Outside Chance of a T-Storm

March 18th, 2014 at 1:02 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

day1otlk_smThis is the General T-Storm Outlook for Weds.  from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC).  The area has now been moved east of Michigan.  This is a strong enough system, but it has relatively low temperatures and dew points to deal with.  It will give us showers, a wet start to Wednesday and some fairly strong winds (gusts to 25-30 mph on Weds.).  The rain showers will change to snow showers by evening with an inch or less accumulation (maybe an inch and a half up toward Mason County).    Monday’s severe weather was limited to a handful of trees and wires down near Tampa.

311 Responses to “Outside Chance of a T-Storm”

  1. INDY says:

    BREAKING NEWS NO THUNDERSTORMS TO JUNE!!!! JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS!! INDYY!!

    1. Alan P says:

      I will do the severe weather dance! Bring on the tornadoes….need some excitement around here. Wonder if there has ever been a tornado over lots of snow……a sno-nado…haha

      1. Wswplz says:

        Keep doing the dance, I’m not sure what yours looks like, but I have tried many, maybe that is the problem as I forget which one of them worked. Please let the serve season be a good one, plz!

    2. jerry hoag says:

      INDY!!!!!!!!! Severe Weather is coming!!!!!!!!!! Just have to be patient!!!!! It will be here soon!!!!!!!!!!

    3. Jack says:

      FIRST THUNDER STORM……….APRIL 1!!!!!!!!!!!! Stay CueDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD! ;-)

      1. jerry hoag says:

        Jack I still say April 3rd but I just relized I will be in Minnesota then….so of course it will happen then. I wont be home that is why…LOL..

    4. Let’s not get carried away

      1. jerry hoag says:

        Why Not?????????????? It is so cool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  2. jerry hoag says:

    Yes this will eventually end but when JULY???????? LOL……… why not go for the record snow fall huh???? we are so close and with 2 snow chances a coming why not do it, right???????

    1. Barb says:

      We need about 40 more inches–not likely.

  3. Alan P says:

    THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
    SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT TIME
    FRAME. WE HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM…AND
    TRENDED THE P-TYPE TOWARD A LITTLE LESS SNOW.

    From the NWS, “warmer” temps less snow…..who knew

  4. INDY says:

    We need green grass out at thee YARDofBRICKS first party is about 2 months away!! SPRITE UP INDYY!!

    1. Jack says:

      Yeaaaaaaaaaa…..CUE::: Tom Jones – Green green grass of home 1967 – YouTube
      ► 2:52► 2:52
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-yKq-FsFyk
      Heeee, heeeee…. Stay Cued…..INDY……… :-)

      1. Barb says:

        I’m shoveling my piles of snow to other parts of the yard in hopes of getting green grass sooner rather than later.

  5. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

    Had 5 red-winged blackbirds at my feeder today. Saw a flock of sand hill cranes go over our house this afternoon and my tulips and other spring flowers are coming up in my flower beds. Yea :)

    1. You have flowers already coming up? I didn’t think we got warm enough for that yet lol but seeing flowers coming up would be a nice sight right now

      1. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

        They are up about 1/2 inch. It helps that they are on the south side of the house, otherwise they’d still be totally buried in snow – lol.

        1. That is true. South facing areas have warmed up nicely. If warmer temps could stick around south facing hills and slopes could green right up

    2. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

      You know when I read what you wrote I thought no way but in my garden where the snow is melting mine are coming up too! I also heard the birds singing today like they haven’t in a long time. Spring is coming!! :)

  6. Good news for people who want some warmer weather. Temperatures next week have been bumped up even more (we now have 41 on March 27)with the coldest temperature on March 25. They have bumped March 26 up from 31 to 34. Things could still go back down again, but the latest trend has shown this. As well as I heard the best news in a while. RAIN is possible tonight with temperatures not even going below freezing, meaning our snow pack will continue to dwindle overnight (could see a quarter to a half inch of rain). Although temperatures will fall throughout the day tomorrow, getting down to 30 with snow coming in with very light accumulations (Maybe and inch for Northern Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, and Mecosta) with just trace amounts elsewhere

    1. Also at this point, Friday (March 21) it looks warmer with rain showers. I see a high in the mid 40′s with rain with snow to wrap in behind it. We definantly need to monitor this one though, because things will change another 20 times likely before then.

