Thursday PM

March 4th, 2014 at 4:33 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local  modis    As of 5 pm – Grand Rapids added 0.3″ of snow – season total now at 110.7″.  Muskegon added 3″ and the season total for Muskegon is now 129.4″.   We’ll have an overall cool and dry pattern into early next week.  The morning European model gives G.R. a dusting of snow tomorrow and again Sunday morning.  We get  back to the freezing mark with mid-upper 30s on Friday.

All-time record lows for March were set this morning at Atlantic City NJ (2°), Dover, DE (6°), Washington D.C. (-1°), Baltimore MD (4°) – previous coldest ever in March in Baltimore (141 years of records) was +8°, and Charlottesville VA (1°).  Click on the satellite pic. on the right to enlarge…LOTS of snow on the ground across the Midwest for the first week of March. Look at the cold temperatures in S/SE Texas and Louisiana- 30+ degrees colder than average!  This morning at 9 am it was warmer in Anchorage AK than it was in Houston TX.  Freezing rain falling across SE Texas into Louisiana.  At 34 degrees, New Orleans having perhaps the coldest Mardi Gras ever.  Freezing rain and accidents cause closures on parts of I-10, I-110, US 190 and others across Louisiana.  Typhoon Faxai forms in the Pacific Ocean.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers. Here’s Closings.

293 Responses to “Thursday PM”

  1. Willy says:

    about 5 inches of snow today in North Muskegon.

  2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    For all of you dreaming about a good warm up! You are living in fantasy land! You had better get used to COLD and SNOW!!!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    1. Florida1993 says:

      Hey rocky why do you keep dreaming. With these few days of march being bitterly cold and with temps once again being well below average for the most part this week and early next week the fate of us having a much colder than average March will already be sealed. By the time we get to the middle of the month the average high are in the mid 40s. So even with temps 10-15 degrees below normal which I expect at this point temps will still be in the low to mid 30s. Combine that with the strong march sun and you have a little snow melt going on. Like bill said the snow melt will accelerate the last ten ads of the month. So you better enjoy these next two weeks cuz after that the thaw is going to happen :)

    1. Florida1993 says:

      Aw rocky ik you love the snow and cold so much but Get real! You are the one living in fantasy land. The thaw is going to begin around that date so you better enjoy all this snow while we had it :)

  3. INDY says:

    SNOW STORM CONING NEXT WEEK!! INDYY!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      You know it! Get ready to ROCK!

    2. Florida1993 says:

      Guess not bill took it off but hey 2 inches is still good right :)

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        We will take every inch we can muster at his point! We need 21 more inches baby!

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    I am glad to hear the NWS is downplaying the possible SNOWSTORM for next week! That actually increases our chances of getting hammered with SNOW! Remember we are only about 21 inches of SNOW away from history! The BEST WINTER EVER LIVES ON!

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        WOW that goes way back in time! Perfectly appropriate for the BEST WINTER EVER! Keep up the good work Jack! You are the man!

    1. Florida1993 says:

      Rocky it seems like everyday you’re predicting a big snowstorm but in the last month the most snow we have gotten in one snow went is 6 inches.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        You are wrong again! The RDB model accuracy % now stands at 85% and I have been reminding people that we will be having multiple SNOWSTORMS before this winter is over! Get it straight and get used to COLD and SNOW!

        1. Florida1993 says:

          Sure if you count 2 to 4 inches as a snowstorm. You should listen to bill he even said the snow melt will accelerate the last en ads of the month.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Of course we will be seeing some snow melt, however a lot of the warm weather nuts have been trying to tell me for about 3 weeks now that winter is over and most the snow will be gone in a week or two! That is pure rubbish and fantasy land! We have a lot of SNOW still to come before this winter is over! Get ready!

        3. Florida1993 says:

          I have to keep in the back of my mind that another big snow went will happen but by the time we hit spring the average temp is 46 so even with temps 10 degrees below normal we will still be above freezing. You enter face reality rocky in terms of snow winter is starting to wind down. Although good news for you is that it looks like cold temps all stick around for the rest of winter.

        4. Florida1993 says:

          Dang spell check lol

        5. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          You always believe what a meteorologist says? lol

          sorry bill

        6. dano (Norton Shores) says:

          Rocky, you should run for office…

  5. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Seems like there have been many new personals on this blog the past week but most of them have left, for those on here who are new, welcome!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Many of them are simply aliases!

