Monday – Rain, Local Flooding, Colder

April 13th, 2014 at 3:45 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   First this message from the GRR NWS:  ” I just got this from Jim Maczko, our Warning Coordination Meteorologist:  Based on photographic evidence, radar data, video and media, Emergency damage assessments – damage caused by the storm on April 12th in Muskegon, Newaygo, Kent (other counties impacted by the same storm) was the result of straight-line wind damage equivalent to EF-0 on the Wind Damage Scale. We estimate from witness reports we have seen/heard, the strongest wind lasted between 3 and 5 minutes and peaked at an estimated 75-85 mph for a large portion of that 3-5 minutes. Damage seen throughout the path of this storm is consistent with what is typically seen from winds gusting to 75 to 85 mph for that long a period of time.”  

Monday  12:50 pm   Model update – snow totals for tonight – first number is NAM caribou and 2nd is GFS caribou:  Grand Rapids 2.3″, 0.9″…Lansing 2.7″, 3.1″…Jackson 2.5″, 3.4″…Muskegon 0.6″, 0.6″…Mt. Pleasant 2.4″, 2.8″…Big Rapids 0.5″, 1.1″…Pontiac 1.8″, 6.0″.

  Grand Rapids is down from 62° to 39° since 6 am.  Peak gusts:  48 mph G.R., 45 mph Ionia and Holland, 40 mph Muskegon and Holland.   There is still a chance of a shower south of a line from Saugatuck to G.R. to Alma.  It’s snowing (visibility 3/4 mi. at Ludington with a temp. of 32°.  Moderate to heavy snow is falling up at Frankfort.   Pentwater has had 5.5″ of rain in the last 48 hours, 5.42″ SW of Fremont, 4.87″ Hart, 4.87″ Big Rapids, 4.25″ was reported in Scottville, 4.24″ Croton,  3.62″ in Summit Twp./Mason Co. where there was wind damage, 3.96″ Newaygo, 1.76″ Sparta.  Some evacuations along the Muskegon and Manistee Rivers and along Lake Mitchell in Cadillac.  The Muskegon River is higher than it was last spring.  The river is expected to rise another 4-5″ at Croton.  There are many roads either closed or that have water going over them from Oceana and N. Newaygo Co. almost up to Traverse City  Very cold air coming…it’s 22° with a strong north wind at Houghton.  The puddles are all going to freeze this evening.  Plus, we have a little shot of light snow (maybe an inch) that will ice up roads this evening/tonight.  Much of the U.P. has had 3-6″ of new snow.  Snow depth is back up to 34″ at Grand Marais, 25″ Munising and 20″ at Marquette (airport).  We again have record ice for this date on both Lake Michigan and the Great Lakes combined.  Consumers Power update:  44, 794 without power.  Here’s the percent of customers in each county without power:  Montcalm 21.6%, Mecosta 21.3%, Muskegon 8.3%, Newaygo 8.1%, Oceana 5.5%, Kent 1.9%.   Here’s  Grand Rapids radar and regional radar.  Rain/Showers, mostly AM – may change to a flurry late.  Temps. will be falling.   We go to -14°C at 850mb by Tues. AM – that’s cold for mid-April!  Fortunately, it’s a quick shot of the cold and temps. warm back up closer to average by Weds. PM/Thurs.   Flood Warnings continue for Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Montcalm, Mecosta, Isabella, Mason, Lake, Osceola, Clare  and Gratiot Counties.  Flood Advisories are in effect for Mason, Lake, Osceola and Clare Counties.  Flood Warnings have now been posted for the Grand River at Comstock Park (expected to go to 12.5 feet – half a foot above flood stage and the Pere Mqt. River at Scottville, expected to go to 6.5 feet or 1 foot above flood stage.  We also continue to Flood Watch.   Water is topping the dam at Barryton on the Chippewa River and water is being released, causing significant rises to the river downstream. Pretty much unrelated to the rain that’s been mostly north of I-96, there is a Flood Warning for the Portage River at Vicksburg which is near Flood Stage.  Muskegon, Newaygo and Oceana Co. all reports some roads are underwater.   Check river levels here.

