WRF/NAM Snow Forecast! Yikes!

May 14th, 2014 at 11:44 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

michigan tech trail cam lake superior ice coverModis Lake Superior  Check the WRF/NAM snow forecast – a little for NW Lower – significant snow for the higher elevations of the U.P. – probably way overdone, but still!  Earl Barker’s NAM shows maybe an inch in the higher elevations – looks better to me.  GFS has trace amounts in the U.P., with an inch west of Marquette around Herman.  Marquette National Weather Service says:  “…POSSIBLE WINTRY  PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY…POTENTIAL FOR  VERY LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH IS LOOKING A BIT MORE  LIKELY FOR SOME AREAS…PTYPE FOR THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIKELY  WOULD BE MOSTLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW…THOUGH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF  NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN COULD SEE JUST SNOW BY LATER AFTN.  Here’s the history of mid-late day snowfall in the U.P.

The image in the middle shows the mid-May ice cover on Lake Superior now down to 12.9%, which you can see on the MODIS Satellite picture on the right (from NOAA Coastwatch).  Note the lack of clouds over the cold lake.  You can also still see some snow on the ground in the Keewenaw Peninsula and north of Sault Ste. Marie.

This winter isn’t over until the fat snowman sings.


64 Responses to “WRF/NAM Snow Forecast! Yikes!”

  1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    At least the cold weather is helping out with my allergies. Yesterday tree pollen was very high and today it is absent. Enjoy it while it lasts!

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      +1…I usely don’t suffer from allergies, this year has been bad. I go see my doctor next week, I am going to get some allergy meds, over the counter doesn’t work too well.

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Ya , I’ve been hurtin for sure , and I really haven’t had any substantial allergies in years but this spring is kickin by tail….jeez as I wright this I sneeze…lol. It is a little better however but not much. Rain and below norm temps will be our guest as it’s feels this cold now has a spring / summer home in Mi and has applied for permanent residence . It is nice to see some leaves finally making their way on seen , it was looking quite baron and gray for a while but thinks are starting to turn green again. Maybe another good warm stretch towards the latter half off the month and we will be close to full spring bloom. :)

    3. Steve (N. Moline) says:

      I’ve been off my allergy shots for 10 years now and haven’t had a problem … until now. I hope I don’t have to start these up again. =/

  2. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Keep it north of here!

  3. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

    My wife and I have AT&T WiFi, we have service. They just said on Woodtv news widespread outage of AT&T internet, maybe WiFi isn’t included.

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      We have Charter here. It was working on my mobile WIFI connect. I had to run a diagnostic on the PC because it wouldn’t detect a connection. Works now.

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Larry if you have wifi at your home and not a ” hot – spot ” service which uses cellular connectivity , or put more simply if your connection comes form a cable or pbx / phone line and is then broadcasted through wireless tech you would not get service if your internet was down. Otherwise you would be good. :)

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        * I also should clarify if you are using old pbx for conduit , aka DSL you would okay ” if ” you were still receiving a connection as long as you were receiving a single from a local switch.

        1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          I didn’t think the Hastings area was that technically advanced. lol ;)

        2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Lol…that’s funny.

      2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        We’re OK…we are well advance here in Hastings. We are more advance than Freeport or Woodland, Cedar Springs or even Derby Lake…lol lol. Just kidding, most communities are almost advance with all the high tech.

  4. Zach says:

    And on the other side of the spectrum… TORNADO WATCH for Indiana


  5. bluegill says:

    A balmy 45 currently this afternoon in the Traverse City area. Our forecast is for rain mixed with snow Friday night. Highs in the 40′s the next few days but mid 60′s next week. Some of the buds are starting to open, but it likely will be next week until we see much in the way of leaves around here. Usually May 10 is when the cherry blossoms are out – maybe next week.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Way ahead of you here, already have leaves coming out.

  6. Kevin. w says:

    Its been very wet and cold here and very warm and dry out west. So I wonder if there will be a major flip toward late fall/2014 through spring/2015 with the extremes we’ve been in.

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Where have you been? I think we will see the effects of the El Nino later this summer. I have faith we will get warmer temperatures within 10 days or so, and say good bye to the cold/cool air.

  7. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Tornado warning in Ohio for Richland, Ashland and Knox counties. Most of Ohio and Kentucky are under a tornado watch along with Indiana counties that border Ohio and a couple in TN that border Indiana.

  8. Id hate to know how the turkey and deer population did up there in the UP this winter. The DNR can say what they want but the population down here shot down big time compared to normal. Although the DNR states there wasn’t a drop (yeah right). There also the ones that try to deny cougar pictures in Michigan by stating its a big house cat. Suuuree

    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:


      1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

        The DNR will also say there are no Bears in the Yankee Springs. I know some people been saying they see evidents of bears for years and other locations in Barry County.

  9. ~Sherry~ (Comstock Park) says:

    Hey, I love winter but enough is enough. I am ready for some heat and humidity! Some nice storms would be nice too!

  10. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Loving all the rain coming this way. We need it here! Last system produced a paltry .23″ at my house.

  11. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Looking at the WPC outlook for snow on day two gives ares in our far north-west CWA a chance of snow. Muskegon is in the 5-10% and hart is actually 20-30% contours , and it’s mid May……!

