Severe Weather

April 23rd, 2014 at 1:06 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

day1otlk_1300 day48probDAY2   No severe weather here in Michigan.  We’ll have a nice afternoon.  We started the day on a chilly note, with low temps. of 32 in G.R., 31 in Kalamazoo and Battle Creek, 29 in Kent City and Sparta, 27 at Baldwin.  It got down to 18 at Iron Mt. and Kenton in the U.P. and 17 at Paulding.  At least the winds have died down.  With the help of a strong, late April sun – we’ll see temperatures head into the 50s this afternoon.  These are the Severe Weather Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center for this afternoon (Weds.), Thurs. and for Day 4, Day 5 and 6 (the weekend/Monday).    There will be severe storms today in the Plains from Nebraska down to N. Texas.  The green General Thunderstorm Outlook comes up to the edge of Lake Michigan on Thurs. – showers are more likely here, downwind from a chilly Lake Michigan.  Then, over the weekend, we’ll see more severe weather in the Plains from KS and SW MO down to North Texas and eastward.  The severe stuff will stay to our south.  Here’s the U.S. severe weather reports for Tuesday.  There were no tornadoes, just one marginal hail report and 18 wind damage/strong wind reports – including several from NE Idaho.

Also, check out the sideways view of the Earth’s atmosphere from the Intl. Space Station…also from NASA Earth – A thin, crescent moon with Earthshine…and check out this shot of fog at Niagara Falls.

One week until May and more snow is on the way for the U.P.   The high temperature Tues. was just 34 at Spincich Lake and Grand Marais, Munising reached only 35.  As of Tues. evening, there’s still 25″ of snow on the ground at Hoist Basin, 23″ at Mohawk, 19″ just southeast of Houghton, 17″ at Munising and 6″ at Marquette (airport).

The NAM (car.) gives G.R. a high of 55 today (Weds.), 60 on Thu. and 62 on Fri…along with 1/3rd inch of rain Thurs. night.  I’m tired…not staying up for the European.  More later today.

37 Responses to “Severe Weather”

  1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I just like the fact that we are seeing SVR weather outlooks 4,5,6 days out , as it won’t be to long until we see the storms sliding north , I would think by June – July we should be well on are way. Thanks Bill for posting the outlooks , keep the good news coming. :)

  2. INDY says:

    Another below normal day in Michigan!! Can’t ever remember it being so cold in late April!! Winter wants to stay!! Have a sprite today !! INDYY!!

  3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    I’ve only had 3 below average days in the past 12. Looks like we stay pleasant until Saturday.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      And only 11 of your 22 days this month have been above average.

  4. Outlook areas have been expanded in the plains. Looks more promising than yesterday

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Kyle – at the risk of sounding like your Mom:
      I follow Reed Timmer, and he’s saying these could be VERY strong storms. I know you want to chase….. but please promise ALL of us you’ll be careful?? Stay far, far away and carry a telephoto lens :-) We want you back here to tell us all about it!

  5. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

    Man, WZZM shows highs in the low forties for most of next week. I hope that they are wrong!

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Fox 17 has the worst forecast.

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        WZZM is 13 not 17. And there are some indications there could be a snow storm some where in our general area at that time so that guess may not be that fall off.
        SlimJim

        1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

          What I was really saying Fox 17 is worst than WZZM 13.

    2. Mike (southeast Berrien county) says:

      Wow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see snow mixed in if it turns out to be that cool!

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        In fact some models are showing a great lakes area snow storm at that time
        SlimJim

  6. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Welcome back Bill. It’s a little chilly this morning. Looks like the only storms we can watch are in the Great Plains. I am sure, one day soon, the severe storms will move into west Michigan. Everyone have a wonderful Hump Day.

  7. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Some hump day thoughts. First the good news after today in GR there has never been a low temp colder then 21 (until fall) Of course that could change this year! Any idea as to where we stand as to an average green up? Bill with your anniversary being yesterday you should reference point. I would say we are running at least two weeks behind average. But maybe not in Flint where for some reason its been the warmest compared to average in the state of Michigan. (+1.3°)
    Now looking ahead while the next few days look to be near average we then turn colder for the end of April and at least the start of May, In fact a case can be made that we still may see some (maybe a lot) of snow yet!!! Stay tuned on that one. And of course just for fun looking at the Acc-u–less 45 day long range guess there are still no 70° days listed (for GR) until June and no 80° days for the whole 45 days!
    SlimJim

    1. Mike (southeast Berrien county) says:

      A lot of snow? Which model is suggesting that?

