Rain, Wind, Freeze-Up, Snow, Cold

February 19th, 2014 at 11:27 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local Radar updates automatically.

Overnight computer model runs:   The NAM starts precipitation around 8-10 am in G.R. as rain at 32 degrees in G.R. with rain and the temp. hanging at 33 much of the day, rising to a max of 44 around 11 pm.  The winds ramp. up after midnight with a steady 23-28 mph steady and gusts probably to 40 mph from midnight thru Friday – it stays breezy on Saturday. The temperature is back below freezing by 5 am and 28 by 7 am (so everything ices up for the Fri. am commute.  Oh, I’m not done yet…then the NAM (caribou) prints out 3.4″ of snowfall from 5 am to 4 pm (that looks overdone).  Saturday gets to 31.      The GFS plot has rain beginning in the 6-8 am time period with the temperature right at 32 degrees.   We’re up to 35 around noon, 40 at around 7 pm and peaking at 48 before the cold front blasts thru…send the temp. back to the upper 20s by daybreak (freeze-up).  The model prints out 1-2″ of snow with the wind whipping at 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph from late Thurs. night into Friday evening…it’s still breezy (20 mph) on Saturday.  The GFS plot has temps. in the mid 20s Sat. and low 20s. Sunday…then…this is unbelievable…we stay below 20 deg. for over a week with the 850 mb temperature falling to -31C on 2/28 and daytime temperatures running from zero to +5 on the 28th and 3/1 and +5 to +10 on 3/2.    On  that model, G.R. doesn’t get back to freezing (32°) until 3/8!  OK – probably overdone…but this is a heavy duty shot of Siberian air that’s coming!!      OK The European is in…certainly a chance of a t-shower today, esp. SE of G.R.  This model gives G.R. 1/2″ of rain today.  It has our temperature at 32 during the AM commute..only to 34 at noon, 37 at 6 pm….it shoots up to 50 briefly, before shooting back to the low 30s for daybreak Friday.  We get a shot of about an inch of snow Fri. am with 30 mph winds.  Friday stays windy all day as temps. fall to the mid 20s.  Saturday is mid 20s, Sunday low 20s.  We get at least a dusting of snow Monday pm, Tues. and Weds. and it just gets colder!  The Euro. has highs of 20 on Monday, 19 on Tuesday,12 on Weds., 4 on Thurs…and it has lows down below zero Thurs. Fri. and Sat. with -14 Friday and -10 on Saturday AM.  If we go totally clear and calm with this air mass…we could see some readings hit -20°.  Now, the record coldest high temp. in G.R. on 2/28 is 21° in 1900 and 1923.   The coldest high temp. ever in G.R. on 3/1 is 13° in 1962.  Both of those look like they’re in jeopardy.   Right now I’m 80% sure than March will be another month with colder than average temperatures.  Look at the incredible cold over much of N. America on 2/28.  “A Textbook Arctic Blast!“  Extreme Cold.   Here’s a nice aurora pic. from early Weds.

AGAIN, I’m worried about any additional snow and especially the rain being absorbed into the snow creating the potential for more roof collapses (esp. flat roofs).  Check out the links below:

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers. Here’s Closings.

24 Responses to “Rain, Wind, Freeze-Up, Snow, Cold”

  1. dereks says:

    Hey Bill, is Montcalm county looking at quite bit of freezing rain?

  2. Cort S. says:

    03Z run of the HRRR model showing thunderstorms tomorrow morning in association with the warm front and nose of the low-level jet:

    Click Here

    1. Cort S. says:

      Hello Eastern time zone, I guess it’s already tomorrow morning for you guys.

    2. Jack says:

      Wow”"”.Weather Junkie or Geek ….Thread Title BILL!! Should Be a VERY VERY VERYVERY Intresting Next 36 Hrs.or So. HANG ON TIGHT GANG!!! Also Nice Link Mr. CORT !! Stay CUED.”.. U All !!!! ;-)

  3. Cort S. says:

    SPC’s probabilities of severe thunderstorm winds, associated with the cold front later in the day:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif

    They note:

    “Farther north over northern portions Indiana/Ohio and Lower Michigan… severe wind potential diminishes due to progressively weaker buoyancy. Also… loss of surface-based parcels is expected in relation to progressively deeper stable layer with northward extent… atop snow pack. Meanwhile… even for those strong/near-severe gusts that can penetrate to surface… substantial tree damage/toppling also becomes less probable with northward extent due to frozen ground and lack of leaves.”

    1. Jack says:

      Well, That’s Good News I Guess … I just want to INDULGE My Ears into Some THUNDER Candy. And See Some Lightning Flashes to Top The CANDY INDULGENCE off,!!, stay CANDY CUED!!

  4. Cort S. says:

    Here is the NSSL’s WRF model simulated radar of this storm system:

    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/refl_loop.html

    1. Wswplz says:

      Can we channel those boomers a little to the north plz.

      1. Jack says:

        Now That is Sweet as Well CORT ! Beautiful Colors … Keep the Links ahhhh FLOWING… :-)

      2. Wswplz says:

        Definitely the coolest wind mar in the history of…well wind map histoy. Good stuff.

    1. Jack says:

      Love it…Thanks CORT !!! Yes I spotted The LOW !!

  5. Jack says:

    Good Morning and Happy THERAPUTIC THURSDAY !!!! cue,,,,, STRAY CATS :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7wKn-K_0_k. Yeah,,,,, STRAY CUED!! West Michigan….. ;-)

  6. Jack says:

    A little Weather History from NWS G.R. On February 20 in Southwest Lower Michigan…

    2/20/1898
    A snowstorm dumps over a foot of snow on parts of Lower Michigan on the 20th to the 21st. Grand Rapids has 11 inches from this storm and almost 30 inches for the month of February.
    2/20/1951
    Ice jam flooding along the Grand River in Portland damages several buildings and forces the evacuation of some neighborhoods near the river.
    Stay Cued !!

  7. Jack says:

    Another Theraputic Thursday TUNE, CUE:::: Pink Floyd – Pigs (Three different Ones) – YouTube
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOqblSqx_VI
    ;-)

  8. Jack says:

    Lightning Right NOW !! http://www.lightningstorm.com/explorer_files/lts-image.jpg?foo=1392886936882. It’s a Coming our Way !! Stay Cued, “………. ;-)

  9. Wswplz says:

    Ahh I wondered where the late night party was….I was at the wrong party.lol. I left a message for Bill on the other thread about his convective outlook map, but it looks like he must saw it was day 2 since it’s correct now. See yea tomorrow Jack on the ice rink!

    1. Jack says:

      Oh Tay…wswplz….. ;-)

      1. Wswplz says:

        Lol, blast from de past…

        1. Jack says:

          Here ya Go wswplz,,,, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78mrkwgvVRY. Hee, heee….stay cued,,,,,, ;-)

  10. Jack says:

    Keep a Eye on The Winds HERE ::: hint.fm/wind/

  11. Psalmon says:

    Bill any good source for Freezing Degree Days FDD so far this year? I’ve got the numbers for 1994 and am wondering how close we are to those. It’s a good indicator as you know on where we will end up. AMS paper on 1994 here has the numbers (great paper BTW, loaded with stuff):

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477%281996%29077%3C0071%3AWWAICF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

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