Severe Weather 2014

May 30th, 2014 at 3:45 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Tornado trends   Michigan severe reports 2014      Click on the images to enlarge.  The first graph is tornado trends.  This year we continue to have a very low number of tornadoes at 366 in the U.S. since 1/1.  The states with the most tornadoes are Mississippi (70), Alabama (53) and the big state of Texas (28).  Michigan has had four relatively small tornadoes this spring, all of them in SW Michigan.  What’s surprising is that Oklahoma has only had four tornadoes this year.  There have been no tornado fatalities in the U.S. this May.  There were none in May 2012…so, if we make it through this May, that means that two out of three years we have had no tornado deaths…pretty remarkable in the climatological most active severe weather month in the U.S. There have been NO severe weather reports this spring in the U.P. or in Northern Lower Michigan (none north of US 10).    The main reason for that is that it’s just been too cold.  Michigan has had 21 severe hail reports and 68 wind reports.  Michigan had 11 tornadoes in 2013 (average is 17) with the most active severe weather day being 11/17/13.

The overnight model runs keep us dry thru Sunday and start showers and t-showers Sunday night.   The GFS plot has 0.53″ of rain for G.R. from Sunday night thru Tues. AM, and another 0.61″ of rain from Weds. night thru Thurs. night.   The European model gives G.R. 1.07″ from Sunday night thru Tues. AM – dry for Tues. PM and Weds. with another 1/2″ of rain Thurs. (mainly PM).    Here’s the SPC Severe Weather Discussion for Monday, when we will have a good chance of storms across the Southern Great Lakes and likely some storms reaching severe levels.   Showers and storms are possible late Sunday, but more than likely, they’ll hold off until around or after sunset.  Then we will have a chance of showers and storms Sun. night through Monday night or early Tuesday…we dry out from Tues. PM thru Weds. as the front slips south into Indiana…the front may return with more showers/storms later Weds. night or Thurs.  So, definitely an overall wetter pattern after the weekend.  As will be the case much of the summer, less rain for N. Michigan.

New Delhi, India had a high/low of 111/90 yesterday…today they were 104 with a dust storm lowering the visiblity to nearly 1/2 mile.   A Severe Thunderstorm went thru New Delhi and here are some pics. of the damage.    Sibi, Pakistan hit 121 deg.   Aerial view of snow on the ground in Queensland, New ZealandGreat Lightning shot from MallorcaFlorida cumulonimbus.    Snow is forecast for the mountains of Southern Alaska all the way down to 2,000 ft. elevation.  Barrow had flurries and the high temp. Thurs. was only 27°.  Barrow has had flurries on 23 of the last 26 days.   So far this spring it’s been 90 degrees or higher more times in Winnipeg, MB (2) than in Atlanta, GA (1).   Check out the locust swarm in Madagascar.

This is fun – ceremonial first pitches.  What the heck happened to Nolan Ryan?  Great pitches from George Bush and Bill Clinton…Obama’s was too high and too far to the left.  2.5% ice cover left on Lake Superior Friday am.

The European weekly maps show warm for the next week for SW Michigan…cool for week two and slightly cool for week 3-4.  With this pattern setting up, we should be grateful for the rain we get.  The storm track, as I’ve been saying, should shift just south of our area for much of June with WNW flow.  Lots of beautiful, comfortable days ahead.

 

69 Responses to “Severe Weather 2014”

  1. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Best stretch of weather so far this spring! I ‘m loving it and spending lots of time outside! That said, we do need some rain. Great weekend coming up. Enjoy the 80 degree temps and the sunshine!

  2. Bob So. of Fennville says:

    I had to Google that. Great shot.

    Balearic Islands – World Atlas
    http://www.worldatlas.com › Europe › Spain
    Printable map of Balearic Islands and info and links to Balearic Islands facts, famous natives, … The well-known island of Mallorca is the largest in the group.

  3. INDY says:

    Bill our cool mornings are great!!! I will take high 70′s and low 80′s this summer!! 5 more months we will have snow on the ground!! INDYY!!!!

    1. fixxxer says:

      I hope your drunk.

  4. Gary says:

    Interesting distribution. The range between the 25th and 75th percentile is surprisingly small.

  5. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Looks like today will be another very nice day with lots of sun and mild temps. Looking ahead into June there are indications that we will fall back into a cooler then average pattern for June and it could be a little on the wet side (of course Flint could still stay above average as it has a tendency to do so) Now while it can be debated as to the effects it may or may not have on our long term climate there are also indications that we may be nearing the end of the maximum of Solar Cycle #24 and this has been one of the quieter cycles in recent history. If this leads to long term cooling tread sill remains to be seen. Being a warm weather lover I sure hope not. But time will tell.
    SlimJim

    1. Jacob G. says:

      Latest CFSv2 for June is slightly below average for June with 5″+ of rain. The latest Euro Weeklies show a similar cooler theme. I think we get our most severe storms this year in June and I still think we hit 90 degrees in June before we settle in for a cooler summer and I am in the camp of a normal June. Just my random thoughts this morning, loving the weather as always regardless of the seasons.

