Breezy and Warmer Today

March 14th, 2014 at 4:29 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

high temps  48° at noon in G.R. – cooler at Lake Michigan, just 38° on the beach at Muskegon.  We had a gust to 46 mph at the Regional Airport in Holland last hour.  Click on the map to enlarge.   These are high temps. from Thursday.  It’s kind of strange that Bismarck ND makes 62 before we can get to 50.  It was 69 at Chamberlain SD.  That was warmer than most of Texas.  The 64 at Des Moines was 27 degrees warmer than they were on Weds.  We’re getting the air that was over Missouri yesterday.  With bare ground we could have made 60 today, but the snow and ice will knock 10-15 degrees off of that.  We could reach 50 briefly in G.R.  It was 52 in Grand Rapids, Minnesota yesterday and they have a lot of snow on the ground.   We have a shot at a light shower or sprinkle towards evening as  a cool front comes thru.  The models are printing out a trace to .05″, so not much.  Later Fri. night into Sat. AM we could see a few flurries.  Most of the weekend will be cool and dry.  Temperatures could be as low as the single figures Sun. and Mon. mornings and we may hold only in the 20s Sunday PM.  The models bring up a storm Tues. night into Weds.  The GFS plot gives us 0.76″ of mostly rain (1-2″ snow at the end), but the European model has only 0.12″.  Lets go with (and hope for) the lower totals.  We need an overall dry pattern so the snow melts off gradually and without a lot of rain to cause flooding.  Regardless of precipitation, we need to watch as ice breaks up on the rivers.   People have asked if the piles of snow will still be here in April.  They’ll be greatly reduced, but it’s going to be hard to melt thru 2-story snow piles in 2 1/2 weeks.  Another question is does the cold winter mean an unusually hot summer.  The answer is no…that did happen in 1936, but the norm is that cold winters are followed by average summers – maybe a degree cooler than average.  Severe weather?  Last year we had low numbers of severe storms and tornadoes.  Partly that was because it was pretty cold for much of the early spring.  We’re starting out that way again…with an overall quiet Jan. – March….but I think we kick things into gear in April.  We’ll get our chances here, but the better bet for severe storms will be across IL – IN – OH to our south.   Back to the high temp. map.  It was warmer in Grand Island NE than it was in Tampa and Orlando.  It was another 60-degree day for Portland OR and Salt Lake City…but very cold with highs in the teens across most of New England and New York.

Also…a record weekly draw for March of natural gas -  195 BCF!   Dec., Jan., Feb., now March all had a weekly record.  It was the 10th coldest winter ever in Michigan and a top-ten coldest winter in Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri.  It was a top ten warmest winter for California, Arizona and Alaska.  No severe weather reports in the U.S. on Thursday – it’s been too cold for severe weather on more days than not.

113 Responses to “Breezy and Warmer Today”

  1. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Does it get to 50 degrees? I don’t think we quite get there. Cooler and then a mix of snow and rain! How about one more snow storm? It could happen!

    1. Florida1993 says:

      How bout no!

  2. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    06Z GFS trending colder with the storm for next week. Now shows a snowstorm north of I-96.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      For those of us who are sick of shoveling snow and live south of I-96…. this is good news ;-)

    2. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      Is there still a chance of an ice storm south of there?

  3. Jen in Middleville says:

    Thanks for your input on all that information Bill!

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Today will be my 5th day out of the last 8 with a warmer than average high temperature. It’s been a nice stretch. Go Blue!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Grand Rapids last 7 days, -4.2* departure from normal.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        March 7th to March 11th: +5 degrees departure from normal for me

  5. Millekat says:

    Could use a good couple of warm-ish days… Previous owners of my new house = lazy and I have at least 3 inches of solid ice on my driveway!! And no more snow please!!!!

  6. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Matt the latest GFS run looks better for our area with next weeks storm if you want snow, it’s giving the Muskegon area up to 6″ of snow.

    1. Paul m says:

      Look to be all rain for West Michigan .
      M20 to the north all snow

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Too early to put any official bets on it yet Paul, it’s going to be one of those storms that we have to wait last minute for just like this past one.

      2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        It’s showing 6 inches plus for the Muskegon area next week.

  7. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    The sun just came out here. With clear skies the temp here is now at a cold 27° But with warmer air off to our west tomorrow will be a warmer day then today was and upper 40’s or could be in store for us. Then it looks to turn cold again for the weekend and then warm up with rain? Next week. What will the track of that storm be next week? At this time it looks to go to the west of us and that is what we will go with at this time. With the up and down pattern that we should be in that will continue to melt down the snow pack. In town there is now more and more bare ground showing up. And it sure looks like the grass/weeds this year are very much on the brown side. It will take several warm rains before we see a good green up.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Wow your colder than me right now, currently 37 here!

