Below Zero Again Monday AM

March 2nd, 2014 at 5:51 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

low temps. 12 7   Update:  Morning run of the GFS out 16 days looks like mid-January rather than early March.  Nearly 1500 light cancellations in the US as weather disrupts travel across much of the country.  At 1 pm, a few flurries…temperatures:  17 Kalamazoo, 15 Grand Rapids, 13 Rockford, 9 Big Rapids, 0 Mackinac Is., -7 Houghton (with a wind chill of -30).  Winds are light and variable in West Michigan.  Thundersnow in Chicago last night.   Thundersleet and thundersnow today from N. Texas to Missouri.  Look at this picture of cloud-ground lightning with snow and sleet on the groundSunset on Mars (note the sun is smaller, not quite as bright with a bluish tint to the sky).  Billings, MT, dropped to 21 below zero F this morning, setting an all-time March record low.  Kansas City likely to shatter coldest March high temp of 11 degrees. Current high is 5.

Click on the map to enlarge.  This map shows high temperatures from Saturday.  Look at the very cold air from Eastern Washington State (high 15 at Spokane) across Montana (-12 Lewistown, -11 Great Falls), North Dakota (-15 Devils Lake, -12 Jamestown) into Minnesota (-11 International Falls).  Highs were only 3 at Houghton MI, 1 at Mason City IA, 2 at Chadron, NE and you can see some incredible contrast (26 Colorado Spring to 70 at Trinidad CO and 85 at Lubbock TX to 27 at Guymon OK.   We may see a little sunshine later today (esp. north of G.R.) and it’s likely that most areas will be below zero once again Monday morning.  We’ll get another round of light snow early Tuesday (1-2″) and maybe a mix late this week.  Here’s current conditions and regional radar.   Grand Rapids added 2.4″ of snow on Saturday and the season snowfall is now 110.2″.  Muskegon reported 2.6″ of new snow Saturday and 126.2″ for the season.   Lansing added 3.4″ on Saturday for a season total of 61.4″.  Holland’s (unofficial) season snowfall is now at 146.3″.  The modern record for Holland is 159.9″.  The Grand Rapids record season snowfall is 132″ at the airport and 144″ downtown in 1951-52.   For Meteorological Winter (the 3 months of Dec., Jan., Feb.), Grand Rapids had 105.6″ of snow and that is a 3-month winter record.  Grand Rapids was 6.2° colder than average for the season and we had only 21% of possible sunshine.  We had 66 days when the temperature stayed below freezing compared to an average of 41 days and we had a whopping 61 days with measurable snowfall.  Also, a strong 6.4 magnitude e-quake hit just off the west coast of Nicaragua and a 6.6 earthquake in the Ryukyu Islands.  Tropical Storm Faxai churns SE of Guam.

248 Responses to “Below Zero Again Monday AM”

  1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    It is in the single digits in northern Michigan today!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It is beautiful thing! Single digits in March! Keep it coming!

      1. S2 says:

        The LP bills aren’t so beautiful :o (

  2. Wswplz says:

    This 24 hour snowfall map for us is interesting….
    http://go.usa.gov/KcJH

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Tehe. I resisted the urge to respond to this map a couple of hours ago. I shook my head though. :)

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Yes I was hoping for more, but at this point I will 2 or 3 inches at a time util we hit 133 inches baby!

  3. jerry hoag says:

    LET’S GO GRAND RAPIDS FOR THAT NUMBER 1 SPOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LETS KEEP RACKING AND TRACKING THAT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PILE IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      That is the spirt! Keep it up!

      1. jerry hoag says:

        Rocky, YOU GOT IT MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YEAH, WE ARE GOING TO HIT THAT NUMBER 1 SPOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LET’S SEE A FINAL TOTAL FOR THE WINTER SEASON OF 150.00 INCHES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  4. Wswplz says:

    Rocky you are going to want to read this, and people who don’t like snow, please don’t .

    FCST. WE ARE HOWEVER MONITORING THE POTENTIAL THAT THE WEEK MAY
    BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE CURRENT FCST INDICATES.

    THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS PRESENT
    RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. THERE ARE
    TWO DIFFERENT IDEAS AMONGST THE MODELS. THE IDEA WE ARE FOLLOWING
    RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE UPPER JET REMAINS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OF
    THE CWFA. THIS WOULD KEEP STRONGER SHORT WAVES NORTH OF THE
    AREA..AND THE AREA DRIER AND A LITTLE MILDER. THIS HAS BEEN SHOWN
    CONSISTENTLY BY THE EURO AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET.

