How Low Did You Go

February 28th, 2014 at 10:11 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

lows upper peninsula feb. 28 2014  muskegon glerl  Chicago glerl Click on the image to enlarge.  These are low preliminary low temperatures (as of 7 am – some locations may have been colder after 7 am) from Upper Michigan (from the Marquette NWS), including a bone-chilling -41 at Newberry – which was the coldest temperature in the U.S. overnight.  Other lows from the U.P.:  -37 Spincich Lake, -34 Champion and Doe Lake, -32 Wakefield, -28 Marquette and -25 at Houghton.  In the Lower Peninsula, both Pellston and Leota (Clare Co.) dipped to -33.  The -12 in Grand Rapids broke the daily record low temperature by 10 degrees.  The Muskegon Airport reached -7, breaking their daily record by 7 degrees.  The Muskegon GLERL station on the beach at Muskegon got down to at least -4.3.  In the middle picture here, you can see that the channel at Muskegon froze over last night.  The third picture shows sunrise in Chicago from (nearly) 3 miles east of downtown at the water intake (Harrison Crib).  The warmest spot was Ludington, stopping at -1.    Other low temps. last night:  -29 Houghton Lake and Gaylord, -27 Baldwin, -26 Cadillac, -22 Lawrence and Leslie, -21 Big Rapids, -20 Entrican (Montcalm Co.), -19 Hastings and Manton, -18 Mt. Pleasant, -17 Ionia and Alma, -16 Belding, Charlotte, Marshall, Ceresco and Wellston, -14 Fremont, West Olive and the Kalamazoo Nature Center, -13 Kalamazoo Airport, Hudsonville and Clarksville, -12 Grand Rapids, Fennville and Watervliet, -11 Lansing, Jackson, Three Rivers and Mendon, -10 Battle Creek, -9 Holland, Manistee, Allendale, Kent City, Hartford and Lawton, -8 S. Haven and Sparta (ag. station – local lows spots were down to -20), -7 Muskegon and -6 in Sturgis.

The visible satellite loop this AM showed low clouds over the lake moving north and higher clouds pushing in from west to east.  Those clouds will move in by around midday and we’ll see some light snow develop this evening (north of G.R.) and then later tonight across the rest of the area.   The overall cold pattern holds through the first two weeks of March, though temps. moderate a little for the 2nd half of next week.   Weekend snowstorm from Kansas to Southern New England.  It still looks like an inch (two at the most) north of G. R. tonight and 2-4″ Sat. night (higher amounts south of G.R.  Then just cold Sunday to Wednesday.

From the GRR NWS Hydrologist:  “RECENT USGS MEASUREMENTS ON THE GRAND RIVER INDICATE ICE DEPTH OF  AROUND ONE FOOT AT PORTLAND AND IONIA. THE USGS ALSO MEASURED 9  INCHES OF ICE DEPTH ON THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER NEAR EAGLE. WHAT THIS  MEANS IS THAT MAIN STEM RIVERS LIKE THE GRAND WILL NEED TO RISE AT  LEAST 3 FEET TO BEGIN BREAKING UP THE ICE (GENERAL RULE IS ICE  BEGINS BREAKING UP WHEN RIVER RISES REACH 3 TIMES THE THICKNESS OF  THE ICE COVERAGE)”.

132 Responses to “How Low Did You Go”

  1. dereks says:

    Hey Bill,
    I read some where that the emerald ash bore dies if the temperature reaches -20 for an hour or longer. I was wondering if this will kill some other bugs for the spring and summer?

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      THAT would be an awesome side effect of all this cold!

    2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      I’m hoping the ticks won’t be as bad. Mosquitoes might be rough if we get the flooding.

    3. DJ2450 (Central Gratiot) says:

      Just talking to a local farmer here yesterday who said, many of the destructive insects will be lower in number this year due to the cold weather.

      1. Judy (Fennville) says:

        Yay!!!!

      2. suehelen says:

        That’s great news!

