Monday

May 12th, 2014 at 1:05 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Local 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook   7:10 am – Continuous thunder at my house.  Nice line of t-storms running NW to SE from Ludington to Coldwater…very heavy rain (overflowing my gutters!), vivid lightning.  Significant Weather Advisory.  Some ugly low-hanging scud – scary looking but not dangerous, not rotating.  I’m watching the show!    Here’s current radar and the Severe Outlooks for Day 1 and Day 2 from the Storm Prediction Center.  Check out the current Severe T-Storm and Tornado Watches, Meso-Discussions (often issued prior to a watch) and Storm Reports.   Leave a comment if you have/had any hail or high winds.

The overnight NAM (caribou) model gives G.R. 1/2″ of rain today into this evening and another 1/4″ on Tuesday.  Wednesday is dry, then the NAM brings us more rain and chilly temps. in the 40s for Weds. night/Thurs. AM – it gives Cadillac rain and 36° Thurs. AM (that’s getting close to snow!).  The GFS-plot does print out an inch of snowfall in the higher elevations west of Marquette.    The NAM gives G.R. upper 70s this aftn., low 70s Tues. and low 60s Weds.  The GFS-plot has daytime temps. mostly in the 50s from late Tues. to Sat.  It has showers today, Tuesday, Weds. night, Thurs. and then Friday into Saturday.  It has less rain – a little over half an inch for the week – looks a little shy on the rain to me.   I’m too tired to stay up for the European…I’ll update in the AM.  It’s not impossible that somebody could see some frost or even sleet/flurries later this week.  This from GRR NWS:   “WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS…NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THEN CUTS OFF AND UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH FOR SOME WET SNOW OR GRAUPEL IN ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT.”

I got the kayak out for the first time Sunday PM and went to Crockery Lake.  I first went to the boat ramp on the south end of the lake, but the parking places were full and I didn’t feel like pulling up on someone’s lawn (several had done that and it looked legal), so I drove around to the park at the NE end of the lake.   The lake level is up some…I could have taken my kayak down the creek outlet at the west end of the lake (it would have been hard to come back).  I saw two great blue herons…several couples of geese with their new, little yellow baby geese, ducks, fish jumpin’,  turtles sunning themselves on logs (some big ones)…walking thru the woods at Grose Park there are lots of trilliums (sounds like one of those exceptions to the “add s to make it plural” rule, but it’s not) in bloom, with blue/purple violets, marsh marigold, spring beauty and mayapples.  It looked like a little less than 50% of the docks/piers were in at the lake.  I could see they had lost a few trees in the April windstorm.  When I was there the wind was calm.  Voices carried across the lake and in the woods you could hear the hum of bumblebees – a relatively loud insect, but more docile than the yellowjackets that cause problems later in the summer.  I did not see a single mosquito or deer fly! The park was clean and well-maintained.  No one in the water (a few people fishing from the pier), but families having a picnic and kids playing on the playground – a happy Sunday crowd.  Very few blossoms yet on “The Ridge”.  Three rabbits ran across the road in front of my car…missed all three.   I saw some dark spots far away in a field that I’d guess were turkeys.   It’s nice to sit on my 3-season porch after a long winter – I come inside to watch our late news and Sports Overtime.

Flooding in Shenzhen, China.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where the snow has finally melted and the lake ice is gone. Here’s the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. Here’s Closings.

124 Responses to “Monday”

  1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    So Bill how was the view from your home , as I love that you still enjoy the show that Mother Nature provides. If I remember correctly you purchased a home on a hill and it’s west facing , that’s a great idea. !! Low contentment levels = happy happy happy!!!

  2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    You can really see how cold it is in the upper atmosphere as the first wave is now moving east….look at the blob moving our way later tonight ….
    IR

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      WOW…it’s going to be a fun here on Bill’s blog later on. lol

  3. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The sun is shining. This is like adding fuel to the fire. Let’s rock n roll, and hang on.

  4. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    The sun is out and I hear thunder….WOW.

  5. Jeff Northern Ionia County says:

    Wow the line of storms just before Madison Wisconsin looks to be pretty strong, if that holds together we could be in for a interesting afternoon. What time does everyone expect that line of storms to move into the area?

  6. fixxxer says:

    Cold rain up in stanton. Typical crappy spring.

    1. Cassie (Kentwood) says:

      At least there is no snow on the ground…here at least!

      1. fixxxer says:

        Not yet.

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          +1, I was going to type the exact same thing Fixxxer, LOL!

  7. Daniel G says:

    Just under an inch and half in the guage here on the east side of Myers Lake since the rain began this morning. Just had a major rainmaker go thru minutes ago. Heavy rain lasted about 15 minutes and also overflowed the eavestroughs. LAKE IS WAY UP THIS YEAR!!! And going up some MORE!

  8. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Update on the fire. There’s about 4 fire trucks, Stanton department, Montcalm township, Sheridan and a small Greenville one. Multiple volunteer trucks, one ambulance and one tanker. Luckily they are able to pump water out of the lake. I have an idea as to who’s place it is, but it actually looks like the large pole barn/loft style that is back there. It’s a remote area by the outlet. Probly about 15 minutes before that there was two HUGE crashes of thunder. I talked to someone and he seen a very large flash of lightening.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      I see a lot more lightning moving across the lake.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Do you think we will get any watches here in west Michigan?

      1. kentwoodchicken says:

        Larry, my egg inducing Stress-O-Meter says a definite probability! According to my calculations storms and watches will come at the most inconvenient of times, such as bike riding plans, outdoor bbq’s, bird watching expeditions and more! Cluckity cluck!