    THE MORE UNSETTLED IDEA WOULD BRING THE UPPER JET FURTHER
    SOUTH…AND BRING SHORT WAVES THROUGH AROUND EVERY DAY OR SO WITH A
    THREAT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.

    1. Wswplz says:

      Looks like we just might have a dry week again. Lol

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Oh good another 10 to 12 inches of SNOW! Bring it!

      2. SW Kent says:

        Wswplz…….just curious. You post on here 24 hours a day sometimes. Do you have a job or do you just love the weather that much?

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I don’t really understand why they think the jet stream would be north, when all winter it has been pushing south of here, with no intention of going north.

      My call is that this week will be more active than is currently being predicted. The biggest thing going against my call is that we are moving closer to spring. The biggest thing for this call is that the persistent pattern has had the jet stream south of us.

      Sometimes I wonder if fixxxy and Tomkap help to run the GRR NWS. Oh, and Mark might try to help once in a while. :P

      1. Wswplz says:

        Yes, it looks like you were might be correct Matt, but if you read the rest of the forecast, they go on to explain your question or answer it…. :)

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          :) Are you referring to them discussing what the EURO model shows? Yeah, I guess that is true. The GFS only started showing a more active pattern for the week starting today. Plus, the latest NAM hasn’t really showed much for the upcoming week either.

          The pattern has been persistent though, so right now it is sort of the Euro vs. the pattern on whether we get an active week.

        2. Wswplz says:

          Yes, we aren’t the only ones who don’t trust the models…lol. We shall see mid week, as for me I’m going with a blend of the models and there thinking…no Ive just been wanting so say that for a while….

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Stay classy, teach.

        1. Wswplz says:

          Haven’t seen the latest release yet…you?

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          latest release?

        3. Wswplz says:

          Sorry Matt, I thought that might be confusing….I was actually thinking about the movie Anchor Man, from Marks comment…..my bad. So anyways you think the jet is going to dip down a bit further? As I hope you are correct. From everything I’ve seen so far, it seems this month is going to finish below normal for our temps unless we get a big spike, so I say let the snow demons dance! Lol

      3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        + one trillion!

      4. Cort S. says:

        FYI… The jet stream will be split into two during that time frame. The southern stream will be over the Gulf Coast… and the northern stream will be (for 21Z Thu):

        Either that greenish-yellow blob in southern Sask./Manitoba/Ont. (Euro model)…
        http://i.imgur.com/yvFLh0T.jpg

        Or that greenish-yellow blob in Minn./Wisconsin (GFS model)…
        http://i.imgur.com/poivol8.jpg

        Your disposition to disagree with the NWS about virtually everything gets a little old sometimes.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Sometimes?

        2. 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin says:

          Cort-

          You’re too good for the wasteland that this blog has become. While many, myself included, still appreciate your quality posts they are falling more and more on deaf ears (or eyes in this case) as it’s clear this place has become a playground for a few people and their multiple personas.

          Thanks for offering a sane, objective viewpoint every now and then. I enjoy reading your informative posts when I do check in; which unfortunately is less and less nowadays.

        3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Understood, Cort.

          I appreciate your courteous way of responding to things. I will work on it. I understand there are two different jets. The northern and the southern jet. I was referring to the northern jet.

          Stone Cold, sorry you feel that way. I assure you that I have my one and only persona on here. I don’t intend on making this a wasteland, as you call it. I enjoy talking and laughing with people on here.

        4. Cort S. says:

          For what it’s worth, I don’t think you’re part of the wasteland, Matt. Maybe Stone Cold was referring to the more repetitious vocal minority among us… I think we know who. Btw, thanks Mr. Stone Cold, I’m glad you enjoy.

        5. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Thanks, Cort. I thought he might of been referring to those few individuals, but I wasn’t sure.

          Anyways, back to the weather! :) Both of this evening’s GFS and NAM runs are showing several inches now Monday through Wednesday. The GFS has the signs of a SW flow event, which the NWS DID mention in this morning’s discussion. :P

        6. Wswplz says:

          Stone Cold although your comment isn’t false at face value, but it maybe in scope, as I too enjoy Cort and others who post on this bog, but let’s not imply that some are better than others, plus I don’t won’t Cort to be scared off. Lol. Not trying to sound obtuse as it has nothing to do with you, but more how broad and all inclusive your statement is,with that of one exception.