      1. Wswplz says:

        It’s somewhat narrowed down at least from a partial consensus using the GFS / Euro in that the first mention would have the faster solution , northern trending with a little more snow , then that of the slower euro solution ,more consistent ( what’s new ) with a little less QPF and looks liked the preferred track. Of course depending on the strength of this low and what happens with the temps along the way will significantly affect the p-type, considering it holds true to current euro solution.( many times it to changes course ). :)

    2. Barb says:

      Yippee!!!

  7. mr. negative says:

    The winter season has simply stretched a bit. Cold and snow through May, flurries through June, with rising temperatures bringing freezing rain/ice storms in July. By August, we can hope for a full month of mid 40s. Oh well, there’s always next year.

    1. Justin (Grand Haven) says:

      Indy and Rocky would love this

      1. Barb says:

        Please–don’t awaken the dweebs.

  8. Jack says:

    Another Very COOL TIE BILL!!! We Love it…. Jack & Irene…….Stay Cued…

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Thanks…I do like this one.

    2. jerry hoag says:

      Jack brother YES another AWESOME tie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. INDY says:

    Well Kyle tell Bill that about the warm up!!! He said temps will not even make the freezing mark next Monday Tuesday and Wednesday still feels like winter now in late March!! INDYY!!

    1. It is an observation I made on another site and decided to share the findings. It may be right or may be wrong. I never said we were getting a for sure warm-up.

    2. shelbyville says:

      I agree, there is some cold air moving in after this weekends system…

      1. shelbyville says:

        High pressure, lots of sun, but it is going to get really cold.

    3. Brad (Van Buren) says:

      Alright…I’m holding Bill to his word that we won’t make the freezing mark on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday. Kinda ballsy of Bill to say that… but if that’s what he said, I’ll go with it.

      1. GB says:

        That’s what he hopes

  10. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    I saw some flies and very skinny squirrels during my walk today. I’m sure the squirrels are happy to find some food on the very few spots of grass we have sticking out up here.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      We have a walnut tree in our backyard. Last fall, I knew we might be in for a long winter, the squirrels were very busy gathering walnuts. I seen couple of them today, they did look a little thin.

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        Yeah, I remember their behavior from fall too. Today was the most active I have seen them since.

        1. Barb says:

          I have spread much food out for them and for the rabbits and birds, etc.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      Here in the GR area we have more and more bare ground showing up. While there is still a lot of snow on the north side of buildings and shady areas many open areas are now showing more and more ground. Even in the woods near my house in the open areas there are now bare spots showing up. BUT the grass/weeds ect are very flat and very brown.
      SlimJim

      1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

        We mostly just have grass showing in the open areas where the wind blew it away and the sun shines all day. Like by the mall and along the major roads. Otherwise, still lots of snow left. In the other open areas, there is probably 6 to 12 inches…with some patches of grass and then over a foot pretty much everywhere else where the sun doesn’t hit. I’d estimate we are still about 90% snow covered.

        1. Barb says:

          Here also in SE GR.

  11. On the Grand says:

    Well something lived under all that snow. I have little trail routes all over the top of the lawn and chewed up grass nest all over the place. Some of the plants that were all covered with snow have been chewed down to the core. Nice labyrinth.

    1. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

      Mice or shrews.

  12. jerry hoag says:

    The squirrels are running around gathering their nuts……While walking my dog today, the neighborhood squirrel was out and of course teasing my dog and digging up food (nuts) and then stupidly eating them in the street!!!!!! Ummmm stupid squirrel…..LOL>…

  13. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Awesome sunset this evening!

    1. jerry hoag says:

      YES the sunset was awesome!!!!!

