Cold and Getting Colder

February 25th, 2014 at 3:45 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   We’ll continue to see occasional flurries overnight, but an inch or less accumulation in most areas overnight.   The wind will continue to be brisk at times, especially tomorrow PM (Wed.) and that will cause more drifting.   The Thursday AM commute looks tough, with snow, blowing and drifting snow and a strong NW wind gusting to 30 mph.  There will likely be some schools closed on Thurs.   It’ll be interesting to see if we go clear and calm for early Friday morning.  The European model gives G.R. a low temp. of -11 early Friday and that’s certainly possible if it’s truly clear and calm with a coating of fresh snow.   The new European weekly forecasts from overnight show more cold (relative to average) for the next 3 weeks…some moderation week 4.  High temperatures from the GFS plot run from last night starting with today (Tues.)  20/11  (up to 16 briefly Weds. night)/7/21/14/21/23/20/12/19/24.   That’s the next 11 days.  It’s probably a touch on the cool side, but wow!  That’s relentless cold for a week and a half.  The GFS-plot has -7 for Friday AM.   Here’s March 6-11 – coldest air relative to average centered over Chicago.   Much needed rain for Southern California.   We could see enough snow to move into 2nd place for snowiest seasons by early next week here in G.R.  Grand Rapids is now up to 103.4″ and Muskegon to 122″.   Chicago’s average temp since Dec. 1 is 19.1 F;  Moscow, Russia’s average is 23.6 F.

Also, Flooding in BrazilLight Pillars in Alberta, Canada…In two hours, the temperature dropped from 63° to 25° in Denver, CO.  More snow has fallen so far this winter in NYC (57.1″) & Philadephia (58.4″) than in Anchorage, AK (53.7″).  Five-day precipitation shows California the wettest U.S. state, much needed rain.  We may catch the northern edge of a storm that goes mainly southeast of Michigan this weekend.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers. Here’s Closings.

246 Responses to “Cold and Getting Colder”

  1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Wow, it is really showing hard in Charlotte right now. Went from nothing to roads covered in just a few minutes.

  2. Wswplz says:

    You know it’s been really cold when NWS says there is going to be a slight moderation in temps over the weekend and the our forecasted temps are Sat. night 0 Sun. 14 Sun. night 4…I’m starting to think mid 20′s would just be balmy..

  3. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z NAM…this shows a lot more snow from the clipper tomorrow night than the GFS…also shows a system coming in later this week. The 18Z GFS is not very strong with the system later this week.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      That is looking AWESOME baby!

  4. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z GFS…this goes out 5 days, and much of this is from a system coming later in the weekend. Quite a few differences from the NAM, but both show quite a bit of snow.

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GRR

    1. Wswplz says:

      So maybe 3-6″ for most inland areas 5-8″ for the usual suspects during the next 4 days sounds pretty close the way these maps verify.

      1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

        Is that area of heavier snow on the GFS by the Indiana border counties the result of one storm or several?

        1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

          It showed a longer duration moderate snow event starting around Saturday evening and lasting through Sunday.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Looks fantastic! Bring it!

  5. Wswplz says:

    This is an interesting tool to measure accuracy in forecast vs compared to observed at different values…I had forgotten they had this.
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/verification/mode/mode.php#page=page-1

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Good Stuff!

  6. Mike M. says:

    I’ve been really busy. What is GR at for total snowfall this winter?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      By Monday AM we will be well over 107 inches and firmly in second place for the most SNOW ever in GR! INCREDIBLE!

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Monday morning. Who knows, maybe by Friday morning.

  7. Just as a season snowfall update, I am at 108″ so far for the season here in Byron Center

  8. Dan says:

    Going to 3rd place, 2nd place or 1st place?

    1. Jack says:

      I Think -2nd Place is ” Easy Money”…… CUE::: Billy Joel – Easy Money – YouTube
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6xp54Y39uM
      $$$$$$$$,,,,, STAY CUED…Dan… ;-)

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      2nd place has been a lock for about three weeks now! The only question is #1! It is still possible!

      1. Jack says:

        Any Thing is possible….Rocky,,, Will it be ” Easy” is The Question. Hence another” Easy” TUNE…..CUE:::: Grateful Dead – Easy Wind (Studio Version) – YouTube
        ► 5:02► 5:02
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nivOqZI5vXo
        Enjoy….OLE DEAD HEADS!!! & Stay CUED….. ;-)

      2. GB says:

        Look kid everyone knows it will be cold until March 20 or so.

