Cool, then Warmer, then back to Cool

February 15th, 2014 at 3:54 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

814temp.new   814prcp.new    Saturday AM model update:  The European has 1/2-1″ of snow Sat. night for G.R., 0.40″ Monday (4″ of snow).  The one warm day on the European is Thursday, where it briefly takes us to 53° with highs only in the mid-upper 30s Tues., Weds., and Fri.  It has some snow or a mix on Sunday the 23rd.  The NAM also has pretty good snow for us Monday with as much as 9.6″ for Mt. Pleasant (cut in half would still be nearly 5″), 8.2″ for Big Rapids, 5.2″ for Holland, 5.8″ for Grand Rapids, 3.3″ for Kalamazoo and 5.5″ for Muskegon.  That model has 1/2″ -1″ of snow Sat. night.  The GFS (caribou) has 1/2″ of snow for G.R. Sat. night and just 1.4″ on Monday (2.2″ for Kalamazooo, 1.7″ for Big Rapids.   The GFS plot might get us to 2″ of snow Monday, but it never brings in the warm air, with highs beginning Tues. of 33, 34, 37, and 31, and only light showers on Thurs.  The FIM model agrees with the European, bring the low on Thurs. west of us and getting us into the warm air.  The Canadian looks a touch slower.  We’ll need another 24-hours for the system to get into the balloon data in the Western U.S. to have a better idea of how warm we’ll get and how much rain we’ll see.   Note the 8-14 day outlooks for Feb. 22-28 from CPC posted here.  with the darker blue (the highest probably of cold) centered right over Michigan and also above average precipitation (more snow).

From GRR NWS:  We have set a record for the most number of consecutive  days with more than 20″ of snow on the ground in G.R…from Feb. 5-14.  The old record was 9 days set in 1936 and again in 1979.  The 23″ snow depth from the 7th to 10th tied the record for the deepest snow cover in February set on Feb. 16-17, 1936.  We have now had only one day warmer than average in the last four weeks.   Today (Sat.) is the 68th consecutive day with 4″ or more of snow on the ground.  If the GFS is right, we could hang onto a 4″ snow cover into at least the first week of March.

We’re off to a very slow start to the tornado season.  We have had only four tornadoes so far this year…all weak EF0 tornadoes on Jan. 11th (the one listed in Feb. for Ft. Meade, Florida turns out to be 50 mph winds from a t-storm.  In 2013 (a near-record low number of tornadoes), we had 75 tornadoes in January alone and in 2012, we had 79 tornadoes in January.

Enjoy your weekend!

 

273 Responses to “Cool, then Warmer, then back to Cool”

  1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    This evening’s run of the NAM looks good for snow. 8 to 12 inches for areas north and west of Grand Rapids.

    The one thing I like about this is the forecast has been looking better for snow, rather than showing it earlier in the week and then losing it as we get closer.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      The NAM has been all over and I think it might be over doing those amounts but even if you cut those amounts you still get a solid 4-8″, advisory maybe even watch type snows for sure

    2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Yeah, GR to the NW could get hit hard.

  2. Andy says:

    WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!! Look at those warmer temps ALL WEEK LONG!!!! BADA BA BA BA…IM LOVIN IT!!! :D

  3. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The GFS is still on it’s own, and only shows 1-3″ of snow for west Michigan on Monday, all the other models print a solid 3-6″ and some areas getting 6′+, so I think it’s safe to rule out the GFS

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I wouldn’t rule out the GFS just yet, I think we should wait until tomorrow morning for that. The GFS can be reliable sometimes.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        We will see, the GFS is the only model on the low side of the snowfall on Monday, if there were more models showing lower amounts I would side with the GFS, but you could be right too, it’s a wait n see situation

  4. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Hey Nathan, I saw your post earlier about how nobody listens to you, I listen to you and I like your comment, sometimes I may disagree with you and I’m sorry if it makes you think I don’t listen to you, I love how your so interested in weather and don’t let anyone on this blog ruin that for you!

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Thanks John, I definitely read your comments too! Also it’s fine if you disagree with me becuase it’s fun to discuss things. Btw I do think the GFS is an outlier for this coming system, but I still don’t feel comfortable discarding the model just yet. I think we will get a better grip on this storm tomorrow. (Also there won’t be any lake enhancement surprises this time, so that could help things a bit for the meteorologists)

    2. Stephen(NorthMuskegon) says:

      Nathan no need to cry for attention just because somone doesn’t post on what you post. Just being honest.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Yeah I’m off of here

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Nathan do you mean your leaving? Don’t leave! it’s nice having you on here!

