Monday – Moderate Risk – Slight Risk for Severe up to Chicago

April 27th, 2014 at 12:10 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook   These are the Severe Weather Outlooks and (in green) General Thunderstorm Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.  There is a Moderate Risk Area in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Slight Risk comes close to Chicago.  On Tuesday, there is a Slight Risk Area up into SE Michigan.

Take a look at the severe weather reports for Friday (about 80 of them).   SPC did a very good job – their Slight Risk Area really fit the severe reports.  Confirmed tornado on the ground near Washington NC.  There was one fatality.  There was a Tornado Watch out for much of N. Carolina and southern Virginia. There is a large area included in Slight Risk Area for Saturday from W. Iowa to the Rio Grande and we have a Moderate Risk for Sunday.   At this point, I don’t see any severe weather in Michigan in the coming week and the best chance of a thunderstorm here would probably be Tues. PM/Night. 

Storm Team 8 will be tracking the system. Check the blog for updates from me and the astute, knowledgeable commentators who fortunately for me occasionally hold court here in my little corner of cyberspace even when I’m not here.


64 Responses to “Monday – Moderate Risk – Slight Risk for Severe up to Chicago”

  1. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    It is April 25th right? It is currently 45° with a wind chill of 39°. Brrrr!

    1. Ian (Jenison) says:

      No kidding =( And it said a high of 60!! Hope the sun makes an appearance!
      Although the grass is growing along nice *cheer*

  2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I love the thread Bill , glad we have some SVR weather to watch , soon we will have our season. ( not too SVR of course ) :)

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      +1…one day soon.

      1. Jack says:

        ” Some Day SOON”……..Cue, Judy Collins :::::: He,,,heeee….stay Cued & Happy FRYDAY….

  3. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Monday morning they will be putting in our new furnace. They don’t come too cheap. Glad the furnace went out now, than during the winter. It’s been a little chilly last couple of mornings.

    1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

      “Monday morning they will be putting in our new furnace.”

      Well that’s a coincidence. I just found out about an hour ago that I need a new furnace, too. It will be replaced Monday morning. Like you, I’m glad it didn’t go out during the severe cold weather. At least I won’t have to stay in a motel for the next three nights and worry about freezing water pipes.

      So anyway, no heat from a furnace until Monday.

      Plus, my water softener just died. I have hard, rusty water. So that is another expense next week.

      And then on top of that, the paint job I hired someone to do on my ceilings just didn’t work. It just didn’t seal. It’s a spotty mess. So I am going to try to do it myself. Which is as appealing to me as a root canal.

      There’s an old saying that trouble comes in three’s. Well, that’s my three. I hope.

      There was one thing that went well for me today. I was able to hook up one of my favorite journalists with a truly *great* resource in Vietnam. With the indispensable help of my daughter. I will look forward to his reporting about his trip.

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        The water heater will be the next thing to be replace, I am sure before next winter.

      2. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Some water softeners have a filter on them that you are suppose to clean periodically.

        1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

          Thank you for your input, steven. I read something about that – filters. (I don’t know jack about softeners.)

          I have decided to contact an independent for the softener, not a chain like Culligan. I suspect that independents might be more trustworthy than chains because they probably live and die by their reputations, word of mouth, alone. I have found that to be true with quite a number of services and products.

          I moved into my place four years ago and had heating and plumbing problems from the start. I first contacted a heating chain and I not only rejected them, but I caused them a real problem with their reputation. They called me and apologized.

          Anyways, I now have an independent heating/cooling guy and plumber that I fully trust. If anything, I kinda feel like they *undercharge* me. I am regularly surprised at their low prices and good service.

          But independents are not always the way to go. About ten years ago, I joined an importing firm and quickly discovered that an independent computer guy had really screwed up the company’s hardware and software. But it was fairly cheap and easy to fix. We called another independent who fixed it.

          So, anyways, I guess it’s a matter of doing one’s homework. Get on the Internet and check reputations, other people’s experiences.

          I don’t think I explained that very well.

