Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms

May 20th, 2014 at 2:48 am by under Bill's Blog, News, Weather

Local 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook   Midday Update from SPC:  “IF AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE MATURES BENEATH THE STRONG SPEED MAX A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF INSTABILITY REFLECTS LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.   Bill says:  “especially watch the I-80 corridor north to I-94 corridor from E. Iowa to NW Ohio.  Timing for storms in W. Michigan would be after sunset.  Canadian model has highest rainfall along I-94.  Most of the afternoon should be dry.

uch of Southern Lower Michigan is now in the Slight Risk Area for Severe Thunderstorms for later this afternoon and tonight.  The area is south of a line from Holland to just west of Ann Arbor to Monroe to Cedar Point.   SPC says:  “THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR A SFC TROUGH IN ERN IA AND NWRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS…MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING…THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL…NRN IND REACHING CNTRL OH BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.   Our in-house microcast has the main batch of t-storms coming in after sunset, with the heavier activity south of I-96.

Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where the snow has finally melted and the lake ice is gone. Here’s the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. Here’s Closings.

263 Responses to “Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms”

  1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    So no mention of a moderate risk in the last update , as It didn’t look to promising for an upgrade , but we are talking about the atmosphere so anything can and will happen. It really seems this event will be much to the south and along 1-80 at least in our neck of the woods. The forecast from the SPC is not one where you feel a strong level of confidence , especially for MI , where I think the timing will be the main issue for us ….. They are predicting good mid – level cape at around 1500-2000 kg in ares that can climb around the 80′s and a fair amount of moisture but somewhat limited in areas. Be interesting to see what things look like 3 hrs from now, to our south -west.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Sorry I – ” mixed -layer cape “

  2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Paul and Bill talked about this storm in the wee hours of this morning on another thread. Check out the time lapse:

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/3577598100001/amazing-time-lapse-video-of-supercell-thunderstorm/#sp=show-clips

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Ya , I watched a couple versions and how crazy / amazing our atmosphere is…this is a great example of a supercell coming to life through different stages only to later dissipate back into the ” sky ” . Very cool and so much better in person as it’s hard to translate onto vid , especially the scope of the event but still awesome.

  3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Seems as far as the model consensus goes they seem to be giving more confidence to the ECMWF although still only slightly better than average attm.

    1. Jack says:

      HEY DarrenSVRstm……. Have You Heard The News (Good Rockin’ Tonight) – YouTube
      ► 2:31► 2:31
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jeqlL3zuWc
      Hee. Heeee……. ;-) . stay CUEDDD.. ;-)

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Reminds me of New Orleans …. :)

  4. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Up to 78 degrees in GR… Nice!

    1. Dave says:

      The sun is trying real hard to burn through the clouds

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Very nice indeed…!! I believe this should be a good old fashion light show , SVR storms limited , but a fun flash / bang show with the best areas being k-zoo and south….. Thunderstorm outlook early morning hours….looks good

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/imgs/enh_0400.gif

  5. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    82 here and my dew point is WAY up at 64 already. Tons of sunshine, and humid. We need the rain badly, but I don’t want the hail or the winds. Hoping for some epic thunder and lightning.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Badly need the rain? Really?

      I’m at 5″ of rain for May already!

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        Flint is at 4.99″ for the month. You’re almost there.

    2. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      It hasn’t rained here as much. Been having to water the garden. 84 now, here at my house weather station.

  6. John (Norton Shores) says:

    72 here right now, but very humid!

  7. Jack says:

    ” Get out The Fiddle, Rosin Up The Bow,!! Getting Ready to Watch GOD’S OWN LIGHT~ SHOW”"”"—- ********. Stay CUEDDD……… ;-)

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Jack Brother maybe some good boomers tonight!!!!!!!!!???????????? Im keeping my fingers crossed…

      1. Jack says:

        Yeaaaaaaa Jerry ….I’m keeping ” Cues Crossed” for a House Shakin, heart pumping, Thunder !! With Tons of “EYE CANDY” Lighting UP The SKY!! Stay Cued, Tuned,,,,,,,and Get Ready 2 ROCK -N- ROOLL!!! ;-)

        1. Jerry Hoag says:

          Jack Brother me too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wish I could chase…..If I had a car I would be down in the I-80 corridor area…….to watch the show…..and take videos and pictures…

        2. Jerry Hoag says:

          Hey Jack I wrote INDY about picking me up for the ParyAtTheYardOFBricks and haven’t heard anything……Have you???

  8. Jerry Hoag says:

    Man It feels like something is going to happen out there tonight…we will have to wait and see what the atmosphere does later on……it will be interesting to see in about 2 to 3 hours..