  6. Jacob G. says:

    Latest HIRES Euro is printing out a lot of rain (2″+) first week of June with a seasonally strong temperature gradient across the Great Lakes region. Could be an active period coming up next week for sure and NWS GRR has been talking about that for a bit now.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Yup , models have been calling for a wet start to June consistent now for a few weeks and finally coming to better agreement on the when and where. Sound good!

  7. mr. negative says:

    Yep…a wet, cold, storm free “summer” to wrap-up 2014.

  8. INDY says:

    2nd week of June look below normal temps in the low 70′s and maybe a few 60′s!!Going to be another bad winter Snow is only 5 months out!! INDYY!!

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      It’s already snowing again in Alaska. It’s coming around earlier this year. Maybe we will actually have Christmas in July. LOL ;)

  9. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Fantastic stretch of above normal temps. No snow on the ground for at least 6 months. Possibly 7. I love it. Fantastic. Get used to it.

    1. matt says:

      You got rodey

  10. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Next week is looking very stormy and very wet. Looks like well have a couple opportunities for severe weather.

    1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

      Need it. The grass maybe green but it is getting dry out in the woods and the pollen is off the chart.

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        I’m did a rain dance in my rock filled dust bowl today , I hope it works as my ground is beyond dry. The Mosquitos are extremely bad…!!

        1. GunLakeDeb says:

          You need to put up a bat house!

        2. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          + infinite on the mosquitos. I got tore up yesterday again, this time during the day.

        3. Jack says:

          Re: Bat House…..” Batter UP” !!! Heeheeeee….stay CUEDD… ;-)

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      I’ll take it, after seeing the pictures of the storm in New Delhi – WOW!! And then 100+ degrees AND a dust storm??? I’ll take shoveling umpteen feet of snow over THAT kind of weather….

  11. INDY says:

    Wow will even hit 80* today lots of cool weather Bill for the start of Summer!! INDYY!!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Wow 78 degrees already. Another fantastic above average day. Great stretch of warm weather.

      1. steven (Derby Lake) says:

        Said no one ever

        1. H&L says:

          Steve go outside and love someone…no one likes you here.

        2. steven (Derby Lake) says:

          I was starting to get jealous about Rocky having a stalker, looks like I have my own now.

        3. H&L says:

          Sorry bud I just dont like you…bad tone on all of your posts and you dont seem like a bright person.

          So sorry not a stalker just plain don’t like you.

        4. Rodey (Rockford) says:

          Thanks for paying attention and taking the time to comment. I love it fantastic. Another 80 degree day. Who knew? Bring it. Get used to it. I love it.

  12. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Here is look at some of our expected temps ( wind / Hgts / 850 mb ) over next 9 days , looks like nice weather although hot and humid for a stretch then cooling a little towards the end of next week. :) .

    http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/9panel/gfs_500p_9panel.gif

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      A look at the nam on Monday , you can really see the transport of the warm air coming up from the gulf to us in SW Michigan , it’s going to be a sticky one , get your AC ready.!

      http://weather.unisys.com/nam/60h/nam_850_60h.gif

  13. INDY says:

    RAIN HEAT AND STORMS!! MONDAY!! INDYY!!

  14. Intellicast has an 80% chance for Severe Thunderstorms on Monday. Ohh and Darren, I got 100 dollars in a card yesterday so I got plenty of money for gas to chase!

    1. darrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Nice…!!

  15. Brian (Grandville) says:

    A bit on the warm side, but not too bad. Bright blue sky also.

  16. Jack says:

    Another Absolutely GOREGOUES “FRY” day !!! Keep EM ..ROLLING BILL!! Stay CueDDD…. ;-)

  17. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Monday is looking to be our best set up for severe weather in West Michigan for the season so far, hot and humid, the storms will be able to survive that lake (I hope)!

  18. Jack says:

    Definitely In NEED of Some RAIN . For Crops, and Lawns….Stay CuedDDD…. ;-)

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Several farms around here got their first cutting of hay dried and baled – that’s always a good sign!

  19. Jack says:

    Thanks for STAYING CUEDDD….CUE::: “Pray For Rain” – Album “Pray For Rain” – Artist “PFR” – YouTube
    ► 4:53► 4:53
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjQDLF7b4Ak. ;-)

  20. Barry in Zeeland says:

    Check out this cool video:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eomvFly0Ic&feature=youtu.be

    Kind of looks like a mini tornado on top of the thunderstorm clouds. Very odd.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      WOW!!!!! At first I thought it was just a coincidental reflection in the window, but down in the comments, the Pilot who filmed it says he asked another pilot if he saw it, and the answer was yes. Someone suggested a “jumping sun dog” formed by ice crystals lining up on top of the storm?? Makes more sense than a lot of the tin-foil-hat-wearers’ comments….LOL!!

