Pleasant Sunday

April 6th, 2014 at 6:22 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

modis lake michigan modis great lakes wluc snow april 2014 These are the MODIS satellite pictures from Saturday PM for Lake Michigan and the Great Lakes and the last pic. is from WLUC in Marquette, where parts of the U.P. had up to 17″ of snow on Friday (click on the pics. to enlarge).  There’s still ice west of our area in Lake Michigan and there was snow on the ground from Newaygo Co. north. You can see the ice breaking up some, but most of Lake Superior, Green Bay and the Straits area still have lots of ice.  The average high for Grand Rapids is now mid 50s and I think we can get there today.  After a clear and cool start with early morning temps. in the 20s, we’ll see morning sun, then some high clouds arrive from SW to NE ahead of the rain we get on Monday.  The Sat. night run of the NAM (caribou) giver G.R. 0.14″ of rain.  The most rain will fall to the southeast and the least to the northwest.  The NAM (caribou) gives Jackson 0.54″ and Ludington just 0.01″.  The European model is similar with 0.17″ for Grand Rapids.  There is a Flood Warning out for the Portage River at Vicksburg and there are a number of River Advisories, but no major flooding problems.  The NAM would give G.R. mid 40s Tues.  and dry for the Whitecaps opener Tues. evening (start time).  The European would be upper 40s with a chance of a brief instability shower.  The European gives G.R. partly sunny and mid-upper 60s next Saturday.   We’ll get another shot at some light rain late Thursday with a weak front.   Here’s high temps. for G.R. from the European model beginning today (Sun.):  55, 51, 55, 54, 64, 57, 66 (Sat.) and 70 (Sun)…then we crash into the upper 30s on Monday the 14th (it is April)…so this will be a relatively mild week.

My Badgers came oh-so-close…good game…strange having a #7 and a #8 seed in the final game.  Now I won’t be distracted by the game while I’m working Monday evening.  It was nice having 3 Big Ten teams in the Elite 8.  Severe T-storm and Tornado Risk for the Gulf Coast this PM and for the Southeast on Monday.

97 Responses to “Pleasant Sunday”

  1. kevin. says:

    I think that’s funny what Bill says about crashing down into the upper 30s on Monday the 14th. It’s better then crashing into the 20s but I think we can say that the really brutal cold/snow is done and were now heading into spring. The Marquette NWS service is also saying the big melt down is starting and looks to continue the next 2-3 weeks with no big cold spells coming. :) yeah

  2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Wow the sun must be powerful to warm us up from 27 to 57!

  3. Resourceful Nana says:

    I sure don’t envy the folks in Marquette and all across the U.P. right now! And I’m looking forward to a big green-up this week! Out with the snow-blowers, in with the lawn mowers.

  4. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Great games for sure. Your Badgers almost pulled it out. I heard less than 2% of the people playing the brackets had UConn and Kentucky in the finals. Staying in Myrtle Beach for the week. It was 81 degrees here on Saturday only supposed to be 61 today. Oh well, its good to be close to the ocean. We are right across the street. Have a great week bloggers! Go Red Wings clinch that wild card playoff spot to nake it 23 straight years!

    1. Dan (Byron Center) says:


  5. DF (SE Mich) says:

    20 degrees here in A2 this morning… That can stop anytime…

    At least the badgers played well unlike MSU, nothing to be ashamed of.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Just don’t forget about when MSU destroyed U of M in football this past season…

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        I wore my MSU rose bowl shirt to the UM spring game yesterday :) I reminded them.

        1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

          I am sure you heard some nice comments. U of M will be back in the Rose Bowl, when we hire a winning coach. GO BLUE

  6. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Did you make into hash bash in A2 yesterday Indy?

  7. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The Tigers are starting out very good. Looks like a nice week to get outdoors. A lot of yard work needs to be done. We were the lucky ones, some people will have 2 or 3 days or more of hard work to get their yards looking good. After a long hard cold winter, we need a nice summer, not too hot and not too cool.