  9. Jeff (Richland) says:

    16Z HRRR still showing the same general idea. If the HRRR verifies then worst weather will likely be in NW Indiana which is pretty common.

  10. I have a toasty 78 degrees here but it is VERY humid out right now. Have had complete sunshine most of the day, but right its filtered sunshine. Still looks like the best will be south but people north of 96 should not let there guard down yet. Things can change fast (As we have seen with the shifting of the Slight Risk Area today).

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Very humid here too, feels like something could happen.

      1. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

        Humid up this way too. Hopefully we’ll get a few boomers up here tonight.

  11. Jerry Hoag says:

    Yeah it is extremely humid out…there is even a halo/rainbow around the sun today…

  12. It seems as though the atmosphere right now would be very ripe for storm development and that we would get good storms. Still a little warmer to the south (Low 80′s near the border). I am closing in on 80 and likely may barely squeeze out 80 before the end of the day.

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Kyle your not at 80???? I am 81 here at my place on the West Side of Grand Rapids by the zoo……And a Dew Point of 64……Totally Sunny, a very few high whisky Clouds…..and that Halo/Rainbow around the sun…

    2. Jack says:

      Yup, it is JUICY out There Right Now !! I Think as Bill said it Won’t Happen Till after Sunset …..hence, STAY CUEDDD… ;-)

      1. Nope but I am close to 80 with a dewpoint of 61. There is a nice breeze from the west so its not as bad

        1. Jerry Hoag says:

          ok cool

      2. Nope but I am close to 80 with a dewpoint of 61. There is a nice breeze from the west so its not as bad

  13. Jeff (Richland) says:

    I have not been outside but both Kzoo and GR are reporting dew points of 61 and temps of 78. That really isn’t that humid.

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        +1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Gazillion.

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Jeff no that isn’t that humid, but it just feels so darn humid…been a long time since we had dew points that high…..and higher temps, we are use to it yet….lol…But I do have a Dew Point at my place of 64. And a Temp of 84.

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        Typo temp is 81..

  14. Jerry Hoag says:

    TWC on the satellite picture looks like some storm clouds building in southern Wisconsin. Maybe some storms getting ready to pop in Southern Wisconsin.

  15. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    NWS Northern Indiana seems to anticipate the setup tonight with “BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH” for severe weather, which is Southern Michigan/Northern Indiana area. http://kamala.cod.edu/mi/latest.fxus63.KIWX.html

    1. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      They mention: “LOOMING CONVECTIVE THREAT”.

  16. Jerry Hoag says:

    This issued at 329pm.

    ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

    STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
    SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE STORMS WILL REACH SOUTHERN LAKE
    MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF JACKSON BY 8 AM
    WEDNESDAY.

    HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND FAIR WEATHER
    WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Now you see with the latest postings from the they mention Southern Lower Michigan but they don’t mention which cities…Grrrrrrrrrrrr…..just that the storms will be East of Jackson by 5am……..At Noon today Laura V. Mentioned that Storms moving into our area should be around the 10pm time frame to 5am…….10pm on shore then the 5am out of all of the viewing area…Jackson as mentioned above..

  17. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    Here is the 17Z HRRR run. Looks a little better for people toward I-96….but that may change………OOOO LONG JOHNSON!!!!!

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014052017&plotName=cref_t7sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields – Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t7

    1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

      SORRY GUYS….BROKEN LINK! :(

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        Travis no problem thanks though buddy!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usSrJGX1Wxs

      Just made me laugh….(while checking weather updates of course)

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        LOL…….MEOW>>>>>>>>OH MY TOUNGUE…..Did you see the latest commercial with the cat singing/saying that, “Oh My Tongue”

    3. Cort S. says:

      Oh Don Piano… Why I eyes ya.

  18. Jerry Hoag says:

    SHORT TERM
    (THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

    MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE
    TONIGHT AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
    COMBINE TO ALLOW STORMS THAT FORM THIS EVENING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
    SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HIGH
    WINDS AND HAIL. STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR WITH SOME
    BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW GIVEN LATE NIGHT
    TIMING BUT SOME QLCS TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

    THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
    SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING AND RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC PRESSURE RIDGING
    BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

    LONG TERM

  19. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The latest HRRR actually shows storms firing north of 96 tonight as well, looks like I won’t miss out after all! :)

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Keep the high hopes up John…….did you read the latest post I copied from the update at 329pm?? Sounds good for anyone in Southern Lower Michigan!!!!!