  5. on the Grand says:

    A bald eagle has been just sitting on the frozen river for the last 10 minutes in front of the house.

    1. Wswplz says:

      That’s cool, is that rare to see one, or more to the fact that he thinks he is Jesus.

  6. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Here are the official snowfall amounts for Grand Rapids for the past week:

    Sunday – 0.00″
    Monday – 0.00″
    Tuesday – trace
    Wednesday – 0.04″
    Thursday – 0.08″
    Friday – 0.09″
    Saturday – 0.00″

    Old Man Winter is going to have to pick up the pace to break the all time record.

    1. Wswplz says:

      You mean next week?

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      What in the world are you talking about? On Wednesday night alone GR picked up 3.9 inched of SNOW!! They picked up about 10 inches total! Mark it down!

      1. John (Grand Rapids) says:

        He must mean precipitation amounts not snowfall amounts?

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Well that could be what he meant, however that is not what he said! His post sounds more like Flint Travis!

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Read the NWS climate summaries for the past week. I copied them verbatim. Just the facts and I am merely the messenger.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        You don’t know what you are talking about! Are you related to Travis?

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Haha. It doesn’t take into account snowfall ratios. With 20:1 ratios, it would be higher, but still not equal to almost 4 inches.

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          It doesn’t take into account of many things. Measurements, that’s all.

  7. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Oops, my mistake. I was looking at the precipitation totals. The snowfall totals were Sunday 0.00″, Monday 0.00″, Tuesday 0.3″, Wednesday 0.7″, Thursday 1.9″, Friday 2.0″, and Saturday 0.00″.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You are still WRONG! You listed Saturday/yesterday with ZERO SNOW and GR picked up about 3 inches! Nice try!

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        NWS’ data, not mine.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Maybe you are looking at the wrong week, month, year, decade century, etc! Other than that thanks for sharing!

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Look for yourself. Maybe you’re wrong? Heaven forbid…

        3. Cort S. says:

          I think you were looking at the date in the header (products sent at 12:XX A.M.), not the date the product was reporting on. So shift those numbers you listed back one day, and you’ll be all set. :)

        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Ah, thanks Cort.

          So 6.9″ officially for the week. Not to shabby.

  8. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    The storm/snow track is still headed right for West MI! Bring it!

    http://wxcaster4.com/cfs/NORTH-AMERICA_CFS-NODE1_SFC_45DAY-ACCUM-PRECIP_180HR.gif

  9. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I think I will head out with the sled for a few hours! What a fantastic winter day! Latter!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Be sure to wear a helmet. The last thing you need is a head injury.

      1. SW Kent says:

        Good one Mark.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I care about my fellow bloggers.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          LOL…Oh, Mark… :P

          Have fun, Rocky! It looks like a gorgeous evening.

      2. DJ2450 (Central Gratiot) says:

        Wouldn’t want anything to happen to Rocky. Who would let us know we are in a COLD and SNOWY pattern?

        1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          Who Knew!
          SlimJim

  10. Wswplz says:

    The thing I’m concern about with my limited knowledge is if we do see the southern jet stream start taking aim at Michigan, which is at least 7 – 10 days from now and possibly even later in the month. What is the p-type going to be once we do see that type of pattern and will we have that commingling with the northern flow to create those monster storms we love so much. I would guess that the later we get into ” spring ” the less we get that cooler air dipping down out of Canada, and creating a more classic spring pattern with rain not snow.

    1. Wswplz says:

      * I guess it would me more correct saying ” southerly component ” from the indirect circulation helping to enhance the low level jet as they work together with the northern component and enhance the low level wind fields and upper level divergence. Then we get big monster snows!! So is this harder to achieve the further we go into spring?

      1. Cort S. says:

        ^^^ Someone has read up on their ageostrophic theory.

        No, the jet streaks and the entire stream itself will continue to meander, propagate, amplify, split, recombine, etc. over the region, ad infinitum. They’ll continue to help spin up an occasional monster storm throughout the spring, but I think the limiting factor as we move deeper into the season is the temperature of the air which the precipitation falls through. That will dictate if it’s a dumping of rain or snow.