    1. Barb says:

      I’m still spreading out snow in my front yard, so it melts faster, so I CAN do yard work.

  8. Tim from Zeeland says:

    I was pulling for the Badgers to win. Big Ten all the way. Just like U of M, just one shot away from moving on. Now that basketball is over, time for the Tigers. 162-0 this year.

  9. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    My Favorite Thing About Winter…… When It’s OVER!

  10. fixxxer says:

    lmao.. bill hyping up cold weather on the 14th? we all know not to trust long ranges. woodtv and their cold weather bias and hype. no wonder rj will never leave this blog.

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      WZZM has 38° forecasted for next Monday as well.

    2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      You need to tell Bill you are sorry. This is his blog.

  11. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    April 6th 2014 and I still have 3 snow piles from the winter left in my yard. The good news it that they will be gone this week! It still was a cold start today as I had a over night low here of 25° (28° at the airport) It looks like we will have a mild week this week and then maybe a major cold spell mid month. For those who think everything will be green by the end of this week have another thing coming. Its going to take some warm rains to get the ground warm enough for a green up at this time I do not think we will be cutting the grass until some time in May. Heck as I stated above I still have 3 snow piles left in the yard and there is still snow in the woods yet even around here and there could be snow in the woods in the UP until late April and early May (even in parts of northern lower the snow could stick around that long) and yes the snow and ice will leave even up there but in the mean time look for times of cold with any type of north wind.

  12. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    What do you know? WXYZ and WeatherTrends were correct about a warm week upcoming. In fact, the week after looks even warmer. 55-70 degrees every day between April 13 to April 19 according to WXYZ.

    Detroit and Flint are only barely negative for April, so we could very well turn positive for the month soon.

    Looks like DF’s prediction that we won’t see another 60 degree day until the end of April was not even close. WXYZ and WeatherTrends win again.

    1. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

      Funny, the temps just look average this week to me, but I will gladly take the warmup to average temps. We will have to see about WXYZ’s forecast for the week of the 13th, as Bill has us dropping back down into the upper 30′s on the 14th. Who will be correct?????

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        There are indications of a cool down mid month and maybe again late month. No leaves or grass cutting this April as far I can see. Sorry Travis.

    2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      While Detroit has been just a little under average for the first few days of April 2014 other cities in the area have been colder then average here is a list of some cities and how far below average they are after the first 5 days of April.
      GR -3.4
      Alpena -3.7
      Gaylord -5.6
      Marquette -4.9
      Houghton -7.0
      Chicago -4.2
      Flint -1.4
      Detroit -0.6
      Note there are still no above average temps yet!
      As for both
      WXYZ and WeatherTrends I woud not put too much into their accuracy being any better then any other long range guess!

      1. Barb says:

        My cottage in the northern lower is still snowed in. I don’t see getting into it before May.

        1. Wswplz says:

          That’s crazy you still have that much snow , wow.

    3. yooper4021 says:

      Travis, since you like to toot your own horn, would you care to comment on the Accuweather forecast you were so proudly advertising earlier this week? Remember? The one with 4 consecutive 70+ degree days in mid April.

      Also, other forecasts aren’t so bullish with the mid-April temps – NWS, TWC/Intellicast, Accuweather. Plenty of different opinions out there.

    4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      We haven’t had another 60 degree day yet, so he’s still correct.

    5. Michael g (se GR) says:

      You know what they say about the blind squirrel, right?????

  13. This coming week is going to be a great week! and here the SPC had is in a Below Average range for this period! not really below average if you ask me! But there will be a cool down starting on April 14 with even a chance for some snow showers with a temperature of 40 degrees, then 42 on April 15 with sunshine. And guess what?!? all due to a NNW or NW wind! All the snowpack to the north will cool us off, but once the wind shift we bump it out of here and we will warm again towards the end of the month, either that or as we head into May

    1. Cort S. says:

      Getting down and dirty with some data….

      CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook for April 9-13:
      About a 40-50% chance of below-normal for West Michigan. This implies roughly a 30% chance of near-normal and a 20% chance of above-normal.