  8. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Here is one good game that both snow lovers and warm weather lovers can play together and that is guess when the last snow pile will be gone! Lest say find a big pile at a local parking lot and guess what day the last of the pile will be gone!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’ve already gone on record as saying June 9th…. based on snowpiles around us, which are mountainous (the place across the street has a pyramid that’s 30 x 30 and 10′ high). Granted, my date is partly tongue-in-cheek: my attitude is that if the snow is gone before that – I’m wrong but I’m still happy :-)

      1. SS (Pwell Area) says:

        Deb I wonder if some of my hostas will see the light of day (north side of house with huge pile from roof on top of them!)

        Just as we took pix of the pile growing will have to take them of it shrinking!!! LOL!!!

    2. suehelen says:

      I’m betting on the second week of May.

  9. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Bill, is it true our greatest threat here in west Michigan are the DERECHE type storms, and not tornadoes? I am sure we will have our fare share of tornado watches/warnings this spring/summer. It will be nice to see it get near 50 degrees today. Summer will be here before you know it.

    1. Wswplz says:

      It’s derecho..which is Spanish for straight….as in long lived straight line winds: More frequent in Michigan, but still not a common. Did have a small one last year. 1998 was a large long lived derecho. A couple off examples, quite a few more however.

    2. Wswplz says:

      Here’s a small map showing approx frequency.

  10. Linear Comet to arrive around this May 24th. I hope we have clear weather for viewing of a once in a lifetime meteor showers,i don’t know about this one, even fire balls, some are calling we could even have a meteor storm as Earth passes directly through Comet Linears debris tail. Please weather, no clouds!

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I just told my wife about the Linear Comet, and we will be making plans to be camping out in Yankee Springs that weekend. My wife’s family has a private camping area. It is the best place to watch a meteor storm, no city lights,etc. Thank-you for posting this info.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I’ll be out on the lake watching :-) Yes, we are blessed with minimal light pollution!

  11. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    They are showing Texas and gulf coast areas getting severe storms this weekend. Also, looks like Washington DC and New York City will be hit with another snow storm late sunday/Monday. I am sure within 30 days we will have our first big thunderstorm

  12. SC (Marshall) says:

    >It’s kind of strange that Bismarck ND makes 62 before we can get to 50.

    Not so surprising if we look at the current jetstream map.
    It’s kind of strange that Bismarck ND makes 62 before we can get to 50.

    Balmy winds and moderate temps (32 degrees) in Marshall at 7:30am this morning.

    We’ve had colorful sunrises and sunsets.

    1. SC (Marshall) says:

      >Another question is does the cold winter mean an unusually hot summer. The answer is no…that did happen in 1936, but the norm is that cold winters are followed by average summers – maybe a degree cooler than average.

      The unusually hot weather of the Dust Bowl era is attributable to an overwhelming dust cloud during a period of reduced industrial pollution (lower sulfates) during the Depression.

      We saw similar patterns during the early 50s drought in the US and Canada, although the dust problem was reduced due to improved agricultural practices to reduce wind erosion of dry soils.

      1. Cali1005 says:

        So that means temps will be in the 70s and low 80s for the most part. Perfect weather for me :)

        1. Brenda (Otsego) says:

          Me too!

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Me too! highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s are perfect for me in the summer.

  13. Dikehopper says:

    I found the linked video by and comments about John Coleman in Bill’s previous post (“Great Lakes Water Levels”) most interesting. (They are found in the Comments section.)

    So a hat tip to Becka Freeland.

  14. Long range shows heavy rain March 23

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      lol…you don’t think it’s going to change before then?

      1. Did I say it wasn’t going to?

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Then why post it? It will be different at 12Z.

      2. Did I say it wasn’t going to?

      3. SW Kent says:

        Matt. Kyle is a student. No reason to be a jerk to him. Cmon

        1. suehelen says:

          Thank you.

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      That’s the day WXYZ is forecasting 55 degrees.

      1. It shows 42 here March 23

    3. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Kyle don’t wish rain please, we want a slow gradual melt to the snow rather than a flash flood! Please don’t make it happen ;)

    4. Cali1005 says:

      Oh boy let’s hope not. There’s still going to be alot of snow on the ground and if we do get a heavy rain it will just cause flooding.

      1. Just throwing it out there just as a possibility. Can’t we do that one here anymore? and I never even said I wanted it. Ill stop posting it if its a problem

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          It’s not a problem if you put it on here, not at all you can post what ever you want just don’t wish it or we may be cursed lol, jk!

