Severe Risk/Cool Summer?May 4th, 2014 at 1:44 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
This is the Day 6 (Thursday) Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. You can see it comes up to Lake Michigan. I’m sure this will be adjusted as time goes on…but we should be paying attention as the warm air makes a run for Michigan Thurs./Thurs. night. SPC says: “INCLUSION OF A 30 PERCENT-EQUIVALENT RISK AREA CAN BE INTRODUCED ATTM WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE…WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.” The GFS plot has been very consistent bringing the warm air up Thurs. PM and taking us into the upper 70s. It has a little rain Monday, Wednesday and again Thurs. night into Friday with the cool front.
I attended a seminar at the GRR NWS on Saturday and local climatologist Bill Marino told me that he looked up years when we had more than 80% ice cover on the Great Lakes and he said just about all the following summers were a little cooler than average in Michigan. Paul Pastelok talked about the cold water/ice on the Great Lakes in his Saturday discussion (Accu-Weather Premium) and he noted that this could keep most of the severe weather to our south thru Illinois and Indiana through perhaps early July.
Fairbanks, Alaska (a record 72) was warmer than Daytona Beach, Florida (70) on Saturday. Death Valley CA reached 110 for the first time this year – the average first 110 is May 18. Calgary, Alberta area had 1-3″ of snow Saturday and an afternoon temp. of 32…average high for them is 58. Will Lake Superior have ice left on June 1?
Quick Note: The morning run of the European model gives G.R. 0.02″ of rain Mon., 0.08″ of rain Weds. and 0.34″ Friday morning. The timing would have the severe weather Thurs. PM west and southwest of Michigan and the frontal rain coming thru here Fri. AM – with the time of day indicating a reduced threat of severe weather.