      Normal mean temperatures (high and low averaged) during the period for GRR is about 46.2.

      Current Storm Team 8 forecast has daily mean temperatures for the period averaged 48.5.

      This is far from a rigorous testing method just to use GRR to verify an outlook, plus my calculation of what GRR’s normal mean temperature is may be different than how CPC calculates it, but we’ll roll with it anyway.

      Is being 2.3 degrees above the normal mean temperature during this period defined to be above normal or near normal? That’s an answer that will require quite a bit more work for us. I’m not certain, but I’m pretty sure that it’s not something easy like an arbitrary departure threshold of 0.5 or 1.0 degrees. The threshold temperature departure value which separates a near-normal classification from an above-normal classification varies both in space and in time. CPC probably defines “above-normal” for a given area to be the top 10 warmest years of the 30-year climatological period (currently 1981-2010), near-normal is the middle 10 years, and below-normal is the top 10 coolest years. The probabilities they give for us to be above/near/below normal during a period indicate the likelihood of the current forecast period falling within the top, middle, or bottom 10 years in the 30-year climatological history. This means that the temperature departure thresholds separating above- and below-normal classifications from near-normal can vary by location, and can also vary by time of year. So is 2.3 degree departure from normal for GRR during the April 9-13 period considered near or above normal? I wouldn’t know without doing a lot of extra work.

      It might seem like all these extra considerations make these outlooks quite wishy-washy, but it’s important to use the products as intended. Remember, CPC outlooks are probabilistic, not deterministic. They give the probability of a location being below-normal, not a yes/no prediction of whether it will be. As such, verification of these outlooks requires a significant amount of statistics in order to determine their predictive skill.

      1. Wswplz says:

        Thanks Cort for your well thought out explanation and look into these outlooks , as I agree they are important and many times misunderstood. I read over theses outlooks and how they are calculated for over 2 hours one day. I also looked at the 6-10 , 8-14 , 30 and 90 day outlooks , where one can also see the data used to make there calculations within different links on that page. Here is an interactive map people can use to see what the temperatures might be in their location based on these percentages.

      2. Wswplz says:

        Oh and btw Cort how would you like me to send donuts your way since you mentioned you may be bribed with this in exchange for your expertise? With this in mind I think I already owe you at least a few dozen donuts for services rendered , but would be happy to send those plus a monthly retainer fee as well. Lo :)

        1. Interesting stuff. They need to make these outlooks easier to understand! Because apparently I can’t interpret them lol

        2. Cort S. says:

          It’s not your fault. These products might not have been designed with the the public in mind. I’ve seen some meteorologists on social media do a poor job of explaining them too. I sure hope I’m at least getting most of the explanation right, but I might not.

          Wsw: We’ll just keep an IOU for now. I might limit the number of donuts to one per day… or maybe two. ;)

        3. Wswplz says:


        4. Mark (East Lansing) says:


        5. Michael g (se GR) says:

          I try to eat healthy for the most part, but I have a profound weakness for donuts. I just consider them run fuel. :-)

      3. Hey Cort this may be a very stupid question I am asking but do tornadoes occur more often in HP or LP Supercells? And also which type (LP or HP) do most violet tornadoes occur in?

        1. Wswplz says:

          Good question Kyle , and definitely one for Cort. Lol My guess most large tornadoes are rain rapped but that’s a tough question if in fact there is any type of correlation between them. Many small spin ups seem quite visible. I’m interested to hear his take.

        2. Wswplz says:

          This doesn’t answer your question directly but I think you can form an opinion and I think this info could be useful to you on your trip Kyle.

        3. Cort S. says:

          Supercells can come with a range of rainfall intensity, and don’t always fit neatly into the 3 boxes of “Low Precip”, “Classic”, and “High Precip.” That said, you can get tornadoes with all 3 types of supercells.

