Severe Risk

May 6th, 2014 at 3:57 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook These are the Severe Risks and the Green General Thunderstorm Area Outlooks from SPC.  We’ll be dry and pleasant today, with a risk of a shower or storm late Tue. night into Friday.  Some storms could be strong, but the best chance of severe is out toward the Mississippi River.  I am working Tues. to Sat. this week – yesterday I spent some time on the radio on WJQ and The Pledge, then raked up 8 bags of yard waste and cut the frost yard and most of the back.  My lawnmower started on the first pull of the year.

4 pm update:  Current temp. at the Milwaukee beach is 40.9 with a stiff east wind.  It’s 49.6 at the Muskegon beach, where the lake breeze has come into the beach area, while it’s 63 at the MKG airport.   Dry this PM and evening – but a warmer and wetter pattern for the next week.   Chance shower or t-shower late tonight/tomorrow – odds of a shower or t-shower during the Volksparade (2 PM Holland) about 45%.  We will probably be dry for the Kinderparade Thurs. (2 pm) and the big Muziekparade (2 pm Sat.).  The CFSv2 model is showing a relatively cool period for the Great Lakes for mid May-early June.  Look at the 216-hour morning run of the GFS – that’s windy and cold AND it’s snowing in northern Michigan!!  Look at the difference in the GFS from week one to week 2.   The European is not as cool, with temps. still reaching the low 60s a week from tomorrow.  The European has rain later tonight, Thurs. night into Fri. AM and next Monday night late into Tues.

Also, 6.3 magnitude earthquake in Thailand – look at how it cracked this road.  Monday was hot in the South and cool in the North.   Snow in Calgary, CanadaCool mammatus picture.

 

197 Responses to “Severe Risk”

  1. A random stray shower just sprung up just south of Chicago

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I also see on radar, other pop up storms west of us. We might get some storms tomorrow.

  2. Michelle (comstock park) says:

    My son’s class is going to see the Whitecaps tomorrow form 10:30 to 2pm. Any idea of their chance of it NOT getting rained out? I think they will go if the game is still being played.I just wonder if that is going to happen.

  3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    So the SPC is pretty confident with storm development across the lake that much is apparent as they are now showing 70 % , which I’m not sure if they issue a higher probability then that , if they do it must be rare because I don’t recall one at the moment. Hopefully when they issue the next one it extends over our way. Boooooomers!!! ( 12 mid – 8am )

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/imgs/enh_0400.gif

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      WOW, sweet sound of thunder.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        My back is feeling it so something must be brewing

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I like it Swatz….real in the boomers.

  4. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Nice job Robbie Ray. Even though it was Houston, that it a good team to go against in your first outing.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      What did Robbie Ray do?

    2. Jack says:

      Yeah, Great Game for His First Major league START !! The crowd in MOTOWN Gave Him a STANDING OVATION !! What a RAY ( pun intended) of Hope for His and The Tigers Future….Stay CueDD…Our TIGERS are on FIRE!!!!!!! :-)

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        I wish Kinsler would stop trying to play outfield on some plays.

  5. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    5.1 5H 1R 1ER 1BB 5 K’s 86 pitches.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      It would be nice to get a good young prospect with a pitcher.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      No they are just showing off. But that’s ok.

  6. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Good deal of rain centered almost on top of us. The WPC thinks we might see an inch of rain …..let’s hope that’s from thunder – storms.

    24 hr QPF :
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Expecting 70% of the rain to come between 12 – 18 hrs , as this would be timed up with the HRRR tomorrow afternoon .
      QPF 12-18 hrs
      http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_93ewbg.gif

  7. jerry hoag says:

    Nice Storm development North of Chicago!!!!!!!! WAHOOOOOOO!!!!!! Some Boomers for US TONIGHT, TRACKING AND RACKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. jerry hoag says:

    Really NEEDS TO THE SOUND OF THUNDER TONIGHT AND TO SEE THE FLASHING OF LIGHTNING AT MY HOUSE TO LIGHTEN MY MOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SOME GOOD THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WOULD DO THAT FOR ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-)

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      +1

  9. Marti B. (36th/Kalamazoo SE area) says:

    I just saw the 10 p.m. news on WXSP and they were showing the radar screen. I cracked up – the image looked like a big green frog with 2 little yellow eyes at the top of “its head.” I love it when the radar images look like something other than blobs of green, yellow, blue or purple! ;)

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      WOW…

    2. jerry hoag says:

      It is a nice storm development line. IT WOULD BE AWESOME TO GET IN ON THIS TONIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        What is interesting is that NWS lowered the chances on point and click from 60 – 40 % areas to our north and 50-40% in the GR area overnight for t-storms , but looking across the lake I see signs of life. I wonder if the gulf moisture that is working it’s way up is into our area yet. To lazy to look it up , so I guess we shall find out …..

