Sunday PM

February 23rd, 2014 at 1:57 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Winter - Barn Harvey Alley    Lots of sunshine this PM – a few lake-effect stratocumulus clouds passing by.   There are more clouds in NW Lower Michigan where the air is colder and the lake has been able to produce flurries.  Heavy lake-effect snow is falling at Houghton, where the temperature is 9  and the wind chill factor is -10.  The winds on Friday broke up a lot of ice on the Great Lakes (see thread below) and there’s a lot more open water (see satellite loop).  My solar panels are cranking out a nice flow of +90° air right now.  The wind knocked a lot of snow off the roofs and trees.  I passed a roof collapse on W. River Dr. west of Samrick on the river side of the road in Comstock Park.  We’ll have several episodes of light snow this week and temperatures will remain much colder than average.   The average high temperature for G.R. is now up to 36.  At 1 pm it was 24 in G.R., 21 in Muskegon and just 15 in Cadillac with flurries.  The wind chill factor is 10 in G.R. and zero in Cadillac.  Very cold air covering N. Plains, Great Lakes and most of Northeast (and S. Canada) this week.    There is little doubt that the cold pattern will continue at least through the 2nd week of March.   WeatherBell forecasting temperatures 4-5 degrees colder than average for Michigan in March – looks pretty good considering cold start first two weeks.  Impressive cold in middle Asia.  North America temperature anomaly for Feb. 1-22 was -0.1711°C.  Global anomaly for Feb. 1-22 was +0.018C.   Los Angeles may receive at least half the rain that fell in 2013 (3.60″) from 1 storm Fri through next weekend.   Partly cloudy and 80 deg. in Daytona (500 race) at 1 pm, but a cold front is approaching with showers and t-storms.  It’s only 58 and raining at Gainesville.  A sure red flag as the storms arrive in the next 1-2 hours.   35.2% of the Lower 48 states has a snow cover...thick snow from MN-WI-MI into New England, meager snow in the California Mtns.   Global sea ice now less than one standard deviation from average…Arctic sea ice extent about the same as last year, highest for the date in the last 7 yearsAntarctic ice remains approximately 2 standard deviations above average.

The morning run of the GFS is relentlessly cold…it has high temperature in G.R. for the next 10 days of 16, 19, 9, 15, 18, 17, 16, 19, 17, 15.  That’s probably a little too cool, but you get the general idea.  The next 32-degree temp. on that model is March 11!  The general storm track will remain south of Michigan, but we’ll get periods of (mostly light) lake-effect snow showers and a little snow from upper level disturbances in the northern Polar flow.       Picture by Harvey Alley.

61 Responses to “Sunday PM”

  1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    Heat cranked up to 74, sun shining in windows and Daytona 500 on TV, starting to feel like Spring time

  2. Dan says:

    Great photo! Sun is bright but cold temps!

  3. Ispotasnowflake says:

    Go Blue!!! Good win today!

    1. Cupcake says:

      Boo….

  4. Jack says:

    Question for Harvey Alley !! Is The Pic.of The Barn Taken on Wood Worth , in Plainfield Township ?? Beautiful Pic. Harvey !!

    1. Bruno (Northview H.S.) says:

      That is the “Woodworth Farm” barn. I drive past it everyday (it is about 1/4 mile from my house). There are usually 2 beautiful horses and 2 mules there, but haven’t seen the 2 horses the last few weeks, just the mules.

  5. Kris says:

    Too much to read……

  6. Dianne says:

    Whatever happened to El Niño and La Niña? Have they abandoned us?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Right now it’s in the middle…we call it “La Nada”

  7. Jack says:

    BILL, I hoping for The Skies to stay CLEAR. For the ISS 6 minute FLYOVER This Evening !! Stay Cued ya…All & KEEP LOOKING + God Bless…. :-) . spotthestation.nasa.gov/sightings/.

  8. GunLakeDeb says:

    Sheesh – they’ll never get the Daytona 500 run today… the rain isn’t going to give them a break, I’m afraid…

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Another tornado warning just south of them, and more storms firing just southwest of them heading northwest, they might have to cancel the race today.

  9. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

    I just saw pictures of a confirmed tornado south of the Daytona International Speedway that could be seen in the distance.

    1. I am seeing a picture taken in the grand stands that is a “possible” Waterspout, but it cannot be officially confirmed given that the picture was taken at such a far distance. So it is not confirmed

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Confirmed tornado on the ground right now just north of Orlando.

    1. Crap I know someone who lives just north of Orlando. I guess I should flip them a text

      1. Is the tornado anywhere near the town of Apopka?

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          I think it was just north of Apopka, it’s out of that area now.

        2. Ok because the person I know lives 5 miles east of Apopka

  11. Dan says:

    Are they going to be able to resume the race or is it still active in the area? Was there damage from.the touchdown I hope not. Most of all I hope nobody was hurt!

  12. John (Norton Shores) says:

    I think they are going to cancel the Daytona 500, still raining their and it takes a while to dry the track afterwards, or they may turn it into a night race, something of those two options.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Not cancel but reschedule.