      3. GunLakeDeb says:

        Of course, the beneficial insects are going to take a hit, too….

    4. Bill Steffen says:

      The bugs may be hunkered down in in the tree bark where it might not have been that cold…but reducing the population of the nasty dritter (like the Borer) would be a pleasant side effect of the cold.

  2. Todd says:

    Low spot by Burnips -21.5 at 6:00AM

  3. GunLakeDeb says:

    20 below at 7:30 AM – the second time this winter we’ve had it that cold, down in the “bowl” of Gun Lake.

  4. Jenn (Orangeville) says:

    that is about right, my car read -21 when I started her up this morning! BURRR

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Ahhh music to my ears from the NWS this morning:

    “The medium range model suite do however suggest a shift toward a more zonal flow next week, which offers some prospects for some moderating temps /inching closer to seasonal norms/ by the end of the forecast period.”

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I’m so ready for that.

      1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

        To Mark (East Lansing) -

        Well, since you use a good synthetic oil, and if your battery was well charged, I guess it was just plain too cold for the old gal.

        Hey, I had an idea while I was out snowblowing. A hot cup of coffee really helps me to get going on cold mornings. I wonder if it would help to pour a hot cup of coffee into the gas tank on cold mornings to help get my car going. I think I’ll try that. You never know unless you try, right?

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          A friend of mine swears by Royal Purple. He used to use AMSOIL. I just can’t justify the cost, though.

    2. Jen says:

      YES! Let’s hope that proves to be correct! Never thought I’d say even 32 degrees sounds great.

    3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      That means more snow!

      1. Alli says:

        “That means more snow!”

        What do you mean? Is there a 1 to 1 direct correlation between a predicted zonal flow and more snow?

        I think what you meant to say was “That could mean more snow” or maybe “I hope that leads to more snow” but certainly not “That means more snow” because there is no way you could know that. Right?

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Haha. Relax there, Alli. It was tongue in cheek to Travis who is often proclaiming that any jump in temperature is a HUGE warmup.

          This winter, the jet stream has been pushed south of us. Hence, the snow has been hitting the Ohio Valley, while we just get cold. If the jet stream gets flattened out, that will bring somewhat milder temps and the storm track more north. So, yes, there IS a correlation between the two. That is what we call “knowing how weather works”.

    4. suehelen says:

      Accuweather- yeah, I know, Acculess- has us moderating by the end of this coming week starting on Thursday. I am so ready. The minute the temps hit 40, I’m opening my windows!

      1. We expect to see a picture of your open windows lol

        1. suehelen says:

          You got it, Mark!

    5. mr. negative says:

      Not this year…

  6. Wswplz says:

    -20 here in cedar at 1:30am so I’m sure that dropped 2 to 5 degrees through the early morning hours. As for our snow maker for late tonight early sat morning should be a tame event with light accums from 1-96 and north as this system looks to be produce only a few inches favoring areas to our north mainly synoptic snow.()http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities

    Then we have our Saturday system which looks to stay on track and will impact areas 1-96 and south with the best chances to the south closer to 1-94, although as I looked at the NAM it has better comments shifted slightly north for snow but less accums. So most likely I would think the nam might slide back to the south with a general 1-4″ with 2-4 for our southern areas and 1-3 for areas near 1-96 and slightly north. It’s worth saying that some could see more snow, depending on where the FGEN sets up.http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities

    1. Wswplz says:

      * better components
      * sorry many more errors as I typed fast.

      1. DJ2450 (Central Gratiot) says:

        Wswplz, thanks for going out and checking for the northern lights lastnight.

        1. Wswplz says:

          No problem I wish there was more good news to report except that which was already know, as it was really really really cold. Lol

  7. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    12Z GFS gives a general 2-4″ at most for the Sat. storm, while the NAM would suggest more in the 3-6″ range. As for Monday, looks like that won’t come too close to most of us. Perhaps northern IN.

