Weds. Night

May 28th, 2014 at 11:01 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

shn glerl    This is a late Weds.  morning pic. from the S. Haven GLERL camera on the lighthouse (from NOAA Coastwatch).  9:45 pm – Skies are partly cloudy.  We’ve been watching the pulsing showers and t-storms in Indiana and Ohio.  They are not moving and they are producing some very heavy rain…6.25″ near Cairo OH.  I-75 was closed in both directions north of Lima.  Here’s radar.  Here’s current conditions around the state.  We were a little cooler today.  Highs will hold in the 70s this afternoon.  There was a lot of  sunshine Weds. over N. Lower Michigan and over much of N. and Central Indiana.  Clouds will be slow to erode this PM.   It’ll be partly to mostly sunny and pleasant from Thursday into the weekend, with a chance of showers/t-storms beginning next Sunday night.

Note the May 2014 rainfall so far compared to typical El Nino rainfall (thanks to Anthony Sagliani for posting this – Anthony posts some great pics. and weather info.).  We’ll be in a weak-moderate (not strong) El Nino this summer/fall.  You can see the significant rain over much of Texas and you can see the heavy rain from Hurricane Amanda, which moved SW of Mexico.  It’s hard to get rain into California and the Southwest in early summer, even with an El Nino, but hopefully, their rain will perk up as we get into winter.  Heavy rain is likely in parts of Florida in week 2 (around June 8-9).  Drier conditions are likely with this pattern across the northern Great Lakes with the storm track south of the Great Lakes into IL-IN-OH and south.  WNW upper level flow should bring many nice days this summer.   I’ve still got summer in Michigan about 1 deg. cooler than avg.

Also, cool pic. of t-storm over Pittsburgh.   May 25 global sea ice area is 5th highest on record, and the highest since 1996 (data here if you want to plot it out yourself)…2.74″ of rain in an hour in Jackson MS…Watford ND Tornado rated EF2 (9 injured)…video of the tornado (profanity warning)…Storm Chaser hit by lightning (he’s OK)…Since Sunday, a total of 14.8″ of rain has fallen in Balasore, India…Tuesday’s global highs: Nawabshah, Pakistan: 118 F (48C); Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia: 117 F (47C); Barmer, India: 115 F(46C).  It’s hot in the Desert SW – highs from Tues:   Las Vegas 105, Phoenix 107, Palm Springs 104

72 Responses to “Weds. Night”

  1. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The NWS forecast sounds good for next Monday and Tuesday! :)

    POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
    WEEK AS A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
    VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
    ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE FRONT AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES/SFC LOWS MOVE
    ALONG IT. THE SET UP LOOKS CONDUCIVE TO PERIODS/AREAS OF LOCALLY
    HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A ROUND OR TWO OF SEVERE WEATHER.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Lol….I just cut that from the forecast John and was about to post it until I saw you already did. Let’s hope we can make it happen next week , we are due for a good start to June in the SVR weather arena . I like the sound of this as well……

      QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
      SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS IS A
      HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES BOTH ALOFT AND
      AT THE SURFACE.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        I LIKE this forecast!!!

  2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Warm and incredibly wet May over here. 7″ of rain and counting for May (raining all day over here)… Can’t say I’ve seen many months get that much of rain I’m going to end up with.

    Up to +2.6 above average in the temp department. Saw GR finally crossed into above average territory as well for the month.

    Still looking like some more warm temps to start June:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

    Good graphic from Tom Skilling:

    http://tribunecwcblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/featuregraphic052814.jpg

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Send rain this way plz …!

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        I see GR is only at 3.3″ of rain.

        Quite the disparity in Michigan.

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Yup , I really need some of your rain Travis , so stop hogging it all over there in the east , Jeeez.. ! Lol :)

        2. Brent - Zeeland says:

          I’m at 1.90 inches for May. Put my garden in on Monday. Very little soil moisture. Would love some rain!

        3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I hear ya , I just tilled a half acre and it literally a dust bowl here with rocks everywhere . I’m waiting two weeks until I seed ( lawn ) as it’s just to dry and I want to see what weeds come back , then till again . So I’m praying for rain as well.

