Good News

March 9th, 2014 at 1:31 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

modis great lakes  Riverside Park - Harvey Alley  Riverside Park - Harvey Alley ducks  Click on the pics. to enlarge.  The first is a MODIS satellite picture from Saturday afternoon.  Note the large amount of ice (though past peak) on the Great Lakes.  Check out the ice moving in this satellite loop from Saturday (takes a minute to load).   There’s still some cold air around.  Intl. Falls MN set a record low of -19  Sat. morning.  The other two pictures are from Harvey Alley at Riverside Park, where the river is mostly frozen, but there is a little open water and there are some ducks who are managing to survive the late winter.  The very good news is that we are in an overall dry pattern.  We’re down to 16″ of snow on the ground in G.R. (as of Sat. evening.   It still appears that the Tues. storm will be too far southeast to give us more than a trace-3″ and a touch of rain to start, perhaps.  If there’s a 3″ total, it’d be down toward Coldwater or Hillsdale.  Here’s the GFS model view of the storm on the East Coast late Weds.   It was nice to see nearly 80 turn out for the Muskegon Skywarn Training session.  Next Saturday we have Van Buren Co. at 10 am and Allegan/Barry at 2 pm.  I’m going to try and make the Allegan/Barry meeting at the start – I’ll have to get to work after that.  I’m doing the evening shift both Sat. and Sun. next weekend.  Happy Daylight Saving Time…sunrise at 8:05 am this Sunday and sunset is 7:41 pm for G.R.   March 1-7 temps. were 10-18 degrees cooler than average in Minneapolis, Chicago, Grand Rapids, Pittsburgh, New York City and Boston.

The GFS shows a big (snow) storm around the 17th, but the European doesn’t see that (and I don’t either at this point).  The European has +40 temps. on Monday, Tuesday, Friday and Saturday of next week (Weds. and Thurs. look chilly), but an overall dry week.  We melt a little snow gradually.  We need this pattern to hold until most of the snow is gone and the ice is breaking up on the rivers.  Also, people keep asking me about the summer.  Following cold, snowy winters…there is usually a 4-6 day period of warm (+10 to +15 above average) in April or May and then summer temps. are near average.  We’ve had big flips before (the winter of 35-36 was very cold and snowy – then we had the hottest week in G.R. history in July 1936), but most summers are near average and that would be a good guess for June – August at this point.  March severe weather has been weak last year and so far this year because it’s been too cold.   Most models suggest we go to an El Nino pattern.  You’ll probably see the media hype that.  Keep in mind that El Ninos during a cold PDO tend to be weak-moderate and centered a bit more out in the central Pacific rather than the eastern Pacific toward S. America.  Weak El Ninos can (not always, but can) bring cold and snowy winters to the Great Lakes (1976-78).  I’m not betting on a really warm summer or winter of 2014-15 at this point.

327 Responses to “Good News”

  1. yooper4021 says:

    Afternoon NWS update is out – Tuesday night and Wednesday are sounding more interesting. Could be 6 inches along I-94 corridor, and a brief dose of potentially record cold on the backside of the system.

    http://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.fxus63.KGRR.html

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Who knew?

      1. Wswplz says:

        Hey, I didn’t know, however I didn’t completely not know, only 80%….lol

        Wswplz says:
        March 8, 2014 at 11:53 am
        * this storm could still impact those further south, 1-94 ish and below so it’s still something to watch for some. I’m still a bit puzzled as well looking at the latest run of the GFS, not sure what other people think, but this still has a slight chance to surprise many and track north. I’m going with a thin 10% chance….

        Reply

      2. Wswplz says:

        One more for fun….Now it most likely will be rain…

        March 7, 2014 at 1:49 pm
        It is quite interesting to watch the 5 day loop on the GFS compared to a blend of the ensembles…. I really don’t think the GFS by itself has the correct grasp on how things will play out, as for one it holds the southern track much further south and east and second I believe the low to have more strength then it’s currently showing. My gut says this will be a significant event for our southern cwa, but it still will move north in the days that follow as the ecmwf would suggest… I think trying to nail down a forecast( one event ) especially during this time of year can be extremely difficult as so much can change from day to,day.