        2. GunLakeDeb says:

          Dikehopper – I’ve had great service from Maynard’s Water softening out of Caledonia. We needed “smaller media” (the little beads) to take the tannins in our water out. Their softener works SO much better than the original one from a big box retailer! (I’m not affiliated with Maynards in any way other than being a happy customer)

    2. Mike (Mattawan) says:

      I actually had to replace our furnace about two months ago. Definitely an expensive appliance!

  4. mr. negative says:

    Another 90 days of storm free cold…

  5. Jack says:

    The Sky’s Have Cleared Nicely on This FRYday Afternoon, And There is nothing but ” Blue Sky”….. CUE , Willie Nelson ::: ;-) . Stay Cued………………… ;-)

  6. INDY says:

    Severe Weather What is that?? Drinking more sprites on this Friday night!! INDYY!!

    1. Jack says:

      Land sakes Alive it’s April 25!!!! 1 month AWAY from MAY 25….. And The YARDofBRICKS PARTY !!! Hey, Bill Steffen….U gonna Be There This YEAR ????? Hope SO……stayin CUEDD……. ;-)

    2. Jack says:

      Indy here is a Tune for Thee YARDofBRICKS on This FRYday nite of SPRITES ..CHEERS & CUE,,,,, CANNED Heat,,,, Turn it UP…YOB…..stay CueDDDDDDD….. ;-)

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        When is the next IndyCar Racing on TV?

      2. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        I HATE that song Jack. lol I can’t believe I waited for the lyrics to start. smh :)

        This is more style. ;)

        1. Jack says:

          Steven ( DL)…. In the Words of My Late Grandma….” You shouldn’t HATE anything, Do You Mean ” Strongly DISLIKE ? “” Lol…. And nice HWjr. TUNE….. Stay CueDDD,,,,, and Happy ” FRY”"day…. Puff,puff……PASS….. Cough,,cough… ;-)

        2. Jack says:

          My Style “Fry”day CUE :::: He,,heeeeee…Stay CUED

  7. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The sun is out, wish it was summer. Other wise I am HAPPY,HAPPY,HAPPY. Maybe I can grill out this weekend.

  8. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Tornado warning for Halifax county North Carolina.

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      Also eastern Amelia County in central Virginia, west central Chesterfield County in central Virginia, southeastern Powhatan County in central Virginia

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Tornado warning for Wayne county North Carolina

  9. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Tigers @ 8 in Minnesota, is there snow on the ground???

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    NWS raised temperatures for next Tuesday up into the mid 60′s now, I thought it wasn’t even supposed to hit 50 next week? I will gladly take the 60′s! :)

  11. Jack says:

    RIP..EARL MORRAL…. :-( . !!!

  12. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Winds have really picked up here. Got some whitecaps on the lake. It was nice and calm this morning.

  13. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looking at next weeks weather conditions and temps it looks like early summer conditions for Alaska. That’s right with some days near or in the 60’s and then cloudy and wet with temps in the 50’s during the day and near 40 at night just like parts of Alaska in the summer. Of course with that kind of temps and rain it will make the grass grow so we will soon have to get the lawn mowers out and ready.

  14. Jack says:

    Hello BILL: Very UNIQUE TIE…Is it NEW? Staying CUED… Our FRIEND…..! Jack + Irene…. :-)

  15. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Sun , sun , sun ,sun …. I like the sun , done ! :)

  16. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    I am going way out on this: Tuesday of next week, parts of west Michigan will be in the slight risk for severe storms. The temp.for Tuesday near 70°, severe storms to our south. This is the reason why I am saying slight risk. Tonight on NBC they were saying this weekend until next Wednesday severe storms across the country. I hope and pray people in these storm areas will keep close watch of the weather. I plan on keeping close watch on these storms this weekend.

    1. Cort S. says:

      It’s possible. That’s something to watch for sure. The latest models have been bringing the warm air a bit farther north for Tuesday. Could be a “See Text” (5%) or a low-end Slight (15%) creeping into Michigan if that huge, slow-moving low-pressure system in the middle of the country evolves in just the right way. Big multi-day severe weather outbreak setting up for Dixie.