    2. ralphdraw3 says:

      Regarding ice extent, there seems to be something of a disagreement, at least in the Arctic: (btw this data goes back to 1981, not just to 1996..)

      http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

      Since reaching its annual maximum extent on March 21, Arctic sea ice extent has declined somewhat unevenly, but has consistently been well below its average 1981 to 2010 extent. While the rate of Arctic-wide retreat was rapid through the first half of April, it has subsequently slowed down. However, ice breakup was quite early in the Bering Sea, presenting difficulties for gold dredging operations and seal hunters in the region. In the Antarctic, sea ice continued to reach record high extents.
      http://www.thesoapboxroadshow.com/BlogAmericanDemocracy/

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Look at this graph: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif This is from NOAA/NCEP/CPC. This is the FORECAST ARCTIC ICE ANOMALY – you see where the line goes in the top graph, Ralph. It goes above the zero line! That’s a POSITIVE ANOMALY! After a warm winter, the temperature north of 80° latitude is now cooler than average: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php TOTAL Global sea ice remains ABOVE AVERAGE: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg Look at how much the TOTAL GLOBAL ICE has increased in the past two years.

        1. ralphdraw3 says:

          Quoting from NSIDC

          Arctic sea ice extent for April 2014 averaged 14.14 million square kilometers (5.46 million square miles). This is 610,000 square kilometers (236,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average extent, and 270,000 square kilometers (104,000 square miles) above the record April monthly low, which occurred in 2007. While the rate of ice loss was rapid through the first half of April, it subsequently slowed down.

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Quoting from NSIDC:

          “Antarctic sea ice extent for April 2014 reached 9.00 million square kilometers (3.47 million square miles), the largest ice extent on record by a significant margin. This exceeds the past record for the satellite era by about 320,000 square kilometers (124,000 square miles).”

          You’re quote states correctly that Arctic ice extent has GROWN by 104,000 square miles in the last 7 years!

    3. ralphdraw3 says:

      With regard to Antarctic ice, the news is not good either:

      Scientists published two separate studies in two scientific journals -the journal of the American Geophysical Union and the journal “Science” – detailing more evidence on global warming coming from the Antarctic.

      The two studies, both using a 20 year history of data, showed that six glaciers in the West Antarctic are melting much faster than previously thought. As a result, sea levels will rise much more and much faster.

      Scientists had already known that the Greenland ice sheet was melting at a fast rate, causing sea levels to rise.

      Also, National Geographic Society published a long article on the West Antarctic melting as did NASA, which published an article and two videos on the Antarctic melting. NASA’s “ScienceCasts: West Antarctic Glaciers in Decline” can be seen at Youtube. Now, Nat. Geo. has an entire webpage devoted to global warming “What is Global Warming”.. “Causes of Global Warming”.. etc..

      Besides National Geographic and NASA, many other mainstream scientific organizations concur with the global warming hypothesis (in other words, this stuff is not coming just from Al Gore or George Soros or the “far left”). The American Association for the Advancement of Science states in its paper “What We Know”, “Climate scientists agree: (human caused) climate change is happening here and now. “. The National Academy of Sciences has published a booklet on global warming titled “Climate Change -Evidence and Causes” (download available online) . This is the NAS’s statement on global warming: “The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Boomers on tap Monday….??

        * .SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS… *

        HEAVIEST RNFL FOR THE OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SHOULD BE FROM
        THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
        GRTLKS. PORTIONS OF A WAVY LEADING FRONT CROSSING THE NRN STATES
        AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST SHOULD STALL WHILE AWAITING THE EJECTING
        WRN SYSTEM… WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM REACHING THE GRTLKS LATE IN
        THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL OFFER
        POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE EVENTS OVER THAT REGION.

      2. Brian (Grandville) says:

        Its official, we caused it. Everyone here that. Shame on us humans. At least I’m an outdoorsman, so when they make us all regress to primitive techniques to compensate for our disruption of their world, I will be able to provide for my family without any further contributions to this horrific tragedy we caused.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Well said, Brian.

      3. Bill Steffen says:

        Ralph – A small portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet has broken off – perhaps a few glaciers (the continent is kind of one big glacier) may be (and again, MAY) be shrinking a very small amount…BUT overall, the Antarctic icecap is GROWING significantly.