  8. on the Grand says:

    I love reading the weather reports from you guys. I especially like the ones that push the snow away from me. Right now I will endure the cold, but I am done with the snow blower. We have fallen out of love and I am moving on with the lawn mover.

  9. Jim says:

    The old house was making noise last night. Got down to -13 in the Richmond Park area. 13 degrees now at Noon, very nice warmup.

  10. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

    To Mark (East Lansing) – I can’t reply directly to your last post above.

    I just read some lab reports (American Petroleum Institute) on synthetic oils and Amsoil does appear to be the best performer. But Mobile 1 is close enough and for the price differential (and for *my* needs), I am going to stick with Mobile 1.

    But if I was into serious racing or other high performance/stress situations, I might go with Amsoil.

    1. Wswplz says:

      I’m not sure what challenge or systems Mark ( east Lansing ) might be having with his vehicle as you both discuss oil, as I would assume maybe an issue of a vehicle not turning over. ( I did not look at older threads ). I will jump in and give my two cents from being around the automotive world in the near past for the better part of ten years. What I’ve found through observed experience and conversation is that there is not a huge difference between oil brands when it comes to viscosity breakdown in oil which obviously can lead to catastrophic fallers within a combustion engine. I have not researched the subject as you have Dikehopper but I have spoken with major leading brands on the subject off the record and simplifying a larger conversation in two a simple conclusion. With that said it has to do much more with marketing and sales then the actual benefits one will receive from going with different brands. This also carried over somewhat to synthetic vs non, however that is also a different argument in its own right. Unless racing however, there is not a huge difference, although synthetic can be more helpful in extreme situations.. Anyways my 2 cents in short. :)

      1. Wswplz says:

        * symptoms * failures

        I should also mention when I did have a 2003 BMW M5 I run a synthetic as I felt the expense was worth the investment given the implied benefits .

        In my current vehicle 05 gmc Denali and my financial situation quite bluntly, do not run synthetic oil as the cost out ways the proven extra benefit. I know many will disagree, but I’m always interested to learn and have used both.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          A 5-quart jug of Mobil 1 at Walmart is only $5 or more than conventional oil.

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          *or so

        3. Wswplz says:

          I do happen to likes Mobil 1…..lol. Synthetic definitely has some proven benefits, where brand is more preference I think. Also as I mentioned I was speaking more to viscosity breakdown and frequency, how that is marketed to in courage people out of fear of engine failure due to oil breaking down when in fact that is very difficult. Okay I’m done, back to old man winter!

      2. Wswplz says:

        I should add one last note as to my conversations and moreover clarify my basic findings as I wasn’t very clear. Where as my statement to brands of oil as long as you are talking about major brands and similar oils in comparison ( synthetic vs non ie ) remains more or less the same. But the vescocity breakdown being more of the focal point and even more so how that effects the need or frequency of changing ones oil. Some company’s would like you to believe that you need to change your oil every 3,000 miles which I might add won’t hurt but rather argue its not necessary. Especially when looking at oil breakdown at a molecular level. I should also mention that time is also important not just mileage and driving style for that matter, just to mention a few. Many may have noticed that the mileage of many manufactures has gone up, between oil changes. Some will still change there oil every 3k as it has become habit but I have been told by some oil guys if you will it is not nec.

      3. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

        Wswplz – I think I understand what you wrote and I agree with you.

        From what I can tell, lab performance tests don’t show significant differences between brands.

        But under some climate conditions and driving habits, there can be significant differences between petroleum based oils and synthetic oils.

        I dunno, I may have never advised anyone to use synthetics. Too many variables to consider. My choice, synthetics, was a result of my own homework and my own wants.

        As an aside, I first became interested in the subject of synthetic engine oils in the early 1980′s, as I recall. The US Army asked an oil company (Mobile Oil?) to develop an oil that would not turn into “mud” in Arctic climates. Synthetic oil was the solution.