    Day 2 > ”


    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      On the west coast however they are looking at record high temps over 3′digits in So California and are currently under a heat advisory. The hottest May on record so far for “. San Diego since 1896..! ” ( read more below )


      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        All it will take will be a careless campfire or smoker – and California’s going to be on fire…. high temps and high winds :-(

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Yep you said it…I’ve experienced some of the worst fires in History while living in So Ca / San Diego , it was not good at all as we had two really bad years , one in 2003 ish and the other in 2007 I think . I lived on the beach in Carlsbad during the 2007 fire which nearly burned from the inland mountains to the beach , I couldn’t believe I was under a voluntary evacuation at the time and I live on the water. No bueno when it gets that dry and the Santa Ana winds get kicking it’s a recipe for disaster . I remember driving into a neighborhood in the Kearny Mesa area ( 2003 ) and we saw a 100+ wall of flame coming over the hills about 1/16 of a mile away and I could feel the heat from the fire , boulders were exploding from the intense heat not to mention the fire was moving at 30-40 miles an hour , pretty amazing.

        2. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

          Gun Lake/Yankee Springs areas been real lucky there never been any wildfires. I understand there has been some close calls.

        3. GunLakeDeb says:

          I don’t remember exactly when, but Hubby and I were driving south on the PCH between Carmel and San Simeon, and eyeballing a forest fire ahead… the restaurant we decided to stop at for lunch (right on the shore) was a staging area for firefighters; plus we got to watch helicopters dipping water in buckets, to dump just over the ridge that separated us from the flames. It was all pretty interesting!

          As we left the restaurant, a TV reporter came running up, asked if we could be interviewed (we didn’t care) – so I’m forever archived as the tourist, when asked if I was worried about driving the PCH during a fire, answered “I assumed the road would be closed if it was dangerous?”…LOL!!!

        4. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          Anyone know if its true that if your in a wildfire area, police or fire can force you to volunteer to fight the fire even if your not trained?

        5. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Ahh you were up in northern Ca. Bad fires up there to …(.the Berkley Fires were bad ). That’s a really nice are by Carmel ..

        6. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          That sounds a little extreme , but I did volunteer in 2003 in San Diego thinking I might get close to the action but that didn’t happen as I helped did a fire break a long ways from the good stuff. So in 2007 my friend worked for Ramona fire Dept and he gave me one of his shirts and I just blended in amongst all the chaos ….lol ( got to close that time, melted the paint on my friends truck ). Seems like,it would be hard to force someone against there will , especially around fire.

  12. Tom says:

    Great-now we will have to listen to Rocky’s comments when he gets out of school which should be soon!!

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      I don’t think it will happen btw , but interesting anyways and quite the contrast compared to the west coast. Looking forward to next week when we warm up once again. :)

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Tom, are you in love with Rocky?

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          He is just another fixxxer clone who is obsessed!

    2. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

      Give it a rest Tom.

  13. GunLakeDeb says:

    This is sort of a blah day – just cold and damp enough to not want to do anything outdoors. The good thing? The rain keeps washing the pollen off ours cars….LOL!!

  14. Jerry Hoag says:


  15. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Tigers win again!

  16. INDY says:


    1. Larry of Hastings, barry co says:

      Doing anything special on your birthday?

  17. INDY says:

    Drinking lots of sprites trying to get thee YARDofBRICKS ready for my INDY party!! INDYY!!

  18. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    SNOW in May! Imagine that! Keep the cold air rolling! I love it!

  19. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Brief cool down and then a nice warm up. I love it.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      The almighty Rodey aka fixxxer has spoken! Everyone bow down to the master of whining and complaining! What a joke!

        1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          + 100 trillion!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Thanks for paying attention and taking the time to comment. I love it. Fantastic. Thanks for listening.

        1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          Sadly we’re forced to.

        2. matt says:

          Rock is dead and so is winter warm weather soon fantastic thanks for reading

  20. Tom says:

    Great! The odd couple Rocky & Rodey are out of school!!

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Get a grip and grow up you loser!!!!!

      1. matt says:

        Warm weather soon imagine that who knew I love it bring it winter is dead like rock n and roll thanks for reading

      2. Tom says:

        A typical teenager response!

    2. Ned S. (East of Holland) says:

      You best lay off my buddy Rocky! He’s a winter weather expert.

      1. Tom says:

        Based on what???

      2. matt says:

        Warm weather soon

  21. Brenda (Otsego) says:

    Ahhhh…..this is a nice improvement from last week.

  22. Ansel says:

    This rain has been great for the morels!!!!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      My dad found a bunch late last week deep in the heart of the GR ghetto of all places.

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I found 3 over the weekend. I don’t really have a good spot though.

  23. matt says:

    Wow that’s amazing

  24. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    This is funny stuff right here-

    Like Verlander, Ausmus seemed intent on answering questions about the pitch in the most direct and brief way possible. What was his view of the pitch?

    “My view was from the dugout,” Ausmus said.

    Was their intent on Verlander’s part?

    “As skilled as these pitchers are at this level, balls get away from pitchers sometimes,” Ausmus said, “just like I’m sure the ball got away from Bud Norris.”

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