        Look at this graph: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png The Antarctic icecap extent has grown by 700,000 sq. km. in just the last year!! It’s at a record extent.

        This is up on the website of the NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER: “In the Southern Hemisphere, autumn is well underway, and sea ice extent is growing rapidly. Antarctic sea ice extent for April 2014 reached 9.00 million square kilometers (3.47 million square miles), the largest ice extent on record by a significant margin.” http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

        Did you read that, Ralph? “THE LARGEST ICE EXTENT ON RECORD BY A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN!”.

        The icecap has been growing for 30 years: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

        Here’s more from the National Snow and Ice Data Center: “During April, ice extent increased by an average of 112,600 square kilometers (43,500 square miles) PER DAY! Ice extent on April 30 was a record for that day; record levels continue to be set in May.”

        1. ralphdraw3 says:

          You are talking about sea ice extent in the Antarctic. Not land ice in the West Antarctic, which is melting at a faster rate – there are 6 glaciers in the West Antarctic which are in decline.

          NASA | Runaway Glaciers in West Antarctica [HD] – YouTube
          ► 2:16► 2:16
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBtskLlITyYYouTube
          May 13, 2014 – Uploaded by The Mars Underground
          Glaciologist Eric Rignot discusses the processes leading to the decline of six rapidly melting glaciers in West …

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          You have to take the Antarctic as a whole, not one relatively small subset of the Antarctic. When you look at the Antarctic as a whole, you see that the ice is growing “significantly”. Again, here’s the National Snow and Ice Data Center:

          “Antarctic sea ice extent for April 2014 reached 9.00 million square kilometers (3.47 million square miles), the largest ice extent on record by a significant margin. This exceeds the past record for the satellite era by about 320,000 square kilometers (124,000 square miles)”

  3. fixxxer says:

    Another cool dreary day so far.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Fixx , why are you so miserable , seriously ?

    2. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Another?

  4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    From the link of the storm chaser getting zapped by lightning:

    “The odds of being struck by lightning within a lifetime is one in 10,000, according to the National Weather Service.”

    I’m guessing the odds are a bit better for storm chasers.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Yup , only if you live to 80… Lol

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      The odds of being struck over the period of a year is 1 / million approx , depending on the data set of course. I’m a lighting junkie , so when I was reading these odds a while back , I was quite alarmed to see the odds were actually 1 / 10,000 as I tht they were much greater since I’ve always used tht age old expression ,,you have a better chance of getting hit by lighting. I think I will change my expression to : There’s a better chance of Fixxxer being positive…!

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Whoops sorry guys didn’t mean to post this twice..

  5. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    If you missed Bills lighting strike link , this is a must see , wow….!!

    http://www.today.com/news/storm-chaser-hit-lightning-very-grateful-strike-wasnt-worse-2D79725126

  6. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Hard to believe that even with the stretch of nice weather we’ve had lately, the temps for Muskegon, Kalamazoo, Holland, Alpena, Gaylord, Sault Ste. Marie, and Marquette are still below average for this month.

    1. Paul says:

      Just wait, Travis is coming up…daring.

  7. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    For those who are interested in our SVR outlook : ( Mi towards the end of paragraph )
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

    1. Another chase opportunity?!?

  8. Intellicast is going out on the limb to already put an 80% chance for strong storms on Monday. Hope it works out to get severe weather.

  9. GunLakeDeb says:

    I don’t think it ever showed on radar, but we had mist/drizzle from 9:30 to 11am or so. Which is OK – it knocks the pollen down a bit.

    Lightning is just one more reason I don’t chase….

    1. I looked at the pollen level and its at about 7/10

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Jeez , no wonder why I’m hurting …thought I was done with allergies when I moved form Northen Ca to go away to college. But there back…great !!

  10. Get GunLakeDeb were you the one that wondered about that weather station at the Kent/Allegan County Line? Well me living near there.. Weather Underground uses that station. It is right near the Kent County Landfill

  11. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Starting to see dry patches on some of the lawns in the area.

    1. Dikehopper (Fennville) says:

      Same here. I might start watering my lawn tomorrow.