  20. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Today’s CPC. We’re in the heat wave bullseye.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      WAHOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Well, it’s about time! :-)

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        People we have turned the corner :)

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          +1

    3. Brian (Grandville) says:

      Upper 70′s-low 80′s would be possible. It’s gonna be a scorcher.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        More like 80-90 I’m thinking

        1. Brian (Grandville) says:

          Keep in mind, predicting above average temps could meen a high as little as 1* above average. My cold bias.

    4. DF (SE Mich) says:

      When is the last time we saw that?

      1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

        September?

    5. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Travis isn’t a bit ironic you always slam the CPC until it’s favorable then you post and promote there findings. Otherwise it’s a broken computer model , yes..? Lol

      1. Cort S. says:

        Same goes with Rocky. Same goes with everybody, even me sometimes.

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Yes sometimes is different as the CPC Is an easy target. But one can’t use this method to welcome a heat wave and bash it every time it reeds cold….if you are going to bash be an equal opportunity basher….. :) . That’s my take anyways.

  21. Jerry Hoag says:

    The first Severe Thunderstorm Warnings of the day, But way way far away….In Colorado or was it Wyoming???

  22. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Awesome outside. Feels like summer. Interestingly,still in the 60′s in the thumb.

  23. Paul says:

    Here are some more cool video of the storms from yesterday.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoO89cqDgJU

  24. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Next SPC update anytime now.

  25. Jeff (Richland) says:

    SPC update has removed 30% risk for us and wording is not particuarly encouraging.

    1. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

      Hate to bring up “national” weather, but Bernie Rayno did an excellent video for Accuweather describing the situation. Good instability, quality moisture, solid dew points. But the biggest lacking factor is the absence of a low level jet. It’s 40 kts, just pointed west to east from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley.

  26. John (Norton Shores) says:

    New MD out just to the west of us for a watch possible

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0623.html

    1. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

      Only 40 percent chance of a watch, but I see a watch coming, though. You can’t just not have a watch if big hailers occurs.

      And yes, 20Z update removed 5% tornado area, removed 30% wind area (all) and moved the 30% hail to the western edge of Lake Michigan. Still mind boggling that no hatch is there for big hail, considering the instability, shear and lapse rates.

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        Its a 80% chance…………

    2. Jerrod (Hartford) says:

      Now, it’s been pushed to 80 percent…watch likely, apparently a blooper with the percentages.

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Oh please no watches issued as that seals our fate……well sometimes. I’m trying to remain positive sorry guys as I usually am although it tends to be when I’m seeing a better environment . I hope for a good surprise , I really really doooo!

        1. Swatz_Zoo(Cedar Springs) says:

          ROFLMAO I was going to say the exact same thing Darren, usually when they put us in a slight risk this far up or under a watch nothing happens, but put us in “SEE TEXT” or general something is bound to happen, it seems like that has been the case more times than not.

        2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Well we know the secret weapon lays in your backyard , so if there is any activity plz through up a post until then zzzzzzzzz

  27. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    I think we will see a few storms…..I don’t know how strong they will be….but we will see a few storms AT LEAST

  28. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    So did anyone else notice the slight risk area has narrowed since the last update and even a small drop south as well. I know this is only a probabilistic tool so one should not put to much weight into these boundaries as storms never pay any mind to these boarders . With that said my fingers are crossed and prayers have been said that we see some action across each and everyone’s homestead..!

  29. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    I’m praying for NO STORMS……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA JK
    JK
    JK

    BRING ON THE STORMS!!!!!

  30. Typical Michigan when we get in a 30% range POOF it goes away and is downplayed in the updates afterwards. But we gladly get 5 months of winter. This is getting old real fast lol. That is one of the reasons I would like to live in another state. The only thing that would keep me here is family haha

    1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

      ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

        1. Cort S. says:

          It means he agrees with you.

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      I here ya Kyle , I do….but there are disadvantages which come along with SVR prone areas. But I really do get what your saying as I’m a storm junkie… See my goal is to be able to purchase a storm home , so as,I can come and go as I please… Kinda like a summer home, but for storms… :) . We could go half and half on a home in the plains…hehehehe

  31. Jerry Hoag says:

    there is going to be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Sothern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and Iowa…

  32. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    1. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

      Sorry Jerrry….that wasn’t meant for you lol

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        Travis that is cool!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  33. Jerry Hoag says:

    Yeah the TWC just showed that the SPC is going to be issuing a WW for that area…..Did anyone notice a Meso for there???

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      See above.

  34. Jerry Hoag says:

    AREAS AFFECTED…SRN WI…NERN IL…ERN IA

    CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 202005Z – 202200Z

    CORRECTED FOR WATCH PROB

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

    SUMMARY…ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
    WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN WI…WITH OTHER
    STORMS FORMING TO THE SW INTO IA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
    MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH PLACEMENT.