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Right now it sounds like 3-6″ along the 94 corridor maybe 1-3″ along 96 and little if anything north of 96 I would be fine with the nothing but if we have to get snow I would rather 1-3″ than 3-6″, 50 sounds great tomorrow It will feel like spring! :)

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        John! You abandoned me…your local snow-brother… :P

      2. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Haha I’m sorry I’m just ready to track some storms and get some 70′s and 80′s in the forecast! :) don’t worry though I will be to snow mode by December ;)

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          November.

          :P

    3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      ANOTHER system going to the south of us?!? Geesh…stubborn pattern.

      1. Wswplz says:

        I’m still hanging in Matt, I just like the convective storms as well, as I know you are a woolly mammoth and would prefer the ice age( not good for the better half)) with me liking it all, except extreme heat…lol. The snow demons and snow clowns for life ! Hehe

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          lol

  2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    In honor of Bill’s thread title “GOOD NEWS” here is some great news for WINTER sports lovers! The core of the COLD is right over MI!!!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Rain.

      :P :P :P

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        LOL

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Snow Demon.

      :P :P :P

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I know I must be a horrible person for loving COLD and SNOW!

        1. Barb says:

          Yes, if you don’t seem to care about the animals/birds that don’t have anything to eat. Have a heart, kid!

      2. Wswplz says:

        Snow Demons: ” Snow or Die ” Not Ride or die….lol

    2. Julie says:

      I hope not. I am running out of hay for our horses and will be out by April 15th. Worried the grass won’t be in by then!

  3. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Hey all, I was out clearing the ice from the drains in the street. I’M here to tell you that there is a good 8 to 10. Inches of solid ice under the snow. So while we have lost some snow, the real thaw hasn’t started yet!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Imagine that! This is why the skiing and snowmobiling will be very good for many, many, many more weeks! Still time for the warm weather nuts to take up a winter sport yet this year :)

      1. paul m says:

        Remember this is going to be a nice melt off the next 48 hrs Cu’s it not going below freezing
        at all.if the sun shine Monday bet some places hit 60.

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          That is funniest most delusional thing that I heard since Travis told us we were headed for a winter just like last year!!!!!!!!! Too funny!

        2. paul m says:

          Hey Rocky you what going to be funny watching the radar as the storm goes thrum the Ohio valley like they been predicting.more warm no snow!

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Yes that is even a funnier and more delusional comment than your other one! INCREDIBLE, however this is coming from a person that said all of the snow would be melted by the third week of March! Ya right – it will be snowing the third week of March adding to our deep snow pack! Imagine that!

    2. shelbyville says:

      I went for a walk with my 6yr old daughter around a trail on our property. She walked on top of the snow, I fell through each step about 20″. It was a good workout.

      1. Wswplz says:

        One of the pluses in being a kid….

  4. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Tonight it will be light until 7:30-8 I like that.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Me too. I do LOVE having time in the evening to go for a nice, long walk in the peaceful nature. I need it after being filled in a school with hundreds of wonderful teenagers. I love my students…but I need that peace in the evening.

    2. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

      :)

  5. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I don’t know. I’m kind of skeptical of the Muskegon area getting into the upper 40s with a Southwest wind coming off of the chilly lake and clouds through much of the day tomorrow. We’re entering that time of the year where the closer to Lake Michigan one is, the colder it is.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No chance for Muskegon to get into the upper 40′s!

      1. paul m says:

        Your right Rocky no 40s all 50s

      2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Just like GR wouldn’t get above 32. Delusional. What a joke. Fantastic I love it. Who knew.?

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Shhhh 50 will be nice for one day, don’t say anything to Lake Michigan ;)

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Haha…it sure is chillier outside today than I thought it would be. The low clouds, with wind and a temp around freezing = brrrr. It’s amazing how a sunny day with temps around 40 can make 32 feel chilly again.

        1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

          Made 47 here for a brief period. Said 47 in 2 different trucks and 48 on my outdoor thermometer.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Wow, Brad. We’ve been stuck around freezing all day up in these parts. Did you guys get sun down there?

