Cool, then Warmer, then back to CoolFebruary 15th, 2014 at 3:54 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Saturday AM model update: The European has 1/2-1″ of snow Sat. night for G.R., 0.40″ Monday (4″ of snow). The one warm day on the European is Thursday, where it briefly takes us to 53° with highs only in the mid-upper 30s Tues., Weds., and Fri. It has some snow or a mix on Sunday the 23rd. The NAM also has pretty good snow for us Monday with as much as 9.6″ for Mt. Pleasant (cut in half would still be nearly 5″), 8.2″ for Big Rapids, 5.2″ for Holland, 5.8″ for Grand Rapids, 3.3″ for Kalamazoo and 5.5″ for Muskegon. That model has 1/2″ -1″ of snow Sat. night. The GFS (caribou) has 1/2″ of snow for G.R. Sat. night and just 1.4″ on Monday (2.2″ for Kalamazooo, 1.7″ for Big Rapids. The GFS plot might get us to 2″ of snow Monday, but it never brings in the warm air, with highs beginning Tues. of 33, 34, 37, and 31, and only light showers on Thurs. The FIM model agrees with the European, bring the low on Thurs. west of us and getting us into the warm air. The Canadian looks a touch slower. We’ll need another 24-hours for the system to get into the balloon data in the Western U.S. to have a better idea of how warm we’ll get and how much rain we’ll see. Note the 8-14 day outlooks for Feb. 22-28 from CPC posted here. with the darker blue (the highest probably of cold) centered right over Michigan and also above average precipitation (more snow).
From GRR NWS: We have set a record for the most number of consecutive days with more than 20″ of snow on the ground in G.R…from Feb. 5-14. The old record was 9 days set in 1936 and again in 1979. The 23″ snow depth from the 7th to 10th tied the record for the deepest snow cover in February set on Feb. 16-17, 1936. We have now had only one day warmer than average in the last four weeks. Today (Sat.) is the 68th consecutive day with 4″ or more of snow on the ground. If the GFS is right, we could hang onto a 4″ snow cover into at least the first week of March.
We’re off to a very slow start to the tornado season. We have had only four tornadoes so far this year…all weak EF0 tornadoes on Jan. 11th (the one listed in Feb. for Ft. Meade, Florida turns out to be 50 mph winds from a t-storm. In 2013 (a near-record low number of tornadoes), we had 75 tornadoes in January alone and in 2012, we had 79 tornadoes in January.
Enjoy your weekend!