    DISCUSSION…VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER SRN
    WI IN THE PLUME OF STEEPER LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
    DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S F. THIS AREA IS NEAR A LOW
    PRESSURE TROUGH…WITH CONVERGENCE BEING ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE.

    MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH
    STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPH. ALTHOUGH
    LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK…THE HODOGRAPH STILL FAVORS A RIGHT MOVING
    SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL.

    SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO FILL IN SWWD INTO IA WITHIN THE
    AXIS OF DILATATION. CONTINUED HEATING IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
    BREAK THE CAP AND RESULT IN SEVERAL STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF HAIL.

    THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SIG HAIL POTENTIAL IS WHETHER STORMS
    WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS DESPITE THE RATHER WEAK FORCING AND
    WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT…OR MORE TOWARD MULTICELLS…IN
    WHICH CASE THE HAIL COULD STILL BE LARGE BUT NO GREATER THAN ABOUT
    GOLF BALL.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Enhanced by Sea Breeze….hmmmmm. Lake breeze as we are pretty far from the sea…. :)

  35. Mike Geukes says:

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 161
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    355 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
    CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
    NORTHERN ILLINOIS
    NORTHWEST INDIANA
    SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
    LAKE MICHIGAN

    * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
    1100 PM CDT.

    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
    WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
    EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
    SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
    STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHEAST
    OF RACINE WISCONSIN TO 65 MILES WEST OF DES MOINES IOWA. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
    UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

    DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
    ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IA INTO SOUTHERN WI.
    THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
    THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STEEP
    LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTICELL
    OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS
    MAY BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.

    AVIATION…A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 26030.

    …HART

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        + 1

  36. Cliff(KZOO) says:

    You know what happens when they downplay something!!! Either way I will be happy if we just got some good ole rain so I can watch my corn and soybeans popping up.

  37. Pretty Big storm Near Elk Horn, Iowa. I was actually in Elk Horn, Iowa when I was there last weekend. Cool dutch town with a big danish village. Bought a few things in the gift shop. Nice town if you are ever out there

  38. Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Shelby County, IA

  39. Another one near Dubuque

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      And in Colorado. Hehehe

  40. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    NEWS UPDATE : I found the SPC official storm track for South-West – Lower Mi. I wondered if they got the memo..!! Lol

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_2000_torn.gif

    1. I wish it were as simple as letting them loop around the lake and then jog north to Grand Rapids lol

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Me too , as I know this is the tornado outlook but I tht it was funny it tracked around the lake…but it should not re-appear if this were true to the shedder ….

  41. The storms in Iowa could get here sooner that midnight given that its already pushing into Northeast Illinois and southern Wisconsin

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Ya I have seen some models showing a little activity around 9:00-10:00. As you know these storms will be popping up here and there throughout the afternoon ahead of the cold front but will increase in coverage as the actual front nears our area. However if a few line segs do form I could see something of that nature making it’s way over before the main push.

      1. Watching radar closely to see if Ill have to go chase anything! I have over a half tank of gas and 9 bucks to roll into McDonald’s for a bite to eat on my chase (Can’t chase on an empty stomach ;) )

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Lol….Make a PBJ and save the 9 dollars if you need to extend the chase. :)

    2. fixxxer says:

      Lol…some of you never learn.

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Fixxx must yu always rain on everyone’s parade ….there is a thing called optimism or I’ll take realism as I usually go with a blend and lean towards the latter. But your an all out full blown pessimist 99.999% of the time , I mean really is that the only thing that makes you tick….it’s a bit over the top !!

        1. INDY says:

          30 years of scanning a weather blog 24/7 with nothing to do is fixers best!! INDYY!!

  42. That cell north of Hamlin, IA is a little scary. Has a little hook on radar. Wonder if there is roation

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      You can adjust the setting to look for rotation….did yu knw this??

      1. I don’t know of any really good radars for that. I havnt updated my weather ones on my phone. Got any good ones?

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Well an easy one which requires no install is the NWS radar….maybe Cort will lend the rights to his own awesome radar concoction.. :) . NWS worked for me….

        2. I really need to purchase RadarScope. Havn’t done that yet

        3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Yes it’s good to have a road app , in fact a must..! But I would chase storms with just a compass , I love them .

  43. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I’m headed to Colorado for another interview possibly as soon as end of week ( maybe I get to see some storms ) but anyways to the point…Co this time of year can be a great place to watch storms , especially towards the eastern boarder as it really stars to pick up around this time . This week looks like it’s starting to fire up in that area ….

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