  6. Wswplz says:

    The forecast for Tuesday – Wednesday seems a bit tricky with this system moving east , cold article are dropping south/ east then some moisture moving along with the low coming out of the south, then moving wast, not to mention the dual jet pattern ridding out along these fronts slitting up to the north and the other along the bottom of the trough . Glad I’m not doing this forecast. The snow that develops between is going to be sig, especially for some east coast people. This won’t effect us much at all, but the low coming out of the south might as we pick up some of the deformation…..

  7. on the Grand says:

    I agree, love to hit the warmer temperatures but the lakeshore will be cooler. I love it in the summer time. Natural AC sometimes. In the spring you can feel the cold air in the wind coming from the lake. Sometimes I am in warmer clothes and when we go downtown, we look silly because everyone else is dressed cooler.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Sure can! I remember in June one time, depending on how the wind shifted, the temperature was going up and down probably about 10 degrees. It was pretty neat. Where on the Grand are you?

  8. Might as well start getting to know this definition again, its been filed away all winter. Winter is over, and here we come thunderstorms :)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_thunderstorm_warning

    1. Wswplz says:

      Not here yet, but I wish it were…But Wednesday I bet there will be some mild thunderstorms within the baroclinic zone, between theses two systems…

      1. It will be here before we know it! The winter definitions can be put back into there file cabinet, other than maybe our Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings

        1. Wswplz says:

          So your saying there won’t be any WWA, or WSW ??? I think you might be surprised..I bet there is going to be one of those before a severe thunderstorm warning.

        2. Wswplz says:

          Rather SVA or SVRTSM

        3. I’m not saying there won’t be one, but we know them already since we have gotten so many this season that we can put them away lol. Time to brush up on our spring and summer weather terms

        4. Wswplz says:

          I’m ready!

        5. jerry hoag says:

          Kyle, First Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for West Michigan will be April 3rd!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. Wswplz says:

    * wow: arctic air, then east not wast, splitting … Not typing fast anymore ..lol

  10. Please warm up! My swimming pool will be like a giant ice cube till August!

    1. Wswplz says:

      How far down is your pool frozen?

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I thought you were supposed to empty out a pool..or have a heater for it? Wouldn’t the ice push against the concrete and mess up the foundation of your pool?

      1. We had few fold up chairs on the cover of our pool so the cover would forsure stay on, but then the rain came and I forgot that the chairs were still there, so there are now frozen in the ice. Havnt seen them since December….Lol

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          LOL…I used a broom to sweep off my car one day (in January?) and then set against the house. Needless to say, that broom as been locked in that same spot for two months now. I try to pull it out, but it part of the glacier.

  11. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    18Z NAM now showing about 6-10″ for everyone south of I-96…with some spots along I-94 nearing a foot of snow. Must be an outlier…maybe.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      I was JUST going to say something about this. Quite the cutoff in amounts. The NWS mentioned that too. The NAM has really bumped it up north and made it stronger. One more jog north, and much of our area will be get slammed.

      This is what I thought would happen. Once the warmth starts jogging north, we may have some warmer days, but more potential for snowstorms since we are closer to the Jet Stream.

        1. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

          Looks good, but it needs to nudge farther north – say like to Newaygo County.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          FANTASTIC! Bring that baby another 50 to 100 miles farther North and BAM we will get hammered! Does that sound familiar? Who knew?

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      How is this possible! Last week there was a grand total of three people that predicted we would be seeing accumulating SNOW from the this system? Also everyone is talking about how warm it is going to be this week ! Ya right! COLD and SNOW rules!

        1. Idk why anyone would want another storm. The later and later we get in the season with storms, the higher the chance for flooding. The people who love winter won’t be excited and enthused anymore when they have a flooded basement…just sayin

        2. Wswplz says:

          Kyle I don’t want flooding….aren’t you going tornadoes hunting in the spring? Just sayin..

        3. suehelen says:

          I’m with Kyle.