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          No I won’t leave but wow some people are disrespectful! Well anyways

        3. John (Norton Shores) says:

          They are, don’t listen to them

        4. Stephen(NorthMuskegon) says:

          Its not disrespectful when you cry for attention and don’t get it, that’s life.

        5. Wswplz says:

          What’s being said that bothers you Nate..?

  5. Joe says:

    I’m somewhat glad the temps late next week might not be as high as previously thought. Not because I want winter to drag on, but because I’d prefer a slow melt of all this snow. My basement is a bit flood prone. A week in the mid to upper 30s with some sunshine would be fine with me before the 40s and 50s kick in.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I’m with you there, Joe. I hope we slowly ease into spring this year.

  6. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The trails and the weather were AWESOME today. Perfect temps with sun! If you did not like the winter weather today, you might as well just move or go hibernate! Simply fantastic!

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Well I see the RDB predictions for lower temps next week with less rain is right on track! Slim and SW Kent did you mark it down? Keep the COLD and SNOW coming baby! I love it!

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Is there anything wrong with this SNOW map?

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Wswplz says:

      Hey Rocky, hope you enjoyed the trails….So you mentioned you need odds for your snow prediction of 48″ of snow to come, from now till the end of winter…3 to 1 ? You said you were dead serious..let me know. :)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        It was at least 36 more inches, so that would put the seasonal total of around 128 inches! I will put down $100 at 3 to 1 odds! Oh by the way the trails were PERFECT – HEAVEN on EARTH!

        1. Wswplz says:

          True 36-48″ was the call…I was trying to push ya to 48″ since your predictions have been coming true so maybe just maybe you could pull off a miracle and we would be in snow heaven, with an extra 48″ i Its fun to try and imagine GR with 138″ for the year. I would be happy to pay $300 in advance to the snow Gods if they would guarantee the snow…or you..lol

    2. Wswplz says:

      Hmm, we could move that light blue down a bit and east a little….no, nothing wrong..as long as it verifies…

    3. Wswplz says:

      Is someone backing off there statement…. Hehehe

  9. Dan says:

    Record breaking Winter remains on track. As we approach the official start of Spring, I bet we see at least 3 more big snows! Winter will try to wind down but it is saving the best for last! GR on the way to 110 inches of snow!

  10. Wswplz says:

    You get the feeling that many on this blog are starting to tire of his harsh winter, even some( not all ) snow lovers have begun to opt out of this pattern. I think that might have had a slight impact on some of the extra flare ups I seemed to notice today. I believe you might get the same effect from a long, hot and humid summer, people just get warn down having to deal with extremes which last long periods. I’m not btw taking away from anything that has been said, just making an observation. I personally hope we get to see some good snow this Monday and through the rest of winter. Then I will be happy to yield to spring….

    1. ronnie chapman says:

      so any ideas what next winter will be like// i like to plan lol

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Usually this is the time of year that the bloggers get grumpy. But this year is different. People are way past grumpy and are downright rude. I don’t remember this much name-calling and insults. I’m hoping everyone will lighten up once the weather warms.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Don’t exclude yourself from the rude posts, Mark. I have seen some posts from you that aren’t “kind”. For example, today you mentioned something about Rocky having no friends. Some might say, “It is the truth”. But it didn’t need to be said.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Your opinion is noted.

        2. mr. negative says:

          Mark…maybe a request for a list of acceptable comments? Dangerous ground posting comments that might appear on the “did’nt need to be said” list. Just a suggestion.

        3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          :P

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      Im a snow lover, but moving it, either shoveling, plowing, or snowblowing…. is getting old.

  11. Jack says:

    Hmmmm, Things are getting a little ” Out of Control”…. Cue, Old Eagles TUNE called ” Out of Control” :::::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWXLlmujURk. ;-) . Happy Saturday, y’all …..Stay Cued……………………. ;-)

    1. Wswplz says:

      Haven’t heard that song in a while…been to see the Eagles twice in concert, good show, and fun crowd.

      1. Jack says:

        Yeah, I saw the eagles for the first Time, back in the 70′s at Gvsu. They were touring with Linda ronstadt at the time. Had front Row seats! Actually Had Linda show up for a After Concert PARTY, We HAD. …. Ahhh, Memories from the Past !! :-) . Stay cued……… ;-)

  12. Dan says:

    Yes, I’m sure people are tired of cold and snow. I just think it be coil to be a part of a historical winter! I don’t wish ill on anybody, cars stuck, slipping on the ice, high heating bills, flooding from the thaw, etc! Just want to be part of a record event!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      BEST WINTER EVER – it is a foregone conclusion we (GR) will exceed the second highest seasonal snowfall total of 107 inches! Bring it!

      1. GB says:

        Hey kid maybe you will get school off on Monday.