  21. pat says:

    can anybody give me a beach temp for grand haven today
    and saturday

  22. Jenny's Snowthrower says:

    All I ask is that the storms are bad enough to damage my house and everyone else’s house in West Michigan. That’s what we all are crossing our fingers for right???? Please Lake Michigan Michigan don’t stop the Storms!!!! INDY!!!!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That’s nice.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Indy – you forgot which persona you were again

  23. pat says:

    thanks jack

    1. Jack says:

      You are Welcome pat !!! fishing Report HERE : Grand Haven: Salmon anglers are fishing 25 to 50 feet down in 120 to 160 feet of water. They are using mini or regular spoons with 3 to 12 colors of leadcore. Hot colors were orange and bright green. Perch fishing has slowed since stained water moved into the perch holes. Pier fishing was slow unless anglers can catch alewife. Happy fishing …… :-) . Stay CUEDD….. ;-)

  24. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The NWS has been very confident on the storm potential for Monday up until this forecast update, maybe a different person doing the text? Storm chances still look very good for Monday, so unless I’m seeing wrong, I have no idea why their afternoon update is downplaying the chances Monday?

    1. I’m not sure. It wouldn’t suprise me if it turns out correct. After all, it is Michigan. The land with snow for 6 months but no storms

  25. fixxxer says:

    I dont expect out severe weather to be any better here this year than the past 3 or 4. As far as the weather i like it but sadly know its not gonna last. We shall see.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      NWS is already down playing it for Monday. Wrong timing, wrong quad, ect. This should be no surprise to anyone here.

      1. Boy I wish I had a dollar for everytime I heard its wrong timing. I’d be rich.

        Michigan’s weather sucks. Hopefully the forecast changes these next few days but since its Michigan I doubt it.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          At this point in time, I think most of us should be wishing for just rain. It’s getting pretty dry out there, I’m noticing.

        2. Yeah I know my crops could use a good drink. The only thing I hope it the GR Bubble doesn’t take hold. At this point, I think we will still get some much needed rain

  26. To get the tempo going on the blog, anyone remember this? The anniversary is tomorrow, along with the El Reno Tornado

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

    1. Brian (Grandville) says:

      I slept through the whole thing. Knew it was coming, but couldn’t stay awake. I was shocked when I went out in about that Sunday morning.

      1. Ohh ok. I was to little to remember, but I was living in Hudsonville at the time.

        1. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Here’s the radar loop. Very rare for us.
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6g6LzINBLM

        2. Brian(Grandville) says:

          Other than a few border counties, almost every county in the lower peninsula had a warning from that event. Amazing.

      2. GunLakeDeb says:

        Wow, Brian – you’re a sound sleeper! I was awake (and terrified) through the whole ordeal – that event prompted us to build our “cement closet” in the garage for a storm shelter, because we had nowhere to go if the storm got worse….it’s not like driving anywhere was safe, with all the trees coming down…

        We were the rare few who DIDN’T lose power – so I was glued to the TV, watching WOOD’s coverage.

  27. ralphdraw3 says:

    None of the funds authorized to be appropriated or otherwise made available by this act may be used to implement the U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report, the United Nation’s Agenda 21 sustainable development plan, or the May 2013 Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order.”

    Get it? The Republican Party is now officially on record as the party of climate-science denialism. These research programs, ongoing and widely used by the Pentagon in strategic national defense planning for many years, could, if the Senate agrees, become illegal to use.

    Yes, this Marine veteran is mad as hell. GOP science deniers have “crossed the line,” they’re now messing with national security. America is now under attack from an enemy within, irrational science denialism, a toxic mind-set, a spreading, self-destructive mental virus. Yes, this is a “War on America.” The military has been using climate-science research for decades. This vote is self-destructive. These research studies are essential in our national defense.

    By- By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

    SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — I’m mad as hell. The GOP used to be the party of national defense. No more. What happened? In 2003 Bush launched the Iraq War to “defend our freedom.” Flash forward: Last week 227 of 231 GOP members of the House voted to turn the Pentagon into climate-science deniers, a decision certain to weaken national security. That’s about as absurd as telling Silicon Valley they can’t use technology

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Good for the GOP. They’re sticking up for the poor, the middle class and those on fixed income. With global temperatures flat for over a decade: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif there’s no need to burden families with “skyrocketing” utility bills to fund energy boondoggles like Solyndra and LG Chem. We’ve already wasted billions of dollars that could have been used to give scholarships…to pay off student loans…to help education or fix potholes.

  28. ralphdraw3 says:

    Bush’s pitches were low and in the dirt… if we want turn the weather page political..

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      Here’s Bush’s first pitch – see for yourself (Bush gets a nice ovation from the crowd): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeSNNQZNJo0

  29. Anyone have any guesses on when we’ll get our first tornado watch?

    1. fixxxer says:

      never?

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