Wednesday PM

May 7th, 2014 at 1:47 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local   12:40 am – Heavy t-storms now in Isabella and Gratiot Counties may contain hail.  Most of the area will stay dry tonight.    The warm front made it up to around I-80.  Lansing, Illinois, just south of I-80 got to 81° – while the Chicago GLERL weather station just east of downtown Chicago (the water intake – Harrison Crib) at the same time was 47.7°.  Those two stations are only 23 miles apart.   It got to  90° at Pontiac, Illinois, 89° at Peoria, 85° in Kankakee, just south of Chicago.  The European model would give G.R. at least 84° tomorrow.  It will be cooler at Lake Michigan, where a SW wind off the lake will develop.  The storm in eastern Montcalm Co. has produced hail – earlier 3/4″ hail fell in S. Oceana Co.

Check out the video of a tornado going thru a church playground on 4/28 on the north side of Tupelo MS – note the change in wind direction.   The European model gives G.R. a low temp. of 34° on Fri. 5/16 – certainly a chance of frost if that’s right.

Hail was reported Wednesday in Grand Rapids, Kentwood, Walker, East G.R., Allendale, Alpine Township, Olive Center Battle Creek, Bellevue,  Cascade, Hamilton, Holland and Muskegon.  Rainfall overnight totaled 2.11″ in East G.R., 1.85″ in Walker, 1.55″ Belmont, 1.47″ Allendale, 1.44″ Dalton Township near Muskegon, 1.16″ Spring Lake, 1.02″ Sparta, 1.01″ Nunica.   The weather should be good for the Kinderparade in Holland at 2 PM Thursday and Saturday the weather looks great for the 5th/3rd Riverbank Run and the Muziekparade in Holland.

So far this year (thru Tuesday), we have had 93 days with temperatures cooler than average and only 30 with temperatures warmer than average (three were exactly average).

Also – actual quotes from the President’s Climate Assessment (courtesy of Dr. Roger Pelkie Jr., Colorado State Univ.):

  • “There has been no universal trend in the overall extent of drought across the continental U.S. since 1900″
  •  “Other trends in severe storms, including the intensity & frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain”
  • “lack of any clear trend in (hurricane) landfall frequency along the U.S. eastern and Gulf coasts”
  • “when averaging over the entire contiguous U.S., there is no overall trend in flood magnitudes”

I’ll add that global temperatures have been remarkable steady since 2002:  and the climate models used by the IPCC have obviously overemphasized the effect of CO2 on global temperature:     Here’s comments on the assessment from Dr. Judith Curry, Head of Climate Science at Georgia Tech.  and from Dr. Patrick Michaels, past President of the American Assn. of State Climatologists and senior research fellow for Research and Economic Development at George Mason Univ.  Strong tornadoes have not been increasing:    Global tropical cyclones have been decreasing in number and strength over the last 9 years.  We have now gone the longest period of time in history without a Category 3 or higher hurricane hitting the U.S.  Heat waves were worse in the 1930s than now.   The record of dry and wet periods shows little change, with the 1930s being the decade most likely to be referred to as “climate disruption” (not the present).  Snowfall has been increasing, not decreasing, like the climate alarmists thought would happenGlobal sea ice is well above average.  The historical record of the PDO and AMO (ocean oscillations) are a better fit to the global temperature record than CO2.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where they are pushing toward 3 feet of snow on the ground. Check out the cold temps. on the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. Here’s Closings.

361 Responses to “Wednesday PM”

  1. Cort S. says:

    Models are advertising a lot of moisture transport about 1 km above the ground tonight, with a lot of potential instability. The main problem is a hefty capping layer in the mid-levels above the moist and potentially unstable layer. It looks like an “Elevated Mixed Layer” to me… EML… it’s a layer of well-mixed dry and warm air in the mid-levels being transported here from the hot and dry southern High Plains. That capping layer and a lack of dynamic forcing or other lifting mechanisms will likely prevent what could be a lot of severe hailers here tonight and tomorrow.

  2. GunLakeDeb says:

    I’m getting a LOT of thunder here (and rain) – and radar looks kind of “meh”. Not sure what’s inspiring the lightning?

