Warm Air Comin’ Closer

March 22nd, 2014 at 2:09 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

high temps   Click on the image to enlarge.  This is a map of high temperatures from Friday (from SUNY).  It was 60° as close to us as Kankakee, Illinois – 74° at Springfield IL, 77 at St. Louis, 65 at Lafayette IN and 68 at Indianapolis.  However, our wind goes northwest.  You can see the single-digit high temperatures up near and north of Lake Winnipeg in Canada.  There’s the air that’s coming here, so we’ll stay relatively chilly thru Weds.  There’s still a lot of snow on the ground across Canada and anytime we get a northerly flow, it’s going to be cool.   Also:   More on the low tornado count this year.   The two years cited at the link for having a very low tornado count were 1951 and 1969.  Both of those years were followed by very snowy winters in West Michigan (1951-52 and 1969-70) and in those years, snow came early, in November.  Here’s a surface map, showing the cold air coming in.  At 11 am it’s still 36 in G.R., but 22 in Traverse City and only 8 above at Houghton (winds are NNW).

Model update:  Morning run of the NAM (caribou) has 1.8″ of snow for G.R. for Monday night/Tuesday with slick roads Tuesday morning.  That model gives 2.2″ to Kalamazoo and 1.4″ for Big Rapids, S. Haven and Holland.

Also:  A clover!   Huge dust devil near Las Vegas NMLighting started this fire in AustraliaTumbleweed Tornado at a controlled burn in ColoradoFogbow“Mothership” thunderstorm in Australia.

Here’s the 8-14 day outlook from CPC.   This will change to a new map each day.  I’ll respond to the current Friday map.  it shows cool across the Northern U.S. and warm across the Southern U.S. relative to average.  That would create in general a large temperature contrast from south to north and would provide some “ammunition” for a stormy period.  We’ve been lucky in that the overall cool pattern has held back the tornado/severe weather season and also flooding.  We haven’t had much Gulf of Mexico moisture pushing northward.  If that changes…things could get stormy.  I’ll repeat – we are NOT out of the woods when it comes to flooding when the snow melts off.  The overnight European model gives G.R. 0.91″ of rain from the Thurs./Friday system and the GFS is over 1/2″.   The ground will be wet and not able to absorb a lot of rain…so any heavy rainfall in April has the chance to produce flooding.  There is also still a heavy snowpack up north.  Here’s some Friday AM snow depths:  44″ Grand Marais, 40″ Copper Harbor, 35″ Munising, near Houghton and at the Marquette NWS, 29″ S. Ste. Marie and Ironwood, 18″ Petoskey, 17″ Cadillac, Kalkaska and Gaylord, 13″ Houghton Lake, 12″ Scottville and Traverse City.

199 Responses to “Warm Air Comin’ Closer”

  1. fixxxer says:

    hey mother nature get your $hit together please!

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Still drunk this morning?

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        I was joking, and I don’t bully or mistreat anyone.

    2. SW Kent says:

      You are sick.

      1. Timothy de Graaf says:

        Really Kent? Coming from a guy who defends Rocky, that piece of trash who is always attacking people?

        1. SW Kent says:

          You have missed the sarcasm Tim.

  2. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Some nice weather today for hockey! My hockey league is outside for another two weeks before it moves indoors. I think we’ll make it this year.

    1. Michael g (se GR) says:

      Reed’s Lake looks like a skating rink right now. Could skate smoothly all the way across, if you keep an eye out for ice fishing holes.

  3. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Mostly cloudy and a cold 24° here at my house. And while there is a lot of bare ground around town and here in my area the airport is still reporting 1” of snow on the ground so with my start date of December 8th 2013 GR is now at 105 days of constitutive snow cover! And that would put GR in a tie for second place on the all time constitutive snow cover list next up would be 107 days if the airport still reports a snow cover of at least 1” until Tuesday (when we could get some snow) we would have a good chance of setting a new record!
    SlimJim

  4. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Cold air is gonna keep pushing in. Making more ice on the lake. Well over 20 inches still.

  5. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Now as for a warm up! While it looks to become more “average” like at the start of April I would not put your winter coats away nor your snow shovels either for that matter as the first 2 to 3 weeks of April could be on the bumpy side. We shall see. It may be mid to late May before we see a good warm up this year (I hope not but that could happen)
    SlimJim

    1. Julie says:

      Nooooooooo, don’t say that :(

  6. ptmartin (grandville) says:

    moderate snow here in Grandville! Sick of it!

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Yup, it just picked up quite a bit by me too.

  7. Brian (Grandville) says:

    One hour ago it was nice and sunny out. Now its cloudy with light snow. At least its been a slow melt so far. It looks like a few cold days to start the week, with a bit of snow tomorrow night. Still not seeing anything warm after that.

  8. michael g (SE GR) says:

    This past week, which I’m sure was described as warm in some non-specific way by Travis, featured these daily departures from normal….-20, -17, -4, +1, -6, -5, -6. That gives a weekly average of -8.1. The next 7 day period may be even colder. The pattern hasn’t changed a bit, the normal are just rising.

  9. Debbie (Jenison) says:

    Wow, it is snowing pretty good here in Jenison. :(

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Sorry I haven’t been on here much this weekend, it looks like a very cold start to the week! And of course snowy as well! Looks like we will warm up towards the end of the week with near average temperatures maybe slightly below with some rain, then we should stick in the 40′s for next weekend, which will be nice compared to this weekend! More snow will probably melt towards next week but those big snow piles remain at least until the end of April. My prediction for the next couple weeks.

