Winter Storm Warning/Advisory

March 10th, 2014 at 5:56 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Advisory 5  3 am – Meso discussion for 1-2″ an hour snowfall rates for SW Michigan, NW Indiana and NE Illinois.      Heavier snow south of a line from Holland to Saginaw.  Roads will get very icy as temperatures fall below freezing for the morning commute and stay below freezing during the day.   The Winter Weather Advisory was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for Calhoun and Jackson Counties.   It’s  a Winter Storm Warning for Northern Indiana and the Michigan Counties that border Indiana.   The Advisory has also been extended north to include Allegan, Barry, Kent, Ionia and Clinton Counties.    Check out the dust storm approaching Lubbock, Texas at sunset this evening.   Big barn fire north of Delton Tues. evening.

High temps. Monday:  48 G.R., Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, 47 Holland and 42 in Muskegon.  G.R. dropped 3″ of snow cover from 9 am to 5 pm with the depth down to 13″.  I had off Monday…I’m working next Sat. and Sun. and the following Sun.  Actually, today (Tue.) I start a stretch of working 11 days in a row (and 17 out of 18 unless I can squeeze in a comp. or vacation day somewhere).  I went to a funeral Monday and they to see the butterflies at the Meijer Gardens.  I picked up the dry cleaning and then back home to enjoy homemade soup, a grilled-cheese sandwich and a cut up orange.  The sun has been nice.  There’s a lot of dirty snow by the side of the roads and some gigantic water-filled potholes.

Monday was the 3rd anniversary of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan.  On 10 February 2014, a Japanese National Police Agency report confirmed 15,884 deaths,6,148 injured and 2,633 people missing across twenty prefectures, as well as 127,290 buildings totally collapsed, with a further 272,788 buildings ‘half collapsed’, and another 747,989 buildings partially damaged.  4.4 million customers had no electricity and 1.5 million had no fresh water after the quake.

The temperature reached 80° in St. Louis on Monday.  Despite that, the average temperature in St. Louis for March 1-10 was 7.4° colder than average in St. Louis.  The 48° reading in G.R. was the warmest since the first week of December.  It was only 6° warmer than the average high of 42°.    Heavy snow has fallen in AfghanistanChairlift heavy damaged by an avalanche at Crystal Mt. Ski Area in Washington St.   Here’s an interesting picture of the ice on Lake Michigan east of Chicago.  Great pic. here showing the ice on central and southern Lake Michigan.  Interesting pic. of a storm in IdahoCalifornia needs more rain.   How’s this for a sunset picture!   Flooding in Bolivia.   Meteorologist behind the Saffir-Simpson Scale (hurricane ranking) is 101 years old!   Nice warm shot sends temps. into the 60s to low 70s across France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany.

814 Responses to “Winter Storm Warning/Advisory”

  1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Is that a severe thunderstorm heading towards Chicago right now?

    1. Wswplz says:

      That’s funny you took the words almost out of my mouth, wow…..I was just looking at that on radar, as that is some heavy pecip over Joliet area, imagine if that were snow or not, good convective storm period.

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Its not showing any lightening, but there could be a good amount of thunder snow. My sister and brother in law live in rogers park on Lake Michigan, north of the city, I’d ask them, but they are in bed by now.

      2. Wswplz says:

        There is quite a bit lighting further south and east where there is better surface heating…..I’m sure it’s raining cats and dogs though, and possible some thunder as well. I’m sure the winds are intersecting in that area quite heavily.

        1. Wswplz says:

          * south / west rather..

    2. Cort S. says:

      No severe thunderstorm warning or significant weather advisory from that. There’s likely not enough instability to produce deep, vertical convection. Joliet is reporting 35 degrees with rain. I think it’s showing up red on radar through a combination of already heavy precip and some “bright banding” from melting/water-coated snow just above the surface. Melting snow returns a stronger radar echo than dry snow or rain.

      1. Cort S. says:

        …though if bright banding is involved, then the rainfall at the ground is actually more moderate and not heavy.