        2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Only a few people on here are allowed to post things that might happen that far in advance and not catch flack for it. Also you can only post if it shows cold and snow.

        3. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Haha…Apparently you didn’t read my post below?

        4. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Me Matt or Rodey?

  15. Cali1005 says:

    As long as all the snow is gone by Easter I will be happy :)

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Easter is late this year, so that gives me more than another month for snow! lol

      1. Cali1005 says:

        What I mean is all the big snow piles are gone, I think the main snowcover will be gone by then. We’ve melted a foot of snow here in GR in the last month even though it hasn’t been very warm and we have not had any significant rain events.

  16. ArcherBull14 says:

    There is a big pile of snow on the edge of the parking lot at my place of work. We have a competition going to see who can guess the day that it will be 100% gone. There is a gift card for the winner. I guessed April 4… sounds like I don’t have much of a chance now! ;)

  17. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I agree that Mark in E. Lansing is right. Lots of hypocrites on here. Spend all this time yelling at Rocky and INDY for being trolls, but then do the same thing with warm weather. “It’s going to flood” and “LOTS of rain coming” and “all the snow is going to melt”. bahaha

    Just because they do it doesn’t mean you need to do it. Although it does help me to realize how annoying it is when Rocky and INDY do it too.

    1. Cali1005 says:

      Of course the snow is going to melt we may have had a brutal winter but we don’t live in Antarctica.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        :) People have been proclaiming it was going to melt weeks ago, just like we were supposed to have blizzards weeks ago.

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          I don’t think anyone on here predicted a complete melting by now.

        2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          Yes, many have. They predicted it a couple of weeks ago. It was going to warm up sooooooo much. I am not going to say names, because I don’t want to get that started up with them.

        3. Nate says:

          But they don’t post 50x about it either.. Nothing wrong with predictions as long as you don’t spam the blog with them.

  18. on the Grand says:

    Does not look or feel like a nice day. Wanted to do a bit of clean up but it is just to windy the wind is very cold and it is howling. I guess another day of no melting and where is the sun. The river has iced over where it was open water.

    1. Cali1005 says:

      The winds are from the south, that’s why we have this “warm” air, so there is going to be some snowmelt despite the wind and limited sunshine.

  19. on the Grand says:

    You know, I am just just fed up. The place is either muddy and wet or icy and drab. When the sun is out, rarely, its feels great but most of the time it is depressing. I want to open the windows but instead have to close the drapes(drafty). I love winter, when there is a fresh few inches of white snow and it is a brick sunny day but those are far between. Maybe I have been spoiled with the early weather in the past few years but after 4 plus months I am ready for spring, the smells of spring, the little critters running around the flower and the greenery. I have worn out my snow pants and boots. I kick that snow blower every time I go by it. The other day I wiped down the lawn mover and said, someday soon. I just want a clam spring no surprises cause I am just worn out. I want to be able to sit outside and have a nice cup of tea. I live here because of the 4 seasons, each very exciting and wonderful in their self. So now I am going back to bed and tell me when it is Spring. I know I am whining but come on folks I think everyone is feeling the same way.

    1. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

      I have to agree with you!! Ready for Spring here too! Can’t wait for the day when I can sit on the porch with ice tea & enjoy the sounds of outside.

    2. SC (Marshall) says:

      No, some of us are really rather worried about present weather conditions and what may happen if we have warm days and cool nights: pollution-capping inversions.

      Paris is under a smog emergency.

      Paris Offers Free Public Transport to Reduce Severe Smog

      BBC March 14, 2014

      The Eiffel Tower and other landmark buildings in Paris have disappeared in a milky fog. Authorities in Paris have taken the rare step of making public transport free for three days to reduce severe smog caused by unusually warm weather. The French capital region and 30 other departments have been on maximum pollution alert for several days.

      The capital’s air quality has been one of the worst on record, French environmental agencies say. (Worse than the mid 1970s-1982!)

      A lack of wind, combined with cold nights followed by unseasonably warm days, has contributed to the worsening conditions.

      This would be unheard of in previous years, even with inversions because of the significant improvements in region in the past 20 years.

  20. GunLakeDeb says:

    It smells like “Spring” here at work – ugh. Last night a skunk got into a battle with a car and lost – but he put up a valiant fight….. my entire building reeks of skunk.

    The longer daylight has critters stirring – but the deep snow (I still have a good foot-and-a-half on the ground here) is going to make finding food difficult for them….

    Praying the forecast of heavy rain on the 23rd changes – we still have too much water trapped in our snow.

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      It was just one model run.