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        The ECMFW total 240hr snow fall shows the snow in Lower Michigan while the control run shows it more to our NW, While in all likely hood it will not happen we very well could see some snow around May 1-2
        SlimJim

  8. INDY says:

    That snow storm would make I travass run away with his warm temps!! Sprite it up!! INDYY!!

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      If indeed that snow storm did happen it would make a lot of people run for some (Sprites)
      SlimJim

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      And it would make Assdyy talk all kinds of nonsense. Not that it’s unusual for Assdyy to talk nonsense.

  9. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    In a big reversal from yesterday, WeatherTrends is currently showing a significant, steady warm up beginning early May in which temps rise from the upper 50′s to lower 80′s by May 7th.

    We’ll have to see how things play out. Models are all over the place.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I like this long range forecast.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        I concur.

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Is that warm up going to be as strong as the one we currently are seeing , if so no thanks , as I recall similar predictions for this week. I’m rooting for warmth and storms , however I’m just enjoying the sun at this point , as this weather is great for excercise.

  10. GunLakeDeb says:

    24 degrees at Gun Lake this morning – but sunshine makes it all worthwhile :-)

  11. GunLakeDeb says:

    Here’s an Earth Day word (OK – a day late): “perch”. Many of our roads that cross small streams utilize round corrugated culverts. During high water, these culverts can create forceful jets of water, which tend to scour the banks on the downstream side and cause erosion called perching. Not only does the erosion ruin fish habitat; but perching can create a stair-step situation where fish can’t travel past the culverts. The DEQ/DNR is replacing heavily-perched road crossing with open box culverts, which stop that erosion process :-)

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Just learn something new today. Thanks for the info.

  12. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Accuweather gives me snow on April 30th into May 1st. Dumb. Oh well, we’re getting used to it.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I can remember when I was in Jr. High School, we had plans for a outdoors project first of May, it was postponed because of a snow storm. The month of May can be crazy also.

  13. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Here is some information on what is looking like a Rex Block , continued from an earlier post I left a few days back:
    GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SUPPORT FOR QUITE A SLOWING AND
    AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LATE APRIL PATTERN. THIS PATTERN OFFERS SEVERAL
    SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM THREATS. ( read full discussion below )
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

    THE CLOSED TROUGH/LOW SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY BE FORCED GRADUALLY
    EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL US NEXT MON-WED DAYS 5-7 IN A
    DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY
    UPSTREAM OVER THE WRN US AND OVERTOP OVER S-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
    ALL OCCURS THEN AS A LEAD NERN US/CANADIAN MARITIME CLOSED LOW
    LOSES INFLUENCE. SLOW WRAPPED SYSTEM TRANSLATION AND INCREASINGLY
    DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THEN WRN ATLANTIC
    SHOULD FUEL A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE AND OVERRUNNING HEAVY RAINFALL
    THREAT SPREADING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL TO ERN US.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Could you explain, I ain’t too smart.

      1. kevin.w says:

        Basically cool and wet.

        1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

          Thanks, I am slowly learning different terms.

      2. Cort S. says:

        I hope Darren doesn’t mind if I steal his thunder. A Rex Block is when you have a large high-pressure system north of a large low-pressure system in the upper levels, where the jet stream is. This blocks the normal west-to-east progression of upper-level waves, so weather systems tend to move slowly or sometimes stall out.

        For the first half of next week, a strong high-pressure system over Hudson Bay and a strong low-pressure system over the central US will form a Rex Block, leading to a multi-day period of unsettled weather across much of the central and eastern US as the low moves slowly to the east. The clockwise flow around the high will drive cold air southward, where it will prevent the warm front from lifting north. The cold air will also get wrapped in behind the low.

        Chilly air for this time of year should make it all the way down to Dixie once the low passes by:
        http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

        This is the same low-pressure system that will be responsible for a multi-day severe weather or tornado outbreak starting this weekend:
        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

        1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

          Thanks for the info. Looks like tornado activity will begin this week/weekend.

        2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Of course not , your explanations are always welcome , plus they ate better than mine anyways . hehe

  14. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

    Ok, I’m going to say it……So far I’m beginning to believe that this summer will be worse than 2009 :-( God I hope I’m wrong and it ends up being spectacular and warm with decent storms but so far I’m losing hope

  15. Imthemom (just n holland) says:

    Saw pic’s dtr took at Tunnel Park Monday. The tunnel has snow drifts in it covered with sand so they are somewhat insulated. We still have a little snow in our barn where the sun can’t get at. Good news, I did see 2 Barn Swallows today. They’re always the last birds to come back and they really are just about on their usual return date.

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