        1. Wswplz says:

          How can you identify the differences Cort, aside from the reports, as it’s hard for me to always tell, except sometimes I notice the dynamics don’t support it.

        2. Cort S. says:

          Radar bright banding usually shows up as a ring because the melting level is usually higher off the ground than what it is above Joliet right now. Here is what it usually looks like:

          http://wx5fwd.org/node/148

          Remember, the radar beam gets higher off the ground the farther out it travels. The yellow ring is the level of the atmosphere where the beam traveled through the layer of melting snow. Inside the ring is the radar beam hitting rain; outside the ring is the radar beam hitting snow.

        3. Wswplz says:

          I have seen that many times, as it looks like a hallo but wasn’t sure exactly what I was actually viewing other than false signals..

        4. Wswplz says:

          Where did you study Cort? I hope you don’t mind me asking?

        5. Wswplz says:

          Really interesting to pick up bits off knowledge from ya. I know very little about our wonderful atmosphere but I due find it fascinating !

        6. Cort S. says:

          Without looking at what’s reported at the ground, you can make a reasonable deduction if you consider all the other information available.

          What’s your vertical temperature profile? At what heights is it 32 degrees or warmer? Is there instability aloft to support convection?

          Loop the radar and observe the behavior of the bright area(s). Does it move or stay near same range distance from the radar?. Look at higher tilts to see if you get a similar though compressed pattern, or is there a core of high reflectivity at higher elevation than your expected melting level? The latter may imply hail or graupel.

          If there is absolutely no lightning, that helps you feel more confident about a lack of significant convection.

          Also, now you have additional radar information from Dual-Polarization. Differential Reflectivity, Correlation Coefficient, Specific Differential Phase… these can prove more information about the horizontal/spherical/vertical shape of your precipitation and their uniformity within a radar pulse volume.

        7. Cort S. says:

          *provide.

          Dual-pol radar products have a pretty steep learning curve, but it’s very useful information once you know how to interpret it.

          http://addins.waow.com/blogs/weather/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/LSE-dual-pol-example-300×281.png

          (I did my thesis on dual-pol radar and thunderstorms over Kennedy Space Center.)

          Glad you enjoy learning from me. I got my B.S. from Central Michigan a few years ago and my M.S. from Plymouth State just recently.

        8. Wswplz says:

          I’m again reminded when reading basic examples such as the one you just gave to how little I know. So many different categories and sub cat within all these different pieces which go into not only the conditions in the atmosphere but also the many cool devices which analyze the data. Then once that’s done you have to try and make some real life quantitative sense/ delineation to it all, given it’s imperfect nature…lol

        9. Wswplz says:

          Congrats on those achievements, that’s awesome! I’ve actually been reading your posts since last spring and part of the reason I would check the blog is to gather information on the storms in our area from your posts. You have a knack for it that’s for sure, and I appreciate the time you take to post the information as you can tell your passionate about your craft.

        10. Wswplz says:

          If I recall you went out with a group last summer cloud seeding, at least I think that was you.

        11. Cort S. says:

          That was me. Spent the summer in western North Dakota. I might go back there this summer. I sure do love a good thunderstorm.

        12. Wswplz says:

          Just added that to my reading list, as it looks like it’s not a quick read.

        13. Wswplz says:

          I can’t think of many weather phenomena I like much more than a good mid west thunderstorm. I tried to track down a few tornadoes this year during that first PDS / high risk event we had centered over the bottom of Lake Michigan/ Chicago area. I was down by the border 50. -100 miles in Indiana/ Illinois and Iowa…..and got a big goose egg lol

        14. Cort S. says:

          Too bad you didn’t see a tornado in November. Things really got a bit disorganized the farther northeast they went. Then again, perhaps its good that you didn’t see a tornado that day, as it could have been rain-wrapped and traveling at 60+ mph.

