Will It Snow Again??

May 2nd, 2014 at 2:42 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

gfs_namer_336_1000_500_thick    gfs_namer_348_1000_500_thick Click on the images to enlarge.   These are the GFS model forecast for the evening of the 15th and the morning of the 16th.  Thickness lines would be at least borderline for some mixed snow overnight on the 15th.  Still waiting on the European model, but this is a cool, cool pattern.  At this point, I’d still say unlikely, but certainly not out of the realm of possibility.  We had snow flurries in West Michigan on May 19, 2002 (and I had a dusting on the ground at my house that morning with a temperature of 30°).

The GFS has our warm day this coming Thurs. then a rainy Friday and back to cool for the following week.  Like I’ve said – don’t be in a hurry to plant anything frost sensitive.  I’ll look at the overnight European in the morning.

248 Responses to “Will It Snow Again??”

  1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Check this out! For those of you hoping and begging for temps in the 80′s! Forget about it!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      “Looks hot”–Travis

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        I am sure Travis will be saying it will be above average this month and in Flint they may set some May heat records!!!

        1. Ansel says:

          well, April was the globally the hottest on record in the last 150 years, so I would say his hot bias is more in touch with the facts than your cold bias.

        2. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Not true.

        3. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Worldwide temps last 10 years as reported by NCEP (not exactly a right wing think tank). Does this LOOK like the hottest April ever?

          http://t.co/VGeD3ccDnr

        4. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

          Rocky, please read my comment I just left for you on the older comment. Sorry!

        5. Ansel says:

          Sorry, I was talking about March. “March 2014 was actually the fourth warmest March in the last 135 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center report. Globally the temperature averaged 1.28 degrees Fahrenheit above the century average.” That seems pretty warm to me…

        6. Paul m says:

          Dream on Rocky winter is over!

        7. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Wow Ansel is another global warming freak! Imagine that! Ansel sounds like fixxxer! Who knew?

        8. matt says:

          Warm weather will be soon i love it bring who knew imagine that thanks for reading

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2014 is +0.17 deg. C, unchanged from February…and again…global temperatures have been flat since 2002.

          0.17 deg. C is hardly worth forcing hundreds of thousands of people into energy poverty: http://www.theguardian.com/society/2011/dec/01/fuel-poverty-affects-quarter-households (it costs significantly more to heat with solar/wind than with more reliable and clean natural gas).

        10. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Keep it coming baby!

  2. On a serious note, did you guys hear about the helicopters shot down in Ukraine today? after a quiet extended period of time this has come out of no where. I sure hope that things don’t go further but so far that is exactly what has happened. Hopefully Russia does not invade Eastern Ukraine. If Russia did, would the US go help Ukraine to push them back or would be stay out since they are not apart of NATO? I really don’t want to see another war because I am a big supported against war. I think the biggest fear of people from 18-25 is the draft. Sure hope that does not come back if war did spark between the US and Russia

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Obama would probably have a lot of harsh words for Russia if it goes any farther…..

      1. Ansel says:

        better than starting a needless war for a made up reason. WMD’s anyone?

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          You talking about Vietnam? Many more casualties in
          Afghanistan under Obama than Bush: http://icasualties.org/OEF/index.aspx

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Who started the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Who fabricated the weapons of mass destruction fantasy in Iraq?

        3. Bill Steffen says:

          Who jacked up the far higher death rates in Vietnam? Democrat and dog ear-puller Lyndon Johnson.

        4. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I would think that would be also do to the fact that we are only in Afghanistan.( I did not fact check this theory , we had our troops more focused in Iraq under Bush ) Obama does have Bin-laden under his belt , so he does have that going for him. :)

        5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Just for the record – I am an independent and I do not trust politician! Mostl politicians only care about money and getting re-elected! The political bashing on both sides is destroying America! Our political system is totally corrupt!

        6. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Government is a broken wheel , I will agree to that.

        7. GunLakeDeb says:

          Rocky – for once I agree with you 1000000 percent.

      2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        Any harsh words from Obama, Russia will just laugh.

