Summer Forecast – Climate Prediction Center

May 18th, 2014 at 8:30 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

CPC summer forecast 2014   This is the Summer Temperature Forecast (June/July/August) from the Storm Prediction Center.  They are forecasting a continuation of the pattern that we have had most of this year, with  higher probabilities of cooler than average  temperatures across the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and higher probabilities of above average temperatures on the three coasts and in the Southern Plains.  I’m on board with this basic pattern.  Now, this does not mean a “cold summer”.  It means that overall, we may be a degree or two cooler than average.  So, if the average high temperature for Grand Rapids in mid-July is 83°, then we might average 81° or 82°.  We’ll still have at least a few days that hit 90° and we’ll have a lot of comfortably warm days.  With a greater contrast of temperatures north to south – we should see some decent thunderstorm activity – which may center just south of Michigan across IL – IN – OH – maybe down into KY.  We’ll get some thunderstorms days here.  I think most people should enjoy the bulk of this coming summer.

90 Responses to “Summer Forecast – Climate Prediction Center”

  1. Barb says:

    As long as it’s on the 70s at least, I’ll be happy.

  2. “We’ll still have at least a few days that hit 90° and we’ll have a lot of comfortably warm days. With a greater contrast of temperatures north to south – we should see some decent thunderstorm activity”

    One of the best things I have read on these treads this year Bill!! Looking foreward to a great summer!

  3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the facts rolling! A cooler than average summer would be FANTASTIC!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Fantastic news. Plenty of 80′s and some 90′s. A warm summer. I love it. Fantastic. Bring it. Who knew?

    2. matt says:

      Warm weathet soon thanks for listening

  4. Kevin. w says:

    Are you sure Bill because back in the fall of 2013 no one was forecasting the kind of winter we just went through. For all I know we could have two things happen: 1)It could end up being a very wet cool/cold summer 2)It could end up being very dry and very hot. Right now I’m not buying anything out past 14 days on anyone. It seems these long range forecasts never pan out the way they are forecasted. Plus meteorologists are talking about the upcoming El Nino this winter and we know how this past winter forecast went. I think tomorrow is forecasted to be mostly sunny and around 70 as of right now, but we may want to throw in a partly cloudy with a chance of something or other. :)

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Kevin I don’t think anyone is sure about anything , otherwise it would be a now – cast not a forecast , but what Bill is saying does make since however no guarantees as you elude to.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      It’s seldom you’re “sure” of a seasonal forecast. The cold spring was a pretty sure bet, given the prevailing pattern and the ice on the Great Lakes. I said 90% sure of a cool spring back in February – I don’t think I’ve ever gone that high.

      I think the warm water holds the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska down the West Coast. You would then have a downstream trough. The heat/drought in Texas may abate with more rain. Water temps. are a touch cooler than average off Texas now. So, I wouldn’t bet on a “hot” summer in the Great Lakes. Near to a little below average I think is a good guess (and that’s what it is – an educated guess). Rainfall could be a little lean across N. Michigan and heavier than average in what I think will be the mean thunderstorm belt across IL, IN, OH and the Ohio River Valley.

      1. HC says:

        You’ve got the best “educated guess” that I will listen to! Some people are still cranky from this wicked winter and chilly spring… Which is not your fault! Keep up the forecasting, please! I’m listening! ☀️☁️⚡️

      2. Kevin. w says:

        It was just a humorous type stuff I was writing nothing serious guys. Its just a pattern of extremes and they seem to be very hard to forecast. Have a good day.

  5. Going to be buying myself my own car soon! It will most likely be a 2011 Ford Fusion. Not sure on the color yet. Debating between Blue, Black, and Red. I even thought about a Yellow too Lol!

    Any thoughts?

    Here is a pic of the car I want off Google:

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fd/2012_Ford_Focus_SEL_sedan_rear_–_2011_DC.jpg

    1. Jack says:

      SILVER,,,Just like The PIC. ;-)

      1. Haha ok one vote for Silver.

        And FYI, I am staying away from the color White!

      2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Black is always a great color , I’ve had many Black vehicles but it does depend on the car and where one lives does factor in as well. If you wanted any purchasing pointers I would be happy to help , although the internet is pretty powerful these days. :) ( always good to be prepared )

        1. Ill happily take any pointers you have if you don’t mind sharing!

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Love the silver! But get what you feel you like best! :)

      1. Haha ok 2 votes for silver! I like silver as well. Just getting feedback. I am at a 1998 right now so this car will be luxery lol

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      Sorry, Kyle – I like silver or gold. Having owned cars in both colors – they DON’T show dirt; and stay cooler in the hot summer sun.

      Nothing is more beautiful than black – WHEN IT’S CLEAN. And since it shows EVERYTHING – you’ll be a slave to it, to keep it looking good….LOL!!