    1. Cort S. says:

      Meh is right… those cores on radar aren’t very strong or deep by comparison to Oceana Co… but they are high enough and cold enough such that I bet there’s a healthy mixture of liquid and ice getting churned up in those clouds, especially since this blob of rain went convective only in the past 20 minutes. You have a fresh updraft reaching 30,000 feet right over top of you. With freezing levels so low given the time of year, a cloud doesn’t have to grow very tall until it becomes icy and electrified.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        That’s interesting,I never thought of it that way!! :-) I’m just used to looking for the yellow or red when I hear thunder. Thanks, Cort

    2. Red in Allegan Co. says:

      I think that started right over me Deb. I was out cleaning up flower beds and it started to rain lightly.

  3. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    Thunderstorm here in Hastings….WOW. Thunder is like music to my ears. Just light rain.

  4. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Sun is starting to come out and the temperature is starting to go up, still a shot at hitting 70 today! :)

  5. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    A nice thunderstorm and will be grilling out shortly…life is good! lol

  6. Resourceful Nana says:

    I’m sure Meh does not stand for the month, but I don’t know what it means. Please enlighten me-and thanks.
    Quite dry here in St. Joseph County, farmers are stirring up dust as they plant.

    1. Red in Allegan Co. says:

      I believe it means “so-so” or “not much to get excited about”.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Sorry, I learned it from the kids… Red is right, it means “blah” :-)

  7. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    Wahooooooooo I Bet we can hit 85 tomorrow for a high temp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      I don’t know, Jerry….. I froze my butt off at my grandson’s lacrosse game in Grandville. It was only 56 with a COLD wind….and I had worn shorts because “it was going to be a warm day” :-( Thank goodness my daughter-in-law brought ample blankets along!!

  8. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Back up to 60 now.

  9. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    MOTHER NATURE BRING ON SOME MORE HUGE STORMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING THEN TOMORROW NIGHT AND FRIDAY!!!!!!! MAKE MY DAY!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Anyone want to make recommendations to my schedule next year? I’m not going to list all of my classes, but some highlights will be Ap physics and AP environmental science. Would anyone recommend these for meteorology or should I try something else? I’m debating on if I should do Spanish 3 or AP environmental science. Thanks for the help if you have any!

    1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

      If you want to go into the field of meteorology, I would think that Bill and probably Cort would be the best, and happy, to help you.

      Personally, I don’t know anything about meteors.

      Are you taking Spanish for personal or possible professional reasons?

      If it is for possible professional reasons, I will give you my thoughts. My daughter did that and it paid off very well for her.

    2. Cort S. says:

      Hit me up on facebook sometime. I didn’t even know you could get AP credit for environmental sci.

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Wouldn’t be easier to be like Al Roker and have a degree in broadcasting but not meteorology?

        1. Cort S. says:

          With today’s television job market, no. Especially if you’re entry level.

        2. peggie says:

          ya…….what’s with these weather guys being broadcasters. al roker is annoying as it gets…..horse mouth and all.

      2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Yup I definitely will Cort. Thanks!

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      You are clearly a terrific student!!

      My daughter took a lot of AP classes at Grandville – and it really paid off because she was able to test out of “regular” classes like calculus and chemistry when she got to the U of M. On the other hand, you might find out what the “weeder” classes are for your field – and NOT take those the first semester? My daughter signed up for Organic Chemistry (which she found out is a weeder course for pre-med) along with advanced Calc. and she really struggled that semester….

      Still saves big bucks if you can test out of a college class!

  11. Travis Ulberg (West of Martin, Allegan County) says:

    The front must have been/stopped right over my area. I went from 62° to 69° in less than an hour, and now I’m down to 59°.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      And the wind started blowing…… I don’t know what the wind chill was – but it felt cold.

  12. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Radar is showing up to or more than 2 inches of rain has fallen around the Stoney Lake, Rothbury area.

    It’s dark to the northwest here, I can hear some thunder off in the distance, the storm is still quite a bit off in the distance. I don’t expect it to do much here.

  13. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The sun is coming out. Maybe it will start to get muggy, when I start grilling shortly….life is so good. lol

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      Just lighted the grill. All this time I’ve been using matches, because the igniter didn’t work. I tried it and wa la. It worked. lol

      1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

        Have you ever tried an electric charcoal starter/lighter? That is certainly my preference.

      2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        I got a better one, last year I thought my igniter was broken, until someone ask me if I checked the
        battery. I didn’t know I had a battery.

