Clouds, Breezy then Wet

April 27th, 2014 at 1:12 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

The first picture is from the lighthouse at S. Haven, where the high temperature of 41.1 deg. occurred at 11 pm.  On the right is a nice pisouth haven glerllake michigan sunset joe gee 4 26 14 muskegoncture of the sunset at Muskegon Saturday evening from Joe Gee.  Click to enlarge.   More clouds than not this Sunday with a brisk east wind.  We’ll be in the 50s during the afternoon.  Look for a mostly or totally dry day (best chc. of a sprinkle will be west of US 131, but the dry air coming in from the east should eat the rain as it tried to move in from the west.   A better bet for showers comes Sunday night and especially Monday.  We’ll have a strong east wind.  Tuesday we may get enough warm air up into S. Lower Michigan for some thunderstorms – sight chance of a severe storm, though the Storm Prediction Center Outlooks as I write this are pretty much Indianapolis south.  I would have drawn the air a little farther north.  The best chance of severe weather will still be south of Michigan.  As I write this, only 8 reports of severe weather on Saturday, mostly hail in N. Texas.  Severe weather ramps up this Sun. afternoon and we’ll have several active days of severe weather from the Plains east to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Overnight model update:  NAM (caribou) has highs for G.R. of 58-53-65 for Sun./Mon./Tue. with no rain Sun. 0.78″ Mon. and 0.28″ Tues.  The GFS plot has highs of 50-48-69-61-47-43-44.  The average high temp. is now 63.  Believe the warmer numbers.  The GFS for G.R. has rain totals of 0.04″ Sunday (may not happen – surface air is dry), 0.64″ Monday, 0.39″ Tuesday, 0.79″ Wednesday, 0.13″ Thursday, 0.13″ Friday and 0.10″ Fri. night into Saturday.  Looks like a wet week.  Busy Sunday for me…I’ll write more Sun. evening.

173 Responses to “Clouds, Breezy then Wet”

  1. GunLakeDeb says:

    TVN is showing live chasers in the Little Rock area – Basehunters has come to a halt – traffic accident or storm damage??

    1. Cort S. says:

      If their video is stuck… it’s probably a crappy wireless data connection.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        No – the cars have come to a halt along the road. Tyler Costantini has a wall cloud in sight?

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Im watching another one sitting in traffic, looking at a lot of damage.

  2. GunLakeDeb says:

    Matt Grantham is stopped for lowered power lines – I think I’m seeing a funnel in his camera?

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      YES! Off in the distance, he’s looking at a large tornado

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Looks like the police are blocking the Mayflower area

  3. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Looks like Batesville,AR is in line for some severe stores. I believe Wal-Mart HQ is located in that town.

    1. Cort S. says:

      You’re thinking of Bentonville.

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        Sorry..

  4. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Titian weather which you could just directly go to , but here is someone talking through some off the storms that have now caused damage and a few were from the radar image I posted about an hour ago or so…..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8MEzZBTGik

  5. Brian (Grandville) says:

    Just saw a storm chaser image of either semi trailers or mobile home trailers mangled in the middle of the road.

    1. Cort S. says:

      The tornado crossed right over I-40 north of Little Rock.

  6. Cort S. says:

    Here is a close-up of the tornado debris radar signature. Radar image from 7:43 pm CDT as the tornado was approaching Vilonia, Arkansas.

    http://i.imgur.com/0npRPLA.jpg

  7. Cort S. says:

    Darren: “Do discrete super-cells support larger more violent tornadoes on average , compared to say that of a QLCS or is there really no delineation to be made ? It seems being quasi- linear in nature could hamper the storm from reaching stronger “rotational velocity ” then say that of a true super-cellular storm. ( mid -level velocity due to the shorter tops QLCS ).”

    Yes, a supercell can produce a tornado of any strength… EF0-EF5.

    A tornado embedded within a line of thunderstorms will usually be an EF0-EF2. Very rarely might one be EF3.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Thanks Cort , also I really enjoyed looking at your radar signatures , really fascinating stuff as far as the science goes. Conversely I’m a bit hesitant to even turn on the News tomorrow as I fear things will not be good and I will definitely keep all those affected in my prayers tonight .