      And those are really nice cars, by the way!! Wish I had one on our car lot to sell you.

      1. Thanks Deb for your thoughts! Dirt is the the problem with black, but boy does it look nice :) Lol

        1. I actually right now own a car that is the color Red. Boy is that a cop catcher..Lol

      2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Ahhh, don’t listen to GLD she is actually making to much rational since ….. Lol. You are young Kyle so if Black is what you like then you should go with that , however sounds like you are going the pre-owned route so it’s good that you like different colors and that’s how you should shop. ( unless you have lots of time ). Let’s say you find a Blue 2011 with only 6,000 miles that you really like and the car checks out , and you can purchase for a fair price , then blue might be your color … GLD is correct in what she says about the colors she mentioned , and spoken like a professional but like I said you are young and it sounds like you have different colors you enjoy….Happy hunting and have your ducks in a row before you make an investment , so as to stay away from making a decision strongly on emotion .

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Lol….I just opened your link Kyle and I saw a new car , my bad as I just saw 2011 within the link and assumed you were not going with a new car. Anyways same stuff applies except now get whatever color your heart desires . !!! ( color is a personal decision , kinda like girls ..lol. )

        2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          With that said…Buy Black , you will love it !!!! hahaha.

        3. This will be a 2010-2011 Darren but I am going to buy it used though because I am finding used ones at a decent price.

        4. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Okay , well back to my previous comment , if you had a chance to read it. I’m happy to throw advice your way , although I understand many like to do things on there own accord , just always like to look out for my friends on the blog.

        5. Opps wrong link.

          Here is the right one: http://dealerrevs.com/gallery/57038510.html

          Ok, NOW I am done after taking up half the page Lol

        6. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I would narrow it down to two – three colors unless your are dead-set , but look at the paint in person as it often looks different . Anyways I could go on for ever….enjoy looking for your new vehicle and take your time!! Black is a great color , as I have owned 4 black cars and still have one currently. Silver / shades of are always good if you like it…….but it sounds like you want something that is unique to you soo….. I’m done. Lol

        7. I appreciate your thoughts and suggestions Darren! I will take them in account that is for sure. I will contact you if I need any other pointers or suggestions. Thanks again!

        8. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Nice car !!

      3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        GLD…..as I’m sure ya already know my comments weren’t meant to under mind your professions opinion , I just happen to really enjoy black cars and didn’t mind the work but in time I might change my tune ….hehehehe

      4. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        From one car Guy / Gal to another……this is for GLD. :)

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          No offense – just offering Kyle the opinion of someone who drives a LOT of different cars….LOL!!

          And to Kyle: even though we don’t have what you want on the lot – we’d be more than glad to give you an idea of a fair price on a specific vehicle ;-) After all – we know what the wholesale cost is!

        2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Ya , I hoped you would take it as I was kidding with ya , as your always seem to have a great since of humor. I was in the retail side of car business for about ten years ( mostly management , so if your looking for a great desk guy, J/ K ). I still work directly with dealers but now work on the DMS side of things , I’m sure your favorite topic . Lol

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        +1 best colors

    4. Black or silver, in my opinion :)

      1. Not sure why that posted twice…sorry :)

  6. John (Norton Shores) says:

    I am almost certain we will have at least 1 90 degree day this summer and maybe more, but that’s too hot for me, 70′s and 80′s are perfect for me! :)

    1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

      To me 85° for a daytime high and 68° for the low is the way to go! Now that’s is summer time.
      SlimJim

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      80 as a high and 65 as a low for me, close to what you like haha :P :)

  7. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    This is the spring of the ” tiny ” slight risk areas or very focused rather. Lol ( second one this year )
    SPC : Day 2 ( Scottsbluff , NE )
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    1. I remember when you showed me one of these same ones about 2 moths back…..Lol

      Comment was supposed to go here

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Lol…I wish we could have one just over our cwa , like 3 days a week all spring. hehe

  8. I remember when you showed me one of these same ones about 2 moths back…..Lol

  9. AlleganJoe says:

    I believe it might be mostly in the mid-upper 70′s and at times 80-82…then down to 70′s again for several days. A back/forth type of Summer. Into 80′s then punished for it by dropping into the 70′s…..LOL…. :)

  10. mr. negative says:

    Cold, wet, and storm free through the calendar…

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Have you even seen this week? You call this week cold?

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Not cold. Average.