        1. Wswplz says:

          Ya, I tried to clarify what I was saying as I didn’t do a good job of what my emphasis was on, to much multitasking lol…I’m a little ADD. So I agree with you on a large part. As I mentioned in my second post it was more to frequency and that of oil breakdown which ultimately can lead to engine problems. Not as much to synthetic vs non…although I’m sure one could. I however do believe in Syththetic, but not every 3 k….

        2. Andy says:

          Just thought I would add my 2 cents. I was reading some message boards from some mechanics that live in Northern Wisconsin and Northern Minnesota where they have extremely low temperatures on a yearly basis. They were saying that a lot of people up there have engine block heaters, but they don’t typically plug them in until it gets to -20 or lower. Just wondering about some thoughts on that.

        3. Wswplz says:

          Thanks for your insight Dikehopper!!

        4. Wswplz says:

          As to Andy, I’m not an expert on extreme weather and when one should have a block heater. I do a know different weight oil should be used. A lot of my experience comes via the way of Ca so not my wheel house. Although I did work in Lake Tahoe but on the slopes as a young adult. ( not that cold ) lol

        5. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I had a 1985 3/4 ton Chevy with a 6.2 diesel that had a block heater. Definitely helped in the winter. I’m not sure how necessary they are for gasoline engines – for this area at least.

        6. Wswplz says:

          In my limited discussion with extreme cold and engines I have a friend who did use a block heater in Wisconsin and he swears by it as he said it helped at point of highest friction during engine start,especially with older vehicles…nice truck btw Mark! They don’t make Em like they used too..

        7. Andy says:

          Thanks for the responses guys. That’s what I was thinking about the block heaters. I don’t know of anyone who has them around here (Northern Kent County). I always they may be more necessary for Northern Minnesota or Alaska, where -20 to -40 degree temps can occur quite often.

        8. Andy says:

          *thought

        9. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

          Some final thoughts on engine oil.

          Last I checked, some years ago, synthetic oil gives approximately 5% better gas mileage than regular oil. That helps offset the extra cost. Muchly. (It also gives approximately 5% more horsepower for those like me with “lead feet”. It’s because synthetics are “slipperier”.)

          As a very, very general rule of thumb: If I was leasing a vehicle, I would not use synthetics. It would be a waste of money. If I was going to keep a relatively new vehicle for only, say, three or five or seven years, I would not use synthetics. Waste of money.

          But If you want to get as many miles or years as possible out of a vehicle, you should give synthetic oils some very serious thought. And not just engine oil, but all fluids. Your vehicle’s drive train will last longer.

          If you have an auto mechanic that recommends oil changes every 3,000 miles, replace him. He is conning you, you can’t trust him. It is just ridiculous, nonsense, plain and simple. (Well, unless you have *very* rare driving conditions. And no, you can’t tell your engines oil’s condition by its color.) Follow your owner’s manual. The manufacturer of your vehicle does *not* want their vehicles to become known for high repairs and short lives. Their recommendations play it safe for their own reputations.

          I’ve never had an engine block heater. But if I did, I guess I would be tempted to use it when the temp got maybe into the single digits. As I understand it, an engine block heater helps warm up your whole engine before you start it. And cold starts are very rough on engines. And, hey, you would get heat through the heat vents or windshield defroster faster! That’s my best guess, anyway.

          I might bow out of this conversation now. Mark and Wswplz seem to be pretty knowledgeable and can see this conversation through without my input.

        10. Wswplz says:

          No I think we were the only few crazy ones paying any mind to oil talk or I should just speak for me as I’m a little crazy..lol. With that said I think you hit the nail on the head in all phases IMHO with your summary there Dikehopper including the different ways of owning / leasing and or keeping till it dies. Well said, it’s as if you have had real life personal experience and learned a thing or two along the way. With this last thought I digress, GREAT advice sir that of which could be bottled, sold, and read by many in a magazine! :)

        11. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I drive my vehicles into the ground. I put 270K on a 97 Bonneville. That 3800 was still running great when I got rid it. The rest of the car was falling apart, but that motor was durable and dependable. I think the only thing I ever replaced was the water pump. Plugs, belts, hoses of course and maybe an O2 sensor.