  13. Marti B. (36th/Kalamazoo SE area) says:

    Sick. Of. Subzero. Temperatures! Wondering what kind of spring/summer we’re going to have. :)

  14. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    This article made me laugh. I like Jim Cantore, but the writer makes it seem surprising that Jim would tweet about it. Jim doesn’t exactly stay calm during times of intense weather… Haha

    http://www.sbnation.com/nascar/2014/2/23/5440110/daytona-500-live-results-2014-weather-tornado-postponed

    1. Jack says:

      Hey Matt I Like This Line in the Artiicle ::: And as if on cue, phones throughout the media center buzzed in unison when a tornado warning was officially issued for Volusia County. Lol…..any ideas Why ?… Ha,ha,…..STAY CUED!!!! ;-)

  15. Jack says:

    Hey Bill & Gang it’s Looking Like The Skies are Gonna be CLEAR for The ISS flyover this Evening !! Hopefully we can Enjoy a Nice 6 minute View at 6:52 pm !!! Stay Cued & Keep Looking UP,,,Blessings ::::::: Sun Feb 23, 6:52 PM 6 min 55° 10 above NW 11 above ESE  

    1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

      Just watched it! Thanks for the cue Jack!

  16. Still waiting to see my first 60 show up in the 8 day forecast. It will come at some point in March, its just a matter of when. I hope it comes sooner than later! But I guess things could be worse, it could only be November 23 and we are just entering winter

    1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

      I know many are anxious for 60 degree weather but the best way to melt the snow with the least amount of flooding is for several days with temps in the 30s and 40s. We should be so lucky.

      1. Id be ok with 30s and 40s right now. Anything other than these temps in the teens and low 20′s

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Totally agree!

      3. mk says:

        I agree, yet rocky and Dan prefer lots of cold an snow for march. Which assures a rapid melt the longer we go toward spring. Lots of flooding then, but the quest for records must go on bring it!!

  17. Cort S. says:

    That photo of the tornado near Daytona was fake. Well, the photo was real, but the dark spot connecting the cloud to the ground was shopped. As far as I can see, there have been no confirmed tornadoes in Florida today.

  18. Jack says:

    Breaking News…….The Scheduled Re STart is On CUE,,,, at Daytona,,,,, Track is Dry it’s TIME 2 start me UP!!! CUE. The Rolling Stones – Start Me Up – Official Promo – YouTube
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGyOaCXr8Lw
    heck….YES.. Stay CUED!!!!!! ;-)

  19. dereks says:

    Hey Bill,
    Do you use your solar panels to heat your home or are you just talking about the sun beating off them?

  20. Well its official, I am getting my dream to finally come true, My parents have it set in stone that I will get the chance to storm chase in the plain states this summer. I NEVER thought this would come true!! I know I will never forget this spring and summer. Even if I don’t see a tornado out there, just getting the opportunity is something that I would never pass up. I would enjoy a little bit more information on Supercell Thunderstorms and what to look for such as where the likely spot for rotation to occur or how to identify where the hail shaft would be, because getting pelted by baseball size hail would not be good. As well as just any other miscellaneous information in regards the the nature of supercells. I would appreciate it very much. Thanks!!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Have fun Kyle, I here it’s supposed to be a better season for severe weather and tornadoes in the plains this year, so you picked the right year.

      1. Sweet!! But idk if you know much about supercells, but I definantly need more information. Anything will be much appreciated

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Make sure you have a good high resolution radar site available.

      1. Any suggestions on good ones to use? I am told Radarscope is good

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Its a $10 app., but worth a lot more then that. You will love it.

    3. Cort S. says:

      Are you chasing with a tour group?

  21. I know that there are differences in certain supercells, such as some are High Precipitation (HP) and Low Precipitation (LP) as well as multicell

    1. Jack says:

      Whoops mine Didn’t Work, But Johns DID !!! Have Fun Young Man and Keep US, posted as you begin Journey Chasing The PERFECT STORM !! We Will….stay Cued…For YA!!!!! Whoops….. * YOUR JOURNEY *. God Bless…… ;-)

    2. Wswplz says:

      Not sure if your going with a group Kyle, however it sounds like you may not be. I would suggest going with someone who has experience, and also take a course or two, instead of trial by fire so to speak. Anyways I hope you have fun, make sure and be safe and always know the direction of the storms, have an exit plan, finally observe from a distance, so you come back in one peace.

      1. Wswplz says:

        You should ask Cort to give you some advice on storm chasing.

  22. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Heres a link on supercells Kyle, hope it helps.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/supercell.php

  23. Jack says:

    Try This Kyle for a Starter !! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercell

  24. John (Grand Rapids) says:

    How are there any schools closed tomorrow?!

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Whoever is closed…they may be closed for the next week. My guess is the dirt roads are a sheet of ice…but no end in sight for that.

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Roads are still drifted over severely from Friday in those areas, those back road areas topically don’t get plowed for a week.

    3. Jack says:

      SCHOOL!!!!!! CUE :::::: Alice Cooper-Schools out – YouTube
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qga5eONXU_4
      Lol…stay Cued …..KIDS!!! ;-)

    4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Zzzzzzzzz

  25. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    As usual, the GFS and NAM are at odds about snow the next several days. The NAM has us getting an inch or two of lake effect snow, while the GFS shows are Northwest of GR getting 3 to 6 inches. The NAM is usually the one that picks up on LES…so that is why I say they disagree. Yet again. Haha

  26. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Getting some light snow right now which is being blown around by the winds.

  27. Bernie at the lakeshore says:

    I tapped trees Tuesday and I ended up just a couple gallons short of enough sap to cook up a batch of sugar. So I guess it will stay frozen for a while. Last year I was making syrup on Feb. 14.

  28. Wswplz says:

    The Daytona 500 ended up being a great race, JR was on fire! I think he smiled more after the race then he has in a decade, good to se him get a win after being dry since Michigan ( 2012 ). Nice to have Nascar back in action on the weekends!

  29. Wswplz says:

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

    You weren’t kidding Bill when you said Ca is going to see some heavy rain / snow if this map verifies, wow!

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