Monday PM

May 19th, 2014 at 12:07 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

muskegon glerl1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook  The picture on the left is from Saturday noon at the Muskegon Channel  -  lots of boats out for the first time.  The severe weather outlooks are here for this PM/NIght and for tomorrow.  We have a “See Text over the S. Lake Michigan area.  The Storm Prediction Center says:  “INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS STRONG HAS PROJECTED BY LATEST NAM WHERE MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS LEAD TO SBCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD EFFECTIVE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LOWER AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE FOR WIND/HAIL. IF MODEL FORECAST BUOYANCY VERIFIES THEN SEVERE PROBS WILL BE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.”   At 1 PM, it’s 68° in G.R. and 57° on the beach in Muskegon.

Also:  Look at the hail in São Paulo, Brazil (link fixed).  There’s still 7% ice cover on Lake Superior.   Time-lapse of supercell thunderstorm in eastern Wyoming – note the rotation, but no tornado.   Interesting fact….the water temperature of Gun Lake (beach at the state park) was warmer on March 19, 2012 than today (May 19th, 2014).   Duststorm incoming!   Dramatic flooding in the Balkans.  Record fewest # of tornadoes in Oklahoma – so far this year just 5, average is 55.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where the snow has finally melted and the lake ice is gone. Here’s the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. Here’s Closings.

69 Responses to “Monday PM”

  1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    FIRST!!!

    Meteor storm this weekend??? Stay tuned

    1. Jack says:

      Will New Meteor Shower This Weekend Sizzle or Fizzle?
      Space.com‎ – 4 hours ago
      STAY CUEDDD………. ;-)

    2. Jack says:

      Daily Digest
      Michigan may be best place in country to view Saturday’s meteor shower
      Bay City Times ‎- 38 minutes ago
      A meteor shower is expected between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. this coming Saturday May 24, 2014. With a large area of dry air in place over the Great …
      STAY CUEDDDDD………….. ;-)

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Couple weeks ago it was being advertised as a meteor storm. I see they have backed off a bit on it. Must be the 200 year time table has gotten to them ;)

    3. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’ll get up and watch – I’m blessed with nice dark skies at my house!

  2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    The “hail in Sao Paulo” is a dead link.

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      +1

  3. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

    It is great to see the boats back out on the big lake. Love the photo.

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    69 degrees all the way from Flint to Traverse City currently. I’m sure they are loving this weather up north.

    One of the warmest spots in Michigan is oddly enough, Mio, at 73 degrees.

    Perfect day!

    1. Brad says:

      I’ve always wondered if that 112F reading for Mio on July 13, 1936 is legitimate…

      1. Irish coffee says:

        # was adjusted for inflation ;)

        1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

          Heh.

      2. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        With a SW wind it can (and does) get very hot at times in NE Michigan. As to if it got to 112° or not that is hard to tell. Ever wonder why most state wide records both high and lows are from small towns?
        SlimJim

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      While we’re talking about it – is it pronounced “Mee-yo” or “Mye-yo” ???

      1. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

        My-o is how you pronounce it.
        Slimjim

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Welcome back 70′s.

    The UP sure is warm today. Currently 75 degrees in Munising.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I wish that “warmth” would work it’s way down here. Still haven’t hit 70 today yet.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Then again, Wisconsin is all 50s and 60s currently, and most of Indiana is in the 60s currently.

  6. I clicked over to 70 finally! This stretch of weather is actually perfect timing. In 3 days I will be completely done with my K-12 schooling. Crazy! At least there will be good weather to celebrate!

    1. Irish coffee says:

      Congrats! My 17 y.o completing high school (So Haven) Fri…..2 down ; 2 to go (kids)

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Congrats!!! I still remember being SOOOO glad to be done with high school :-)

    3. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Congrats. Now real school begins :)

  7. GunLakeDeb says:

    LOL, Bill – the Gun Lake water temp in March 2012 was probably warmer than most of the AIR temps we’ve had in May this year :-) *Most* years, the temp on the west side is in the low 70′s by the first week in May…..