          If you want to learn about dual-pol radar, I recommend this site:

          http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/outreach/

          And for cloud seeding, here’s a good pamphlet:

          http://www.swc.state.nd.us/4dlink9/4dcgi/GetSubContentPDF/PB-395/SummerCloudModifBrochure.pdf

        15. Wswplz says:

          Looks like there might be some favorable weather out east tom for some low topped convection. Probably some fast movers as well forming into a QSLI…maybe a few spin ups…

        16. Wswplz says:

          No I didn’t go chasing that time as they were moving to fast, maybe it was just a moderate risk day but I think they upgraded it later. I forget what month, I think June maybe..like around the 12th. I shouldn’t have said PDS as that is kinda the term of late PDO…LOL

        17. Wswplz says:

          Added both to my list…thanks

        18. Cort S. says:

          Ah yes, June 12… the derecho day.

          http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130612

          Funny how the only high risks of 2013 were centered on Illinois/Indiana.

        19. Cort S. says:

          PDS would be correct for June 12… a rare PDS severe thunderstorm watch.

          http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2013/ww0300.html

        20. Wswplz says:

          Hey that was not bad for memory as I’m usually bad with dates, I guess I need to relate things to weather from here on out….haha. Yes that was a really cool event, best storms I have seen down around 1-80 area wow really cool. There was wave after wave of storms exploding below the lake around Gary Indiana and moving almost along 1-80….I found a spot where they seemed to be coming out of a storm cell factory over an over again ….I left at 8:00 am and came home at 5:00am…haha

        21. Wswplz says:

          You know how to find this data quickly as it would take me much longer. But if there is animation of this event, you will see cell after cell generate almost directly under the lake maybe a little west and 50 miles to 75 miles south and then moving almost due east. Really great show..

        22. Wswplz says:

          I was trying to explain that to a friend how rare this high risk events are,( in our back yard) but he wouldn’t go chase with me , so I went by myself, which was fine but more difficult to navigate and drive. Then rain was bad as well!! But so fun non the less

        23. Wswplz says:

          Always great chatting with ya Cort….Thanks for all the great links, have some reading to do… Catch up with ya soon. Take it easy or s.l.o

        24. Wswplz says:

          Meant to type SLC…i was thinking of San Luis Obispo…..lol

        25. Wswplz says:

          You have to show me how you find this stuff, if I can’t figure it out…haha can’t believe you found it, how cool is that!! Darn I think I’m going to catch some zzzzz, then I look at my worst enemy..the radar !!

      2. Wswplz says:

        I thought that might be the case, but I don’t know enough to be able to know for sure. I’m sure one could get some later in Ohio and Indiana north of the cold front, coupled with heavy cloud shear, poss some hail too….maybe some strong outflow gusts south of the cold front as well reaching almost svr limits…idk. ?

  2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Thunder snow for our area would give us something to really talk about. I am sure, within a couple of weeks we will be tracking thunder storms. The weather channel has Hastings getting snow about 2am. Within the last hour I can feel that the temp has fallen, I will have to turn the heat up before going to bed.

  3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Very light mix here with a temp of 35°. Hoping for at least 3″ to give me a couple days of what would be really good snowmobiling conditions.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      All snow now.

    2. Ryan (Rockford) says:

      Some very light snow flurries/snow showers with a temperature at 33 degrees. Maybe it’s just me, but does anyone seem to think that large band of dark blue is heading right for Grand Rapids? The leading edge is as far north as Allegan (near you Travis) and appears to be heading NE, maybe a touch closer to N-NE than just NE. The 12z NAM did push the snow cutoff probably 30 miles or so north of the previous run; that could make a big difference for greater Grand Rapids.

      1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

        Nah, looks light to me. Guess it depends on who’s radar you use. I’ve used Intellicast’s for decades now. It seems to be the most accurate with the correct colors. (Some show moderate rain as ‘heavy’ etc.. This one does not).

        If you’re using something else, try them:
        http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USMI0127

      2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        It looks like it could clip SE Kent County, but stay SE of Grand Rapids. Pretty decent snowfall rates here right now. Everything has turned white with a fresh coating already. Yup, my area went from 3-5″ on the 18Z to 6-8″ on the 00Z for the NAM.