  12. Jack says:

    On March 9 in Southwest Lower Michigan…

    3/9/1996
    Record subzero cold grips Lower Michigan with Grand Rapids and Lansing falling to 7 below zero and Muskegon hitting 6 below.
    3/9/1998
    Arctic air plunges across the Great Lakes after one of the warmest winters on record. The above normal water temperatures contribute to heavy lake effect snow squalls that produce blizzard conditions. From 8 to 12 inches of snow is piled into deep drifts by winds gusting over 40 mph. Good OLE History…..Does History Repeat itself ??? Stay CUED…. ;-)

  13. Michael g (se GR) says:

    So, for all the talk of a pattern change and the end of winter, we have yet to have a day this month warmer than 3* BELOW normal, we have a snowstorm on the way that will either hit us or miss us to the SOUTH, and either way the NWS is talking temps falling into the teens late Wednesday and record lows near zero on Thursday morning,

    1. We havnt seen a temperature warmer than 3 degrees below normal? I made it to 47 on March 7.

      1. Michael g (se GR) says:

        -3* according to the NWS.

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        I think if you figured in the low for that day, it still equaled out to the # Micheal pointed out.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      + 100 Gazillion!

  14. Wswplz says:

    No matter if people don’t want this system to produce snow or those that do, it’s just a bit more lively / interesting to have something to talk about on the blog, I would think most wouldn’t argue with that. For myself and a few others that would like to see a direct hit and the others who are polar opposite can say I told ya so if it misses, either way more interesting. :)

    1. A true Bills Blog blogger comes on here a writes no matter what the weather. I don’t think I ever get bored on this blog. There’s always SOMETHING to talk about

      1. Wswplz says:

        Yes yes yes, I said it’s more interesting! So I guess you don’t agree, which is okay as well. I know you want the weather to change so you can chase storms, I get it. You were also the one who wanted an ICE storm remember, so easy does it

        1. No I want it to finally become spring so I can finally move out of Byron Center to a quieter town that’s more rural. I am excited about storm chasing to, but that’s not why I want it to be sping. And yes, I did want a ice storm. I have never experieced one as big as we got this year so I wanted to experience what going through one was like

        2. Wswplz says:

          I’m sure you are aware how much damage ice storms can cause, but it’s probably safe to say you don’t wish for people to be without power or a tornado to level a town.( but seeing one is a goal) That same logic can be applied to wanting to see a snow storm, even if that doesn’t fit into your future wants or plans, that doesn’t deduce that people want flooding. Spring will come…no worries there.

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      + one trillion!

  15. shelbyville says:

    I can’t wait for tomorrow’s run on this system…this will fun to watch. Even though I’m done with the snow, and looking forward to prepping the garden (which is buried in about 20″ of snowpack)..BTW I let the chickens out for the first time in about 4 months, they loved it! Even walking on the snow!

  16. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    I was in Cheboygan this weekend. It was 40 on Friday, 25 and very sunny yesterday and 2 degrees this morning at 8 a.m., and nowhere left to put the snow for the people who live in town.

    1. Barb says:

      We have a summer home just outside Cheboygan. From what I hear, we’ll have snow there for at least a month yet.

  17. Jack says:

    FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH…. Here is YE OLE Farmers Almanac ::: MARCH 2014: temperature 37° (1° below avg.); precipitation 3″ (avg.); Mar 1-7: Snow showers, cold; Mar 8-11: Sunny, turning warm; Mar 12-15: Rainy periods, cooler; Mar 16-19: Rain, then wet snow, colder; Mar 20-24: Snow showers, cold; Mar 25-31: Rainy periods, mild. STAY CUED…………….. ;-)

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Then April 3rd, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEST MICHIGAN!!!!!!!!!!!!! WAHOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Wswplz says:

        I’m not sure if we get clipped with this or what, but those folks to the north-east better hunker down as some may see 10-12″ from this storm, maybe even a few 12+

      2. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

        What’s the 18Z GFS have to say in reply to this?

        1. Wswplz says:

          I don’t think it’s out just yet

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Because of the ridiculous time change the model runs are all one hour latter!

        3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          We need this baby to slow down and move a little bit more to the North – then watch out!

        4. Wswplz says:

          +1

      3. shelbyville says:

        Does the evaporating snow factor in on the available moisture for a system like this?