  6. The Weather Channel now has 40 degrees for Friday!! Boy will that be a much welcomed temperature. The it has us no colder than 25 through at least March 13. I think this may be a sign of a pattern shift, but that’s just me.

    On another note, I have picked up 0.3″ from last night, bringing my season total to 117.5″. What a remarkable winter we have had, I will defiantly never forget this one. Now, lets make a summer to remember :)

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Not really a pattern shift, what’s happening is as we get closer to the middle of March average temperatures are going up, so that meaning that even if we’re 15 degrees cooler than normal that would still mean highs in the mid to upper 20′s, average highs by the end if March are in the mid 50′s so we should start warming up into the 30′s and 40′s the next couple weeks, I do think 40 is a bit high for Friday IMHO but I could be wrong.

      1. With the higher sun angle this time of year and since it is warmer, I think it can be achieved. But it would have to be complete sunshine all day, and not ducking behind the clouds

    2. Florida1993 says:

      Then it has temps in the low 20s again for the middle of next week with no major snow events. I think at this point it is a waiting game of when the snow will finally begin to melt.

  7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    This will the 13th weekend in a row with excellent outdoor winter sports conditions! That is the best winter that I have ever seen! Get outside and enjoy WINTER people!

  8. Cort S. says:

    Wswplz: I think you are looping the HRRR correctly. The check marks under the “loop” column is indeed what you are looking for. I usually do “composite reflectivity” when I post simulated radar forecasts on here. The HRRR only goes out 15 hours; there is no 24 hour HRRR as far as I know.

  9. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Hmm, the system over Minnesota looks like it is going to hit us up north some tonight. Unless just the southern part down in Iowa survives? I know it is supposed to break up some, but we shall see.

  10. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Made 20° today, a solid 19° below average for me. It actually felt as cold today as it did yesterday.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      My husband and I were saying that same thing…. today just felt cold.

  11. Matt(OceanaCo) says:

    Finally the deep freeze is over!!! Look out spring here comes Michigan!!!

  12. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    We have a ton of COLD and SNOW coming before this winter is over! Who knew?

    1. Florida1993 says:

      Mid to upper 30s later this week and early next week. Better break out the shorts and t shirts.

  13. I know a lot of people hate AccuWeather, but looking out a month in advance, we don’t have a 60 degree temperature until April 5. They have temperatures moderating near average at the end of the month (upper 40′s and lower 50′s)

    1. I usually never listen to that weather site, but its just interesting to look way in advance

      1. Florida1993 says:

        Watch them knock those temps down 15-20 degrees.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      It will be snowing the last week of March! Mark it down!

      1. Florida1993 says:

        Oh yes half an inch of snow will be devastating :)

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        This was in the wrong spot the first time,
        Its been marked but its has snowed in late March before so it can happen in the best and worst of years.
        SlimJim

      3. Me :-) says:

        It’s over Rocky. The forecast shows at least 4 days above freezing. And that is only the beginning. Sure, it will come down again for a few days, but we will hit the 60′s before April Fools Day. Let it WARM UP Let it WARM UP Let it WARM UP. :-) Wow, that felt great!!!!!! :-)

        1. Michael g (se GR) says:

          60′s this month? That’s bold. Maybe………..

        2. Florida1993 says:

          Yeah I don’t think we’ll see our first 60 degree reading until at least the first week of April, probably beyond.

        3. John (Norton Shores) says:

          60 is very unlikely this month, 50 may even be hard to approach but will be a better bet than 60.

        4. John (Norton Shores) says:

          It should also be noted we didn’t even hit the 60′s last year until about the middle of April making it even more certain we wont hit 60 this month.

      4. Paul m says:

        In the up rocky!

  14. They also have April trending at or just a little below average

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Its been marked but its has snowed in late March before so it can happen in the best and worst of years.
      SlimJim

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        Whoops wrong spot its should have been under rocky’s post
        Slimjim

  15. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Its now looks like there will not be a snow storm in our area next week. And while the temps will be below average for the most part they will be warmer then they have been the past few days and do not be too surprised if we touch 40° now and then. While the climb into spring will be a slow one this year it will come, just at a slower rate then we would like.
    SlimJim

    1. Florida1993 says:

      Like I said earlier if the snow is gone by Easter I will be happy.