      I had a possum walking right along my house the other day. I was banging windows and it just completely ignored me. I got a real good look at it as it walked right along my basement window. Not the most attractive animals…

  21. on the Grand says:

    A gentle rain would be nice. It cleans the place up and washes the dirt away, but everything seems to be in extremes now. Just wash me into the river and be done with it.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I want heavy rains, nothing gentle.haha

    2. Dikehopper says:

      “Just wash me into the river and be done with it.”

      Made me think of a song: “Take me to the river, drop me in the water”

  22. I hope we get some decent sunshine and warmth today. I will be spending the rest of the afternoon in the Norton Shores/Muskegon area going out to eat and doing some shopping with the family. Maybe I can leave the coat behind if it feels good enough!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      You must have today off from school? Enjoy the day! It’s currently 39 here.

  23. michael g (SE GR) says:

    First 13 days of spring have been so cold, the last 79 days of the season will have to average 1.75* above normal just to get us back to even!

  24. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Good day for my first 10+ mile outdoor run this year. Finally have some clear pavement.

  25. Todd In Nunica says:

    Its the same moisture, if you “wish” for a blizzard, or a rain storm, this late in the season when its way more likely to get a rapid thaw, anyone wishing for no flooding should be wishing for dry weather. just my 2 cents.

    1. suehelen says:


  26. Aaron DeWitt says:

    Anyone see the crazy looking airplane trails this morning? Looked really strange that they were all lined up like that. Where they clouds or contrails from airplanes?

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Those are jet contrails – short for condensation trails. Water vapor is a product of combustion and you often see a “trail” for a time as the jet passes by. The jets are following a similar path.

  27. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    42 degrees and partly sunny here at 1130am. Looks like the clouds will be thinning out this afternoon.

    48 in South Haven already. 50 in St. Joe.

  28. Jim says:

    51 degrees just before noon here in NW GR. Enjoying the heat wave, but laughing that it is still 30 degrees cooler than it was 2 years ago March 14.

    1. Florida1993 says:

      Yeah and then we got a snowstorm sometime later

  29. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Not to get off topic, but there were two loud explosion sounds some distance south of Marshall. Shortly after, an ambulance was heading in that direction. The sheriffs dept. has had many reports but will not state what is going on.

    1. Todd In Nunica says:

      Does not sound good, I fired up the scanner radio app on my phone and they are talking of stretchers and extracation bags. Also asking someone to contact Carrs excavation and seeing if they could bring a backhoe to the location….

    2. Kevin (Marshall) says:

      Found out a pole barn blew up near Lyon lake. Nobody was hurt.

        1. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

          Sorry about posting a FOX link, Bill! If anyone has a WOOD TV link, feel free to post! :)

        2. Wswplz says:

          I like how they use a stock photo with the fire engines and it’s at night, when this took place around 11:30am that’s why we watch wood tv ….hehe

  30. John (Norton Shores) says:

    12Z GFS is farther north on next weeks storm, it now only shows the northern portion of the CWA getting hit.

    1. Todd In Nunica says:

      Like a fish out of water….or a politician…flip flop……

      I often wonder….we can “teach” or I guess let the computer “learn” to play chess……by imputing billions of combinations as well as what will happen at each move… these weather computers “learn” from storms they predict wrong, meaning if a computer predict a certain path, precip……… then does what actually happen go back to that computer so it can better “learn” what it did wrong….I mean with thousands of weather systems being fed into a computer seems it could eventually get better. I know its way far out but the flip flopping will continue till its knocking on our door….

      1. Cort S. says:

        Computer models are programmed with thousands of physics equations which will reproduce the same answer if you feed it the exact same set of initial conditions. Humans are the ones who learn from forecasts that go wrong. Computers don’t know what they do wrong because they are fed a “fake” atmosphere, which approximates but doesn’t (and can never) truly represent the current conditions of the real one… then they just crunch numbers. Humans are the ones who are able to look at the real atmosphere vs. the modeled atmosphere, and spot {1} assimilation errors (initial conditions in the model may not be representative of the current state of the atmosphere) {2) biases that a model might have (e.g. track of low pressure system too far SE, North American surface temperatures too cool, etc.)… Then humans can try to fix these errors. Chaos Theory also describes how incredibly small changes in initial conditions can lead to huge discrepancies between forecasts far enough into the future. If you tweak the starting barometric pressure of one (just one!) station by 0.01″, you will get a completely different forecast one month into the future even if you are running the same model. The atmosphere is nearly infinitely more complex than chess.

        There is a forecasting technique out there called analogue forecasting. You look for atmospheric setups in the past that are very similar to what you currently have or expect to have soon, then you see what happened on those days in the past (e.g. Was there a tornado outbreak?). Computers can be used to help find suitable matches. It’s another useful tool in your toolbox, but there are limitations as with every other technique. The atmosphere will never give you the exact same result twice.