  11. suehelen says:

    The husband went grocery shopping at 5 a.m. this morning. His truck said -25 on his way from Edmore to Greenville.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I love going “overnight/early morning” shopping. You get the whole store to yourself… :)

      1. suehelen says:

        He goes every Friday morning at 5. It’s his favorite time to shop.

    2. we were a balmy -10.7 so people might consider Breckentucky for their winter home to get away from the cold.

  12. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Bill, dropped to -16 at my house this morning at 7am near Richland, coldest temp this winter by 3 degrees (was -13 two other times this winter). Temp rose rather quickly to near zero within an hour or so after the sun came up. Shows how much stronger the sun is this time of year than January, for example.

  13. dereks says:

    I was just watching the weather channel and they said parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas could have severe weather with freezing rain on Sunday.

  14. Jack says:

    The Title of This Thread made me Think of This : http://home.comcast.net/~wardomatic2/LimboParty.jpg. Lol…Happy FRYday, Stay CUED…… ;-)

  15. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    I bottomed out at -19.7 on the northeast side of Rockford, just a few degrees shy of my record low of -22.5 from earlier this incredible winter.

  16. Craig (Holland North Sider) says:

    How sad is it that when I went out for lunch 14 degrees felt relatively warm?! -8 felt cold enough here in Holland. Thank you Lake Michigan for your warmth!

    1. Wswplz says:

      Lol I didn’t see your post Jack…this is what I was worried about happening last week after I looked at there rainfall forecast for the week. :(

  17. Wswplz says:

    Wswplz says:
    February 24, 2014 at 2:50 am
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

    You weren’t kidding Bill when you said Ca is going to see some heavy rain / snow if this map verifies, wow!

    Reply

    This is what I hoped Ca would avoid however it with there current year going the way it has they were on a collision course for flooding and mud slides. I just got off the phone with my Mom in northern Ca also some friends in southern Ca and unfortunately they are experiencing just that, really bad in some locations. My prayers go out to those who have lost homes as my parents have been fortunate so far and have just experienced some flooding. Sorry to go outside our weather..

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Here’s some rainfall amounts from California: http://kamala.cod.edu/ca/latest.srus46.KLOX.html inc. 6.33″ at Opids Camp, 2.61″ Van Nuys, 2.28″ Los Angeles, 1.85″ Santa Barbara. It won’t break the drought, but that’s a sizable dent.

  18. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    While its up to 20° here its only 15° at the airport. I brought the following up from the previous blog as it has what I think is some useful information.

    Last night low here in GR of -12° is the coldest this late in the season since a low of -13 on March 8th 1943 so there only has been one time since records have been kept for Grand Rapids that it has been colder then last night this late into the season!
    Also here in GR we now have had snow on the ground since December 8th of 2013 so as of today we now have had snow cover of one inch or more for 82 days now (in our case this year its been at lest 3”) and as it looks like there will still be at least one inch or more on the ground for the next 10 days we will more up more on the list
    http://www.wzzm13.com/money/story.aspx?storyid=117566
    Note use the chart not the start days on the list. BTW not sure where 2010 ended up on the list but the snow was all gone by march 8th and we ended up the month of March with a high of 78° and the start of April in the low 80’s the first two days!
    SlimJim

  19. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Here’s just another reason not to put any stock into an Acculess forecast: they can’t even get the current conditions right! All Wednesday night it said flurries for my area as I kept refreshing the “current conditions”, I received 4.5″. Today it says it’s been 15° and sunny for the past 2 hours, we haven’t seen the sun in the past 2 hours. Okay rant over lol

  20. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I’m thinking that the water, even very deep in Lake Michigan, is super cold becuase the strong winds have stirred that cold water and ice several times over the past few months. The water isn’t just cold at the surface… It is cold far beneath too.

    1. Michael g (se GR) says:

      My understanding is that the water on the bottom in the deeper parts if the lake stays at 39* year round.