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          My flock has been in a tail spin or their tail feathers in a knot for the last few days, looking up at the sky and very nervous and LOUD!! So I think I agree with you Kentwood.

  9. Bnoppe says:

    Nice line west will it hold?

  10. kentwoodchicken says:

    BWAAK! Chicken wants to go for a bike ride in Kentwood, but thunder is making chicken chicken!

    1. Jack says:

      Just for U K.Chicken. ::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcQfy1SavdQ. Bwaaakkk…..stay CueDD…. ;-)

      1. kentwoodchicken says:

        BWAAK! Miss Hellfinger! Chicken remembers this series! Hence the good name of Chicken Man will live on! Thanks for this!

  11. haanstar says:

    just measured 2 inches of rain in Walker

  12. fixxxer says:

    All this rain and cool temps will ruin our chances later. Tad off on those 70s today to.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Blah blah blah……

  13. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    For those that are wondering if there will be some SVR warned stormed , I’m going to say yes and definitely , especially in areas that clear out for some time . I don think it will be high end SVR but rather hail , wind , lighting , heavy downpours …..! And I just read the most recent update to confirm my suspicions . See below…. Get ready lake shore and then areas to the east next up!!

    Mesoscale Discussion : 2PM MOVIE TIME LK SHORE !!!

    SEVRE WEATHER EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
    LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH THE LINE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
    NOW MOVING EAST THROUGH SRN WI. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED THIS LINE
    EXTRAPOLATES TO MID LAKE MI BY 2 PM AND TO THE LK MI SHORELINE
    SHORTLY BEFORE 3 PM… BUT IT WILL PROBABLY ACCELERATE A BIT. IT
    SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWFA BY 5-6 PM.

    0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KNOTS SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION WILL
    REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES EAST TOWARD LOWER MI. PLUS WE
    HAVE HAD SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND SB CAPES ARE NOW CLIMBING ABOVE
    1500 J/KG IN SW LWR MI. EVEN THOUGH THE WI CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
    LOOKS TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST… FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
    SWD ALONG THE SRN FLANK IN AREA OF BUILDING SFC BASED

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      OHHHHH I hope I hope I hope because I have been so LOVING these train of storms so far this morning, so soothing hearing the deep rumbling, hearing the rain and the birds singing BRING ON MORE EXCITEMENT!! YAY BABY! My geese knew something was brewing days ago OMG like I said last night I had to actually go out to their pen at 11:30pm to quiet them down, ever since that hail storm they have been very skittish about the weather, freaked out, don’t blame them when our kids trampoline went from one end of the yard to the other barely missing them and getting pelleted by the hail until we ran out there to scoop them up and put them in their pen and 1 got injured during it.

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Poor geese , they keep on going on the IR ( injured reserve ) as it can be dangerous in Mi and to think the poor guys just made it through winter , now it’s flying debris and hail. I hope we see a show ….stay tuned neighbor .

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          You bet you I am, especially at what is coming over the lake now. Come on sun shine down on us

  14. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Larry you are in a good location BTW. It will start northern cwa but then the stronger storms south and east viewing areas. Fun for all and more fun for some…. :)

    1. blharr44 says:

      Darren where are the finding the mesoscale discussion. I can’t find it anywhere

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        I found it on the NWS discussion for GR…..
        I think there were expanding on this one…..
        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0579.html
        NWS DISCUSSION:
        http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I don’t think it’s an official MD yet , but more an issuance or talking point from our local NWS. I didn’t see it on the SPC either.

  15. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I’m going to say for those living in the southern CWA you are guaranteed some SVR weather , it’s just a matter of when and where not if at this point.

  16. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    This watch area across the lake is what they think may extend if conditions continue as planned…

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0149.html

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      Trying to not get excited, but if these are elevated storms they should survive the lake

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        I hear ya Swatz I’m not banking on anything but I know many will receive some SVR weather. I’m interested to see how these storms redevelop after crossing and running into those with more instability. I’m thinking the best chances for SVR weather will be easy and south , just my Two cents , although some spots north could fire up as well.. I’ve enjoyed the storms e have already had , so anything more I’ll take it…. If I need to drive a little and the set up looks good , I’m game for that as well. Let my self off work early today..shhh don’t tell my VP…LOL

  17. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    The storms that are current across the LK and nearly straight across form the Muskegon area are only going to keep building south as this system moves closer even though storm movement is ENE . Watch for that storm line to fan out into southern lower Mi.

    1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

      I’ve been watching it, anxiously waiting to see what it will do.

      1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

        Have you gone up to Fisk Knob on Algoma/22 mile to watch storms moving in from the SW?? Pretty wicked :-)

  18. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

    Just issued from the NWS: severe thunderstorm watch until 10 P.M.

  19. Melinda says:

    Bill, when was the last time Grand Rapids had a middle of May 80+ degree temps, heavy thunderstorms followed by possible frost/freeze conditions 2-3 days later? My lilacs have budded, not sure they’ll like too much more cold :)

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      That’s a good question. In 1949 G.R. had a high of 88 on May 4 and a low of 33 on May 28.

  20. on the Grand says:

    Bill, on the river, there are 2 Canadian geese family. One family with 2 baby ducks and another family with 11 babies and I waste all my day watching them. Then I watched a baby hawk learn to fly. I can tell you that was fun and scary at the same time, I felt like its mom, screaming you can do it, he finally got the hang of it.

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