  8. GunLakeDeb says:

    The frustrating thing about watch Chaser video is losing the image…. or, as in the case of a guy who’s getting pretty close to the storm – it’s just too dark to see anything.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Yup, I gave up on them for the night. I like them better when they’re in wide open areas in mid to late afternoon chasing.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I quit watching because I’m a wuss. IMO, there’s no such thing as a “good tornado” – even if it just tears across farmland…some farmer was counting on the sale of that harvest later….

        In the case of a tornado going through a populated area? Too intense / too heartbreaking.

  9. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    I’m impressed that the mets have been talking about this for what, six days? The timing and location of the event was extremely accurate.

    1. Cort S. says:

      Something like that. Here was the Day 4-8 outlook issued on Tuesday April 22.

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/archive/2014/day4-8_20140422.html

      D6 was the prediction for today.

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The tornado has weakened significantly, thank goodness it didn’t go any father!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      *farther* lol

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Never mind, it’s reforming again.

  11. Stephen(North Muskegon) says:

    Looks like a debris ball on radar?

    1. Cort S. says:

      It’s getting far enough away from the radar that it will be harder to see one now. But here was the debris ball on radar as the tornado was approaching Vilonia:

      http://i.imgur.com/0npRPLA.jpg

      1. Cort S. says:

        Actually, as of the latest scan (8:46 pm CDT), I see another debris ball. The radar is scanning it about 4300 ft above ground at this point.

        1. Stephen(North Muskegon) says:

          Cort do you think its possible for another high risk tomorrow? looking pretty volatile

        2. Cort S. says:

          Here is the radar image from 8:46 pm CDT as the NWS issued a tornado emergency for the towns in the path:

          http://i.imgur.com/qhsLVSs.jpg

          I haven’t seen the latest models for tomorrow, but it definitely has big potential to be another multi-tornado day.

  12. Sad to hear the damage reports coming in as well as the 2 deaths in Oklahoma. Praying for the families of the victims as well as for those who may have lost there homes.

    On another note, I still cannot get over that El Reno tornado to this day. Tim Samaras was a great guy who I always liked. He is a role model to me. No matter how much chasing experience you had, that May 31 El Reno tornado outsmarted even the most experienced. Still looking at satellite images from June 2013 you could see the scar of where the path went. I still find it odd that is made a big curve and went back north.

    As I get older I want to study more on tornadoes and how to better predict them. Tim Samaras did awesome work, and that work needs to be completed.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      In my limited understanding of tornadoes – we don’t really understand what triggers the formation of a funnel?? All the ingredients can be there – Lord knows we’ve watched Reed Timmer and others “shoot blue sky” as they say, in Storm Chasers. And yes – what steered the El Reno tornado? Maybe some day, Kyle, you’ll be saving lives. Godspeed, young man!

  13. John (Norton Shores) says:

    TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THIDA AND OIL TROUGH, pulled this off the warning.

    1. Hey John where in Arkansas is your family? Did they get hit at all?

  14. GunLakeDeb says:

    So I was watching a chaser’s camera: he was south of the storm headed north. I’m 90% certain I saw a tornado low on the horizon; then his feed shut off.

    My question: did he simply lose his connection (I’m not even certain how these guys send images) due to communications towers, etc being damaged – or did he shut off his “public view” in order to take video of the tornado that he might be able to sell to a TB station? I’m thinking the latter, because others not far from him still were transmitting?

    1. Stephen(North Muskegon) says:

      Some of them chasers are very greedy. Take reed timmer he usually shuts his stream off and puts his videos on his new web series that you have to pay for to watch. I guess its their video but still…

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        Thanks, Stephen – that’s sort of what I thought? I’ve read Reed’s book; and you can just hear the gears turning in his head when someone first offered him money for some tornado footage. I don’t feel it’s necessarily “greedy” – it’s how they hope to cover their expenses. And it’s probably good; maybe it would discourage a few adrenaline junkies….

  15. Stephen(North Muskegon) says:

    Vilonia, AR fire chief says it is a mass casualty situation – need as many ambulances as possible to EOC, per NWS chat

  16. Stephen(North Muskegon) says:

    WOW Look at this: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10202751062750919&set=o.29348676322&type=2&theater
    That was a MASSIVE wedge that went through

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Yeah – that’s what I saw on that Chaser’s camera before the feed stopped. :-(

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