        1. Wswplz says:

          You lucky dog, I’m going to be left high and dry in the Rockford area….boo

        2. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          I don’t know Travis…the heaviest band (the one that stretches all the way back thru north-central Illinois) is centered smack-dab over Chicago, and if you draw a straight line in the direction it’s been heading for the last few hours, it winds up further north than the recent models. Not by much…maybe another 30 miles, but at least enough for me to get somewhat excited, as I’m near 12 Mile in Rockford and it’ll be a very close cutoff. TomKap, thanks for the link. I’m using the term “heavy” loosely to mean the “heaviest” of whatever is showing up on radar. “Moderate” snow is probably a better choice of terms.

        3. Wswplz says:

          It looks like it’s trying to fill in a bit on the back side, so I think we will see some but not much. I think the way the WWA and WSW is aligned almost nails where the snow looks to be heading. Chalk up another to the NWS…! Travis you should be in a good spot, and just below you as well. I’m jealous, i wanted to test out my snow blower that my friend finally gave back to me, nice friend now that the season is almost over..haha

        4. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          It’s not looking too promising for you guys up there. I at least have a little more hope, but I think I will be on the edge for most of the event.

        5. Ryan (Rockford) says:

          Gotta give credit where credit is due….I think the NWS is going to wind up right on target as far as there they cut the WWA’s off.

          Also, looks like there is some sinking in the last few frames, but it still looks slightly north, maybe 15 miles instead of 30. My deck has a light dusting and it is coming down light to moderate-ish, temperature finally down to 32!

  4. Ryan (Rockford) says:

    Wswplz, take a look at the radar….we will definitely get some accumulating snow as it looks now. Allegan County should be getting quite a bit more overnight though.

    1. Wswplz says:

      It’s hard to tell Ryan because I can’t tell how far it will sink along with that cold air. But you may be correct, as I will see when I wake up tomorrow. That is a pretty big slug, and it even has that same dolphin like shape that was on some of there animation models, unreal…. We should get an 1.5 though, if not a little more.

    2. Wswplz says:

      Hopefully we get some snow in our area Ryan!

  5. Jacob G. says:

    The 00Z GEM and Euro tonight gave us more eye candy for another snow storm next week, waiting on the GFS to join the party. Hey at least we have some stuff to watch out for. March is a wild month that is for sure and only month that can have 100 degree swings.

  6. tinainvbcounty says:

    Moderate snow, up to 1/2″-3/4″ on the ground. Very little wind.

    1. TomKap (Michigan St. & Fuller) Grand Rapids says:

      Fairly windy here.

  7. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Snow has picked up here! I would estimate that there is about an inch on the ground. Winds are blowing pretty well and working to move the snow sideways at times. I’d say its about 34 degrees .

  8. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Another snow day = no work for me. I think we’ll go bowling today.

  9. 1.3 inches as of 5:30 should end with at least 2 inches. needed 1.8 to go into 3rd place for snowiest winter here. now only just over 6 inches from snowiest winter.

  10. 1.3 inches as of 5:30 should end with at least 2 inches. needed 1.8 to go into 3rd place for snowiest winter here. now only just over 6 inches from snowiest winter. Early next weeks storm could be a defining one as to our spring. someone could get over a foot of snow from that one or a bunch of rain.

  11. 1.3 inches as of 5:30 should end with at least 2 inches. needed 1.8 to go into 3rd place for snowiest winter here. now only just over 6 inches from snowiest winter. Early next weeks storm could be a defining one as to our spring. someone could get over a foot of snow from that one or a bunch of rain. Busy pattern ahead

  12. Paul S. says:

    I wish you weather gurus would stop fighting over WHO amongst you get to say we broke another record. YOU are the ones that paint the blue over Lake Michigan on YOUR screens, and YOU are the ones that make the snow happen.
    It’s spring – start painting pretty flowers over Lake Michigan [forget tulips]!

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      If it spring, then why we just get 2+ inches of snow here and the potential for more early next week? Check the calendar bud, it still says winter for atleast 8 more days.

      I wish you weather gurus would stop fighting over who thinks its spring.

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