          In general, your LP supercells are more common farther west (the closer you get to the High Plains of Colorado or the TX/OK panhandles) where the air tends to be drier. Tors might be more photogenic because of high cloud bases and limited precip falling from the storm. The lesser amounts of rain in an LP supercell might trick you into thinking that the storm is not very strong when you look at radar (and there probably won’t be much of a hook echo if at all), but LP supercells can often bring strong, dry downbursts of straight-line winds and sometimes can have large hail.

          Classic or HP supercells will probably be more common for you in your target area of eastern Kansas (but as always, it always depends on the particular day’s unique set of environmental conditions). Classic supercells usually have the most… well… classic radar appearance, with an obvious hook echo. The tornadoes they spawn could range from weak to violent depending on a ton of other environmental factors. HP supercells will have deluges of rainfall and would tend to wrap their tornadoes in rain.

          More info:

        4. Wswplz says:

          Here is a good one from Sky-warn…

        5. Wswplz says:

          See Cort your student is thinking like his teacher , I posted the same link. Lol

        6. Cort S. says:

          Indeed. I might owe you a donut.

          I’ll be driving through Kansas on May 4 or 5, probably. Probably won’t get a favorable weather setup, but there’s always that chance.

        7. Cort S. says:

          Here’s another good source… with powerpoint slides.

        8. Wswplz says:

          I hope you do see some weather Cort. If the southern stream doesn’t dip down as far given current thinking around that time period along with a slightly quicker evolution and a little gulf moisture to work with you would be in business.

  14. And just as a traffic alert, Northbound 131 is shut down between 76th and 68th street here in Byron Center due to a crash. That follows a large car fire on the freeway last night in the southbound lanes at the 76th st exit. That was a huge car fire!

  15. Ohh and as a 3rd note…anyone remember the big storms that rolled through here today in 2010? They were big hail producers that came through about 10am. Byron Center got the biggest hail from those storms out of any town in west Michigan, with golfball size hail. We had minor roof damage to some homes on my road.

  16. Wswplz says:

    Have we escaped the Flood Threat This Spring? Answer: I sure hope we do! Here are some thoughts on just that…..

    2013- 14: Factors

    CPC: 3-7 Hazard Outlook

    1. Wswplz says:

      Here is an experimental map one can use for possible flood impacts specific to your location , looking into the future , not occurring at this time.

  17. Dikehopper says:


    That sometimes happens when I start up my charcoal grill in too much of a hurry. The fire department has asked me to to notify them ahead of time when I’m going to grill outside.

    1. Wswplz says:

      That first video with Denver Fire and others was so cool , nice share DK.HR. Like to here how this occurs , I’m assuming the winds and heat to some extent , but similar to a dust devil I’m sure , but way better!!

  18. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Looks like a rain delay for the NASCAR drivers in Texas. I am cheering for Dale Jr. Hope they get to race today. Texas is always a good race to watch.

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      I’m a Hendrick fan and I’d like to see Jimmie Johnson win following the loss of his brother in-law a few days ago in a sky diving accident.

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        Wow, I haven’t heard that news. Are they going to race today?

      2. Wswplz says:

        What I didn’t hear that my buddy Chris is good friends with Jimmy, he went to high school with him in El Cajon San Diego. Not to mention the terrible plane accident years back. I think it was in 2004 , I think 8 died and It could have been even worse as Chandra ( Jimmy’s Wife) was supposed to be on that flight but was delayed for personal reasons. That is really sad to hear…my prayers are with the families. Do you know where this happened Steve?

        1. Wswplz says:

          I root for Jimmie as well kinda by default since I went with my friend to a few races in Fontana ( hot passes) and was fortunate to hang out with him and Chandra on a few occasions. Really nice guy, although I have always liked Jr.

  19. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    After church we worked in the yard – still cleaning up from the pre-Christmas ice storm. We just got back from a nice family bike ride. So many people out enjoying this beautiful day. Grill is fired up. Life is good.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Invite ME I will bing the Brats and the Ice Tea, you provide the bake beans and the potato salad.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Nice Jack. Love that song.

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Love it Jack.

  20. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Detroit Tigers are 5-0,what a way to start your season. It was another close game. GO TIGERS

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      They are actually now 4-1.

