Severe Risk/Cool Summer?

May 4th, 2014 at 1:44 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

day48prob    This is the Day 6 (Thursday) Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.   You can see it comes up to Lake Michigan.  I’m sure this will be adjusted as time goes on…but we should be paying attention as the warm air makes a run for Michigan Thurs./Thurs. night.  SPC says:  “INCLUSION OF A 30 PERCENT-EQUIVALENT RISK AREA CAN BE INTRODUCED ATTM WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE…WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.”  The GFS plot has been very consistent bringing the warm air up Thurs. PM and taking us into the upper 70s.  It has a little rain Monday, Wednesday and again Thurs. night into Friday with the cool front.

I attended a seminar at the GRR NWS on Saturday and local climatologist Bill Marino told me that he looked up years when we had more than 80% ice cover on the Great Lakes and he said just about all the following summers were a little cooler than average in Michigan.  Paul Pastelok talked about the cold water/ice on the Great Lakes in his Saturday discussion (Accu-Weather Premium) and he noted that this could keep most of the severe weather to our south thru Illinois and Indiana through perhaps early July.

Fairbanks, Alaska (a record 72) was warmer than Daytona Beach, Florida (70) on Saturday.  Death Valley CA reached 110 for the first time this year – the average first 110 is May 18.  Calgary, Alberta area had 1-3″ of snow Saturday and an afternoon temp. of 32…average high for them is 58.  Will Lake Superior have ice left on June 1?

Quick Note:   The morning run of the European model gives G.R. 0.02″ of rain Mon., 0.08″ of rain Weds. and 0.34″ Friday morning.  The timing would have the severe weather Thurs. PM west and southwest of Michigan and the frontal rain coming thru here Fri. AM – with the time of day indicating a reduced threat of severe weather.

106 Responses to “Severe Risk/Cool Summer?”

  1. Clint (Shelby) says:

    Looks like the end of next week could be interesting….ARE YOU READY INDY!!??

  2. TomKap (Michigan & Fuller - GR) says:

    I’m ok with a cool summer….and long as next Winter is NOT LIKE THE LAST ONE!

  3. bluegill says:

    Snowing hard right now in Grand Traverse County and the ground is turning white. What is this, the curse of Rocky?

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      I might head up there for some cross country skiing baby!

  4. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    COOL SUMMER = GREAT SUMMER! Bring it!

  5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the below normal temps coming!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Fantastic. Temps. average to above average for most of the week. I love it. Bring it. Who knew?

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Except for Sunday and Monday and Tuesday. You know, almost half of the week.

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Don’t believe I said the whole week. So if we get 4 days at average or above is that not greater than 3 days? I’ll stick with most of the week. Thanks for your input though.

        2. GB says:

          Congrats on being the most unlikeable person on here that takes a lot of work.

        3. Michael g (se GR) says:

          Thanks man, it’s a talent. By the way, what do you contribute?

        4. GB says:

          Just point out the facts and watch you be well you it’s funny stuff

  6. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    The risk area per the usual has shifted and they are talking about a north and a south component .

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

  7. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    There are more and more indications that we could have a cool/cold summer this year and that would not surprise me one bit. it’s sunny here now and windy and a temp here of 50°
    SlimJim

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      +100 GAZILLION!!!!!!!

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Sunny and not quite 40 here; but the COLD wind is whipping across the white-capped lake…. I think I won’t be doing yard work this morning.

  8. INDY says:

    Clint and the rest of Bills best INDY will be keeping a eye eye sir on the weather we all now when cold air warm air date we have Tornado in our state !! Stay tuned INDYY!!!

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Did you polish off the dirty 30 last night Indy ? Today it’s time to boogedy boogedy boogedy at good old Talladega speed way as the cup cars get there turn. It was definitely different to see more of a pack style race yesterday and not the tandem style racing we have become accustom to with the nation-wide series.

  9. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    We finally get a day with our non – existent sun over the past 6 mon and we have a steady north wind at 14-18 with gusts near 30. Can we please catch a small break , let’s hope the winds don’t kick up as much as expected today as I need some sun .

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      * sorry I just walked outside and it’s more of a North-west wind so my current temp of 47 degrees really feels much much cooler.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Feels VERY chilly out there this morning. Temp is only creeping up, which is amazing given that the sun now is as strong as it is in early August.