        1. Wswplz says:

          Hahaha…I did a couple of weeks ago…. Ah makes sense, still need to keep reading apparently!!

  11. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

    Here’s something for those of you who are as fed up as I am with this winter:

    “Summertime Summertime (The Jamies) – KerHarmony & Julie Gaulke” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1zEkYPNM9k

    Mungo Jerry – In The Summertime http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvUQcnfwUUM

    You have to be as old as Bill and I are to remember these songs.

    I would post The Lovin’ Spoonful’s “Daydream”, too, but there’s a two link limit here.

    No, wait, I’m gonna post a music video for those who are really enjoying this winter. It is a great music video.

    Below.

    1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

      Snow. Cold. Blizzards. Seduction. Enjoy.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJnhmhoA0fE

      Now, I will never be able to prove this, but I think that the womenfolk here will figure out the video before the menfolk do. It’s a chick thing. They have senses that we menfolk don’t. (And thank God for chicks.)

  12. Wswplz says:

    March 2, 2014 at 3:27 pm
    So this looks impressive to me, how often does one see inversion profiles such as the ones you listed Cort? Is this more likely to occur when we have large amounts of cold air sinking south into warmer profiles?

    Cort – this relates to your earlier post regarding those crazy profiles in Dallas as it pertains to inversion. If you don’t mind shedding a little light, however if you are exhausted from responding I completely understand.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Ahhh, I missed that. Well… an inversion as drastic as what was observed above OK this morning is fairly uncommon (a 30+ degree F temperature difference within a several-hundred-foot-thick layer!). If it was more common, I would have seen less meteorologists ogling over it on Twitter. :)

      I should clarify, it’s fairly uncommon in the mid-levels, at least. Near the surface in the winter, there can be some pretty significant inversions that can develop at night because of radiational cooling.

      I did see a similar type of setup last spring. There were severe thunderstorm warnings in Kansas and Nebraska from storms getting kicked up from the warm air aloft. They were dropping 1-inch hail into a low-level temperature profile that would support sleet. The surface temperatures were about 30 F as the severe hail was falling upon them.

      This temperature profile developed because of cold-air advection in the low levels and warm-air advection in the mid levels. North winds near the ground were transporting the arctic air mass southward, and SW winds aloft were transporting warm air over top of the shallow arctic air mass.

      Interestingly, this is happening thanks to how the northern stream and southern stream jet streaks are coming together. The northern stream is inducing high pressure in the lee of the northern Rockies, which is causing northerly surface winds over the Plains. The southern stream is inducing a trough/low pressure in the Tex/Mex region, which causes southerly winds at the surface and mid-levels to push against the the arctic air mass (causing the drastic temeprature difference across the cold front) and also go up over top of the cold air mass.

      Btw, the snow West Michigan had last night was thanks to the southern stream. Unfortunately for snow lovers, the region of best dynamics to produce the lift and precip was pushed progressively southward during the event.

      1. Wswplz says:

        I think you mentioned that anomaly in Kansas a few weeks back during our mini warm up and how close sum of our temp profiles were to producing a major mess, instead we transitioned to light snow. Amazing what goes on the atmosphere as I see new things all the time. Reading about mid – range forecasting currently, I’m not even sure I have a handle on d-3, d+0, d+5, d+8 etc…lol

  13. jerry hoag says:

    LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING THAT TOTAL TO 150.00 INCHES FOR THE SEASON!!!!!!!!!! WAHOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT WOULD BE IMPRESSIVE!!!!!!!

    1. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

      If that were to happen, and we add that much more snow this late into the season, on top of what we already have, I would have to think the warmup in April and May would cause flooding that would make last years look like a puddle.

  14. John (Grand Rapids) says:

    Intellicast showing very cold wind chills (-20ish) for the GR suburbs tomorrow morning!

  15. Jacob G. says:

    NW flow, mixed with some zonal flows for next few weeks. Clippers coming back and possibly towards the end of the longer term some blocking showing up, folks winter is going to hang around this year. I don’t currently see any big warm-ups coming up, and if march stays cold you have to stick with the trend. And with the frozen great lakes, huge snowpack around us, it will be a chilly spring.