  8. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    So much for the theory that the computer generated CPC models over the weekend were not to be trusted.

    The mild temps keep on in today’s update:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Looking good. I’ve been spoiled by the few hot days.

    2. Jacob G says:

      The latest Euro is in agreement out to 10 days. I think GRR may break our 6 month below average month. Going to be close but after Memorial day we could see several days in the 80s which will feel almost summer like. June should start out near to above average. Great time for the farmers to plant, I am giving all clear on frost for the year!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Weather-wise, today is the unofficial start of summer in my book.

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          I SOOOOOOOOOOO want to believe that!!!!!!!!!

        2. Jack says:

          Ahhh, How Miss The SUMMERS in NORTHERN MICHIGAN, When I was a KID….in Lake CITY, MI CUE …..THIS KID :::: Kid Rock – All Summer Long [OFFICIAL MUSIC VIDEO] – YouTube
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwIGZLjugKA
          TURN IT UP FOLKS!!!

    3. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I hope that pans out. I think we’re all ready for an extended stretch of warm weather. We’ve suffered for way too long.

  9. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Thought this was kind of interesting. Even the sharks go south for the winter.

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/05/19/great-white-katharine-tagged-in-cape-cod-found-3685-miles-in-south-florida/?intcmp=latestnews

  10. Jack says:

    BOOOMERS…. 2 our West…… http://www.lightningstorm.com/explorer_files/lts-image.jpg?foo=1400534867786. When, will They arrive HERE??? Stay CUEDD….. ;-)

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Jack I’m not sure we have much of shot at boomers as we just don’t have much instability at all. I think the best chance will be tomorrow late afternoon / evening as the cold front pushes through( and surface heating ). Unfortunately however I’m thinking the lake will influence these storms as the southern viewing area / eastern counties are going to have the best fuel for storms and maybe a few moderate to strong storms within that same area. For us in the northern tier / GR , I don’t like our chances at least as of now but maybe a few develop to our east but not much for us I don’t think. :(

  11. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    We may see the see text move to a slight risk area tomorrow , and I would think if it did Mi would be mostly outside that 15% area except maybe to our far south , we shall see! but I’m not to encouraged by what I see especially for us to the west and north. Grrrrrr
    Frustrating !!

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

  12. Still a chance we may get a slight risk area. As of now there not thinking so but things may change so stay tuned.

    LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS NEBULOUS OWING
    TO MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE LLJ REMAINING
    WELL-DISPLACED TO THE S OVER THE OH VALLEY TO OZARK PLATEAU. THE
    GLANCING PERIPHERY OF MINIMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO
    THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY FOSTER
    SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT ALONG
    THE NRN EDGE OF THE EML PLUME/STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION. SHOULD
    THIS OCCUR…40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
    UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND…WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
    UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. BUT WITH
    LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE ON IF/WHERE STORMS MAY FORM ALONG
    WITH SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR ASCENT…WILL DEFER TO LATER
    OUTLOOKS ON A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.

    1. fixxxer says:

      Maybe we just want sun and 80s. Not storms all the time. storms usualy mean yet another cold front is coming. No thanks.

  13. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the 70′s coming! Great week to work out side and or to go GOLFING! Imagine that! Still no 80′s in sight for this week! It was all hype and wish casting!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Fantastic. Temps at or above average for most of this week and some 80′s possible next week. Imagine that. Who knew? Bring it. I Iove it.

    2. matt says:

      Warm weather soon the real good news is rock n roll is dead and warm weather will be here soon thanks for listening

    3. fixxxer says:

      This blog is a joke with rj “i need attention” on here.

  14. I honestly cannot remember such a quiet spring for severe weather where I live here in Byron Center. I have not been included in a severe warned area yet which usually I have by now. If we don’t get any strong storms tomorrow we have to wait again. Crazy quiet strech for storms. I hope it picks up or I guess Ill chase in Indiana and Illinois

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Keep the storms away from West MI – bring on the sun and temps in the 70′s! Simply perfect!!!