  11. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Long range seasonal guesses are always hard to make. So that said the only way we can look ahead is to look back. Here in Grand Rapids the official readings have made it to 90° or better even in most cool summers (but not all summers) has it gotten to 90 or better here in GR one that I know of for sure is the summer of 1951 that summer the warmest it got in GR was just shy of 90 at 89° and in July of 2009 the warmest it got was 84° But it did get to 96° in June that year. Any way history tells us it’s a good (but not sure) bet that GR will hit 90 sometime this summer. That might not be the case off to our north where many a summer comes and goes with out a 90° day. So we will have to see how this summer plays out. Also the term (cooler by the lake) will be common for a long time this summer as well. Remember there is still ice on lake Superior and that water drains into the lower lakes.
    SlimJim

  12. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    One thing of the personas that comment on this blog is that during the summer time when we do get a hot day or so is how many of the personas complain on the heat and just this past winter we had snow and cold for almost 5 months in a row and how many were compiling on the cold? I would just like to point out that from June to September for the most part Michigan has very nice weather and even early fall can still be nice. But from mid November to March the weather in Michigan is not so nice its either cloudy, windy rainy, snowy or cold and on many days it all of them. So get out and enjoy the upcoming summer we have coming the days we have here are so few we have to get out and enjoy ever one of them.
    SlimJim

  13. Jack says:

    Here is a Tune, For The Month of MAY!! ” May”be U will Remember it Depending on Your AGE, of Course !! CUE::: Strolling Through the Park (1884) – One Man Barbershop … – YouTube
    ► 1:20► 1:20
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noBLXQY4yuA. Happy, Sunday ,,,, on This MAY Evening …stay CUEDDD. ;-)

  14. Barb DeCoe says:

    As long as the sun shines!

  15. tyler says:

    Posting from Bridgeport michigan tonight at a baymont inn and suites just off of interstate 75. We are on our way to Cleveland tomorrow for the tigers game. 68 in Gaylord on the way down. Going to Tonys restaurant tomorrow morning for breakfast in birch run.

  16. Jack says:

    IN BILL WE TRUST !!!! We’ll have a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Monday night, Tuesday and Tuesday night.  They will be scattered and most of the time it won’t be raining, but most areas should see ¼ to ½-inch of rain during that time.  The last of the showers clear out very early Wednesday and we’ll become partly to mostly sunny and pleasant for most of Wednesday and all of Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  We should have a great start to the Memorial Day Weekend.  High temperatures will be in the mid 60s Thursday, low 70s Friday and mid 70s Saturday and Sunday.  We do have a chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Memorial Day/Monday. STAY CUEDD….. & Thanks for The MARVELOUS Forecast BILL !!! See ya at Thee YARDofBRICKS ???.. On MAY 25……. Sunny & 75** Sounds GRRREATTTT!!! ;-)

  17. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    GO TIGERS!!!!!!

    1. Jack says:

      Oh Yeah,,, Talk about a Team that is ” RUNNING” on ALL CYLINDERS !!! WOW!! LOVE IT !! Can U 2014 WORLD CHAMPIONS!!!??? Stay CUEDDD……This is THE YEAR for OUR TIGERS!!!! :-)

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      No kidding! 11 in a row in the road. Just need to get rid of Coke and Romine.

      1. Brian (Grandville) says:

        YES!

    3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Go A’s….

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        The 2nd hottest team in MLB. :-) They’re having another good year.

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Yup , thanks for the curtesy nod , the only problem being is your Tigers tend to send us packing for Oakland . I can thank ” Billy Ball ” for that as it just drives me crazy because of how well it works and doesn’t at the same time . I understand the concept but at some point you have to do as your team does ( Detroit Tigers ) and break out the contract money for the players that will get you to the next level. Until that day comes we shall fall short time and time again. ( and we hv the fan base to justify )

      2. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Detroit plays at Oakland next week. 4 games I think. Then they go to Seattle.

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Yes , I might be flying home during that time. Thanks for the heads up , I would love to catch a game. They shouldn’t have a problem with Seattle , I hope they do with my A’s however…..Oakland A’s fans are very passionate , good crowd , unlike the darn Raider Fans as they are obnoxious . Lol

  18. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Great weather for the next several days! The sunshine and warmer temps will be awesome to have. Bill said chance of storms tonight and into Tuesday. He also sa66 id it would not be raining all the time. How about those Tigers?

  19. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    *said. My cursor was going all over the place. Tigers have won 6 straight! Now, they have the best record in baseball!

  20. SBPortage002 says:

    Love the last paragraph from the NWS…

    BOTTOM LINE IS DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

    They also cite the CPC 6-10 day which calls for well above average temps.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Like – except the dry part , would like some flash / bangs mixed in.

  21. INDY says:

    Strong storms tonight!! Stay tuned!! INDYY!!

  22. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Storms….hmmmmm. After reading the SPC outlooks over the next two days I’m left kinda scratching my head. Today storms look to stay to our east and north which is fairly plain to see , although some of these storms should be elevated in nature so some could slide across the lake , mostly to our north if at all. Tomorrow looks like the best chance for our viewing area however instability may be a question , so will we see a traditional storm shedding event or will some be elevated in nature , this I can not tell attm. Of course I’m rooting for the storms to win over!!! :)

  23. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Updated climate data for May, so far.