      3. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

        I’m sure Barry will send a strongly worded letter to Vlad. That ought to take care of it.

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      I did hear about that as well Kyle , and you are correct it’s not good , but as for a draft I think you need not worry. Btw you do know things have been going on for quiet some time , it’s just not getting as much media coverage. Russia has already invaded Ukraine as you might already know , so the question that really remains is what areas are next in my opinion as it doesn’t look good. ( let’s hope for the best , and they stop with Crimea ) .

    3. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

      Hopefully Russia will not do anything stupid. In spite of Obama, the United States still has the strongest military force in the world. Unfortunately, we seem to use our power in the worst ways possible. No one in their right mind wants war, but someone like Putin can’t be allowed to bitzkrieg his way through the Baltic. It’s like Hitler all over again.

      1. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

        “Blitzkrieg” My bad. :-)

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          The ironic thing is Putin and there media machine is calling us the Nazis . The million dollar question however is what do we do when things escalate ?

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          “We are socialists, we are enemies of today’s capitalistic economic system…and we are all determined to destroy this system under all conditions.” – Adolph Hitler

    4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      WAR. Good God, y’all. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

      But seriously, what kind of country would invade another without provocation or good reason?

      1. One thing I wish the US would do Is mind out own buisness. Let Ukraine deal with it themselves. There’s plenty of things the United States should be doing right now than stuffing our nose in other people’s buisness

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          +1

        2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          In a general sense , we should mind our own business especially when it’s for reasons other than why we think we might be involved. Unfortunately the answer is not always this easy as doing nothing in many cases bares harsh consequences as well. But I do agree we could make better decisions in some cases .

        3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          The US has nothing to gain or lose by not getting involved. There are a much, much worse conflicts and atrocitites going on elsewhere around the world, and the US gives less than a crap about them.

        4. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          We are already involved…… As to if we should or should not keep escalating harsher sanctions , I have no idea. You have to remember we have many allies in that region so it’s a bit messy. Now if you are implying boots on the ground , then that would be wildly unpopular and I don’t believe that’s the answer .

        5. GunLakeDeb says:

          At the risk of being cynical (who me?) – you guys have to remember that there are a lot of people who WANT to go to war. If you’re sitting in the Pentagon, the fastest way to get a promotion is to go to war. And THOSE guys are perfectly safe in their Ivory Tower…..

          There’s also Big Business, wanting their overseas interests protected (not sure how much that applies to the Ukraine)

          A war can “brighten up the economy” by putting more people to work.

          Of course, there are giant egos at work (the Korean War could have ended 2 years earlier if egos hadn’t gotten in the way; and don’t get me started on the mess that was Vietnam)

          And in my opinion, NONE of those are reason enough to risk the lives of American soldiers.

        6. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I agree with ya GLD , however I don’t believe this would pass in congress , war is not something republicans nor dems want at this point and let’s hope it remains this way.

        7. whatBillwantstosaybutcant says:

          GunLakeDeb, we are broke. We would have to borrow money to go to war. This would not “help” the economy.

        8. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          You are correct. How many trillions were pissed away in Iraq and Afghanistan?

  3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Global warming = hype! Mini Ice Age = facts! Get used to it!

    1. matt says:

      Warm weather will be here soon fact i love it bring it who knew. Hot days and warm nights willl be son jist the facts thanks for reading

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        You would think so, being that it is now May.

    2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Today I agree. Hope there is no hard feelings.

    3. Ansel says:

      “March 2014 was actually the fourth warmest March in the last 135 years, according to the National Climatic Data Center report. Globally the temperature averaged 1.28 degrees Fahrenheit above the century average.”

      1. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

        Please tell me who is behind the National Climatic Data Center? Al Gore? As we know, statistics can be manipulated to come up with a desired result. Call me skeptical, but……….

      2. Bill Steffen says:

        Global temperaturs have been steady since 2002: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

        Everyone acknowledges that, including James Hansen: “The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade… – James Hansen et al.