        1. jerry hoag says:

          Hmmmmmm. we will see….I sure HOPE WE GET SOME!!!!!

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Looking at high resolution radar, moisture looks to be streaming in from the south. At the same time the southern edge looks to be getting the kibosh by the storm shredder.

    3. jerry hoag says:

      The Milwaukee Radar is looking even more promising!!!!!!!!!!! Even more development north of Waukegan…..AWESOME KEEP GRWOING STORMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. jerry hoag says:

        GROWING**

  10. jerry hoag says:

    Tiger are winning 11 to 1 in the 9th inning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  11. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Well the storms are already falling apart as they cross the lake, I hope this is not a sign of our severe weather chances, I want at least one good storms with some hail.

    1. jerry hoag says:

      I want just some good thunder and lightning tonight!!!! Kyle said at the 10 O’clock show that these Storms are surface based storms not elevated storms so it would suggest that the lake would kill them off some…..but maybe after they get on our side they could grow again…….ONE COULD PRAY AND HOPE FOR IT, RIGHT???

  12. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Didn’t the NWS yesterday say we might have some dry slot issues? I think some good gulf moisture will help these storms to develop.

    1. jerry hoag says:

      +1

  13. jerry hoag says:

    Looks like from the Milwaukee Radar that the line of storms is setting up into a line (kind of broken in spots) from central/southern Wisconsin to Southern Lake Michigan

    1. jerry hoag says:

      Good Ole’ Warm Front There!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. Jason (GR north Plainfield area) says:

    Breaks my heart to see those storms crumble.

  15. jerry hoag says:

    Anyone who lives by the lake, can you see any lightning coming across the lake from where you live at all??????? Just curious if anyone who lives by the lake can see any lightning yet???????? ANYONE, ANYONE, ANYONE???????

  16. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    Looks like the line is filling in now…………….KEEPING MY HOPES UP HIGH, MY MOOD AT HOME WILL BE SO, SO, SO, SO MUCH BETTER IF WE GET SOME GOOD LIGHTNING AND THUNDER TONIGHT AS I MENTIONED EARLIER. JUST ASK MY WIFE, SHE WILL TELL YOU, I WILL BE IN A MUCH BETTER MOOD IF WE GET SOME GOOD LIGHTNING AND THUNDER TONIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. So I’ve seen mixed reviews on the storm chances. I know the initial storms (maybe) would roll through early AM, but was there a chance for redevelopment in the afternoon? (Please say yes) ;)

  18. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Good night, maybe some thunder will wake me up during the night. The pain index is up tonight, hurting all over. Sweet dreams everyone.

  19. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Lightning and thunder off in the distance, it is getting closer each time though.

  20. That storm cell heading towards Grand Haven is detecting some small hail. Does anyone else see this?

  21. Ben S. says:

    Twice now, loud thunder in Holland.

  22. I was looking on WXMI’s radar and these cells are detecting some dime size hail. Does that sound reasonable with these cells?

    1. Ben S. says:

      Intellicast radar summary shows hail west of Grand Haven.

  23. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    We just had a lightning strike hit something very close to our house. It was bright enough to see the flash through the closed blinds. It also rattled our entire house for what had to be nearly 10 seconds. It’s been a few years since we’ve had a lightning strike that close.

    1. I remember in 2011 a lightning bolt struck a tree about 50 yards from our house. It shook the house and my ear drums rang because it was so loud. The tree had all the bark shaved off on the left side. It’s still standing today. I kept it because it looks cool

  24. Johnnie(Portage) says:

    lightning and thunder here :) A few gusts of wind too. Nothing serious. Hasn’t rained yet though.

  25. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAK! Feathers standing up – must be a storm near the coop! Time to put on my NASA endorsed glow in the dark chic yet hail repellent rain poncho!

  26. Ray says:

    It’s starting to storm in the city of Wyoming!!!

  27. Treasure Hunter says:

    Dime sized hail in Cascade. 1:20 a.m.

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