    2. suehelen says:

      We don’t need 50s and 60s to start the warm up. Upper 30s and 40s will be just fine. Melt everything slowly..

  16. on the Grand says:

    Wow, 2 bald eagles just flying above the house. My son and I watch for a good 15 minutes as they flew circles across the island and back next to the deck. As my kid said we were eye to eye. It was funny there was a black bird in the yard and the eagles kept comming in real low and swooping back up. Once the eagles left the bird hide tailed out of there. They were so fast and close you thought they would fly into the sun room. They are real big.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That’s awesome. I’ve got a couple baby owls I have been watching this winter out back just before dark.

  17. on the Grand says:

    I love nature, lots around us, so come on spring. Bring it on. The bunnies are awake and the ducks are showing up.

  18. Jack says:

    Off Topic QUESTION …… Can The Big ” M” Win The Big 10 Title TONIGHT ?? STAY CUED… & Go Blue…. ;-) .

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      They can Jack. Go Blue!!!
      Sports are never off topic on here. BTW did you here what Kinsler said about the Rangers today?

      1. Jack says:

        Yup, There is 2 Ways To Look at His Comments, Either it Hurts, or….. INSPIRES !! My Hope is for The Latter, GO TIGERS, & INDYS ” M” …”Stay Cued… Weather QUESTION …For INDY!!! How Long has The IWS been Tracking The SNOWSTORM ? For next Week….?? Stay CUED…… BILLYS BLOG… ;-)

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Of course he doesn’t want the Rangers to win any games. Why would he? I believe him when he said his comments were taken out of context by the media.

  19. INDY says:

    No slim chances about a storm next week!! Looks like a 6-12 inch snow event coming!! INDYY!!

    1. SW Kent says:

      8-14 indyyy!

      1. jake says:

        Youre both delusional. Please seen help.

        1. SW Kent says:

          Jake, I was being sarcastic. Indy is drinking again.

        2. Jack says:

          Jake?….. ” From State Farm”…… LOL…. Welcome 2 Bill’s BLOG… STAY CUEDDDDD!!! ;-)

  20. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the COLD and SNOW ROCKING! This winter has been incredible and they is more where that came from!

  21. shelbyville says:

    Looks like something is in fact brewing for next week…yikes!

  22. SW Kent says:

    Meeeeeechigan is on fire

    1. Jack says:

      MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM !!!!! ILLINWHO ?? Go BLUE!!!!

      1. SW Kent says:

        Who ya pickin tomorrow Jack? Eagles or Bulldogs

  23. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Michigan is blowing the Illini out of their building! Go Blue!

  24. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    A friend of mine was ice fishing out on Muskegon Lake, where he was at the ice was 30 inches thick!

  25. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    MI has more points in one half against IL than MSU had in a game, at home. lol. I hope Sparty is taking notes.

    Signed

    B1G outright champs!!!!!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      It’s nice to see Michigan winning again. I can see Beilein getting the coach of the year award. He gets the best out of his players for sure.

      1. SW Kent says:

        I agree Mark

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Imagine if Mcgary was healthy and playing with them this year.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Hard to believe that they haven’t been out right champs since 1986. Glen Rice days.

      1. SW Kent says:

        Antione joubert

      2. Dan (Byron Center) says:

        Tarpley

        1. SW Kent says:

          Grant

      3. Wswplz says:

        They need some more boosters Like Ed Martin…hehe

  26. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Bill, do you have an up to date seasonal snowfall total that the Van Buren Road Commission has reported at their building in Bloomingdale? We always make a joke that they measure high just to beat us, and to say that they have the snowiest place in west Michigan to plow. lol

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Bloomingdale has 150.4″ for the season as of 7 am this morning…not too far behind Holland’s estimated total.

      1. Florida1993 says:

        Do you think bill we will see a 50 degree reading this month?

        1. Paul m says:

          Yes very soon. I’m think it going to happen in the next 2 weeks of a quick melt off of snow in West Michigan with bad flooding.

      2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        Thank you very much Bill. I knew they would have more than me lol

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I’ve been through there a few times this winter, and let me tell you, they have more snow then anywhere I’ve seen so far this winter.

  27. Katie in Kentwood says:

    Wake me up when the snow is melted :)

    1. Florida1993 says:

      Well I guess you will be sleeping until Easter :)

  28. INDY says:

    BIG 10 CHAMPS !!!!! MICHIGAN!!!! SPARTYS SUCK!!!! INDYY!!