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    As long as temps remain in the 70′s this summer, I’m okay with a cooler summer. Still not sold on the idea that severe weather is going to be south of our sate the whole summer. The lakes have nothing to do with the severe weather. Again what determines our severe weather is if all of the ingredients come together to produce an outbreak in the Great lakes. I guess we will have to wait and see this summer.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      I hope we have a fun season , although I have to say the lakes do affect our storms , but I would agree that SVR weather is predicate on many atmospheric components that often have nothing to do with the lake. One can also have lake enhanced storms so the ball does go both ways , as the shredder can dual as the creator.

  11. INDY says:

    Dirty 30 all right getting thee YARDofBRICKS ready for May 25th!! IDNYY!!

  12. GunLakeDeb says:

    As someone who’s not fond of severe weather, I find this (from Bill’s post) rather nice to read:

    “Paul Pastelok talked about the cold water/ice on the Great Lakes in his Saturday discussion (Accu-Weather Premium) and he noted that this could keep most of the severe weather to our south thru Illinois and Indiana through perhaps early July.”

    A cool, CALM summer is just fine by me!

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      A cool summer would be just fine. The less money we spend on a/c would be a plus, at least for me.

      1. Don (Battle Creek) says:

        Agreed-plus, I work in a restaurant, so a cooler summer sure would make things more pleasant when I’m working :)

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Not a scorcher , I’m a buyer , but take my storms away I’m selling that every-time as I need my storms like Indy needs his sprites . I’m really not sure anyone can say with much certainty what our summer will bring as far as SVR weather goes , when one looks back on past weather it’s easy to see it really can go either way and that is factoring in the harsh winter .

  13. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The storms later in the week I think will be severe. Who knows, Barry County might even have a tornado warning.

    1. fixxxer says:

      did your super secret crystal weather ball tell you that?

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        I know all things. You want me to pick your winning lottery numbers?

      2. Don (Battle Creek) says:

        Um, he said “might,”–not a certainty by any means.

  14. fixxxer says:

    the sun is nice but this wind and cool temps is a drag, getting tired of this. and no duh bill, i think everybody knows it wont be a warm summer. more woodtv cold weather bias hype.

    as i said i just hope this isn’t the new standard for winter, spring and or summer temps.

    1. SBPortage002 says:

      We have had cool springs before. In fact, I remember some Memorial Days where it was downright chilly. Nothing new for Michigan.

      1. Barb says:

        Yes, and even Junes that were downright cold.

  15. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Newsflash. Fixxxer is complaining. I have never seen him post like that. A cool summer is ok with me! As ling as we get into the 70s for temps! That would be just about perfect! I still have this idea that we could also get periods of hot weather through the summer. I mean temps in the upper 80s amd low 90s for a few days. Doubtful but such extremes with last winter may mean extremes the summer? Just a thought.

    1. Dan (Byron Center) says:

      *long. and

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        We will get our days in the 80s, maybe a 90 thrown in. We will get southerly winds from time to time after all. But as long as it is in the 75-85 range, I’m good.

  16. Well looks like this whole week was crap. Cool, Cloudy most of the time, and windy. If it wasn’t windy today it would be a very nice mild day. One thing I hate the most is wind on a nice day. It just wrecks the whole day completely. I was out in the woods at sunrise this morning (about 6:30) and it was very calm and quite. Heard a bunch of turkey’s gobbling in the distance

  17. I was out walking our land we have in Northeast Allegan County and came across these flowers in the woods. Anyone know what they are?

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2gy36h2&s=8#.U2ZVVYFdWvE

    1. Red in Allegan Co. says:

      Those flowers are Dutchman’s Britches.

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Aptly named. :-)

  18. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

    Sunny & very breezy (windy) here! Beautiful day!

  19. Clint (Shelby) says:

    Beautiful day out today….can’t wait for some severe storms onThursday and Friday!!! You READY INDY!!!!

  20. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I’m hopping for some SVR weather just as much as the next storm enthusiast , but I’m not seeing the best conditions for us in Michigan at this point. That’s not to say some want see a few storms moving through but it is questionable if we will be included in the slight risk outlook although maybe Friday we sneak in . I’m routing for the storms of course!!