    2. Jim ( Spring Lake) says:

      The water at the bottom of the lakes range from the upper30s to low 50s. Depends on the depth.

      1. Jim ( Spring Lake) says:

        Nathan. I was wrong. Just looked at graphs of Lake Superior.Very close to what Michael said. Upper 30s to 40 and thats right now with a frozen surface. These are only our best guesses as there is no physical measuring being done.

        1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

          Yup, I think that with more density it can’t get as cold… I really don’t remember but I learned it in chemistry class a while ago. Either way though, it is definitely colder beneath the surface than usual. The winds that stirred up the cold water definitely helped to contribute in some way.

  21. Chip Byrd (North Holland) says:

    Cool

    SHORT TERM
    (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 329 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

    THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF LIGHT SNOW EVENTS… HIGHLY
    INFLUENCED BY MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE FGEN FORCING IS
    BEING DRIVEN BY AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
    ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON
    BAY VORTEX. STRONGER/SMALLER JETLETS WITHIN THIS BELT OF STRONGER
    WINDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND FGEN
    FORCING.

    THE FIRST EVENT IS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE BAND OF
    LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY BREAKING OUT ACROSS SE MN AND CENTRAL
    WI EXPANDS/SPREADS E/NE INTO NRN LWR MI. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO
    BEING AIDED BY DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
    INVERTED SFC TROUGH.

    AS THIS INCOMING SNOW IMPACTS AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF GRR TONIGHT…
    SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO COME INTO TO PLAY AND WE
    MAY LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED 4-5 INCH AMOUNTS AROUND LUDINGTON AND
    PENTWATER. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY BUT THIS
    WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS EVENING.

    THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
    BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MANY AREAS
    CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S BY DAYBREAK.

    SNOW DIMINISHES SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH
    AND EAST OF GRR AND AS THE FIRST BOUT OF FGEN FORCING WEAKENS IN
    FAVOR OF NEW DEVELOPMENT OVER IOWA. IT IS THIS PRECIP WHICH SPREADS
    EAST INTO SRN LWR MI SATURDAY NIGHT.

    THE SATURDAY NIGHT EVENT IS TRICKY BECAUSE BANDED PRECIP IS LIKELY
    IN THE FGEN REGIME RATHER THAN BEING EVENLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS A
    BROAD AREA AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE QPF PROGS MAY SUGGEST. THE NAM
    MEANWHILE TYPICALLY OVERDOES QPF IN THESE STRONG FGEN SITUATIONS…
    SO SHIED AWAY FROM ITS HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. BELIEVE A BROAD RANGE OF
    1-4 IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ALTHOUGH WHERE THE 3-4 AMOUNTS SET
    UP IS LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM.

    TURNING QUIET BUT COLD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK NORTHERLY
    LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SFC RIDGING. THE BIG SYSTEM OVER THE TN VALLEY
    REGION STAYS SOUTH OF MI FOR THE MOST PART.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Negative. Per the NWS: THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A MILDER TREND TAKE
      PLACE FOR THE AREA. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THU AND
      FRI. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON WED WILL KEEP TEMP ADVECTION
      RATHER NEUTRAL. WE WILL SEE THE HIGH SLIP EAST ON THU…AND ALLOW
      FOR BETTER SW FLOW TO KICK IN. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS TEMP ADV
      COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. ANY SNOW LOOKS TO BE A
      QUICK BURST. TEMPS AT H850 THEN GO ABOVE FREEZING BY FRI. THIS
      SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM AT LEAST INTO THE 30S…IF NOT INTO THE
      40S.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        This will once again be short lived and then right back to well below average temps the following week! Who knew?

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Baby steps, brother.

  22. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Well below average temps at least thru mid March!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

  23. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Sigh…as usual, the NWS gives the Muskegon area some of the lowest amounts. If we do indeed get SW flow lake enhancement, Muskegon would also get heavier snow. They do that often with SW flow forecasting. I have not seen many SW flow events that give Ludington a ton more than our area. That is my forecast: if SW flow sets up, Muskegon will get more than 1 to 2 inches.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No doubt about it! Muskegon is in line for 3 or 4 inches both tonight and Sat night! Get ready to Rock n Roll! You will be in SNOW Heaven!