    1. Katie in Kentwood says:

      Go Green! Sorry!

    2. Florida1993 says:

      Dang Michigan really wanted it. Go Blue!

    3. SW Kent says:

      Indy…..we agree on something. Have a sprite for the champs!

    4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      LOL @ INDYY.

      1. Florida1993 says:

        Lol @ Sparty

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          You do realize that this is Michigan’s first Big Ten title since Reagan was in office.

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I just can’t seem to recall whom MSU beat in the 2000 National Championship game.

        3. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Mark gets the last laugh for now.

        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I would be very happy to see Blue make another run like they did last year.

  29. So what community has seen the most snow in West Michigan this winter so far?

    1. Florida1993 says:

      I’m going to say holland or fennville.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I’m thinking the Muskegon area. If you read the blog, it seems they get a couple of inches every day.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        As usual, can’t tell if you’re being a jerk…but anyways, it is true. We get a couple inches every day or every other day. We’ve been missed by the big storms though, unlike Asome of the further south areas. I’m not lying when I say it is snowing, Marky boy.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Paranoid much? I’m not sure why you assumed I was referring to you. I don’t know even where Spring Lake is exactly.

          Marky boy? Really? I expected for a bit more maturity and civility from someone entrusted with molding and influencing young minds.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Marky boy was a joking around name. I do have a sense of humor, which is a great quality for a teacher. You seem to like to pick that out and hold it over my head. Teachers are humans too. My opinion of you is that you seem to pick at anybody who loves snow. If I’m wrong, please forgive me.

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          You are forgiven.

    3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      I would say it’s pretty close between Allegan, Bloomingdale, Hamilton, Holland. Maybe a few more locations in Ottawa County that are in the running as well. Not sure if any location in Muskegon County has gone over 150″ so far. I’ve had 142″ so far, and I know Allegan has had a few lake effect snowfalls that were substantially larger than me…so I would say they are in the 150-160″ range.

      1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

        142.5″ here. Still trailing 08-09 by 1.5″. I think that year, we had one huge lake effect event with 18″ in one night, and the late March storm with 14″. That’s 32″ from two events. This year, we haven’t had any huge storms….but a lot of 3-5″, 4-6″, etc.

        1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          My biggest snowfall was during that huge snowstorm in early January. I recorded 16″ over 2 days. I have recorded quite a few 5-8″ snowfalls this winter. I also had that big lake effect snowfall in late January when I recorded 9″ in just under 5 hours. No complaining on my part of a lack of “major” snowfalls this winter compared to an average winter.

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I wish I would have started adding totals from the beginning. I have picked up more than Muskegon,. However, some of those storms that hit further south this winter didn’t hit us as hard. My guess is today’s several inches put me over 140 inches.

    4. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Probably Bloomingdale or Bangor.

  30. John (Norton Shores) says:

    As of today we are up to 136″ for the season.

  31. John (Norton Shores) says:

    And since last year at this time I’ve had 235″ of snow!

  32. Wswplz says:

    Cort- Thanks I don’t no why it wasn’t looping when I when I last tried, but for some reason when you provided the link it worked for me. Lol. Anyways I appreciate the magical link..!

  33. Wswplz says:

    So has anyone been checking the medium / long range outlooks to see if we have something to track, or even small fantasy probabilities? I had to work late and haven’t looked at much, except skim through some of the comments. So is that storm for next week already a miss to our south or are there some models still holding on. RDB 85% accuracy Rocky?

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      He said it was 87% last week. Must have been the 10″ he called for.

      1. Wswplz says:

        This winter has been crazy, and if it ended today we would be fortunate to have received what we did. I’m sure I’m one of the few, but wouldn’t be cool to have one more big daddy snow event to track to cap off this winter. The blog is always much more alive preceding large events, and it’s fun throwing out the good old predictions. It wouldn’t be the same if we didn’t have the classic debates as to direction, snow accums, school closings( maybe not to much) winter storm vs winter weather advisory, why we are never mentioned in the news, and finally to break the record!!

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      The models have been flip flopping the past couple days. So stay tuned to later forecasts I guess. This time of year, given the pattern I think anything could happen. No ice please.