        1. Wswplz says:

          That would be a question to Cort or Bill….I would guess not to much, if it were at all, but interesting question though….Cort where are ya..lol

      4. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Does GR really have to be on the cutoff AGAIN…

        1. Wswplz says:

          Shhhhh…

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          GR is not being cut off and this baby moves antother 50 to 75 miles farther North we may just get HAMMERED with SNOW!!!

          http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

        3. Wswplz says:

          Looks like a little snow developing to our North..

    1. Brad (Van Buren) says:

      We won’t get that.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Yes you might get more than that!

        1. Wswplz says:

          Work some of your cold and snow magic.. :)

  18. Wswplz says:

    If this current thinking holds true and by the looks of the GFS, I would think GR would be just on the edge of the deformation zone and just pick up 1-2″, most likely the 1″ to the north of 1-96 and growing to 2″ south of that, with areas south of the 94 and east picking up more sig snow….let’s hope this trends north by tom

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I agree – the runs in the AM will be critical. Will the Northward trend continue? That is the question! If it does we may get walloped with SNOW and then more COLD and SNOW the following week! Who said winter is over? They were kidding, right?

      1. Wswplz says:

        It’s kinda fun to watch the tide of bloggers go in and out as winter is thought to retreat only to show its self time and time again…as someone said in an earlier post let the struggle begin! It was 12 degrees last night here and colder temps possibly on the way Wednesday evening as the arctic air invades again with readings in the low singles, not quite spring yet although some 40-50 will be mixed in here and there.

  19. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Looks like more snow for me midweek. NWS Northern Indiana gives me moderate accumulations Tuesday night and moderate accumulations again on Wednesday. If it’s going to be cold, it should snow. This is a neat week of weather upcoming. Warm on Monday with cold and snow Tuesday-Thursday, then back to milder temps by Friday, then another cool down into next week.

  20. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Boy, oh Boy…check out this cutoff. For the snow lovers like me, just move it up north a bit. I’m tired of the good synoptic snow going south. Well, still looks like 4 inches here.

    I definitely won’t be awake to check out if this goes back south on the 00Z runs. Maybe I’ll check back on here during commercial breaks of….”THE WALKING DEAD”

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        The NAM typically way overdoes snowfall amounts, I have my doubts that any one location in Michigan will get up to 16″ of snow with the next system, 8-10″ certainly is not out of the question though.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      We have plenty of time for this baby to move North! ROCK n ROLL will never die!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      You’re good. The GFS looks to keep it south of us still. As usual, the NAM and GFS aren’t agreeing.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      1. Yes that’s the 18z GFS and 2. That would indicate that most of the snow would be to our south and even more to the south east. And 3 that is a 16 day total!
      SlimJim

  21. shelbyville says:

    I would like to know from Bill or Cort if the melting snow will impact the NW flow of the system moving through midweek.

  22. It really just depends on how much and how early we get phasing with the northern branch, I have said for many days I thought this had a chance to be a big storm for the Great Lakes, now the models are catching on to a rapidly deepening system but again if it doesn’t strengthen fast enough then it will take the heavy snow to the east and southeast of Michigan, a much faster process could dump heavy snow on much of the area, the best bet still is for southeast lower Michigan but the trend has been stronger but it’s still very much a wait and see as the models play out their normal games. But it’s a storm very much in play for the entire area.

  23. Over the next 3 weeks it’s going to be like Rockem, Sockem Robots for the eastern 1/3 of the country.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Will Rocky be a’rockin or will Rodey be a’sockin?

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I will be ROCKING and we have a ton of COLD and SNOW yet to come this Winter and early Spring! Imagine that! BRING IT!

  24. IrritatedLurker says:

    please let Tuesday’s storm miss us. this is getting unbearable for those who suffer from SAD (Yes, it is real.) Please let March go by quickly and April bring no snowstorms.

    1. Barb says:

      Amen! We really need some spring-like weather. The early spring flowers won’t have a chance!