    2. DJ2450 (Central Gratiot) says:

      Looking at the radar right now I’d say the northern counties have the best chance of accumilating snow tonight. Looks to me as though the radar returns from Iowa and Nebraska look good for your area.

      http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

      1. Me :-) says:

        Looks to me the snow will miss Ionia County. If anything it will be far after midnight. I like that. Maybe we won’t get any snow for a while. 21 more days till Spring :-)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Double that it will be about right! Mark it down!

      2. Wswplz says:

        I think those areas they have are pretty close as to where the snow will be focused, however like Rocky I,think they are a little lite. And your two cents Cort, as I know you usually don’t speak to much towards exact accums but more to the weather patterns that create the lovely white and fluffy. Lol

        1. Cort S. says:

          It sounded like Matt was saying the NWS put him in an island of low snowfall tonight, when really, all I see is a NW-SE gradient.

          Here are my thoughts… I don’t think lake enhancement will be the traditionally understood “lake-effect snow occurring underneath mid-level system snow.” You see the roughly isothermal temperature profile from the surface to 700 mb?
          http://i.imgur.com/cJmTkeH.gif
          That’s very stable… you probably won’t get a very thick lake-induced convective layer, and it doesn’t look like that layer will reach the DGZ to produce heavy snow. Instead, your lake enhancement will come from boundary layer effects (similar to the “best clipper ever”). Most of the snow will be generated by the mid-level system. If the lake-convective layer forces the mid-level air stream above it to rise as though it were going over an invisible mountain, then that’s how your snow will be enhanced. I think the HRRR is doing a decent job of depicting this type of enhancement (click here). So what is most important is not lake fetch or SW-flow snow belts, it’s where the moisture and lift in the mid-level system will be focused for the longest amount of time. Right now a NW-SE gradient makes sense, but the expected amounts along the lakeshore are probably too low.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Good stuff Cort. Keep the facts rolling about the COLD and SNOW that is on the way. There is some nice banding showing up a the HRRR! If this is even remotely similar to the “BEST CLIPPER EVER” WE WILL BE IN GOOD SHAPE BY MORNING! Bring it!

        3. Wswplz says:

          First off all I have to say thanks Cort, sorry if that sounds cliche, but you really have a knack for explaining things that in a way that few poses. I’ve had many professors ,teachers alike that either don’t know how to connect to connect to there audience or preach from a tower with credentials on hand at a moments notice who use language only a English lit prof could understand. So thanks,,

        4. Cort S. says:

          Thanks man. Now let’s see if my reasoning holds up tonight against the real atmosphere.

        5. Wswplz says:

          The HRRR looks very similar to what the WPC snow prediction maps are showing at least one could deduce that. So basically we are going to see a synoptic snow mostly from this clipper, although most of the accums will be north / west of us and if we get lucky it will have a shot of lake nitrous!!

  24. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Lets go for the GOLD! Lets break the SNOWFALL record!! Icing on the cake baby! The trails are calling my name! Get outside and enjoy the BEST WINTER EVER!

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Would love to be outside with my 4 year old daughter but it has overall been WAY to cold to safely spend time outside with her. Talk about cabin fever.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Have you thought about wearing some good quality outdoor gear and a face mask! It has been great outside this week! It will be a near perfect weekend for outdoor winter sports!

        1. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

          It is way to cold for kids to be outside!!! My grandkids all have winter gear & it is just plain too cold out for them.

      2. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

        “Would love to be outside with my 4 year old daughter…”

        Man, I wish you could, too. Most honestly.

        Maybe if you wrap her up real warm?