      1. Wswplz says:

        Ya, I think he might have been banking on a future storm 87%..hehe. I’ll take a look then Brian, as I kinda like it when they are jumping around a bit. We seem to have good luck when that happens, as I’m sure with these temps bouncing around it’s probably a bit hard for the models to simulate a solid track and who knows when that cold air is going to drop again. I don’t want a mixed precip event either, I would rather just pass altogether as that would cause more damage then good. It will start creeping north with the models on Friday, as I have a felling this will happen, no data to support my claim..lol

    3. Jack says:

      My OLE JEM Model, is Getting a CUE- UP before SPRING arrives ! In other Words… JEM WORLD IS Closed Until Spring..SPRINGS ? Stay CUED …..

    4. Cort S. says:

      The Euro is pretty boring. Some additional light snow accumulations south of I-96 Wednesday morning. The northern stream gives a couple snow-making disturbances to Ontatio and the U.P. Thurs-Fri and the southern stream makes a Gulf Low. A weak disturbance may bring another stripe of light snow accumulations to southern Lower MI Saturday (GFS says it goes south of MI), then another disturbance gives northern Ontario snow Sunday (GFS says it hits Lower Michigan). Then another disturbance brings a stripe of moderate-heavy snow across the U.P. and Northern Lower Monday, but maybe that will change. Really no big system to talk about in the next 180 hours.

      But if you want to look at fantasy… I suggest you look at the 12Z GFS from hours 276-336. There’s a monster storm for the eastern third of the US and a dumping of snow for Michigan. Of course, in the 18Z GFS, this system is nonexistent.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Lol. So basically, it looks like there are many more opportunities for snow…and snow misses. The winter lives on!

  34. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

    So how does it look for a possible snow storm next week? Yes, no, or maybe???

    1. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      Almost no mention of it anymore by any of the surrounding NWS offices.

  35. Wswplz says:

    So who received 4-5″ today, as I saw someone mentioned that where was that…I surprised to here 5″ wow!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Many places in the Muskegon/Norton Shores/Spring Lake area did. We definitely got lake enhancement today. The plow drivers did a really good job clearing off the roads in time for rush hour. They were nowhere to be seen this weekend and roads were horrible. Today, the roads were wonderful on my way home!

      5 inches of fresh fluff out there!

      1. Cort S. says:

        That’s really cool, considering how that little patch of blue water in the southern part of Lake Mich (per the recent satellite images) along with favorable wind direction and perhaps some confluence gave you lake enhancement. I can imagine all models of all scales (global and mesoscale) have got to be pretty useless at being able to predict localized lake-effect given the rapid fluctuation in ice cover. Just incredible and fun to think about.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Excellent point, Cort. It was really interesting to watch it on radar. While most of the precip. Associated with the low moved off, the same band of snow just kept working its way over our area. Nice snowflake size throughout the day too!

        2. Wswplz says:

          Ya I’m really surprised as I was skimming through the comments I saw Matt mentioned he was getting heavy snow, and I thought I was looking at comments from this morning but it was from late afternoon. The lake is amazing as LES was just a term I used to hear but I never put much thought into how it actually happened,,until I moved out here from Ca and I looked on the radar and noticed it was only snowing in our area. Lol. Speaking of models, which one does the best job predicting LES given the lake isn’t frozen over??

        3. Cort S. says:

          Yeah, and looked like such a narrow band of enhancement on radar, with reflectivity not really all that significant. It’s likely that the best layer of big snowflake production was taking place at elevations below the radar beam. It was really cool to watch the radar capturing both layers of snow production though. You could see the SW-NE enhancement band traveling NE while snow from the disturbance aloft traveled E. I was wondering what your snow/liquid ratio might have been given the two different snow production layers. Sounds like they were fairly high since you got those nice fluffy big dendrite crystals.

        4. Cort S. says:

          Wsw: Since lake-effect is a convective and small-scale (mesoscale) process, you need a model that has high spatial resolution in order to best capture the localized variability of lake-effect. The GFS and Euro are global models and are designed to better handle the synoptic scale (low-pressure systems) over longer time periods. The GFS does a decent job of predicting the intensity of lake-effect, but its output has a very coarse resolution. The Euro has better spatial resolution than the GFS, so it can be a little more precise. A mesoscale and convection-allowing model such as the HRRR can resolve features as small as an individual lake band, especially if that lake band might be a dominant mid-lake convergence band in north flow.