  25. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Well even thought there were some who claimed GR would not get above freezing today we did (37°) and here its still 36° with cloudy skies and some wind. Tomorrow temps will depend a lot of how much sun we get and yes it could be cooler near the lake. As for any storm mid week its still too close to call. We may get several inches or we may get any at all. The case can be made we do not need any more snow at all so that is the one I will go with at this time. I still feel that if we get a bigger storm it will come after most if not all of the snow is gone. But like I said earlier we are getting into the time of year where if it snows during the day it may not stick so snow would have to fall after sun set to have its full effect.
    SlimJim

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      So another day with well below average temps! The daily average was a whopping 9 degrees below average!

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        And its still got into the mid to upper 30′s
        Who would have known???
        SlimJim

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          :)

      2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        I’ve only had 14 days above average since December 1, I believe.

    2. DJ2450 (Central Gratiot) says:

      Why will it be cooler by the lake? The lake surface is no colder than the current snow surface on the ground. Until the snowpack is off the ground I doubt it will be any cooler by the lake. Metropolitan areas with pave surfaces and roof tops that are bare will be warmer. However, until the snow is off the ground and the ground surface can warm the lake will have little effect on the air temperature compared to snow covered ground.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        You may have a good point there.
        SlimJim

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        The lake cools air that would otherwise be warm by the time it gets to the lakeshore. 50 degree air will mix with colder, more dense air over the lake compared to a relatively smaller layer of chill over the snowpack on land.

        For those of us on the lakeshore, we get it. It happens every spring. The snowpack usually lasts longer into the spring as well, as the lake is like a refrigerator.

        1. DJ2450 (Central Gratiot) says:

          The NWS does not agree with you. They have the Muskegon high tomorrow of 48 and 90 miles inland here in Gratiot Co. the high temp. is predicted to be 48. I lived at the lakeshore for 35 years and I know we get warmer here many times in the spring but not usually unitil the snow is off the ground.

        2. DJ2450 (Central Gratiot) says:

          What will really play a big factor for high temps. tomorrow is how much sun any particular location receives.

      3. John (Norton Shores) says:

        The snowpack will probably play a significant roll to our temperatures until it is melted. Then the lake cooling will kick in.

        1. DJ2450 (Central Gratiot) says:

          Exactly and that is when the mets will say “cooler by the lake”.

  26. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    On a side note I took some snow depth measurements and there is still between 15 and 18” of snow in the yard and the snow piles are still around 8 feet so there is still a lot of snow out there.
    SlimJim

  27. mr. negative says:

    March…it snows through most of March. April…snow remains, and it also snows in April. May…the first best chance at losing some snow cover. One of those years.

  28. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    We’ve seen the models do this a few times this winter. Storm predicted to stay south of us, then a couple days out, the NAM shows it going further north, and then it ends up south. Most of the big storms have missed us south this year….I suspect this will be no different.

  29. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Whatever snow we may get will likely melt by the end of the week.

    1. SW Kent says:

      Correct

  30. Mark (EGR) says:

    Amazing to me that upper 40s will be our highest temp since early December.

  31. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The temperature is going up, I was at 32 all day and now I am up to 35.

  32. SW Kent says:

    Just measured 15 inches. I had 29 inches 3 weeks ago.

  33. kevin. w says:

    Just watched a very interesting piece on CNN about this winter and its effects on the wildlife across the northern United States and of course Canada. The one thing that was mentioned more than at least three times is the amount of devastation this winter will have on wildlife. The numbers are going to be pretty moderate on winter kill this year AND with the honeybee population. Basically what is being said on CNN is that the honeybee colonies may take a serious hit with this intense cold winter. So lets stop wishing for more cold and lets get this corner turned toward spring and anyone wishing for more cold and snow has got to be a sick person. We need to start melting this stuff get the lakes/rivers opening up and get the wildlife back on there feet and get OUR heating bills down. Anyone doesn’t agree with me is in need of some help.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Great to see you back Kevin! Was wondering for a while where you were at.

      1. kevin. w says:

        Hey John I’m just tired of the bullshit from some people on here. Sorry for the language. Should have watched CNN its a sad story and the bee population is scary with the intense cold.

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          I understand completely, it’s alright, it’s good to see you back! Hopefully we’ll be seeing more of you?

