWF 6 inch line about 75 miles south of it’s last run.
    Canadian 6-10 inches for all of the area from TVC to Toledo

    In any event we might just melt the snow that falls early week with the warmup or just add more water content to the pack. Another possible snow event early the following week with cold air coming back. Enjoy the 40s with a 50 for southern areas Thursday.

    1. Thinking will see a nice 3-5 for much of the area north of I94 or I96

    2. but won’t rule out the Canadian, this amount of warm air could really be a great snow producer north of the push of warm air.

  19. Mj says:

    Loving all the cold & snow. It’s the season. It’s beautiful & embracing nature for what it offers.

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