    Grand Rapids: -2.5°
    Lansing: -2.1°
    Muskegon: -2.0°
    Detroit: -0.1°
    Flint: 0.4°
    Alpena: -3.0°
    Houghton Lake: -2.3°
    Sault Ste Marie: -5.2°
    Marquette: -4.0°

  24. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    If we’re talking long-term, Paul Douglas from Minneapolis wrote yesterday:

    “With a strong El Nino brewing I’m betting on an unusually mild autumn. I also suspect next winter won’t look anything like what we just muddled through.”

    Here’s CPC for next fall/winter. I think they agree. Looking warm:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Since no one alive has experienced the winter like we just had I figure that is a safe prediction :)

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        That’s funny DF as that was my thought exactly , way to make a bold prediction Paul D. And thanks for passing the insightful information along Travis. Lol

        1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

          An unusually mild autumn is a pretty bold prediction, in my book.

        2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I was just givin ya a hard time….not that bold however. But a prediction it is…

    2. Jacob G says:

      With current SOI values for May does not show strong El Nino coming on. Using current SOI values for May points to the 76-77 El Nino like event. With warm pool of water off of Alaska will continue to build up higher pressures once we get into cold season again.

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      A lot less orange than the Nov-Jan 2013-2014 prediction that was completely wrong.
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools/briefing/verification/2013/fcst_Temp.01.201312.gif

      1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

        LOL… Surprised they didn’t lose their jobs over that one. Way too funny, especially since that forecast was issued only a few months before the winter.

      2. GunLakeDeb says:

        LOL!!! We *WISH*……..

    4. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      They always seem to predict above average temps. One time I looked though and every single forecast period was showing above average temps… and that was last year, before this winter. They really should try not to have a bias.

  25. Rockdy (Rockford) says:

    Rocky, this is just for you. Remember when you said just 2 short days ago that we wouldn’t make 80 degrees here until AT LEAST mid June? Splendid prediction. Fantastic! I love it! Thanks for listening! Have a super day!!

    LONG TERM…(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
    ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

    FOR THOSE WHO LIKE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
    IT WOULD SEEM THEY WILL SEE WHAT THEY WANT. IT LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR
    PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER HERE
    STARTING NEXT WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 AS SOON AS SUNDAY
    AND WARMER STILL MONDAY AND BEYOND.

  26. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    Everybody needs to chill out about this Summer, it may not be a scorcher but we will have plenty of days in the 70′s – 80′s.

  27. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    After these Heating Bills from the Past $hit Winter. Im in no hurry to fire the A/C up any time soon.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      For those of us on a budget plan from Consumer’s (they add all your bills for a year then divide by 12) – we’ll be paying for the winter of 2013/14 NEXT winter, too – after it gets figured into the estimated payments :-(

      1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

        I started paying my own utilities four years ago (after about 25 years in apartments). I was pleasantly surprised at how low my heating bills are (Michigan Gas Co.). My biggest bill last winter was $98.21 (February). When my furnace guy helped me pick a new furnace a couple of weeks ago, he looked at my bills for the past 24 months and said the extra cost for a high-efficiency furnace just wouldn’t be worth it for me. (My gas bills for the past 24 months averaged $42.27 a month.)

        And I keep the thermostat at 73 or 74 degrees.

        But I am unpleasantly surprised at my electric bills (Consumers Energy) lately. They’ve been averaging over $60 a month. As far as I can tell, I hardly use any electricity. Maybe it’s a matter of Obama keeping his promise in 2008/2009 that he would make the cost of electricity “skyrocket”? I dunno. Or maybe I had unrealistic expectations.

        Rad – I have had one and now I have a second one (delivered today) of these air conditioners: http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0085YEKHM/ref=pe_385040_30332190_TE_M3T1_ST1_dp_1

        Estimated Yearly Operating Cost of $45. So I don’t worry much about the cost of running the air conditioner(s). When I wanna be, I’m cool, man (heh).

        I am going to guess that most of you guys’ utilities bills are much higher than mine, and I can understand why. I live in a 900 ft2 mobile home and I live alone, retired.

        1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

          6 thousand BTU is a nice size. dosnt have to work as hard as a 5 thousand btu. I have a portable one think its 6000 BTU just roll it from one room im in for the night and it has like a dryer vent that you just put in the window. water evporates as the warm air goes out. BUT its 12amp and its not cheep to run.

  28. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

    I hope everyone is enjoying this beautiful day! I love the summer forecast- not too hot & not too cold. Easy on the a/c.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      +1

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