Cooler Today and Early Next WeekApril 22nd, 2014 at 2:36 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
This is the Thunderstorm Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for 4/23 (Weds.). The main threat looks like hail, though strong winds and an isolated tornado or two are also possible. Looks like another snowstorm goes over Lake Superior. Here’s the NAM and GFS snow predictions for Lake Superior. The models have afternoon temps. in the upper 40s today and mid 50s on Weds. The NAM (car.) gives G.R. .02″ of rain Thurs. AM and 0.29″ Thurs. evening. The GFS (car.) gives G.R. 0.08″ Thurs. AM and 0.38″ Thurs. evening/night. The GFS-plot is almost frigid for early next week, with afternoon temps. only in the low 40s Sunday and temps. most of Monday only in the 30s. The GFS-plot also says we’ll have at least a chance of a little light mix with the cold air, which could include a period of sleet or even wet snow! The model has lows in the upper 20s (a freeze) next Monday am. I’m not staying up for the European tonight. Look at the Jamstec model forecast for next winter. It has a weak-moderate El Nino centered in the Central Pacific with a Storm Track on average a touch east of Michigan and lots of cold. This would be reminiscent of the winter of 1977-78, which followed the cold winter of 1976-77. Grand Rapids high of 78 on Monday was warmer than Daytona Beach (73), Orlando (73), Tampa (75), New Orleans (76), Galveston (76), and Molokai Airport/Hawaii (76). It was cooler to the north with highs of 45 at Mackinac Is. and Escanaba and 46 at Cheboygan. Winter wheat crop diminished by cold and snowy winter. The picture on the right is from the NWS in Grand Jct. CO. It’s a snow measurement taken 4/1 at Buffalo Pass Co. They measured a snow depth of 196″ (16′ 4″). That’s 64″ above the average snow depth there for April 1.
Sea Ice Update April 20, 2014 – Global Sea Ice 1.05 million sq km Above Normal – Antarctic Sea Ice 42nd Daily Record. Great Lakes ice at 2,000% of average! Lowest # of tornadoes from Jan. 1 – April 21 ever. Hurricane events also low – ACE Index at lowest level in over 35 years.