  13. Dan says:

    * will be cool

  14. jtburnie says:

    Hey Bill, I think you meant 68th consecutive days not 78. Our 4″ streak began on 12/10/13.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      You’re right…meant 68th…I fixed it…thanks.

  15. Wswplz says:

    Oh mannnn, I can’t believe that happened….I taped the hockey game from earlier and just had a chance to finish watching it, and what happens…39 ticks left in over time play….IT STOPPED RECORDING…unreal, right before the shoot out!! Oh well..good outcome at least. Errrrrrr

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The game will be replayed tonight on NBC!

      1. GB says:

        This is the only post of value you have ever made.

        Thank you

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I was working,and missed it. That would have been an amazing game to watch, especially if it were for a medal.

      1. Wswplz says:

        It was fun to watch, until it stopped…lol. Let’s hope their best hockey comes when they play for all the marbles!

    3. Jack says:

      NBC is re- airing The Hockey Game Tonight in Prime Time I See, check it out wswplz…

      1. Wswplz says:

        Ya, I saw they are, but thanks for the heads up…I’m taping it currently and extended the recording time by an hour, so as to make sure I get the shoot out..always fun to watch, those guys are good!!!

    4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I just may watch it again. It was that good.

  16. Wswplz says:

    I see some snow starting to develop across the lake. Looks to be some what south at this point, as I know this disturbance is not going to amount to much.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      And the lake won’t help it… so Im only anticipating an inch or less here.

      1. Wswplz says:

        Ya, I’m afraid your correct…I would be pleased with a sold inch to 1.5, since we have a good chance of getting a real snow around the corner on Monday. :)

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Real snow, so your saying were going to get fake snow tonight haha, I’m just teasing you!

        2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          We had a west wind today and it was completely sunny outside… I guess we are officially finished with the LE snow for a while.

        3. Wswplz says:

          Yes, haven’t you heard about the chemically enhanced snow which cannot melt!

  17. John (Norton Shores) says:

    WZZM still has 50 on Thursday, I don’t think they’ve checked out the latest guidance

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      They have 41 now, so they must have just updated their forecast. Im hoping this downward trend of temperatures continues for the next few days so we can avoid that messy wintery mix!

  18. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    5 more weeks of winter and COLD and SNOW! I love it! ROCK N ROLL will never die!

  19. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Highs for Thursday from different stations

    WZZM: 50
    WOODTV: 45
    WWMT: 43
    FOX17: 45

    1. Wswplz says:

      Haven’t looked up Acculess or weather trends, but I’m sure it’s around 55-58

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Acculess has 38 surprisingly.

    2. Paul m says:

      Storm system not even hit the west coast yet!

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      NWS GR shows only one day over 40 through next Saturday.

  20. Due to the harsh winter gas prices keep rising and rising without any excuses!!!

    1. Jack says:

      Pure & Simple….GREED !!! Stay Cued……. ;-)

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Capitalism at it’s finest. If the Comcast merger goes through, I expect the cost to go even higher. I may go back to Direct TV.

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Comcast merger? I have them now, haven’t heard of this.

        1. Jack says:

          Yeah, Ifmy memory serves me correctly , a merger or buy out of Time- Warner ! ( I think) !! Hoping the Price does not go Up. Might have to Give up watching t.V. ;-)

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          $45B. Huge money.

      2. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

        The trouble with Direct TV, Dish Network, or any other firm that uses the small satellite dishes for reception, is that when it rains or snows (common in W. Michigan), you lose the signal. I hope the acquisition is blocked by the FTC, it creates a huge monopoly with Charter & Comcast almost with 100% control of the cable TV industry. No competition means no innovation or easing of prices for John Q. Public. I’m 100% in favor of capitalism, but this deal is not good for the consumer. We’ll just get hosed.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I’ve had Direct before, and I didn’t lose signal very many times.

          You’re right about corporate monopolization. I sure wish we had a choice for utilities. Most states do.

      3. Wswplz says:

        Direct TV is much better anyways, in my opinion( have comcast now ) at least for sports, and I’m usually watching just that. I didn’t here that they were still trying for the merger, there was some push back if I remember correctly, and I thought it fell through…guess we shall see.

    3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It is not due to the harsh winter. The gas and oil companies use that as an EXCUSE.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Truth.

  21. Brian(Grandville) says:

    I noticed that too. I passed up gas for 2.29 in Kzoo this morning, thinking I could get it for that on the way home. I also noticed when I was in Mason Wednesday, the roads were absolutely horrible. I believe Cedar St. was among the worst.

    1. Wswplz says:

      $ 2.29 for gas and you passed it up?? I’ll drive 65 miles one way to get gas at that price lol. Typo…I’m sure..