  21. INDY says:

    INDY IS READY TO RACK STACK AND TRACK them storms only on Bills blog!! Sprite it up today from thee YARDofBRICKS…..INDYY!!!

  22. John says:

    Not seeing a ton of potential for storms next week… We really may not be getting any good severe weather days until maybe mid summer.

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      You may very well be right about that. We are just not in the storm track.

  23. mr. negative says:

    Yep…storm free as always, and cold throughout the calendar.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Let me guess fixxxer, you’ll even be negative on the days that Grand Rapids hits the 80′s and 70′s this week, you need some sunshine in your life.

  24. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    One can get a general idea from looking at the forecasted QPF for days 4 and 5 as too where they feel the low pressure system will be tracking and you can also see how there is a north and south component to where the storm activity will be.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I am sure Monday night the NWS will have a better idea what will happen later in the week.

  25. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Here is what April looked like for most of us and yet another month goes by with …….yep you guessed colder than average temperatures . That would be 6 months of below average temps for us going back to November of 2013 and where May will finish only time will tell and I’m hopping we end up in the red but I wouldn’t bet on it.

    http://go.usa.gov/kHFY

  26. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The NWs has raised my high temperature up to 77 for Thursday, I’ll take that! :)

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      and 83 for Grand Rapids

  27. Jack says:

    Cool Summer ? What a Bummer !! I’ll Take The HOT HOT HUMID SUMMERS…In “Northern Michigan” any Day and Any Time..AHH The Memories!!! Of The Summer of the 70′s and 80s in TRAVERSE CITY $ Lake CITY.. MI. CUE: Kid Rock – All Summer Long [OFFICIAL MUSIC VIDEO] – YouTube
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwIGZLjugKA
    TURN IT UP….. GANG………. :-)

  28. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Turned out to be quite a nice day and the sun feels so so good , oh have I have missed the sun.

  29. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    For those south of Kalamazoo should see the best chances of some boomer action mid-week and let’s keep raising those temps as we move forward . Up in my neck of the woods will most likely be a bit more quite kinda similar to last years trend for storms.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      * Wednesday time frame , we will have to see how thurs-fri takes shape.

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      What makes you think the storms will be south of K-zoo, just curious? I think the best chance o severe weather will be south of k-zoo but we may still get some storms, I at least want a good lightning storm lol.

  30. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Went out to the pond(family private campsite, Yankee Springs), you can tell it was a long hard winter. The pond water level very good. It was a nice day and windy. I got a little wind burn today. I love Yankee Springs. This summer I want to check out the Devil’s Soup Bowl, near Deep Lake. Gun Lake always puts on a good FireWorks show every year. We plan on camping few days before memorial Day weekend.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I was at the State Park last night – taking some stock photos for a 5k run we hope to do next year …anyway ..while wandering through the YS campground, I was surprised by how many folks were camping, and the smell of campfires and sound of giggling kids at play just made me want to join them!!! Everyone was bundled up – but having a really great time :-)

    2. Aaron H (NE GR) says:

      Larry, Are you in Parkside Park by chance? I’ve got a permanent lot there.

      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        No, it’s a private family site.

  31. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Frost advisory for Montcalm, Newaygo and Mecosta counties sunday night until 8 am Monday.

    1. Jack says:

      Yup, Uncle Sparkee, Will need to COVER UP his Little “Green” giggle Grass…If he has moved EM…into The GREAT OUTDOORS!!!….. ;-) . STAY cueDD…………… ;-)

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        All these counties are under frost advisory.

        Bay
        Clare
        Genesee
        Gratiot
        Huron
        Isabella
        Lake
        Lapeer
        Mason
        Mecosta
        Midland
        Montcalm
        Newaygo
        Oceana
        Osceola
        Saginaw
        Sanilac
        St. Clair
        Tuscola

  32. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Go Tigers!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoZLdivjgjE

    Stay Cued boys and girls ;)

  33. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the cool temperatures coming!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Keep the warm temps coming. Fantastic. I love it. Who knew? Bring it.

  34. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    NEWS FLASH – fixxxer will be whining and complaining even when it is sunny and 80 degrees! Who knew?