        The global climate models are failing miserably: http://www.climatedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Figure-2-Pielke.jpg

        The American Physical Society has a membership of 50,000: http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/03/20/American-Physical-Society-Sees-The-Light-Will-It-Be-The-First-Major-Scientific-Institution-To-Reject-The-Global-Warming-Consensus

        http://meetings.aps.org/Meeting/MAR14/Event/210790

        People need to see that some data sets have been “adjusted” to make the past look cooler and the present look warmer. “use Mike’s TRICK to HIDE THE DECLINE” (ClimateGate email) is not the way to do science.

        Locally, winters in G.R. are no warmer than they were 100+ years ago: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/01/25/january-temp-by-decade/

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I got a kick out of reading the comments from the last link. That was back when I was Mark (Charlotte). My, how time flies.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          Keep the facts coming Bill! The global warming nuts won’t listen to the facts, however keep em coming! Global warming = hype. The Mini Ice Age = reality! Imagine that!

        3. kevin. w says:

          Its really to bad you’ve let this blog become the bashing game on here, but then again you must like to get the climate crap and anything going. Really to bad. :(

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          I didn’t start this, Kevin – I was in Holland doing the weather this evening. I’m not letting MY blog become an unchallenged bullhorn for a lot of bull____. People hide behind their anonymous handles and then get bent when they are challenged. They ought to be challenged not only on the blog, but in the classroom…the press ought to be challenging them, too (how do you think Al Gore would do in a debate with Dr. Judith Curry?).

  4. kevin. w says:

    Blah..Blah…Blah…Kind of like Alex Lifeson’s speech when Rush got inducted.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The almighty kevin w has spoken! Everyone bow down!

      1. matt says:

        Warm weather will be here soon thanks for reading

  5. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    You know the weather is benign when politics , global warming and general hot – cold bickering begins to fire up , oh and a harsh winter with no sun always helps. hehe. All that is needed however is a few good thunder storms to track and a bit of warmth and sunshine to re- align the good old blog as next week might bring just that! :)

  6. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Hey Rocky if you are going to post the 8-14 day outlook then I think it’s only fair you post the other one as well , we can’t be just cherry picking the outlooks we like , well I guess you can. We do however have a shot at hitting 80 next week especially those in the southern cwa , it should be right around that 80 Mark +/ – towards the end of next week.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/index.php

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      No doubt it will be near 80 degrees next week, however it will be very short lived!

      1. matt says:

        Warm weather will be here soon we will be pickin cherries and drinking beer get used to it i love it bring imagine that thanks for reading

    2. Wayne (South of GR) says:

      Rocky has always cherry picked the maps he wants, that is how he looks like he knows what he is talking about sometimes.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        That is funny!

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Lol and the whole time I thought he was just posting the same blue cold map over and over. Yup , it will be short lived , that does look to be the case as the bulk of the heat is scared of the extreme cold which lives in Michigan .

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          At this point, the NWS is only showing Thursday as the only day next week over 70.

        3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Yup , I think 80 will be closer to the border as they have been backing off a bit your right.

        4. John (Norton Shores) says:

          From the NWS long term text

          H850 TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE MID TEENS C.
          THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND THE FIRST 80 DEGREE
          READINGS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WOULD BE LIKELY.

          So 80 is not out of the question for most of the area.

        5. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I hope they do !! I welcome the warmth with open arms and bering gifts…!

        6. matt says:

          Warm weather soon get used to it dont like it move who knew imagine that thanks for reading

  7. Uhg today was a long stressful day. I think I’ll go for a spin on 131 through Allegan County, flip on the country music, and take the back roads home. Be back later bloggers

  8. kevin. w says:

    Bill’s climate/politics waste of time blog. Its really a shame even how a professional can fall in the trap of nonsense. It use to be awesome to come on here but it sure just become a bunch of immaturity. I really use to enjoy reading others post but am hating it more and more.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Then good riddance!

      1. matt says:

        Warm weather will be here soon thanks for reading

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Yeah, me and not anyone else? No other commentor, just me? I’m supposed to let my blog just degenerate into a one-sided rant of climate hysteria and hyperbole? Only the climate profiteers have free speech on my blog?? Never, Kevin! You can’t respond to Dr. Judith Curry, can you? You can’t explain why the climate models have been wrong. People suffer because of policy decisions to make utility rates “skyrocket”. Money is diverted from substantive environmental issues.