        You screaming in everyone’s face is just anoying. It makes you look like a D-bag.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          And calling people D-bags on here makes you look so much better.

      3. mk says:

        Get a life, you uncaring selfish, person.

      4. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Whoa. You have a knack for rustling feathers.

        Who knew? :P

        1. GB says:

          Just the facts, purposely trying to upset others makes you “look” like a D-bag.

      5. AJ (Cedar Springs) says:

        Definitely possible!

  9. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    135″ for the season here.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      You got me beat. With today’s 1.3″ I’m up to…134.9″.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Allegan is the Kalkaska of SW Michigan…

      I’m at 132 inches though, so I’m not far behind. If I can get a good SW flow tomorrow night, I could surpass you!

      1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        We get at least a part of the lake effect with nearly every wind direction. We will probably be even going into the weekend. We might pull back ahead with the weekend snowstorm if it stays south of I-96.

      2. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

        Holland has to be around 135 or so. I haven’t seen an updated number lately.

      3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Looks like a tight competition! :)

  10. Josh From Zeeland says:

    LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW !!!!!
    –JOSHH

    1. Jack says:

      LET IT MELT,,”LET IT MELT “” ……… ( repeat , repeat …….). Stay CUEDDDD,,,,, & Baaahhh Humbug !!! ;-)

      1. Josh From Zeeland says:

        LET IT FREEZE LET IT FREEZE LET IT FREEZE LET IT FREEZE!! BA DA DUM DUM DUM
        –JOSHH

        1. Jack says:

          FREEEZE. CUE::: Bruce Springsteen – Tenth Avenue Freeze-Out.wmv – YouTube
          ► 3:16► 3:16
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BL-HL3ELvFI
          Stay Cued…. ;-)

  11. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Giving my guess out early for the kiddos so that we don’t have to start this conversation on the blog again, there will probably be some schools closed on Thursday especially the ones closer to the lakeshore, there you have it, I’m done giving my predictions on schools for Thursday.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Uh oh. You’re setting yourself up for bashing when you post about school closings, bud.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Yeah people can bash all they want I just have learned to ignore them.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’m canceling work for Friday tomorrow. Sorry John, couldn’t resist.

    3. Josh From Zeeland says:

      WOW how can you predict that so far in advance?! ARE YOU GOD?!!!??!?!??!

  12. Cort S. says:

    Wondering about the inner workings of a computer model? Here is some information on the new RAPv2:

    http://ruc.noaa.gov/pdf/RAPv2-NWSwebinar-18feb2014-FINAL.pdf

    1. Cort S. says:

      Actually that’s not really the “inner” workings. The blood and guts of the models look like this:

      http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/codes/nwprod/sorc/

      1. Jacob G. says:

        Hey Cort, you have any programming background?

        1. Cort S. says:

          Just a little bit of Fortran, Csh, Bash, Perl. But those skills have been dormant since college.

        2. Jacob G. says:

          That is cool, sounds like you have some Linux/Unix experience in there. Have you had any experience decoding level III or level II radar data?

        3. Cort S. says:

          I haven’t dealt with Level II or III coded data, just the beautiful images they produce.

    2. Wswplz says:

      Good old webinars, oh how much I love those…if it’s not already boring enough, let’s do it over the web with someone exciting leading or should I say chairing the meeting. Reminds me of work…yukkk! Nothing beats the release of a enhanced product with seamless real time data I’m sure and of course better speed. = lots of calls to the data center. Lol. I’m kidding I’m sure it works great. !

  13. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    00Z has come back to earth with it’s snowfall predictions. It now shows mostly 2-3″ for the clipper, followed by another 2-4″ later in the week. It has me in the 4-6″ range…a far cry from the 10-12+ it was showing on the 18Z.

  14. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Snow is really coming down now. Sleep well and drive safe when you wake up. :)

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      It’s snowing the hardest its snowed since last Monday’s snowstorm.

  15. James (Belmont) says:

    How deep is the frost in the ground!

  16. RobHan says:

    HEY fellow-citizens,
    just in case this subject hasn’t yet already been brought-up here anywhere, you certainly ought to be interested to check-out this link to the following web.site concerning all the crazy (non-lake-effect) snow & cold we’ve been getting ! …

    http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/chemically-nucleated-snow-what-is-it/

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