Severe Thunderstorms??!!February 17th, 2014 at 12:44 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
WOW, look at this! The image on the left indicates the Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Risk area for Thursday (in red) and Friday (in purple). The Day 4 (Thurs.) outlook actually comes up into SW Lower Michigan! It scrapes the southern part of the state from extreme southern St. Joseph Co. near Sturgis east to Monroe County! SPC says: “EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON — FROM SRN IL/ERN MO SSWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION…IN A LINEAR CONFIGURATION NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM…IT APPEARS THE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ROLLS EWD. IN ADDITION…A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE — MAINLY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICES WITHIN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.” The National Weather Service Office in N. Webster, Indiana has 11″ of snow on the ground and they’ll be over a foot tomorrow am! The outlook area covers parts of 16 states! Personally, I think the best bet for severe is toward the Ohio and Lower Mississippi Valleys. The northern part of the outlook area would see a greater chance of small hail if they saw anything at all with the cold temperatures. I’ve said before it’s hard to get tornadoes when the surface air temperature is colder than 60 degrees…and it’ll be hard to get that warm where there is snow on the ground. Climatologically, tornadoes don’t occur where there is a general snowcover.