      1. Well I like storms. They are simply perfect!

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Yes bring the storms , and don’t be a hater Rocky as you wished for all the winter storms or at least don’t route against them… Only fair! hehe. ( I happen to enjoy both )

      2. matt says:

        Warm weather soon thanks for listening

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I’ve been in 4 severe warned storms now, I’d say Muskegon county is above average now. Your right for your area it has been quite quiet which is odd because usually you get more storms there than here in Muskegon county.

      1. I am thinking the focus will shift for areas south of GR as we head into the summer as bill has stated. The best overall chance for severe weather will be south of I-94 though. In the summer Byron Center seems to get a lot of training thunderstorms that go over the same area. Idk if it has something to do with the fattest part of the lake or what but we get them a lot

  15. Best 6-10 day prediction I have ever seen this year! I hope it keeps coming! Just got to slid the 80′s into our area which looks likely for this time next week!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    Best 6-10 day prediction I have ever seen this year! I hope it keeps coming! Just got to slid the 80′s into our area which looks likely for this time next week!

    1. Oops idk why it posted below the link

  16. Does anyone remember back when southern Kent, Northern Allegan, and Southern Ottawa used to get all of the derechos? We get a lot of them here (Probably higher than many areas in Michigan). I miss the derechos here. We used to get them a lot and our power always went out. My power has not gone out now in the past 3 years. The last time it went out was in a derecho in 2011 in which the powerlines fell over the road right in front of my house. The whole power pole snapped

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I am sure any summer now there will be a derecho were long over due, I’d rather a nice thunderstorm with lots of lightning and thunder and hail than those strong winds that knock trees and power lines over, but yet again we are way over due for some sort of derecho to cross the lake and hit West Michigan.

      1. Yeah I agree that we are overdue.

        Hard to believe, in 2013, we had our first tornado warning on May 28. Thats only 9 days from now. We are getting to that time of year where more and more tornado warnings will be issued. June seems to be our peak tornado warning month.

        Berrien County takes #1 with getting tornado warnings. #2 I would say is Kalamazoo Co. #3 Barry Co., #4 Allegan County, and taking #5 I would say is Kent. That my opinion though. In my years of watching news 8. I dont recall seeing Oceana under one but I am sure they have, The northern row of counties rarely gets tornado warnings, which is good, because we don’t need them but warnings make a storm exciting

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          I would maybe replace Kent with Calhoun, in the #5 spot. I also think there will be more severe storms in the mid to late summer for us this year.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Derechos – ugh. We had a roof installed – and discovered later that the shingles were defective – they didn’t seal down. Every time we got a big wind – we lost shingles – and there’s and evil twist to Murphy’s Law that says that an airborne shingle ALWAYS hits the shiny surface gravel side down :-(

      That’s when I got really serious about weather-watching (to warm the neighbors to park upwind of our house) – and probably why wind sort of freaks me out….LOL!!

      We finally gave up – it was cheaper to replace the entire roof, than try to sue Georgia Pacific. I now have a screwed-down hurricane-proof roof.

      1. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Some roofers do it Texas style. Only putting 3 nails in a shingle. It saves them time. You must have been one of their victims.

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          Nope, 4 nails per row, 8 total per shingle. The tar strip never sealed. And they were 35-year shingles, too :-(

        2. GunLakeDeb says:

          I should add that I have the same shingles on my garage (just a different batch installed a month later) and they’ve been perfect

        3. Brian (Grandville) says:

          35 year old shingles were due for a warranty expiration, unfortunately.

  17. mr. negative says:

    Overcast…rain…

  18. fixxxer says:

    This may shape up to be the worst summer we have had since ive lived here. Get ready for some fixxer bitchin people. ;)

    1. Jeff (Portland) says:

      oh my …

  19. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Raining here now. Had a good blast of wind for 2 or 3 minutes.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Same here in Cedar nice little push of air from the front…

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        I wondered what that smell was ;)

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