Winter Weather Advisory

April 2nd, 2014 at 7:24 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

advisory  advisory two  A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Ottawa, Kent, Ionia, Eaton and Ingham Counties north to US 10.   The Advisory will be in effect from 5 am to 6 pm Thursday for MASON-OCEANA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON- EATON- and INGHAM Counties and from  8 am Thursday to Noon on Friday for LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-and ISABELLA Counties.  The Advisory is for * FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. * A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY.   IMPACTS… * HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO ICY ROADS THURSDAY. * ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES THURSDAY DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.  For the 2nd set of counties (Lake to Isabella) the Advisory also mentions the possibility of wet snow and sleet at the start, which may accumulate an inch or two.  The storm will also impact areas north and east of the Advisory Area.  Here’s the Forecast Discussions for West Michigan, Northern Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan.  NWS also mentions the chance of a thunderstorm over S. Lower Michigan Thurs. night.  The precipitation may end with a short period of light snow Friday night into Saturday AM.

Then we’ll get another storm on Monday, and this one doesn’t look good either.  GRR NWS says:  “THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE SYSTEM IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS COULD  BE A PROBLEM FOR US AS IT IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH A LOT OF  GULF MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH AND THIS TIME WE ARE SOLIDLY IN THE COLD  AIR. IT ALSO GOES NEGATIVE TILT AT UPPER LEVELS ASSURING A STRONG  SURFACE SYSTEM. THE PROBLEM FOR SNOW FOR US FROM THIS SYSTEM IS THAT  THIS IS A SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND IT DOES NOT HAVE COLD  ENOUGH AIR FOR SNOW AS IT HEADS TOWARD MICHIGAN. HOWEVER ONCE IT  DOES GET HERE… THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS…WET BULB COOLING AND  TAPPING THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING HEAVY WET  SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. EVEN IF WE DO NOT GET THE SNOW FROM  THIS STORM IT MAY WELL BE A 1-INCH PLUS RAINFALL EVENT.  GIVEN HOW  HIGH OUR RIVERS ARE NOW… THAT WOULD ONLY ADD TO FLOODING ISSUES.”   This system could be a significant snow producer for Northern Lower Michigan, which would add to the snow cover there and that would mean we’d have a longer time for cold surface air to come off the snow with a northwest to north-northeast wind…not looking like a warm early-mid April and probably beyond.  The Marquette NWS says:  “THERE WILL BE A FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…RAIN AND  SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE NORTH HALF WILL SEE  SNOW AND THIS COULD RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE SOUTH  HALF COULD SEE UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND 0.20 INCH OF ICE  ACCUMULATION.”

Also, 2nd straight year that we’ve started the year with a very low tornado count (due to the cold air), but we’ll get back to at least average with the contrast of the warming air to the south and the cold air over the cold Great Lakes from now thru early summer.  We’ll have a few severe weather days here, but the threat looks a little more substantial over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys west into Missouri and Arkansas.  Joscha makes a good point here.

Graphics from the National Weather Service – Click on the images to enlarge.

46 Responses to “Winter Weather Advisory”

  1. TAZ (Freeport) says:

    REALLY? NO, REALLY?

    WTF (Why The Face)!

  2. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

    Hey Bill, I see the NWS say’s “We will be solidly in the cold air for Monday” so they are talking about snow. But their point forecast says high of 54 on Monday and 49 on Tuesday. Are they talking about a high of 49 at midnight Tuesday and dropping throughout the day? Or are they saying one thing in their discussion and telling another on the point forecast because the models are all over the place. It’s pretty typical for them to do that.

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      I was going to say something along those very lines! I would think that some where the NWS temp forecast and their written forecast do not match up! May be that’s Rocky that dose the write up and Travis that dose the zone forecast,
      SlimJim

      1. yooper4021 says:

        LOL!

      2. Jesse (Zeeland) says:

        That’s the one thing that annoys me about the NWS. It’s like they don’t want to put all of their eggs in one basket when the models aren’t depicting specific scenarios. So, for the people reading the discussions daily they are hearing one thing and then seeing another on their forecast. Haha about Rocky, he thinks it will just stay winter all year! By the looks of it, I would think it’s a fair assumption to say that April and May will be cooler than average if we keep seeing the upper ridge out West. I want to see the Jet stream flatten out a little bit! It should also concentrate the severe weather out into the western plains and upper Mississippi valley if the pattern stays the same throughout the spring.

        1. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

          I’ve been pointing out those inconsistencies all winter. It deals often with which meteorologist is writing up the discussion, etc…

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      That’s why I like the NWS’s Hourly Forecast – it gives a clear picture of what they think will happen. Granted – it doesn’t always agree with what certain models will show…. but I find it remarkably accurate for a few days out.

  3. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    I got to figure out where Hastings/Barry County fits into this weather mess. I have a feeling we’ll be right in the middle of everything, and that’s not good. I need about 3 cups of coffee this morning. Not a good weather forecast to wake-up to. We still love you Bill and everyone at Storm Team 8.