    1. Wswplz says:

      How were the trails? Starting to get rough here along the river / bike / snow mobile path in Cedar and too the north, but I have seen some trails still that are okay.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        The trails are not perfect, however still plenty of SNOW to go enjoy the BEST WINTER EVER!

    2. Wswplz says:

      Normally I would like the looks of this if I knew it were either snow event or a convective rain storm, but not so much when it’s a hybrid, and a less convective blend to boot.

    3. Barb says:

      I don’t see that at all! You’re delusional.

  14. I actually saw my first Clover plant popping up out of the ground along the road in Overisel Township on a south facing slope. At least there sometime green out there.

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Are yu sure it wasn’t wacked weed???? Just asking…..LOL…

  15. Paul m says:

    Indy & Rocky= hype

    1. jerry hoag says:

      NAW, INDY, Jerry, Jack, Rocky equal Severe Weather Ramp up!!!!!!!!!!!!

  16. Cort S. says:

    Coming soon to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: Tornadoes in the Central United States and the “Clash of Air Masses”

    http://eloquentscience.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/ClashR2-submitted.pdf

    It talks about how the commonly cited “clash of air masses” explanation in the context of tornado formation is oversimplified, outdated, and incorrect.

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Cort, AWESOME!!!!! Many thanks man!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. jerry hoag says:

        Hey everyone this is a must read!!!!!!!!!!!! Very good information!!! Many thanks Cort!!!!!

      2. Wswplz says:

        What was the part of the article ( abstract ) that you found most interesting Jerry ? Do you think we see this thinking play into our severe weather season this year. ?

    2. Wswplz says:

      Hello Cort….First I liked the read if not just for some more insight on tornadoes. How ever as far as the ” clash of the air masses ” and how our media perceives this weather phenomena , or rather reports on the contributing factors, a la inflammatory jargon ( or more accurate explanation of events ) , dare I say will never happen. Many thanks to the fellas across the pond however for reaching out. :)

  17. Wayne (South of GR) says:

    18Z GFS 16 day precip totals 7.1 inches

  18. Wswplz says:

    You can see the bands starting to fan out off this system as it approaches.

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_us_loop-12.gif

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Looks like on that there will be some development in northern Ill.

    2. Jack says:

      Nice Link, Thanks Wswplz…. Question are You gonna Your Name 2—– STWplz…. As The Season Changes….Just a Thought….Staying CUED…… ;-)

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Jacks fingers smell like raccoon butt!! :-(

      2. Wswplz says:

        That’s funny, I thought about that ….at this rate I would have to wait until June to make the transition. Lol

  19. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Just landed a big time job today. One I have been pursuing for over a year now. This changes everything. Finally got the break I’ve been hoping for. So excited!

    1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Congrats, Brian!! Will you be staying in Grandville?

      1. Brian (Grandville) says:

        Yes, I get to stay, it is an amazing opportunity with a nationwide corporation.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Congrats!

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Congratulations Brian! Always exciting to start something new. I hope it works out well for you.

    4. Jack says:

      CONGRATS..!!!!! BRIAN… !!! Happy For U!!!! Stay CueDDD…. ;-)

    5. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Thank you all.

    6. Wswplz says:

      Whooo hoooo….nicely done congrats!!!

    7. bobcat says:

      Very nice! Perseverance pays off! Congrats!!!

    8. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Congrats!

    9. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Good luck as you start your new job. Keep us updated.

  20. DF (SE Mich) says:

    There sure was a lot of hype out of Flint today for an exactly average day ;) 47° though, nice day. It hit 50° at my home today.

  21. Cliff(Scotts) says:

    Worst Tornado in US history happened today in 1925!!!

  22. Cort S. says:

    Check out this satellite loop of a dust storm across the Texas panhandle today:

    http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/index.php?type=KS-vis-48

    1. Wswplz says:

      That looks massive….took me a few watches to locate it a t first. It looks like a downburst or outflow in front of an advancing line segment.

  23. Ryan says:

    Bill what’s it look like for summer storms this year I love them??