        1. Wswplz says:

          Have to make me look bad jeez Cort…hehe

        2. Cort S. says:

          Hey, at least we both used the word “infinite.” :)

        3. Wswplz says:

          That’s funny I laughed when I read that, and said hey at least I was on the same path, however completely dumbed down, so no comparison to Master Cort, just young weed hopper! Man you type fast, wow!!

        4. Wswplz says:

          Hey Cort, I read some information a while back, I think it was a power point presentation on models and tendencies / being able to recognize them through examples, what to look for etc… Do you have any reading materials you recommend from the Cort Library of weather.

        5. Cort S. says:

          Hmm, I would have to search for anything particularly good. You might be able to find something before I do, with a well-crafted Google search.

      2. Wswplz says:

        I’m sure many could answer better than I, but I do know there are complete sections / chapters dedicated to different models tendencies , anomalies to look for and such. I also know they do keep record of the data / runs of the different models, so how they upload that data back in again I’m not sure. I’m also not sure it could be like that of chess because there are infinite more possible weather combinations, but I would say the basic answer is yes they do get better over time, but they also study trends of each model, or strengths and weakness. I’ll see if I can find some of what I read in the past and post it for you.

        1. Wswplz says:

          Hahaha lol….just as I posted this there is someone better!!!

    2. Wswplz says:

      March 13, 2014 at 5:45 pm
      Seems like there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast for next week, and they mentioned they aren’t giving to much credit to the GFS at this time. Here is some of what they said in the WPC’s extended outlook:


      Todd this is a small example of them working through the models, which one they like , or don’t and so on. From yesterday

      1. Todd In Nunica says:

        thanks guys, yea just wondering guess we are a ways off from terminator type computers taking over the world….so I guess ill take a flip flopping computer model over computers taking over the world….lmao

  31. mr. negative says:

    2014? Snow remains, cold reigns.

  32. Wswplz says:

    Im sure some have already seen this day in Michigan History, but it shows what can happen:

    The Weather History for March 14th

    A snowstorm drops up to a foot of snow across Lower Michigan with record daily snowfall of 10.5 inches at Grand Rapids, 10 inches at Lansing and 8.0 inches at Muskegon. This snow would contribute to some of the worst floods on record in southwest Lower Michigan when it melts off during the last week of the month.

  33. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    There we go! 50 degrees here at 1pm… 51 already at GR airport.

    1. Florida1993 says:

      Now if only we could sustain it for a few days.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Do you have much of your snow from this week left?

  34. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Good sustained wins here with some good gusts.

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:


  35. Florida1993 says:

    First 50 degree reading of 2014, finally!!! Now that we’ve hit 50 hopefully a 60 degree reading comes sooner rather than later.

  36. John (Norton Shores) says:

    53 in GR and only 43 here, stupid SW flow wind keeps the lakeshore colder north of GH! Ugh lol! Our first 50 will come soon hopefully!

    1. Florida1993 says:

      You might not see your first 50 degree reading until April.

    2. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Hey John. I mentioned it a couple times in the past couple weeks that the lake would affect our temps. At least, for your sake, it’s above freezing. :)

  37. suehelen says:

    I see dirt and mud puddles in my driveway and several areas of brown grass. Come on spring!!

  38. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    The pattern this year is really something. In checking out the weather pattern, the jet stream and systems we kept getting in December and January have been pushed so far south, and they still are. Hence, why our weather has been pretty fair lately (I have actually been somewhat bored because we haven’t received much snow here since early February).

    Eventually, when the jet stream works its way back north I think we will get some more winter storms/events. Whenever that happens, nobody knows…because this pattern is really something. :) Unfortunately for snow lovers like me, that will be later in the Spring when the sun is really going to be doing its work…so I don’t know if it will be snow that accumulates very well..or a rain/snow mix.

    For the warmth lovers, I think we’ll get our first real mild days before this happens though. Most of the places seeing the winter storms are places that are having highs in the 50s/60s one day and then the snow storm the next. It’s a pattern very much like what they experience in the Rocky Mountain range/Denver, CO area. Warmth one day, snowstorm the next…repeat.

  39. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Wednesday’s snow is down to about 3″ now and very squishy. The old snow under it is still frozen solid. I peaked right around 50° around 1PM with some filtered sun. If this was any other year our snow would be gone or almost gone by now after a day like today. We’re going snowmobiling on the trails tomorrow in the Allegan Forrest where there is still a TON of snow. We are planning a day trip up north this week if they get that snowstorm.

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