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        I thought they won today 7 to 6, close game.

      2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        You are right. The site where I check the scores didn’t have a update/today score I thought was from Saturday. Tigers are doing good.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          They are. What’s interesting is that Porcello is the only starting pitcher with a win so far.

        2. They’re 4-1. Lost 3-1 today and won 7-6 yesterday.

  21. What a nice day it was today! temperatures got up into the mid-upper 50′s and it was nothing but sunshine! I don’t know if many of you noticed but there is now some green growth beginning on the forest floor in some woods as well as my lawn is beginning to really start to green up. With this upcoming week with some rain and temps in the 50′s it should green up even more. Also to note, many trees are now starting to bud

  22. Cliff(KZOO) says:

    Nice day to work on the tan outside. Beautiful weather today folks!!!

  23. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We made it all the way up to our average high here today. Also, we only have patches of snow now, with an outline of snow piles around our driveway. All the snow should be gone except for drifts and piles by next weekend.

  24. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Tornado watches out for atleast 50% of the state of Louisiana and the border along Texas.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      WOW, good size area. I know on the news they were showing areas that has been hit hard by these severe storms. In a few weeks, we will start getting our fare share of severe storms.

  25. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Anyone looking for the Nascar race, it’s postponed until 12 noon tomorrow.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I hope it’s on Fox 17.

      1. Steven(DerbyLake) says:

        Yes its on local fox

    2. Wswplz says:

      Thanks for the heads up.

  26. Mr.Positive says:

    Daffodils are finally going to start blooming at the end of this week :)

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I hope so, I need to see signs of

  27. Jack says:

    Just a QUICK ” Heads UP” ( literally ) ! Clouds PERMITTING …. Here is Flyovers of The ISS….For Tonight and The Very near Future….HAPPY VIEWING GANG… Date Visible Max Height Appears Disappears Share Event
    Fri Apr 4, 9:30 PM < 1 min 12° 10 above S 12 above S  
    Sat Apr 5, 8:43 PM 2 min 11° 10 above SSE 10 above ESE  
    Sat Apr 5, 10:17 PM 2 min 28° 10 above SW 28 above SW  
    Sun Apr 6, 9:28 PM 5 min 51° 10 above SW 26 above ENE  
    Sun Apr 6, 11:05 PM < 1 min 13° 11 above W 13 above WNW  
    Mon Apr 7, 8:39 PM 6 min 29° 10 above SSW 11 above ENE  
    Mon Apr 7, 10:16 PM 4 min 40° 10 above W 33 above NNE  
    Tue Apr 8, 9:27 PM 6 min 62° 10 above WSW 11 above NE  
    Tue Apr 8, 11:06 PM < 1 min 18° 17 above NW 18 above NNW  
    Wed Apr 9, 8:40 PM 4 min 79° 44 above SW 11 above ENE  
    Wed Apr 9, 10:17 PM 2 min 24° 23 above NW 16 above NNE  
    Thu Apr 10, 9:28 PM 3 min 31° 30 above NW 10 above NE  
    Thu Apr 10, 11:05 PM < 1 min 17° 16 above NNW 17 above NNW  
    Keep L@@King UP…. God Bless …….STAY CUEDD……………………………………………………………,,,,,,, :-)

    1. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

      That’s the space station that we have to bum rides from our “Friends” the Russians right? Because NASA has been reduced to being an arm of the Obama propaganda machine, instead of being on the cutting edge of space travel as it once was.

      1. Jack says:

        Agree 100 percent NED…… !!!

  28. GunLakeDeb says:

    This was an awesome day!! Got old leaves raked; perennials cleaned up; branches picked up – basically all the stuff I didn’t get done before winter set it…LOL!! It got all the way up to 40 at our house – woohoo!!!! While the ice is off the SW corner of Gun Lake, the open water is still cold. Migrating birds are coming through. Lots of fishermen were out in boats. Lots of motorcycles riding around, too.