  11. on the Grand says:

    I cannot believe it, Spring Lake is still frozen over and there was a guy walking on it. It is drab and cold, then sunny and cold, then snowy and sunny and cold today. It is just too windy to do anything outside.

  12. Are people ever happy with the temperatures in Michigan? Storm team 8 has 46 and sunny in the 8-Day an apparently that’s still “cold” to people. The 8-14 day outlook has southern and southeastern Michigan In the normal range. That is near 50 this time of year. Compared to what we are used to, that is a major shift in a pattern. At least were not stuck in the 90% range for below normal temps. Average temps will be the new rule later this week into next week

    1. Bobby (Ada) says:

      I agree! I will take anything above 40 with the strong march sun! Feels much better than mid 20′s lol

    2. SW Kent says:

      To answer your question Kyle…….no

  13. mr. negative says:

    While we routinely would hope for, expect, anticipate a temp of 45 today…Sadly, it’s more snow and 25.

  14. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We just got back from Brownstown a few hours ago. It was in the low 50′s down there yesterday, but it was windy so it felt colder. There’s not much in the way of snow south of I-94. Still tons of snow in the wooded areas, and you can see an increase of snow in the fields from West Main and north. Our driveway has yet to thaw out as there is still several inches of ice on it. Hopefully we get at least 2″ of snow this week so I can go over 150″ for the winter.

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      You guys up north can have the snow. I will gladly take all the bare ground around here.

      1. Hey Travis, is the forests in the Brownstown area beginning to turn green on the forest floor? as well as are the trees budding down that way yet?

        1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

          Nope, not yet. Everything was still a nasty brown.

      2. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

        I was surprised how firm the bare grass was at my friends house in Three Rivers. Any grass we have showing here is very muddy/mushy.

  15. INDY says:

    LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW!!!!!! SPRITE IT UP!! INDYY!!

  16. Jacob G says:

    So some things to watch for this week. Lets see if we can get at Flint over their seasonal snowfall record, Detroit may have to wait until the following week. Definitely a cold start with a small clipper coming through Monday night/Tuesday morning effecting Tuesday morning commute. We should also see a burst of WAA snow Wednesday night possibly effecting Thursday morning commute. It does warm up for Thu/Fri and the next storm comes through similar to what we had this past week but with a bit more moisture. We should lose our official snow cover at GRR by end of this week as well. The models have been showing a tight gradient of temperatures showing up the first week of April with building high pressures to the N and NE of us. I think we need to really keep an eye out during the first week of April for some nasty weather and that may very well be mixture of ice, snow and rain. Have a good week!

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Do you see any severe storms.

    2. Michael g (se GR) says:

      Classic ice storm set up.

  17. shelbyville says:

    I just got home from Steelhead Camp near Manistee, the river’s are clear and low, which means not good fishing… Our cabin is on the lakeshore and it is always interesting to see how much the beach has changed since the fall. There are huge mounds of snow/dirt about 100ft out then 1/4 mile of broken ice.
    This morning the lake effect snow kicked in and ice began to come in across the horizon.. Awesome, but cold….

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Sounds like you had fun?

  18. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Looks like today will end up 24° below the average high. Pretty sure today’s below average temp will cancel out all the above average days for the whole month. Pretty incredible to think just 2 years ago March was completely opposite of this March. Pure Michigan at it’s finest I guess.

    1. Michael g (se GR) says:

      Looks like we’re going to see a 60 day period at -9* to -10*, and a 90 day period at greater than -8*. Even more impressive than Travis’s +15* in March 2012, followed by an normal (+0.3*) April.

      1. Michael g (se GR) says:

        In fact, January-March this year will go down as colder than ANY three month period in the famously warm 2012.

        1. Michael g (se GR) says:

          * farther BELOW normal than any three month period was ABOVE normal.

        2. GB says:

          Dude what is your deal? Did you give up posting about anything except Travis for Lent?

          Get off the guy.

        3. DF (SE Mich) says:

          Right on. We also had a more extreme departure from average day this winter than any day in 2012.

        4. INDY says:

          TRAVIS IS UP HILL!!! INDYY!!

  19. Wswplz says:

    Tough loss for the shockers, wow ,great season but that’s going to sting for a while….

  20. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    We had many “ground coating” snow showers around here today. It would snow hard and cover the ground, then the sun would melt. Rinse and repeat. All my friends were blaming me. haha

  21. INDY says:

    Another below normal day in Grand rapids Michigan!! INDYY!!

  22. Is it just me, or is it time for a new thread? Lol

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Bill must be catching up on sleep.

      1. Wswplz says:

        Zzzzzzz, wood tv , zzzzzzz, my blog meh, zzzzzz, global warming..what? Bad dream, zzzzzzzzz

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      We’re in the midst of an uneventful weather pattern. Then again, there’s always sports. GO GREEN!

      1. Wswplz says:

        DeAndre Big Daddy Kane comes up with a clutch drive to keep the cyclones rollin, but can they keep it going with one of their key players injured? ( maybe he goes idk ) game time decision I would guess.

  23. Wswplz says:

    Looks like the Thursday – Friday period will see a fair amount of liquid, which of that should fall mostly in the form of rain. Our early morning snow on Tuesday looks pretty tame as we might see an 1-2 from this quick moving northern stream, I’m guessing closer to 1″ for most.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

  24. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The weather has been a little boring lately. Just waiting so I can sit out on the back deck.

  25. INDY says:

    Drinking lots of sprites on this cold night!!! INDY!!

    1. SW Kent says:

      Shocking.

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