        5. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Yeah, this new stuff won’t last long in the March sunshine.

        6. Wswplz says:

          Yeah, that would make sense given the nature of LES, as one would almost be better off tracking it like a big convective thunder storm. What about those images we were looking at a while back that I think 4 guys ( mets ) use a server located at a college, as I can’t recall the name but I think it was in Minnesota if I remember correctly, maybe Wisconsin. I remember they had some good sampling of data they were running through there system, on a much smaller scale with higher resolution. Seemed once they latched on to the storm it did a great job, I’m not sure if that would carry over to our LES events or not?

        7. Cort S. says:

          Yeah, the WRF model is another high-resolution model that can capture mesoscale features quite well. And since the code is open-source, you can customize your own WRF model with different parameterizations. And if you want to run multiple flavors of the WRF model in concert, you’ve got yourself an ensemble. The meteorologists in Minnesota run what they call the “HopWRF”, since they can “hop” the domain of the model to different geographic areas to focus on one storm system.

          Here is how the 4 members of the HopWRF ensemble are configured:

          http://www.hopwrf.info/memberinfo.html

          Do all these different Microphysics, Boundary Layer, Surface Layer, Convective, and Radiation parameterization schemes sound complicated to you? Me too. This is way beyond my area of expertise.

        8. Wswplz says:

          Ha ha ha…ya right. I feel like I did the first day I worked for ADP and we were going over how to set up remote hosting, data integration IP telephony / routing etc…lol. If that’s remotely over your head then, I’m not even in the same stratosphere.

        9. Cort S. says:

          Hmmm… I think I know some of those words…

  36. So far this season Byron Center has received 117.5″. I would be interested to know the total for Byron Center’s snowiest winter. I can’t be a long way off

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Probably close to GR’s record total, maybe more since BC gets more lake effect than GR.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I am guessing Grandville gets the most snow in Kent County?

      1. Wswplz says:

        Walker is probably a candidate

        1. Wswplz says:

          Wyoming??

      2. Wswplz says:

        Granville is in a good local, as they get the dual threat events, LES and still catch the snow makers.

      3. Brian(Grandville) says:

        I win. I did live in Byron Center for 15 years and we got a lot there too. But even when I lived there I would see reports of Grandville getting more snow than B.C. consistently.

        1. Wswplz says:

          Ya, I think your correct as I like driving over your way to drive in snow. I like that area around the river, where you can drive on that road which kinda parallels the highway, I think it’s a park rd with a gate that says closed after sun down, and it’s usually not plowed often. Also some other places near by that you can drive out to little oil pumping stations. I also enjoy driving out towards Holland where there is just a ton of snow, pretty cool, I know I’m weird..lol

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Brian wins. :)

          We snow lovers are a different breed. Snow was part of the decision on where to live for a job. Wifey says she picks next….and she would choose Georgia. I would cry. Lo.

  37. Wswplz says:

    Hah that’s funny Matt , but just remember to go along with what ever she picks( if she in fact gets a next ) as Georgia would seem like heaven as opposed to going against the wifey’s wishes…lol and on the bright side you would get some good thunder shows, maybe even a hurricane.. :)

  38. Wswplz says:

    What happened to Rocky, we need a good RDB snow storm….I just looked out into fantasy land looking at the 12 z gfs 300hr and I see that we would get a good dumping and the east coast would nearly be wiped out around the 17-18 of this month if ” fantasy island ” were more than a cancelled show. Thee storm Thee storm…

    1. Jack says:

      PLANE , and Simple When it comes to The last line of Your Comment ….wswplz . Not to many Folks on Here Remember TATOO….. Stay Cued….wiheather WISE,,,, Count Me,,,,READY Kiss This WINTER…… GOOD- Bye….. Enough Records being smashed + trashed … HURRY SPRING.. I gotta Bad case of WINTER BLUES !!! Help Mr. WIZARD….help… ?? Hahahaha…..

  39. Jack says:

    Listening To, A.C. Reed & Stevie Ray Vaughn !! These BLUES is Killing ME :::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOLxxszFaMg. Winter Blues …. Stay CUED… ;-)

  40. Jack says:

    Followed by….. :::::: The Doors Roadhouse Blues – YouTube
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU9JWukf07c
    Crank it Up…on This wasted Wednesday Morning…. ;-)

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