    1. michael g (se GR) says:

      Hastings/Barry County fits mainly in the rain.

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        I agree, it will be interesting to see what really happens.

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          And we really DON’T need rain – the Thornapple is full enough as it is :-(

        2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

          I am about two blocks north of the Thornapple River. I think right now we are OK, but any heavy amounts of rain,some people living along the river will have some problems.

  4. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    We shall see how this forecast package pans out.
    SlimJim

  5. KrisFromMI says:

    Well I hope this is ALL wrong! LOL I live up in Cadillac and we do NOT need any more snow! I work in the Christmas Trees and was scheduled to go back to work next week, if we get all of that snow that isn’t going to happen :/ Oh well it is what it is! GOTTA love Michigan :)

  6. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The NWS website forecast for Hastings…freezing rain, then their map shows only rain for Hastings/Barry County. It’s going to be fun to see what happens. I am sure at 12 noon and 6 p.m. weather forecast we will get better updates in what will happen. I love Michigan weather, never know what will happen.

  7. Cdee says:

    This is one time I am glad I live in the southern most part of the state.. Hope we get only rain!

  8. tinainvbcounty says:

    Oh boy. I really hope we stay in the warmer side of all this. Today, I will enjoy the sun we have and spring prep some raised garden beds. No Ice!!!!!!!

  9. April says:

    Are you kidding me??! The weather this winter is enough to seriously make me go nuts. I feel I’m on the edge! Why can’t winter just let go?! I seriously want toscream.

  10. yooper4021 says:

    And the crazy winter continues up north…

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=mqt

  11. Jessica says:

    We are leaving for a road trip to DC Thursday around 5:30pm throughout the night… bad idea???

    1. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

      Remarkable that most of those beat the previous records by more to much more than 1° ….
      Stupid global wa…..climate change!!

  12. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Oh great the NWS point forecast gives me up to .2″ of ice through tomorrow evening! They even say power outages are possible, better get the generator ready just in case! Going to be a nasty next 24 hours!

  13. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    Hopefully the storm system on Monday will be more snow than rain. I’m only 0.6″ from 150″, I would get to possibly snowmobile in April, and the moisture from the snow would slowly make it to the rivers unlike plain rain.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      NO NO NO NO NO NO don’t say that S word in April, haha! It can be snow in Martin and Rockford so you and Rocky can snowmobile and rain everywhere else, but there might as well be 150″ of snow for the season so I hope you can reach that 150″ mark.

    2. Cali1005 says:

      Dude we’ve had our fair share of winter. Enough is enough!

    3. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      I would be happy with just 0.6″ of snow, and then to 60°+ for the rest of April.

    4. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

      Do you still have a good snowpack!? We lost most of ours around here with the 60 degree temps on Monday. :( for me. :) for my wife and everybody else we passed while on our walk. haha

      There’s still snow in my yard and the woods, but not much anywhere else.

    5. GunLakeDeb says:

      Our trails (YSSA) are officially closed now – but that doesn’t mean you couldn’t take a spin around a field, just to say you did it?!

  14. Lisa (Caledonia) says:

    Monday is still five days out… I’m not about to panic about something that will change daily between now and then.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I agree with you.

    2. Cali1005 says:

      Didn’t Bill mention at one point one of the forecast models said we would get 5 inches of snow on the 3rd of this month??

  15. Cali1005 says:

    This is why I hate living in Michigan. Cya everyone I’m moving to Florida.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Moving to Key West, Florida would be your best choice.

    2. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

      Okay, see ya.

    3. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Good riddance.

  16. Jack says:

    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ??? CRAP, CRAP, CRAP…… Happy SPRING!!!! & Happy ” Wasted” WED. STAY cued…… ;-)

  17. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    More snow and cold??? Who knew??? ;)

    1. Jack says:

      I wonder how many Times We Will That, when ( you know WHO) starts Commenting on This THREAD…..Stay CUED…,,,

  18. Nick says:

    Confusing that this is bills blog but yet he has not posted once… Lame. I’m sure from what I’ve looked at from multiple sources it seems to be mostly rain not snow. Then again what do I know I’m not the weather man. It’s an obvious shot in the dark, might as well be playing the guessing game…:/

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Extra meetings today, hard to post today – had to concentrate on doing TV and radio.

  19. Jack says:

    Whoops….*Hear That ****.

  20. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

    We don’t need any of this mess! Bring on “Spring” please! Monday was so nice.

  21. Mr. Positive says:

    Hey it could be worse. Minneapolis is supposed to get 6-10 inches tomorrow. Don’t know how they’re going to play aksetball in that weather lol

  22. Mr. Positive says:

    Despite the overall cold pattern in the last month we have lost about 20 inches of snow.

  23. Mr. Positive says:

    We will not get snow on Monday. It will be too warm so we will get rain instead.

Leave a Reply