      3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Mine are six and nine. We haven’t been outside as much as we’ve wanted either. The kids’ outdoor gear isn’t designed for this type of cold. Of course when was their age, I had a third generation, hand me down snowmobile suit. I wore that for multiple winters. Huge when I got it, zipper-bursting tight when I got the next one. Kept me warm for the most part.

  25. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    GR will end up with about 10 to 12 inches of new SNOW for this current week! Imagine that! Not bad for the dry week that many on here were talking about! Nice try folks! Face the facts – we are still entrenched in a COLD and SNOWY pattern! I love it!

    1. Me :-) says:

      I have a feeling it is almost done. The best winter ever is about to reach it’s best part: the end. :-)

      1. Jeff (Richland) says:

        Agreed!

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        +1

    2. Jeff (Richland) says:

      When winter ends, what will you then have to talk be excited about?

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I will just switch to golf and than I will leave the warm weather talk to all of the delusional warm weather nuts around here!

        1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

          No you won’t. Lol. :)

  26. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The 8-14 day outlook features a cool but dry forecast, little snow over the next couple weeks.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      I can handle cool. Cool will still put us above freezing for highs.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Good another dry week! Get ready for about a foot of SNOW next!

    3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I hate to break it to you John, but average precip does not equal a dry week! Get ready for more SNOW, SNOW and SNOW!

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        I’m sorry Rocky I just have enough snow on the ground, not that I’m turning against you I just don’t need anymore snow on the ground.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          I understand, however I could use a couple more snowstorms and about 30 more inches of SNOW yet this season! Bring it!

  27. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Such a nice picture of Chicago. When I left yesterday the ice had come back along the shoreline on the north side.

    1. paul m says:

      Hate to say it Rocky by middle third wee!k of March it going to start to warm up and melt our snow
      All gone.system tonight looks to be staying north of West Michigan.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Um when and where have I heard that before? People on this blog have been saying winter has been winding down for about three weeks now! How has that worked out! We are currently in the grips of the Siberian Express and SNOW is on the way! We have a TON of COLD and SNOW yet this year! get ready!

        1. paul m says:

          No I been saying Third week in March all the snow will melt away in West Michigan.
          After we get thru the next Thrusday patterns are starting to shift and change.
          bye bye snow hello Spring.

      2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Oh by the way thanks for the material! I have been proving people wrong all winter, so you might as well get in on the fun :)

  28. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Weather Underground shows towns for the lowest temps in the state.

    -33 °F
    Pellston

    -30 °F
    Grayling

    -27 °F
    Gaylord

    -27 °F
    Newberry

    -27 °F
    Gwinn

    1. Wswplz says:

      I think there was a -41 somewhere to the north and farrr east, can’t recall the name of the city. Minden?? I will look.

      1. Wswplz says:

        Newberry was -41.

  29. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Great news for the warm weather nuts! By the end of next week it may actually warm up to around 32 degrees! Now for the bad news – the storm track will be lined up right at us with a ton of SNOW! I love it!

    1. paul m says:

      Rain Rain Rain who new!

      1. Wswplz says:

        Well it depends as we transitioned into the last brief warm up we did have a good snow as the weather pattern was shifting , so let’s hope we tap into the moisture from the gulf and not rain, at least until we are done with our winter.

  30. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Ice storm next Thursday/Friday? Those temps will be close to the freezing mark.

  31. dereks says:

    I was watching the NBC nightly news and tonight and they showed noaa’s winter projections from this fall and it showed above average winter from Texas to here in Michigan. Then they showed the actual map of this winter that obviously showed they were way off. Its nice to see them show the truth and not stick to the global warming bias.

    1. Brad says:

      Such a stupid post.

      1. dereks says:

        welcome back Brad.

      2. yooper4021 says:

        Thanks for sharing.

      3. Dan (Byron Center) says:

        Intelligent?

      1. dereks says:

        Thanks for the facts Bill.

    2. suehelen says:

      It is nice to see facts once in awhile. You don’t see them very often in the mainstream media.

  32. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Excellent post Dereks.
    Don’t forget how they keep failing on the hurricane predictions also.

Leave a Reply