Severe Weather 2014May 30th, 2014 at 3:45 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Click on the images to enlarge. The first graph is tornado trends. This year we continue to have a very low number of tornadoes at 366 in the U.S. since 1/1. The states with the most tornadoes are Mississippi (70), Alabama (53) and the big state of Texas (28). Michigan has had four relatively small tornadoes this spring, all of them in SW Michigan. What’s surprising is that Oklahoma has only had four tornadoes this year. There have been no tornado fatalities in the U.S. this May. There were none in May 2012…so, if we make it through this May, that means that two out of three years we have had no tornado deaths…pretty remarkable in the climatological most active severe weather month in the U.S. There have been NO severe weather reports this spring in the U.P. or in Northern Lower Michigan (none north of US 10). The main reason for that is that it’s just been too cold. Michigan has had 21 severe hail reports and 68 wind reports. Michigan had 11 tornadoes in 2013 (average is 17) with the most active severe weather day being 11/17/13.
The overnight model runs keep us dry thru Sunday and start showers and t-showers Sunday night. The GFS plot has 0.53″ of rain for G.R. from Sunday night thru Tues. AM, and another 0.61″ of rain from Weds. night thru Thurs. night. The European model gives G.R. 1.07″ from Sunday night thru Tues. AM – dry for Tues. PM and Weds. with another 1/2″ of rain Thurs. (mainly PM). Here’s the SPC Severe Weather Discussion for Monday, when we will have a good chance of storms across the Southern Great Lakes and likely some storms reaching severe levels. Showers and storms are possible late Sunday, but more than likely, they’ll hold off until around or after sunset. Then we will have a chance of showers and storms Sun. night through Monday night or early Tuesday…we dry out from Tues. PM thru Weds. as the front slips south into Indiana…the front may return with more showers/storms later Weds. night or Thurs. So, definitely an overall wetter pattern after the weekend. As will be the case much of the summer, less rain for N. Michigan.
New Delhi, India had a high/low of 111/90 yesterday…today they were 104 with a dust storm lowering the visiblity to nearly 1/2 mile. A Severe Thunderstorm went thru New Delhi and here are some pics. of the damage. Sibi, Pakistan hit 121 deg. Aerial view of snow on the ground in Queensland, New Zealand. Great Lightning shot from Mallorca. Florida cumulonimbus. Snow is forecast for the mountains of Southern Alaska all the way down to 2,000 ft. elevation. Barrow had flurries and the high temp. Thurs. was only 27°. Barrow has had flurries on 23 of the last 26 days. So far this spring it’s been 90 degrees or higher more times in Winnipeg, MB (2) than in Atlanta, GA (1). Check out the locust swarm in Madagascar.
This is fun – ceremonial first pitches. What the heck happened to Nolan Ryan? Great pitches from George Bush and Bill Clinton…Obama’s was too high and too far to the left. 2.5% ice cover left on Lake Superior Friday am.
The European weekly maps show warm for the next week for SW Michigan…cool for week two and slightly cool for week 3-4. With this pattern setting up, we should be grateful for the rain we get. The storm track, as I’ve been saying, should shift just south of our area for much of June with WNW flow. Lots of beautiful, comfortable days ahead.