      1. Cort S. says:

        By the way, this graphic shows where SPC is thinking the higher-end Slight risk (30%) line will be for Monday and Tuesday:

        It’s likely that parts of these areas will see at least a Moderate risk.

      2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        A lot of homes down in Dixie don’t have basements.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          That red clay is a problem from OK and Texas east to Georgia. I talked to a builder who built a good basement in OK – he had to make a hole about 3 times the size of the basement and fill it with dirt trucked in from N. Kansas – then put drains and pumps to take out rainwater. It was 40K extra to do it and I thought that was cheap.

        2. GunLakeDeb says:

          I don’t have a basement due to a high water table. When we moved here full time, we had a “cement closet” built in our garage. Poured concrete 8″ thick over rebar drilled down into the garage floor. There are other homes in the area, that while being built, made a walk-in Master bedroom closet from concrete; or a laundry room….

          And I just saw something on TV – one of the schools that was recently hit by a tornado, created a storm shelter out of freight containers buried into the side of a hill!!! Cheap, strong, and reasonably safe!!

    2. I hope you’re right Larry. Although I never want damage to homes or harm to people, I would love a good storm…as I’m sure we all would :) The weather is just boring me right now…

  17. Jack says:

    Weather for The TIGERS @ Twins Game Tonight HERE : Latest Conditions at Target Field
    A Few Clouds
    61° F
    (37° F)
    Temp: 61° F
    DewPt: 37° F
    RH: 43%
    Wind: 13 MPH from the Northwest
    Wind Gust: 24 MPH
    GO!!! TIGERS…..Stay CueDDDDDDDDDDD……. ;-)

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:


    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Nome Alaska looks lovely!!

  18. Cort S. says:

    Anatomy of a viral extreme weather post:

  19. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    My my, hey hey, ROCK n ROLL will never die baby!

    1. matt says:

      Rock n roll is dead warm weather will be here soon who knew imagine that

  20. Mr. Negative says:

    2014 Winter Predictions – Grand Rapids Press

    Mark Torregrossa – MLive – 100 inches
    Rick Mecklenburg – WXMI – 95 inches
    Keith Thompson – WWMT – 82 inches
    Bill Marino – NWS – 80 inches
    George Lessens – WZZM – 75 inches
    Bill Steffen – WOOD – 74 inches

    Predictions…all in good fun

      1. mr. negative says:


    1. Cort S. says:

      Any meteorologist that could have seen the “Great North American Dipole” pattern coming would be reaping all the accolades right now!

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        LOL!! I hope someone with that much clairvoyancy was also buying lottery tickets!

    2. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      I added those up and took the average. Came out to 80 inches. When was the 80 inch mark broken?

      1. Cort S. says:

        For GRR… February 1

  21. Cort S. says:

    Impressive bookend vortex on the north end of this squall line in N.C.:

    Reminds me of sticking a canoe paddle in the water and making little water-tornadoes spin off the sides.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      WOW cool image.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:


  22. DF (SE Mich) says:

    I can speak for Travis as well that we are jeulous of GR’s 61 degrees today… We only made it to 54. At least it was sunny for a few minutes in the evening.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I love this quote made by Mrs Parr at the end of the article – a very sensible approach, IMO:

      “We are not anti-fracking or anti-drilling. My goodness, we live in Texas. Keep it in the pipes, and if you have a leak or spill, report it and be respectful to your neighbors. If you are going to put this stuff in close proximity to homes, be respectful and careful.”

      I hope the Parrs prevail – while we DO need oil and gas, the process of extracting it shouldn’t be making people sick.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        I completely concur. :-)

    2. Ryan says:

      I recently noticed a fracking well a stones throw away from the Ice Mountain Water bottling facility in Stanwood, Michigan.

  23. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I like how there will be a NNE wind tomorrow so Chicago will be colder. At least we were warmer than GR today, it was very warm and nice. I haven’t looked at the forecasts in a while, but a lot of rain looks likely next week.

  24. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Good night everyone, sweet dreams.

  25. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

    Bill could you move this thread to the top tomorrow?

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