A Significant, but Temporary Warm-UpFebruary 13th, 2014 at 8:57 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the images to enlarge. From left to right, we have the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center…next the 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook, then the 8-14 day Temperature Outlook and the 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. On the temperature outlook, blue is a higher chance of colder than average weather and the red colors are a higher chance of warmer than average temperatures. The precipitation maps show areas with a high chance of above average precipitation in green and a high chance of drier than average weather in the tan colors. As you can see, we have a warm-up coming for the 2nd half of next week…but it’ll be short-lived, because Michigan is back in the blue (where we have been most of the winter) on the 8-14 day map. We are in above average precipitation which will be more snow on Monday…then rain for the 2nd half of next week, then the following week back to snow. Keep in mind that with the amount of ice on Lake Michigan, the amount of any lake-effect snow will be reduced. The warm-up will be similar to the 4-day warm-up we had from Jan. 10-13. For those 4 days, the average high temp. was 41.5. During that warm spell, we only melted about half our snow cover. This spell may be a little warmer, but it’ll be hard to melt all the snow…but it’ll knock down the piles and give us better visibility pulling out into traffic. Again, this will be a temporary warm-up…the cold is back in the Great Lakes for late February. I’ll write more on the potential for flooding next week in a couple days. BTW, you can see that the East Coast gets a big warm-up and most of their snow is going to melt.
Also, look at the ice near Augusta GA. Cross-country skiing in Atlanta. Tweet from Al Roker: “Al Roker
@alroker @NYCMayorsOffice says snow was faster/heavier than expected. No, Mr. Mayor. It came as predicted. Don’t blame weather for YOUR poor policy.” It looked to me like the forecasts from the NWS and WeatherBell (two that I looked at) were better than the general models (European model did better than the GFS). BTW, thanks to Mark Walton of the GRR NWS for doing a phoner with me on the 5 pm news tonight. Here’s some wind (108 mph!) and rainfall totals from the storm that hit Ireland and the U.K.