  12. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    Send some Rain my why also PLEASE!

  13. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Mother Nature has a sense of humor. 78 in Muskegon now and 68 in Flint.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Lol….that’s funny . I can’t believe Travis didn’t weigh in on the ” warm vs cold challenge ” on Bills thread . I guess it’s a known fact , but I really think he just enjoyed stirring the pot , as no one could really be that fired up over average temps. :)

  14. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Looks like all the action is in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Yup, I bet it stays there all summer too.

  15. SBPortage002 says:

    Not a bad day out there this afternoon. About 75. Maybe thst’s why it feels warm to me out there. A good thing really.

  16. John (Norton Shores) says:

    78 here and 72 in GR, not very often the warmer temps are found in the lakeshore. Enjoying it! :)

  17. Ansel says:

    Loving all this warm weather and more to come.

    1. Paul says:

      Is “Ansel” the little freak that was giving crap to Bill not that long ago?

      1. Ansel says:

        and you would do what about it?

        1. Paul says:

          Don’t temp fate little man.

  18. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Great day today! 70 degrees and party sunny! I love it! This weather ROCKS!

    1. fixxxer says:

      Great your never gonna leave.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        The more you complain and whine about the weather and keep posting with your stupid alaises the more I will be commenting all summer long! Get used to it!

        1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          How about you predict GR won’t see any 90′s this summer. That should give us a nice stretch of 90 degree weather since you are always wrong. I love it. Fantastic. Get used to it. Who knew? Obviously not you. Thanks for listening.

        2. kevin. w says:

          Sounds like someone would say in kindergarten or first grade.

        3. matt says:

          Warm weather soon get used to it

  19. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Hey Kyle we are getting passed by again on the storm front , nice line of storms moving through Indy. I’m starting to think we may just miss most of the storms this season , I know we have time but the storm saw has had a proper tune up from ” Old Man Winter” in fact I think he has a home in the lake. I hope I’m wrong I really do….!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Wait until Monday and Tuesday, were right in the direct path for the storms early next week

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Ya , I agree as the forecast still looks good for warm moist air to move in after the dry air moves out and a cold front is set to drop down around the Monday time frame so chances are still looking good attm. I’m more saying in general as a season goes after all is said and done , but it’s just something I fear and hope doesn’t happen. :)

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          I like good boomers, that’s all I want Monday, and one at night especially would get me in my thunderstorm mood! :)

      2. fixxxer says:

        Lol hard for believing long ranges and models.

  20. Brian(Grandville) says:

    That tornado video in ND is intense!

  21. I hope our severe weather chances work out early next week. If it ends up being another I-94 and south, ill either go northern Indiana or Cass County. Cass is one of my favorite chase counties in Michigan right beside Van Buren

  22. mr. negative says:

    Storm free…storm proof

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Wow , nice pic ….you could frame that one. I need to go check out the sunset at the lake sometime , I’m sure there are some good ones , that is something I really miss about living on the beach , is the amazing sunsets .

  23. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    Evening sunset

    http://i59.tinypic.com/25ppkxc.jpg

    1. Jack says:

      Nice, I just was Going to comment on The ” MAJESTIC” Sunset Tonight !!! YAY GOD…!!!!! Stay CUEDDD….

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        + 1 and God is great !

  24. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Boomers on tap Monday….??

    * .SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS… *

    HEAVIEST RNFL FOR THE OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SHOULD BE FROM
    THE NRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
    GRTLKS. PORTIONS OF A WAVY LEADING FRONT CROSSING THE NRN STATES
    AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST SHOULD STALL WHILE AWAITING THE EJECTING
    WRN SYSTEM… WITH THE LATTER SYSTEM REACHING THE GRTLKS LATE IN
    THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL OFFER
    POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE EVENTS OVER THAT REGION.

  25. Brian (Grandville) says:

    I stare in dis belief as the Tigers loose again, after Sanchez pitched a gem. Good game Darren. You got the W again. ALDS match up again, maybe?

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      The way they’re playing irks me a bit. But as long as they continue to lead the Central, it’s all good.

      Good thing the Central stinks this year. :-)

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