        2. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

          If I remember right, don’t you make a ton of maple syrup? Will it be a good year because of the cold?

    2. yooper4021 says:

      Call me naive, but do you honestly think that anyone on this blog wishes anyone harm or hardship??

      1. Wswplz says:

        I guess I need to seek therapy because I do like snow, so call me crazy.

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Thank you! We can’t enjoy talking about snow on a weather blog? Wow.

        Nature has a way of balancing itself out. Many of the times we have had issues with invasive species it is because humans tried to “fix” something. that doesn’t mean we don’t be stewards of the earth. But getting mad and mean towards people who enjoy winter is just ridiculous. Let it snow!

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          There’s nothing wrong with rooting for snow. But when it hogs the blog with repetitive nonsense and involves insulting and calling people names when they don’t agree with them, that’s what the people are sick of. But then you already knew that because it’s been said time and again but for some reason, seems to fall on deaf ears.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Mark, what is your deal? I am aware of that. Your “warm must come” buddies do the same thing. Why are you constantly arguing with me?

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Settle down, fella. You have an opinion and so do I. Sometimes we agree, sometimes we don’t. I’m sorry you take a weather blog so personally.

        4. SW Kent says:

          Mark, Matt is a very sensitive young man.

        5. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          It’s true.

        6. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Well then, I recommend practicing The Golden Rule.

    3. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

      The bees have bigger problems than the cold. Honeybees have been on the decline for years and their diseases are now starting to spread to bumblebees. Pesticides are believed to be one of the causes.

      As for the cold, I am ready for spring as well. While it has been a long, cold winter…and tough on wildlife, I think Mother Nature has a way of balancing things out. Last few years, there were articles about how the warm winters in the UP were causing overpopulation of deer…in addition, ticks have been on the rise as well throughout the state.

      1. yooper4021 says:

        Well said, Jim, especially about Mother Nature balancing things out. No reasonable person roots for the destruction weather can cause, but it happens and its beyond our control.

        As far as your comment about overpopulation of deer in the U.P….I sure haven’t seen it. There may be other factors besides the weather impacting that, but numbers have been down in area I hunt (Delta Co/Marquette Co line). I sure wish I’d see some bigger bucks!

        1. Barb says:

          I haven’t seen much wildlife in general in northern Michigan in the last few years near my summer home. I hope there’s some that survived this winter.

    4. Barb says:

      I couldn’t have said it better. Some bee keepers have said that 90% of their bee colonies have not survived. So, folks, knock off the cold weather talk. You’re being selfish!

  34. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    00Z NAM is back to “normal” in keeping the significant snow south of I-94. My guess is it will be more toward the border and perhaps clip SE Michigan.

    1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      Is this the 00Z NAM’s snowfall forecast or did I grab the wrong one: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Which would be perfect because that’s pretty much what the original forecast said days ago.

  35. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    Ya cause what we say on the net really makes a difference!! Lol

    1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

      @ reply to Barb.

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      I’ve said the same thing before too. No matter what we think, want, or hope for, will have no effect on what will actually happen. No need to go off on people who have been enjoying their wintrer weather activities they enjoy all winter long because you think they caused the weather. It’s out of our control. No one here is wishing for death.

  36. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    For what it’s worth… The DGEX (though I’m pretty sure that’s a different system) : http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

  37. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Lol…some of you “warm weather HAS to come” because “you are evil if you like snow” people are humorous. Really? This winter is holding on. Deal with it. What is the point of being all miserable towards those who are trying to enjoy the last grasp of winter. What’s next? Are you going to intentionally go tell a little kid Santa Claus is dead to make yourself feel better?

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I have reached my warm weather stage, I hope I am not evil, :/ I like the snow too but I am ready for the warmer weather.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Not at all, John. You have handled your desire for warmth in a respectful, calm manner. You don’t hiss at those who are still enjoying winter threats. I find you to be one of the most polite people on here.

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Thank you! :)

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Yup, so true Matt. Even in the summer when I’ve had it, I do complain, but never am bitter toward people about it. They didn’t cause it.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        I’ve figured the best way to deal with it is joke around with my friends. I have a couple of friends on Facebook who HATE winter, so we joke around about it. They post pictures about “stop praying for snow” and “Spring Countdowns” in the winter….and during the summer I post pictures of my home under feet of snow, reminding them that IT is coming. We have fun bantering back and forth about the weather.

