Long-Term Weather Looks Cold

February 18th, 2014 at 10:57 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

610temp.new    814temp.newThese images are from the Climate Prediction Center.   The map on the left is for the 6-10 day period (Feb. 24-28) and the second is for the 8-14 day period (Feb. 26-Mar. 4).  The maps show areas where the lead forecasters think it will be warmer then average (in red/orange/tan) and colder than average (shades of blue get darker as their confidence increases in colder than average temperatures).   As you can see, much of the country east of the Rockies is expected to have colder than average weather for late February and early March.  The core of the cold is centered over the Western Great Lakes.  Individual model maps are all pretty much in agreement that Michigan will have below to much below average temperatures.  I can’t show you the European Weekly Maps, but they hold onto the colder than average pattern into mid-March.   Average high temperatures are in the mid 30s now, rise to the upper 30s by the end of the month, to 40° on March 5th, to 45° on March 17th and to 50° on March 28th.

37 Responses to “Long-Term Weather Looks Cold”

  1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    I’m ready for a pineapple express to head our way.

  2. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

    I love the fact that it’s been 40 or better for at least 8 hours and doesn’t seem to be falling. Melt. Melt. Melt.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Falling off fast, went from 41 an hour ago down to 35 now

      1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

        Not at my house. Still 39.4 at midnight.

    2. Barry in Zeeland says:

      Yes, several peoples on here guaranteed it would not get above freezing today, yet it was 45 out. That’s only a miss of about 15 degrees. This time of the year whenever the sun is out, it will almost always be warmer than what anyone predicts. Suns angle is rising daily.

      1. Wswplz says:

        So I just looked at the forecasted high tomorrow is 30 deg with a west wind and partly sunny. Wouldn’t that be quite a bit low….I mean I hit 42-43 today. If we do get temps around 40 tomorrow with the rain and moderate temps Thursday , we will have a good amount of snow melt in my opinion.

        1. Barry in Zeeland says:

          Agreed. More often than not they will undershoot high temps this time of the year. It’s almost like they forget to factor in the sun of all things.

        2. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Rain will absorb into the snow on Thirsday compacting the snow, so yes it will look like we lose some snow but we really don’t lose much it just gets weighted down more, why so many peole are concerned about roof collapse

        3. Wswplz says:

          What is your definition John of not much snow melt?

        4. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Well in terms of rain absorbing into snow, it compacts the snow so it may look like we list 10″ of snow but we really didn’t lose that much the rain just absorbed into the snow “flattening it more”

        5. Wswplz says:

          Ya, I’m just trying to figure out the major difference in the weather pattern from today vs yesterday? Unless the sun doesn’t come out…

        6. John (Norton Shores) says:

          *lost* sorry I’m tired lol!

        7. Barry in Zeeland says:

          It will be easier walking around the yard once it freezes solid again. Instead of sinking in 2 feet, you might almost be able to walk on top of it!

        8. Wswplz says:

          Well in my humble opinion I think we will loose 10″ easy, just me..

        9. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Yeah we will lose 10″ but what will happen is we will have more liquid in the snow than previous

        10. Wswplz says:

          * sorry meant 6″

        11. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Whatever amount we lose the big story I think will be the flooding

        12. Wswplz says:

          Ya, I’m with ya on the water being absorbed by the snow pack, I’m just thinking we may loose 2″ tomorrow if temps get in the 40s again and then some will melt Thursday. Next week looks to get real cold.

  3. kathy cook says:

    bill i have been watching you for more years then i can remember. i have always admired you very much. now the hard part as i follow these weather patterns and the national weather and the world weather. i see very disturbing things everywhere everyday concerning the weather. why is there no mention of how drastic our climate is changing?and so very fast. the weather channel CNN and all local news never talks about this and its so very eve-dent. our planet is very sick, but nearer a word on how to fix it. or maybe its to late i hope not. sincerely Kathy c.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I thoroughly disagree with your premise. Climate is not changing drastically. Global temperatures have been remarkably stable over the past 13 years: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif Last year we had a near record low number of tornadoes and there has been no increase in strong tornadoes (EF3 to EF5). We have not gone the longest period of time ever without a Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the U.S. The drought the mid 1930s and the heat of the mid 1930s has not been exceeded. Media has allowed us to see weather events like we didn’t see them 70 years ago. My job is to give short-term (relatively to climate) weather forecasts, so that’s what I do on TV. I do expand on what interests me on the blog. I admire your sincere concern, Kathy – but IMHO the extreme climate change cause (formerly global warming before it stopped warming) has been based less in science than in political and media-driven hyperbole.

  4. Wswplz says:

    Wow, the 6-10 outlook is 90% for below average temps, and there isn’t a 95% probability so I would assume they are fairly confident that we remain in a deep freeze. Just as we catch a glimpse of spring, old man winter shows he has other plans.

  5. Wswplz says:

    I think your right John, if these upcoming cold predictions verify and we stay well below average into mid- late March we may be in trouble. That’s not to mention what snow and rain we accumulate. Something that will be closely watched I’m sure.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Oh yeah for sure, the rain on Thursday spells bigger problems for what’s to come this spring

  6. Jack says:

    CUE::
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YArMfcMvltc
    Artist: Rich Mullins
    Album: Rich Mullins
    Released: 1986

  7. Wswplz says:

    So possible 45+ mph wind gusts on Thursday pm / Friday am that would sure top off the already complicated forecast of rain, sleet, freezing rain , snow and all the complications that arise with having snow already on the ground. Sounds like a mess.!

    1. Jack says:

      Well, I got my Fingers for Some THUNDER!! Or EAR CANDY as I like To Call It ! Stay Cued !

  8. Jack says:

    *crossed* …. I need another Hit !! Lol…. ;-)

    1. Wswplz says:

      Haha…never hurts.

    2. Wswplz says:

      So I think you might call that ” bowl lighting ” hehe

  9. Resourceful Nana says:

    I sure wish those maps would include Canada! I know it’s a different country, but for crying out loud, we’re all part of the same continental land mass.

  10. fixxxer says:

    So much for a spring this year.

  11. kent county says:

    Expecting to lose no less than a foot of snow today and tommorow. Get ready for dirty cars and brown snowbanks.

    1. Irish coffee says:

      Correct you are sir!…..many UNDER-estimate snow loss(especially this time of year)…After having 24″ OG in GR , i expect snow OG to be </= 10" by FRi am(in GR)

      1. Irish coffee says:

        I’ll even go so far as to say-given expected winds + dewpts- there should be OPEN/bare ground in spots

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