  22. Jack says:

    Might be able To Catch the Northern Lights 2- Nite !! Key Word…MIGHT ! See here :: http://www.softservenews.com/. Stay cued & and Keep Looking Up !! Yay….GOD!!! ;-) .

  23. Wow do the plows even plow Van Buren County? I was in Decatur and the back roads and country roads are still snow covered. Suprised they haven’t plowed it yet. Ohh and gas in Decatur is 3.28. Good place to fill up

  24. Jack says:

    Update Re: ” Northern Lghts” tonight !!!!!!!!!! Latest Forecast = in 51 minutes, the Aurora will be at STORM LEVEL! (It is On!!) woooohooooo !!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Rats. I just looked, and our sky is hazy, with low clouds to the north. They’ll have to be bright to see them through that…..

  25. Jack says:

    And another UPDATE ::: The Space Environment Center’s Neural Net Program estimates that . . .

    in 12 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.33 — at STORM LEVEL! (It is On!!)
    in 25 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.33 — at STORM LEVEL! (It is On!!)
    in 41 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.67 — at STORM LEVEL! Nice Kp number !!! Wooohooo ! Stay Cued !!! ;-)

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Jack, does that mean we should see something in 12 m i nutes, or that we’ll see something when the storm hits our atmosphere?

      1. Jack says:

        Good Question, I don’t have a Answer ! Maybe some One could Help Us Out HERE ??

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          I’m not seeing anything on the web about potential sightings…??

        2. Barry in Zeeland says:

          No way to have exact times, just a guess. All the links I have are satellite estimated viewing areas, not real live peoples on the ground. Here’s a bunch of good ones:

          http://spaceweather.com/

          http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapN.gif

          http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/

          http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm

          http://www.geo.mtu.edu/weather/aurora/

        3. Jack says:

          Well, all I know is the Higher ( no pun intended))). Kp Index is when we get a Shot at Seeing The Beauty of The Northern Lights !! I’ve witnessed Them Many of Times in my Life , and They CanBe BREATH TAKING !!! YAY,,,, GOD !!!!

        4. GunLakeDeb says:

          Spaceweather confirms a storm, but not saying much about the northern lights?

  26. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    This evening is one of the first times this winter where the snow on the roads makes that crunchy, Frozen sound.

  27. Ya, now the high clouds roll in when we have a good chance of seeing N lights!never fails!

  28. Brian(Grandville) says:

    I just outdid myself with this last batch of chili I made, can’t stop eating it!
    The snow to the west continues to break up, saw that coming.

  29. GunLakeDeb says:

    I’ll check again in a little bit

  30. mk says:

    Hey Dan wants to be part of a record deer starvation, cool.

  31. Elizabeth (NE GR) says:

    I’m part of the “done with winter crowd” and I’m normally pro snow storms group. My other half shattered his ankle on the ice last month. I teach on the lakeshore so I have a 35 minute commute on a nice day that has consistently been 50+ minutes one way the past month and a half. One of the cranky neighbors called on my sidewalk that I hadn’t been able to get to due to working late helping the kids practice (in an attempt to make up some of the time we lost from snow days). And our heating and electricity bills are high given the cold temps and the fact he is home all day now. I think I at least am validated in my grumpiness. If it has to snow Monday, at least let it dump a foot. This fiur inch, world still goes on but its slick as snot stuff is breaking me.

  32. on the Grand says:

    I with you, I do love the snow, but the dull grey cold days have just done me.I have shoveled snowplowed and hauled that snow every which way and to say I have picked a few fights with the nasty city street cleaners that pile the snow knee to hip deep in front of my two driveways, and if you dont remove the street junk right away, it turns to ice. I have piles of snow up past the stop signs and dont ask me where the mailbox is, I am sure I will find it in the summertime. The gutters are full of snow and ice the roof is a mess and I am tire of raking it, those rakes are not an easy toy and my arms are sore. I freeze because we keep the heat low and I have to watch every night for frozen pipes because they run on an outside wall. Now I have to pray that all that street snow does not end up in my garage because I am at the bottoms of the hill. I also have a river to think of and 12 hungry deer in the back yard, that are now digging it up to chop on the grass. I know I am not the only one with worries but you can only play in the snow for so long before it becomes dirty and old.It is time for Spring.

  33. mr. negative says:

    Gun Lake Winterfest Bikini Contest??…Gun Lake Deb failed to mention this -

    1. Jack says:

      Hey, mr. Negative. PHOTOS Here for Your Viewing Pleasure !! https://www.facebook.com/GunLakeWinterfestOfficial. :-) . Stay cued…..

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        I’m not seeing any skin. What gives, to cold.

        1. Jack says:

          Ha, ” Skin to Win” !!!!! Lol…. Stay cued…. ;-)

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