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      meh, he whines about everything. He should find a new reason to come on here because its old news.

    2. Tom says:

      If I recall-your statement a few days ago said GR wouldn’t see any 80′s this week or was it the whole month of May. You may have to eat some crow come Thursday hopefully!!!!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Actually he said the whole month. He should be sick of eating crow by now he’s been wrong so many times. I love it. Who knew? Fantastic. Bring it.

    3. matt says:

      Warm weather will be here soon i love it bring. Rock n roll is dead who knew imagine that thanks for reading

    4. fixxxer says:

      Im betting were nowhere near 80 this week. Go hide under your moms bed rocky.

      1. Irish coffee says:

        NO where NEAR 80?….I’d take that bet!’;)

  35. The KRP Chasing Machine will be able to go chasing in Michigan this week!

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      At this time, when do you think you will be out chasing storms?

      1. Depending which day looks the best. Right now Wednesday and Friday look good. Pretty good chance Wednesday. Depending on if were issued in a Slight Risk Area I will have to determine where to chase. I live chasing in Allegan and Van Buren Couties (Lots of farmland and open fields to get a good view).

        1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

          Have you chase storms before here in Barry County before? You are always welcome here in Hastings. Looking forward to your storm chasing reports. Maybe this will be the week.

        2. I actually did chase a storm through Hastings before over towards Nashville in the Eastern part of Barry Co. It had a tornado warning on it too. The sirens were going off in Hastings when I went through. I actually was in the Barry Co. Christian School parking lot

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Hopefully the event on the 24th will live up to the hype.

  36. INDY says:

    We will be TRACKING RACKING AND STACKING severe storms Wed. Nows the time to go over a sprite plane will u have enough???? The storms are a coming are u ready??? From thee YARDofBRICKS……….INDYY!!

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      Don’t believe it, until I see it yet.

  37. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Tonight is setting up to be a rather cold night with a lot of areas getting frost; with what is looking more and more like what will be a cool/cold summer I wonder bow many more chances of frost we will get going into late spring and then into summer? Here is yet another forecasters ideas as to a cool/cold summer in our area (except Flint where it will be above average LOL)

    http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2014/05/04/summer-forecast-2014/?awt_l=H1ELw&awt_m=3YJQ2M5j2dqVgYl

    SlimJim

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      I’m pretty sure we had a touch of frost last year in the first part of June, once or twice. And maybe again at the end of August/early September.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The wind died and it is clear, it’s going to be chilly In the morning.

    3. fixxxer says:

      I doubt the summer will be “cold”. Id say at minimum average. Then again that isnt very warm either.

      1. Paul m says:

        Can’t believe any long range forecast after all no one forecasted our winter we just had!
        I’m going with warmer summer!

  38. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Looks like another wait/see what happens storm later this week. We are a few hours out, a lot of things can happen.

  39. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    I think, I am coming down with a spring time COLD. What I hate even worst is a summer time COLD, I end up in bed for couple of days.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I think I am too Larry. At least I am off on Mondays now.

    2. fixxxer says:

      Its probably allergies. Pretty bad this year.

  40. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    First frost advisory of the year for the northern counties.

  41. BigCountry(Wyoming, MI) says:

    Bill, just saw a bright meteor at 9:15pm.
    It’s heading was west southwest and direction was in the southern sky, roughly 55-60° above the horizon.
    It was bright and beautiful, can’t recall seeing one when it was still so bright out before dark!

    1. Jack says:

      Hmmm….On a Related Meteor Sighting Here : Meteor strike in Ontario? Flash of blue light, loud boom reported on social media
      CTV News ‎- 3 hours ago
      A meteor may have made a fiery entrance into the earth’s atmosphere on Sunday after a … Simon D. Scott (@Simon_D_Scott) May 4, 2014 … A sighting of the possible meteor was even reported in Rochester, New York. Stay cued.

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        It is Star Wars day, May the 4th be with you ;)

        1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

          Ha.

  42. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Good night, going to bed early, nasty head cold. The weather will be fun to watch this week. zzzzzz

  43. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Sorry if someone has already posted , but for those who are interested in First / Last frost dates in our area.

    http://go.usa.gov/knxQ

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      * freeze dates

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