    1. Cort S. says:

      All the warmth since January has been all for me in Utah. This continued tendency for west coast ridging spells more of the same:

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

      1. Jacob G. says:

        Pretty amazing pattern that is for sure. With the warm pocket of ocean off of Gulf of Alaska not breaking down anytime soon. We have the AMO gone negative this winter. Blocking could still occur with low solar (less geomagnetic), NAO has been positive for a long time now, strong MJO has been missing, the Nino regions are starting to warm up. The SOI has been crashing last 30 days. A possible development of limited El Nino may be enough to start changing the overall climate patterns over NA. Really cool to see all these climate players on the table, going to be fun to see how this evolves over time not only regionally but nationally.

      2. Wswplz says:

        This should flatten out next week some time right?

        1. Wswplz says:

          My antecedent of the indefinite pronoun ” this” is referring to the ridge as I wasn’t clear..sorry

  16. Reader says:

    Cort or Bill. We have to come home from FL this week to Holland. We are looking at Thurs and Friday. How does the weather look for our trip. We don’t want to hit snow driving a motor home but we have to get back for doctor appts. Thanks in advance.

  17. INDY says:

    sw kent must be seeing things again we still have over 30 inches of snow on the ground outside!! Its not going away anytime soon lay off the weed thing!! INDYY…..

    1. Wayne (South of GR) says:

      Where did SW Kent mention snow depth recently.
      Indy, you need to stop drinking…..you are losing your mind.

  18. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Forecasted low for tonight is -9, which is only 31 degrees lower than the average low temp. I’ve become so acclimated to lows near zero or below zero, its just no big deal anymore.

    1. Wswplz says:

      So true Mark, it conditions one fast! I used to think 40 was chilly, now that’s tropical….

  19. John (Norton Shores) says:

    1 already in Fremont, temps are dropping like flies!

  20. INDY says:

    -26* tonight in Grand Rapids get out the blanket of love!! INDYY….

    1. Wayne (South of GR) says:

      Stay off the roads please……

      1. Wswplz says:

        It snows more by Indy’s house due to river enhancement, so that’s why he usually has more snow on the ground then the rest.

        1. Wayne (South of GR) says:

          ok, that makes sense…….

        2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

          No that’s not true. Indy’s ruler broke off and is missing just over 10″
          SlimJim

        3. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

          Personally, I think he just gets centimeters and inches confused on his ruler.

  21. Its 5 degrees here right now, and its only 7:47. Temperatures are going to drop like crazy tonight.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      -1 in Fremont already, it’s dropping fast but it’s still 8 here right now, hoping it doesn’t get below zero here!

  22. Since 7:47, I have dropped from 5 degrees to 3.6 degrees

  23. INDY says:

    -3* out at the YARDofBRICKS warm up the love blanket!! INDYY

  24. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Its +6° here now. If we make to -5° after midnight that will be good for second place on the all time coldest for March 3. The coldest 3 are -8 1978, -4° 1980 and 0° in 2005. Before midnight it would have to -2° to be it the top 3 and -5° is the record set in 1967.
    SlimJim

  25. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    THIS JUST IN!!! The temp is now down here to +5° And This is ALSO JUST IN!!!!!
    BREAKING NEWS next Saturday night/Sunday morning instead of ‘springing ahead” This year we will be “Sliding ahead instead” BUT the good NEWS IS 1. The days will be getting longer and 2. It will be lighter later in the evening. And on sunny days even if its stays below freezing the sun will start working on the snow.
    SlimJim

  26. Bald Eagle (Montague) says:

    -4 here already! Would take 28 & a snow storm as to such brutal cold! Just ordered a new weather station from oregon! I’m like a kid @ Christmas! Cant wait to get it & get it set up! Stay warm out there!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Wow big difference in a 15-20 mile difference, it’s 6 here

      1. Bald Eagle (Montague) says:

        Drove home from shelby & watched the temps go from -4 to +2 all the way home.

  27. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

    -5 here in Hesperia.

  28. John (Grand Rapids) says:

    I am kind of surprised that the NWS did not issue a WCA for West Michigan, as the wind chills/temperatures could be as low as 20-25 below in some locations. It will be similar to last Friday, when they did issue a WCA.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Except.last Friday there was actually a breeze and those low numbers were widespread. Sounds like very few areas will get that low tonight, IF they get that low.

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      No wind John, wind chills will remain constant with the actual temperatures.

    3. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Never mind John a wind chill advisory is now in effect.

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