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I have been hearing it could be a very active year for severe storms in this area, I watched a youtube video yesterday about severe weather chances for this year and the person is very concerned about above normal severe weather in this area and an increased risk of derechos because of the position of the jet stream this year and believe it or not the cold weather.

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        I been hearing the same thing. Just be ready for any kind of severe storms.

  24. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Snow machine is getting tuned up!!!!!!!! Be ready!!!!!!!!!!!

  25. mr. negative says:

    Cold…storm free…more cold -

  26. Wswplz says:

    After reading the last update ( NWS ) it looks unchanged except a small delay in the precip which should spread our cwa between 06z to 09z with a small chance for frza between 8z to 12z. ( 4am – 12pm ). May need a SPS if roads become slick. Looks to be somewhat of a tame event however be safe out there as many have shortimers syndrome and forget how to drive hence our dry weather as of late. :)

    1. Wswplz says:

      Sat loop image of the low moving toward us you can really see the center of the low passing through the eastern edge of Iowa of few hours ago.

      http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=enh&inv=0&t=l12&region=mw

      1. Jacob G says:

        It looks like the low moved east a bit more than the models were showing early today and previous days. FZRA was always in the forecast and just goes to show that we can still draw in colder air even after a mild day like today. If we can get a deeper low to come up from the SW we will be pulling in a lot more cold air from the NE/E winds. I hope this isn’t a sign to come for us but we are not out of the woods on blizzards or ice storms until Tax day.

        1. Jack says:

          TAX DAY……:-(. CUE : The Beatles – Taxman – YouTube
          ► 2:41► 2:41
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbQiVQuiu04.

        2. Wswplz says:

          If we had a better track with this low we would be getting much different weather obviously. Btw did someone say FRZA was not in the forecast, or where you mentioning that to reinforce your statement of cold air availability even with our warm temps.?

        3. Jacob G says:

          Just was commenting on how the NWS out of GRR and APX did a good job on identifying the possibilities of FZRA and that these late winter systems can still pull in colder air into them than what the models are printing out. No worries, sometimes you do have to spell things out and defend your position on this blog and it can come across being a bit too direct. I notice you have been adding quite a bit to the conversations lately and nice to see that. Where are you located at? And I have to ask does Wswplz stand for “Winter Storm Watch/Warning Please?”

        4. Wswplz says:

          I live kinda outskirts of Cedar / springs … Yes you got it Winter Storm Warning please….lol( probably need to change it ). I’m not bias to cold weather or warm for that matter, but I am looking forward to this spring / summer and very much hoping for some severe weather in the following months. I know what ya mean about sometimes having to back your position ,however I actually thought you may have been referring to my post but wasn’t sure as I mentioned FRZA in my comment above. Lol. So no you were pretty clear in your statement and I wasn’t questioning ,so to speak( thought maybe you misread my comment) although I do agree with you as they do often know what they are doing nearly all the time, pretty amazing to me actually. I enjoy reading your posts btw..

        5. Jacob G says:

          Ha, what do I win? I am just off 17 mile road here in Kent City, so we are not far from each other. Yeah we need to come up with a new one. Maybe the closet one to what you have now could be “STWPlz” for Severe Thunderstorm Warning Please, lol

        6. Wswplz says:

          Yes I’ve thought about that as that would be appropriate. hehe. Or I was just going to change , to my name as you and many others do, or just leave it idk, decisions …decisions…jk. Yes we are close in fact I live off 18 mile but east of course and I’ve driving down 17m many times past your area, as I often enjoy driving out that way during storms towards Musk and other places that tend to receive good snow in the less traveled spots. Shoot I need to catch sm Zzz as I’m off to work early…ttyl8tr Jacob .

      2. Wswplz says:

        Pretty impressive snow totals already across the lake!!

        http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=snowtotals

        Rada coverage of the snow / rain MN /. WI

        http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=mpxwinter

        1. Wswplz says:

          Easier map to read of some snow totals:

          http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=mpx

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