Peak gust 57 mph Muskegon, 49 mph Alma, 43 mph Fremont, 38 mph Big Rapids.  It looks like there were many spots from Muskegon Co. east that had winds of 60-90 mph.  Rainfall as of Sunday AM:  4.00″ Fremont, 3.82″ Montague, 3.48″ Hersey, 3.6″ Ferry, 3.46″ Ludington, 3.36″ Pentwater, 3.18″, Big Rapids, 2.78″ Harrison, 2.78″ Clare, 2.63″ Newaygo, 2.5″ Vestaburg, 2.44″ Leota, 2.41″ Grant, 2.18″ Wellston,  2.17″, 2.02″ Lake City, 2.02″ Cadillac,  Baldwin, 1.77″ Shepherd,  1.67″ Mt. Pleasant, 1.53″ Houghton Lake, 1.25″ Comstock Park, 1.00 Breckenridge, 0.74″ Nunica, 0.72″ Spring Lake, 0.30″ Holland.    Here’s the percent of each county without power (Consumers Energy) as shortly after midnight Monday:  Total without power 44,000 (down from 101,000).  Percent without power:  Mecosta 36%, Montcalm 23%, Muskegon and Newaygo both 11%, Oceana 6%, Kent 2%.      Leave a comment if you get any severe weather or if you can leave a rainfall total, we’d appreciate that.  Here’s the WOOD closing list.  Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, which is pretty good.  Here’s storm reports from West Michigan. Lots of links below.   Here’s a roof blown across a road.   Michigan is in the General Thunderstorm Outlook for late this PM and tonight.

Model update:  All models have the bulk of the rain out of here by around 9 am.  The NAM has 2.3″ of snow for G.R. Monday night and the GFS-plot has around an inch (probably better).  Things freeze up Monday night – so watch for icy roads.  Tuesday’s going to be a cold day.  Both the NAM (car.) and GFS-plot have afternoon temps. Tues. in the low 30s…then upper 40s Weds. and upper 50s  Thurs.  There’s still 21% ice on Lake Michigan.  There’s still a 45% ice cover on the Great Lakes (mostly Lake Superior).  Here’s North American snow cover.   Here’s the GFS snowfall forecast .

The NAM model is still trying to print out a band of 2-5″ of snow from Coldwater to Flint Monday evening/night.  The U.P. gets another snowstorm.   Snow cover this Sun. AM was down to 30″ at Calumet, 27″ at Mohawk, 22″ at Munising, 19″ Newberry, 18″ Big Bay, 17″ Marquette (airport), 11″ S. Ste. Marie, 6″ in the woods at Gaylord.  Here’s the Snowman Cam at Krupp’s Resort in the U.P.

Could be the latest spring freeze ever over parts of N. Texas.   Lightning over Lake Michigan Sat. Night.   At 7 PM – Denver, CO is 24°, heavy snow, wind gusting to 35 mph.  Yesterday they were 76°.   At 4 pm Sunday, the average temperature of the Lower 48 states was 59° – nine degrees cooler than it was 24 hours ago.   Snowstorm in Nebraska.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s the morning run of the NAM forecast snow amounts. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. We continue to watch for ice jams on Michigan rivers. Here’s Closings.

Also – Wildfire consumes 2,000 homes in Chile.  The fire has left 12 dead and dozens injured.  A State of Emergency remains in effect.

446 Responses to “Monday – Rain, Local Flooding, Colder”

  1. fred says:

    I guess I’m concerned that no one saw this type of storm coming……all the models and no hint? Maybe that farmer out in Ravenna could have given a warning earlier in the day when he sniffed the air….. better than all the models.

