Warm Air Comin’ CloserMarch 22nd, 2014 at 2:09 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the image to enlarge. This is a map of high temperatures from Friday (from SUNY). It was 60° as close to us as Kankakee, Illinois – 74° at Springfield IL, 77 at St. Louis, 65 at Lafayette IN and 68 at Indianapolis. However, our wind goes northwest. You can see the single-digit high temperatures up near and north of Lake Winnipeg in Canada. There’s the air that’s coming here, so we’ll stay relatively chilly thru Weds. There’s still a lot of snow on the ground across Canada and anytime we get a northerly flow, it’s going to be cool. Also: More on the low tornado count this year. The two years cited at the link for having a very low tornado count were 1951 and 1969. Both of those years were followed by very snowy winters in West Michigan (1951-52 and 1969-70) and in those years, snow came early, in November. Here’s a surface map, showing the cold air coming in. At 11 am it’s still 36 in G.R., but 22 in Traverse City and only 8 above at Houghton (winds are NNW).
Model update: Morning run of the NAM (caribou) has 1.8″ of snow for G.R. for Monday night/Tuesday with slick roads Tuesday morning. That model gives 2.2″ to Kalamazoo and 1.4″ for Big Rapids, S. Haven and Holland.
Here’s the 8-14 day outlook from CPC. This will change to a new map each day. I’ll respond to the current Friday map. it shows cool across the Northern U.S. and warm across the Southern U.S. relative to average. That would create in general a large temperature contrast from south to north and would provide some “ammunition” for a stormy period. We’ve been lucky in that the overall cool pattern has held back the tornado/severe weather season and also flooding. We haven’t had much Gulf of Mexico moisture pushing northward. If that changes…things could get stormy. I’ll repeat – we are NOT out of the woods when it comes to flooding when the snow melts off. The overnight European model gives G.R. 0.91″ of rain from the Thurs./Friday system and the GFS is over 1/2″. The ground will be wet and not able to absorb a lot of rain…so any heavy rainfall in April has the chance to produce flooding. There is also still a heavy snowpack up north. Here’s some Friday AM snow depths: 44″ Grand Marais, 40″ Copper Harbor, 35″ Munising, near Houghton and at the Marquette NWS, 29″ S. Ste. Marie and Ironwood, 18″ Petoskey, 17″ Cadillac, Kalkaska and Gaylord, 13″ Houghton Lake, 12″ Scottville and Traverse City.