    But those outlooks, warning of below-normal temps in our future should probably be heeded. I can see how everyone is in a “manic state” to get stuff planted, etc….. but this is clearly too early.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I have been guility of planting too early. Memorial Day weekend is when we plant flowers, etc.outdoors. Few years back, we held off until June to plant, because of a cold month of May. Down in the southern states, Good Friday/Easter is garden planting weekend.

    2. Wswplz says:

      Yes it is amazing how excited I get when we hit 50 or even 40 degrees seems nice. I can remember 2 years ago while living on the west coast where it dropped below 50 about as often as we get over 50. Old man winter has definitely made himself known and he doesn’t want to exit the building for good just yet. I really really really want to see some thunder storms. When I look and see these storms firing off down in the southern states I begin to get excited , but I just don’t see much in our near future in that regard. Let’s hope the second half of April will provide at least one good storm as I don’t want to wait until May to see my first storm. I’ve been concerned for some time that we might not see our first good storm until late April / early May and it looks to be the case more and more. Plz boomers come to Michigan…..I think it’s time to loose the WSWplz as I think it’s sending mixed signals to the convective storm gods.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I hate to burst your “storm bubble” ;-) but the Lake Michigan Storm Shredder often sucks the “oomph” out of storms coming from the west (or WSW – which can also create the famous “Bubble” where storms split and go N of GR, and S….)

        1. Wswplz says:

          Yes , I know the shedder all to well , but you know that the WSW stands for winter storm warning plz ,( at least that’s the meaning I intended) maybe I’m missing what you are saying, because if I’m reading you correct west south west , using that as a meaning would be another reason to change my name as well right? Basically I’m saying winter storm warning would not help with spring storms. Lol.

  29. Maggie Martin NW GR says:

    This is semi-weather related question. What can cause my concrete slab to raise about 2 inches overnight? This just happened to my driveway last night. I have a double driveway and one side is now 2 inches higher than the other. We had a very hard and brutal winter. My yard is all clay underneath and topped off with about six inches of black dirt. I believe the area I live in was also used to mine gypsum so naturally I am worried about sink holes. I checked the US geological site for any minor earthquakes and none have been reported. We have a “monitoring well” on one side of our house that is highly saturated from run off and we have a sub pump. I am clueless what the monitoring well is or does. Should I be concerned for possible sink holes and any ideas of what could cause my driveway to raise 2 inches?

  30. Wswplz says:

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect from April 6, 11:04 PM CDT until April 6, 11:45 PM CDT. Flash Flood Warning in effect from April 6, 10:34 PM CDT until April 7, 12:30 AM CDT. Tornado Watch in effect from April 6, 06:55 PM CDT until April 7, 03:00 Hazardous Weather Outlook

    * I would like to see an outlook like this one , of course no major flooding or damage. *

    1. Jack says:

      STWplz…… Coming Soon ?? Lol…. Stay CUED…WSWplz…. ;-) . ;-)

      1. Wswplz says:

        Lol…either that or I’m just going with my name or both. Hehe. We need some storms! Tornado warning, link below..

        1. Jack says:

          PHOTO of The Day from Aurora B. LINK Here , Enjoy and Have Marvelous MONDAY…. :::: Stay Cued……………”…. ;-)

        2. Wswplz says:

          That pic has to be one of my favorites , so beautiful as I would like to see something like that one day. Thanks Jack , great photo! :)

        3. Wswplz says:

          Now here is a healthy list of SVR weather conditions. Wowzers!

          Flood Warning in effect from April 7, 11:00 AM CDT until April 10, 01:00 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning in effect from April 6, 10:34 PM CDT until April 7, 12:30 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning in effect from April 6, 11:36 PM CDT until April 7, 12:30 AM CDTTornado Warning is in effect until April 7, 12:30 AM CDTSevere Weather Statement is in effect Tornado Watch in effect from April 6, 06:55 PM CDT until April 7, 03:00 AM CDTFlash Flood Watch is in effect until April 7, 07:00 AM CDTHazardous Weather Outlook

  31. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Good night everyone, Monday will be a better day.

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