    1. Jacob G. says:

      Warm fronts are always the trickiest to predict and can also have the biggest surprises. Most severe weather here near the lakeshore comes from warm fronts or MCS type events. I am too a bit concerned why this was not picked up as well, coming from a software engineer background. Lot to review and learn from this event. I am up here in Kent City and we just got our power back up and running. When I saw the radar returns on Saturday we were on the southern flank of the storms and that is sometimes where the most severe weather can occur as that area is riding along the most unstable air mass and wind drafts.

    2. Cort S. says:

      In addition to what Jacob G said about warm fronts, this is also a problem that deals with storm-scale dynamics, which is too small of a domain for most models to deal with. The severe threat forecast was not zero on Saturday, but it wasn’t expected to be widespread or intense enough to warrant a slight risk or a watch. The severe weather wasn’t a big surprise, but the enhanced intensity and longevity of a couple of those storms was. Whatever caused a couple of those storms to morph from a relatively innocuous hail-making blob north of the warm front into a well-balanced squall line is a challenging question to answer.

  2. INDY says:

    IT’S SNOWING OUT THEE YARDofBRICKS…..WOW……INDYY!!

    1. Jack says:

      CRAP,,,Say it ain’t SOOOO Joe…..( Indy) ps. Give Uncle yak,YACK .a Call ! At Thee YARofCUES…Plz .and Thank You.. ;-)

    2. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

      Here too :(

    3. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

      Snowing here!! Rooftops are turning white fast!

  3. bluegill says:

    I was in Valparaiso Chile in October. Very hilly and the access to the hills is quite limited. All firefighters in Chile are volunteer and don’t get paid. They even buy their own firefighting clothes and much of the equipment. They take tremendous pride in their work though and are quite skilled. Hopefully the fire can be put out soon as Valparaiso is quite a historic and colorful city. Kind of the San Francisco of Chile.

  4. Scott (Belmont) says:

    Is Grand Rapids going to pick up more than and inch of snow? Will the roads be slippery in the morning? Will there be any school closings?

    1. Jack says:

      NO, Maybe, and NO….stay Cued..

      1. Scott (Belmont) says:

        Thanks

      2. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        +1 ;)

  5. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The GFS has a consecutive number of days of 60 or higher starting next week, looks like we could finally be done with the 40′s after these next couple days! :)

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Don’t bet on us being done with the 40′s just yet. Last year there were multiple days in June that barely made the 50′s. I would say we will done with the 30′s for highs after tomorrow though.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Shhhh lol, were done, were done, were done (I hope at least) but your right I shouldn’t bet that were done quite yet. We will still get lows in the 30′s and 40′s though so I guess the 40′s won’t be done until daytime and night time temperatures are out of the 40′s for good.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I like your spirit, John. :-)

  6. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    34° and flurries here…all I need is 0.6″ of snow tonight to make 150″ for the seasonal total.

  7. Got a light dusting of snow already on my deck with a current temperature of 35 degrees. Far cry from yesterday when I was 67!

  8. Tomorrow (April 15) will go down as my coldest high temperature of the day so far this month and we may even break the old record. My forecasted high tomorrow is 35 and that will beat the old record of 36 set back in the 1800′s!

    1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

      Our deck/picnic table is white as well, and its now down to 33°.

  9. Matt (Spring Lake) says:

    Snow has been coming down here for the past 2 hours. It is coming down heavily, and we are nearing an inch already. When that heavy banding hits your area, it comes down hard!

  10. INDY says:

    Snowing very hard out thee YARDofBRICKS don’t ever remember it snowing so hard on April 14th it has to be a record !!!! We should be in the 60′s right now !! INDYY!!

  11. shelbyville says:

    The roads are going to very slick in the morning. With ground temps in the 40° range, a couple of inches of snow and overnight temps in the mid 20′s = icy roads…

  12. Anna says:

    We have like a inch on the ground already and it’s been snowing for 2 hours. It’s snowing so hard that my German Shepard that is all black came in looking like a Abominable snow monster

    1. Scott (Belmont) says:

      What is your location?

Leave a Reply