Severe Risk Monday – Wednesday

May 31st, 2014 at 11:42 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook These are the SPC Severe Weather Risk Areas for today, tomorrow, Tuesday and on the right, days 4 (Weds.).  We are in the General (green color) thunderstorm outlook for Sunday night and Monday.  As I write this, Monday has a “See Text” in over N. Illinois and strong storms are expected just to the south of Michigan over the Tues./Weds. period. (click the links to read the discussions for each day).  The Storm Prediction Center is most concerned about the Tues. PM to Weds. PM storms that are expected across IL-IN-OH (remember I’ve talked about a dominant storm track just south of Michigan).  SPC says (for Tues./Weds.):  “LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.”  We’ll have to keep an eye on Monday PM to see if there is an area of clearing, where it heats up and we create enough instability for some (marginal?) severe cells in the S. Great Lakes.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven, Here’s the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion.

47 Responses to “Severe Risk Monday – Wednesday”

  1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    The level of severity is a big question mark right now. I just hope we get some decent rain.

    1. Jeff (Portland) says:

      + 1 on the rain

  2. I wish I had a reliable enough car to go see some of those Indiana storms but I do not trust taking my year 2000 car that far. Maybe the forecast will change the next few days and we can slide it up into Michigan farther but it doesn’t sound likely right now.

  3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    I thought that the outlook called for warm temperatures. Pretty much every day this past week has been way above average. I have to go to a graduation party at 2:00 and Im not looking forward to it. Last Monday I passed out in Gander Mountain after standing in the heat at a driving range.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      I meant, “I thought the outlook called for COLD temperatures!” That kind of ruins the entire meaning of my comment. I guess I can’t get the word ‘heat’ out of my head :p

  4. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Today is Fixxxerific. 80 and not a cloud in the sky.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Up to 86* now over here. I’ll be inside the rest of the day now.

    2. fixxxer says:

      Nice day. Too bad i wasted 1/2 of it at the auto shop. Damn cars.

      1. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Do you ever feel a bit strange when you consider that among the many feeble minds who check in here from time to time, you’re the ONLY one who has to resort to swearing on a regular basis?

  5. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    I’m going to be irked if all the active weather misses me to the south by a few counties…

    1. Remember that is Day 4 and Day 5 outlooks. That risk area will change a good 3-4 times until then. Typically I noticed they stay conservative going out that far and by Day 2 they expand it out more. We are not out of the woods for a MCS here

  6. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Another fantastic over 80 degree day. Nice and WARM. Bring it.

  7. Jack says:

    Can We HIT 90 degrees SUNDAY??? Stay CUEDDDD….. ;-)

    1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

      Lets Hope not Jack !!!

      1. Jack says:

        I hope So, The HOTTER The BETTER !! Bring on The HEAT !!! Stay CUEDDD.

      2. Brian(Grandville) says:

        Like this

    2. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

      It is hot enough today. 70′s would be awesome!

  8. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Wow, 86 degrees in GR! Warmer than the forecasts again.

  9. John (Norton Shores) says:

    It sounds like if that front comes just a bit more north for the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe things could get very stormy hear with the possibility of a MCS event. That is going to be a timeframe to watch.

  10. Jack says:

    For your viewing Pleasure ISS flyover schedule here.

  11. Jack says:

    spotthestation.nasa.gov/sightings/view.cfm?country=United_States…

  12. fixxxer says:

    We shall see how the rest of the summer goes. A week of warm weather still doesnt mean we wont have a chilly summer. I hope this heat spell isnt all we get.

  13. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    Heat Index on weatherbug sitting @ 118

  14. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    83 glorious degrees here, precisely as forecasted once again.

  15. Jack says:

    Official HIGH in GR Today…88 degrees !!! 90* on SUNDAY ?? Heeheeee….stay HOT CUEDDD…. ;-)

  16. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

    Just A reminder for Pets and Kids… When the outside temperature is 93 degrees Fahrenheit, The temperature inside a car can reach 125 degrees in just 20 minutes and 140 degrees in 40 minutes even if a window is cracked open. A car parked in direct sunlight can reach 131- 172 degrees Fahrenheit, even after only fifteen minutes. At that temperature it only takes a matter of minutes for children to die or suffer permanent disability.
    (North

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      LIGHT ONE UP FOR ME JACK BROTHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. Jerry Hoag says:

    It will be interesting to see Day 4 and Day 5 maybe lifted up north by a few hundred miles to include us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring on them there storms!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HAPPY ANNIVERSARY DERECHO 1998!!!!!!!!!!!!