        1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          Battery??? That’s absurd!!! lol ;)

  14. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Lots of thunder in the last 10-15 minutes. No lightening though

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      Check that. Just had a major cloud to ground.

  15. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    I seen about an hour ago the wind changed to out of the north, so about 30 mins from now, I should be getting a pretty good storm. Stay cued ;)

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      Big boomers and vivid lightening here. Heavy down pour.

  16. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    Radar is showing some development in Northern Ottawa County heading into Kent county…….

  17. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    Looks like a cell wanting to start to form off shore Ottawa/Muskegon Counties too……Maybe a start of something to come this evening……

  18. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Tornados on the ground in Coloarado

    1. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

      +1

    2. Steven, where in Colorado? My stepfather is out there for business in Colorado Springs…

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Northeast corner area I believe

        1. Yes, you’re right. Just saw it on TWC. Thanks :)

        2. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

          Yeah it is all in the North Eastern Corner of the state….

  19. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    It was good to have food off the grill.

    1. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

      +1 Gazillion!~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  20. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Another well below normal day in the books. Hopefully tomorrow will be the first above average day in May. It looks nice.

  21. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    Lots of Thunderstorms developing in West Michigan!!!!!!!!!!! WAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Some just off shore of Ottawa County and Muskegon County that will head towards Kent County!!!!! Grand Rapids get ready for some storms here in about 45 minutes!!!!! YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  22. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for Oceana and Newaygo Counties!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      That is a nasty little storm.

      1. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

        +1 Gazillion

        1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          60+ mph winds

        2. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

          Quarter Size hail too

  23. Severe Thunderstorm Warning north of here AGAIN! I wish they would come down here!

  24. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Just went out and watched the backside of the one that moved through Montcalm county. It’s dark off to the southeast as you can see upper level clouds moving, but there is quite a few lower level white clouds moving in opposite direction.

  25. John (Norton Shores) says:

    That rain came out of no where, pouring rain here right now.

    1. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

      There is storm development in Ottawa County and Muskegon county moving South East.

      1. John storms are forming right over you!

  26. Golfball size hail possible with the storm in Oceana!

  27. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Look out Hesperia, that nasty little cell is heading your way.

    1. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

      We had hail that was pea size with lots of cloud to ground lightning and pouring rain. I gestimate that we had close to 2″ of rain here today since the storms started early this morning.

  28. weather watcher Newaygo/Oceana says:

    Watching that storm that is heading my way…walked outside and I must say the temps are surprisingly chilly. So I am really surprised that this storm continues to look strong.

    Lots of thunder associated with this one.

  29. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    That Cell Over Very Far Northern Ottawa and Southern Muskegon County, I would bet gets a Severe Thunderstorm Warning with it soon!!!!!! It is getting very nasty looking!!!!!!!!!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      ???? doesn’t look anything severe to me?

      1. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

        Nope it has gotten weaker, your right on this one….I guess I was wishing a little too hard this time….

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          It’s okay to wish, I want a good storm too!

  30. Every radar scan that cell in Oceana gets worse. Hesperia is about to get blasted with hail

    1. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

      +1 Gazillion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      The warning also says 60mph winds, looks like Hesperia could lose their power and get damage to vehicles if parked outside because of the hail.

  31. Cliff(KZOO) says:

    Well today’s highs were well below then what was forecasted today!!! Will we get 80 tomorrow?

    1. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

      YES WE WILL…..I HOLD HIGH HOPES OF A 85 TOMORROW!!!!!!! THAT WARM FRONT IS AT THE BORDER!!!!!!!!! it is sitting at the I-80 corridor right now!!!!!

  32. weather watcher Newaygo/Oceana says:

    Well that storm didn’t amount to much. Mainly rain and thunder.

    1. matt says:

      Warm weather will be here soon. Who knew imagine that rock n roll is dead fantastic who knew just the facts i love it bring it

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        Thanks for listening and providing me the ultimate compliments! Keep up the good work fixxxer!!!!!

        1. matt says:

          Warm weather soon thanks for reading who knew imagine that

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Nothing but nice spring temps. No snow for 6 months. Who knew. Fantastic. I love it. Thanks for listening.

  33. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    What happened to the high temp forecasts for GR today?

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Fell 4 degrees below average.