    3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      There is nothing wrong with being passionate about a cause , even if it doesn’t necessarily align with ones own personal views as this is how we would hope to learn more about different things and not only seeing them through that of a single lens.

  9. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Here stormy stormy stormy….. Here stormy thunder stormy. Lol

  10. I am not sure if I have or not but if I had any part in making this blog unejoyable then I do apologize. I am not aware if I have or not but I would never spark anything that would cause an uproar. Just throwing that out there. I enjoy everyone on this blog no matter how repetitive things may get. This blog is a very enjoyable place for me with lots of friendly people.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      No worries Kyle. When the weather gets boring, it brings out the best in us. Or the worst. :)

      1. Yeah true.

        I try to contribute the best possible on this blog. Not sure if I do a great job of it because I know I am not a professional but I do my best.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Kyle – it’s been fun watching you and Nathan grow into aspiring meteorologists! And in a way – this is good training for “life”. As you go on to college or specialized school or to a career – you will always encounter people who make you want to grind your teeth. If you can learn to get along with them (or at least coexist) in spite of their views, you will go far in life.

      I’ve seen a scary trend over the last decade or so – of people whose sole purpose in life is to create chaos on forums/blogs/websites. This blog is fairly civilized – if you want to see the cesspool of life, go read “rants and raves” on Craig’s list. But REAL LIFE, including things like a career, relies on face-to-face communication, cooperation, and compromise. I am really worried that there are a few young folks who are simply incapable of these crucial skills?

      So hang in here. You are doing just fine :-)

  11. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Captain Bill , I think we may need a fresh start and a new thread always helps , unless your out on a hot date with the wife or working. :)

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      * you’re

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      Kinda busy with the late news right now…I’ll work on it before I head to dreamland tonight.

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Thanks Bill , and I’m sure the news will go smooth as usual.

    3. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

      A new thread would be a great idea!!

  12. Ben Lamfers says:

    Global warming. Crops are sensitive to 1 or 2 degrees average long term change in temperature. Say what you want – there is or is not Global Warming. I place a lot of stock in the fact of what is taking place in US Agriculture regarding the shift north to the Canadian border of Soybean production. North Dakota is now growing successfully soybeans, unheard of 20 years ago. I have heard of ice in the Polar regions but not much about what is taking place in US Agriculture. And don’t suggest this is because of genetic development in Soybeans.

    1. Ansel says:

      No its just a conspiracy by thousands of evil scientists. Thank goodness we have the oil companies to give us the truth, because they are out for are best interests.

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          A conspiracy of the 50,000 members of the American Physical Society to “adjust” their position on “global warming”: http://judithcurry.com/2014/02/19/aps-reviews-its-climate-change-statement/

    2. Brian (Grandville) says:

      So if there may be a trend in temps, what would you tend to believe could be a leading factor in causing this? This is always the almighty question, which usually tends to split us into 2 distinct groups.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      First a history of soybeans: http://agron-www.agron.iastate.edu/Courses/agron212/Readings/Soy_history.htm

      Here’s a look at crops in North Dakota since 1950: http://www.ag.ndsu.edu/news/columns/spotlight-on-economics/spotlight-on-economics-n-d-cropping-practices-past-present-and-future/2013-10-02.2286097385/image You can see that there were some soybeans grown in North Dakota 20 years ago. There has been a move to soybeans and corn due to higher prices for these commodities (biofuels). Look at climate data for individual stations with a long climate history and you’ll find temperatures today are similar than they were 100 years ago.

      1. matt says:

        I always look at the old temps as well and im amazed that youre right bill on how tje temps are the about even

    4. Robert (Plainwell) says:

      Well what about the Vikings who settled in Greenland and grew crops. They didn’t genetically alter crops.

      http://www.iupui.edu/~geni/documents/Vikings_in_Greenland-An_Overview.doc

  13. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Next week we will be getting warmer temperatures and possible severe storms.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Then we all can be one big happy family again, here on Bill’s Blog.

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