        I would hope it could be like that on here…but rather it is more of this hostile anger towards others for what they enjoy.

        1. Wswplz says:

          The thing I don’t understand is the person who started this conversation earlier, Kevin W. is the same person that was wishing for flooding so he could take pictures of it down by the ball park and compare our potential floods to that of last years. Of course people can say whatever they want but that’s just slightly on the hypocritical side of things, when he states that anyone who wants cold and snow is sick or disagrees with him needs to seek help. hmmm…

        2. Wswplz says:

          * the funny thing is I sometimes enjoyed reading some of his posts on weather patterns, doom and gloom not as much.

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I like your second paragraph, Matt. Be sure that INDYY and Rocky read it

        4. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Thanks! I hope your buddies that you “+1″ to read it as well!

        5. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I’ve +1ed you before.

        6. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          +1 :P

  38. Sandy (Hudsonville) says:

    No matter what we all say or like about the weather we have no control. We might as well accept each day that we have. We all love the perfect weather day but that is different to each of us. No one likes it when the weather causes tragedy. Tomorrow is Monday have a great one!

  39. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We just got back from our weekend snowmobile trip up north. We snowmobiled from Mancelona to the bridge, then we snowmobiled over the ice to Mackinac Island which is very cool to see during the winter. We then snowmobiled in the eastern U.P. before coming back to Mancelona. Saturday was mostly sunny and around 30°. It was 5° at our hotel in St. Ignance this morning, our snowmobiles were very frosty and tough to start up. Today was around 30° and cloudy, and it felt much colder than yesterday. There will be plenty of good snowmobiling left up there well into April for the 2nd year in a row. Our dirt road and driveway are both very icy with no melting today.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Also, all the locals up there said they have been down in business this winter due to the extent of the cold/s ow in southern Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. They told us that this weekend has been their busiest weekend of the winter.

  40. Wswplz says:

    The snow belt has just been out of reach most of the year as they slide by to our south, as this one looks to be doing the same but did kick up a little dust for a bit as those further south and east will be a direct hit.

    1. Wswplz says:

      Going to be a solid snow maker Tuesday and Wednesday as it pushes through Indiana , Ohio and then further through Pennsylvania , eastern New York and finally western N.E. I’m sure many in those areas will see 4-8″ and a smaller 8-12″ around Cleveland to Buffalo and slightly below. To bad it didn’t creep north another 150 – 180 miles or so but o think people along the border could still seem a solid 4″ and possible some freezing rain before switching to snow throughout the system.

  41. Wswplz says:

    I think we will see a mostly dry pattern for a while, and the time period which looks to start getting a bit interesting is beyond the 15th of this month. I think around that time period we should have something in our sights for late that weekend or early the following week, something to keep in the back of your head at least.

    1. Wswplz says:

      * quick side note after we see this cold air dip down maybe twice this month, the last week looks to be quite nice, with maybe a thunderstorm to start off the season. We shall see…

      1. Wswplz says:

        Looking at some of the wind fields for Wednesday look fairly impressive, especially southern lower…

  42. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    I just enjoy the weather and ALL types of weather! I think there is nothing wrong eith wishing for events to happen, snow storms, etc! I don’t think anybody wishes hardship or tragedy on anybody or any living thing because of the weather. This is a great place to come to because so many will come on here to post what they think will happen! Sometimes they are right. The blog has always been very informing, entertaining and fun to read! Sorry you feel that way kevin w!

  43. Looks like any significant snows will be confined to mainly far southern and southeast lower where several inches could fall. We still need to watch the next couple of runs but after a movement to the north on the Sunday morning runs of the GFS and ECMWF they all have shifted slightly south and didn’t maintain the north trend and that good news for us wanting spring. Not that it’s going to be spring like over the next couple of weeks. Today sure is going to be nice tho !

  44. Paul m says:

    No snow for west michigan who knew!
    By next weekend all snow will be gone!

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