    2. matt says:

      Warm weather soon hot days will be here soon who knew rock n roll is dead like winter just like winter who knew imagine that just the facts thanks for reading

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        You are pathetic! Keep it up you loser!

        1. matt says:

          Warm weather soon hot and humid will be here soon. Who knew imagine that winter is dead and so is rock just the facts. Break out the grills and beer its going to get warm. Get use to it or move i love it bring it….who knew……..imagine that

  34. Jack says:

    Look to The WEST for a Setting SUN at it’s BEST!! Stay Cued…… ;-)

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      YES! It was beautiful (and surprising after such a cloudy day)

  35. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Strong super cells in southern OK with tornado warnings. Heading towards, well, just guess.

  36. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Still getting quite a bit of thunder here in Montcalm county.

    Here’s a few pics of the normal sunset we get here, taken about 15 mins ago.

    http://i58.tinypic.com/2ujnyhl.jpg

    http://i61.tinypic.com/rbcwht.jpg

  37. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The clouds are moving out. I am hoping for near 80° tomorrow. Going back out to our camp site, to clean the camper. Hoping to start camping in about 1 1/2 weeks. Everyone have a good night, sweet dreams.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Nice pictures!!!!!

  38. jerry hoag(by the zoo) says:

    Tornadic Storm near Lexington Kansas…………………………………

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Lexington NE, it is very strong, radar showing possible debris ball, after moving through Miller NE.

  39. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    STRUCK OUT SWINGING. TIGERS WIN TIGERS WIN!!!!!!! 8 IN A ROW!!!!!!!

  40. Jack says:

    TIGERS WIN AGAIN…..20th of The Season !!! TIGERS REMAIN ON FIRE!!!!! Love IT…stay CueDD….

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      I think Victor hitting behind Cabrera is way better than Fielder.

    2. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

      The Tigers are looking great this year!!!!!!! 8 in a row!!!

      1. Jack says:

        Oh ~Sherry~………. It’s a Beautiful THING…..2014 World Series CHAMPIONS!!!!!??…..stay CUEDD….. FYI..Day Game Thursday, Weather PERMITTING……… :-)

    3. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Porcello is now 5-1, Tigers have the best record in MLB.

    4. Yes!!! Going to a game in July and cannot wait. I know a lot can change, but hoping they’re still killing it then :)

  41. Brian(Grandville) says:

    If G.R. makes 80 tomorrow, it will be the latest 80 reached in the year since the turn of the century.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Correction, since 1998.

  42. Elizabeth says:

    Bill – not sure what your source is for the claim that sea ice is ‘well above average’ – the National Snow and Ice Data Center information is clearly disagreeing with such a claim : http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Your link is only the Arctic. My link is to total GLOBAL sea ice: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg which looks to be around 1 million sq. mi. above average.

      1. Steve G says:

        Bill — the oceans are rising and you don’t seem to care. Take a look at this picture, dogs are even hang in the balance: http://i.imgur.com/ifWG2Rb.jpg

  43. Steven(DerbyLake) says:

    Just had 3 or 4 good rumbles of thunder here but nothing on the radar. Hmmm

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      A cell has just developed to the NE of Stanton.

      1. Steven(DerbyLake) says:

        I seen that but I can’t believe it is that active. Its becoming more frequent now. Really long rumbles.

  44. INDY says:

    Never even got close to 71* today out at thee YARDofBRICKS…Crazy May 8th now and our furnace still kicks on!! I just keep Drinking them sprites and feeling all right tonight!! INDYY!!

  45. Brian (Grandville) says:

    NFL draft, TPC Sawgrass,Tigers baseball. Tomorrow is action packed!

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      *today* rather, time to go to bed.

  46. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    The moderate risk is now out for tomorrow , could,get interesting for some ….Iowa / MN.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:
      May 3, 2014 at 1:33 pm
      I could see a low end Moderate Risk coming out of this later next week for Day 6 , as we have some time for this to get its act together. Might not be a bad time to catch a storm or two Kyle as this doesn’t look to be a large outbreak , but possible a decent set- up with minimal risk for you.

      * I don’t know why the SPC waited so long to issue the moderate risk , I could have told them that 5 days ago…lol. Okay maybe not …hehehe

      * Kyle chasing opportunity ??

Leave a Reply