  18. Jerry Hoag says:

    HEY BROTHER JACK YOU HERE MAN??????? DID YOU GO TO INDY’S PARTY????? I DIDNT GO, AS YOU PROBABLY SAW….NO ONE PICKED ME UP……BUT THAT WAS OK…ALL IS FORGIVEN INDY!!!!!!! I HOPE I DIDNT MISS ANYTHING….I REALLY WANTED TO KISS THE BRICKS…………………..

  19. Jerry Hoag says:

    WHAT TIMES ARE THE ISS FLYOVERS TONIGHT??????????

    1. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

      Your best bet is late tonight or around 5AM Sunday. If you google International Space Station you can put in where you live & it will tell you. Hope this helps.

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        Sandy thank you so much!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I greatly appreciate it!!!!!

    1. michael g (SE GR) says:

      Apparently he doesn’t feel the same apprehension about leaving my child an electric bill that’s beyond paying.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I’ve never seen a President cause so much fear and panic. A good friend of mine is a gun dealer. When Obama was first elected, my friend swore up and down that his administration would go door-to-door and take everyone’s guns. He was dead serious and no one could convince him otherwise. Of course, that never happened m

    3. Ansel says:

      well overdue imo

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNSZ62xiD4M No to “skyrocketing” utility rates on the poor, the middle class, minorities, the elderly, the disabled, those on fixed income and children.

  20. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

    Wife, daughter, 2 of her friends and I spent the day out on Spring Lake today. Water felt fantastic, and we all had a great day!!! A little red now, but I hope that doesn’t keep us from getting out again Sunday. Keep this weather coming!!!!

  21. Jerry Hoag says:

    I remember this day very well….THE DATE OF THE DERECHO THAT HIT US BACK IN 1999….I stayed awake the whole night and watched the Derecho coming at us….then when it hit us I of course woke the family and had them go to the basement to get out of trees falling chances. Then when we could got them into my car and drove around to check out all the damage….Got tons of pitures..

  22. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    NWS Northern Indiana says: MODELS INDICATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT TO
    OUR WEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS 50KT LLJ WILL IMPINGE ON E/W SFC
    BOUNDARY AND HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL SUPPORT WITH 50-60KT SPEED MAX.
    MODELS OFFER VARYING SOLNS ON EVOLUTION/TRACK/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
    SO STILL GOOD IDEA TO KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. WITH BETTER
    FORCING AND UPPER SUPPORT THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEM SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
    NEED TO BE MONITORED…INGREDIENTS FOR HVY RAIN ALSO TAKING SHAPE
    WITH E/W SFC BOUNDARY…DIVERGENT THICKNESS PATTERN DOWNSTREAM FROM
    MCS INITIATION AND PW 1.5-2.0 INCHES. SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
    AREA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A DRY
    FCST BY DAY 7.

  23. INDY says:

    Thanks fixer for the input on your car!!!! Weather news Bill nother great day outside u rock! for the blogers that enjoy them nice days this sprites for u!!! Mother Nature at its best thanks for the nice fire we had tonight out thee YARDofBRICKS!!!! INDYY!!!

  24. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I just saw a satellite fly by about 5 min ago don’t know if it was the space station or not …too far up for me to see the guys waving out the window.

  25. INDY says:

    We have a party going on out at thee YARDofBRICKS We want to see lightning!! Thank u Mother Nature, Bill for the nice weather we have going outside!! INDYY!

  26. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Anybody catch the moon tonight , I saw it earlier looked really cool interesting glow to it.

  27. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center
    May 29 at 5:05pm ·
    Preliminary tornado reports centroid YTD, 2005-2014. The year is the third slowest start over past 10y with the center of activity about average.

Leave a Reply