Scattered Showers/Heavy Storms Monday PM/NightJune 1st, 2014 at 9:32 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
2 pm – some general (non-thunderstorm) gusts of 40-50 mph in the last hour…gust to 51 mph at the Ford Airport (GRR) and 48 mph at Castle Park in Holland (Regionial Airport). UPDATE FROM GRR NWS: ” ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014
“INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS MORNING AS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS
AND SOLID TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE WARMED READINGS TO AROUND 80.
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -4C. WIND FIELDS ARE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE WITH THE 850MB LLJ PROGD TO BE IN THE 30-40
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL JET IS ON THE ORDER OF 45
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KNOTS AT 21Z. A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO PLOW EAST AS WELL MARCHING ACROSS
WISCONSIN TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN AT 15Z.
SO…THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST THE
SCATTERED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. OF EQUAL CONCERN
THOUGH WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS AS PWAT VALUES ARE UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR
MARGINAL HAIL AS WELL.
IN TERMS OF MORPHOLOGY THERE WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL LAKE
SHADOW IN THE DIVERGENT WINDS OFF THE LAKE AT LEAST INITIALLY. LIFT
VIA THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD PUSH A DECENT SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER THOUGH WILL BE INLAND FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 131 AND POINTS
EAST. HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD
DISCRETE CELLS FIRING INITIALLY FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A LINE OF
STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD BE
Here’s GRR looping radar. The morning run of the NAM gives G.R. only 0.22″ of rain, but is probably underdone. The strongest storms will contain strong, gusty winds and heavy rain. The timing is right for many of us with the rain on Monday and at night and we do need the rain. The rain will move out around daybreak and tomorrow should be partly sunny and dry with lower humidity. A significant severe weather event is likely to unfold mainly south of us Tues. PM to early Weds. See thread on severe weather (including moderate risk of “widespread wind damage”) above. The morning run of the NAM brings heavy rain to much of our area on Weds./Weds. night (it’s probably overdone with its +2″ for G.R.), but this is going to be a strong system for early June with severe storms in the warm sector and overrunning rain in the cool sector. It looks dry and pleasant from Thurs. to Saturday. Catch us on TV for the forecast updates.
The high temp. Sunday was 88° in G.R., 85° in Kalamazoo, 75° at the beach in Muskegon, 50.7° at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy 40 miles west of Holland, 90° at Traverse City and 46.4° at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy west of Traverse City.
Links: Grand Rapids radar, Northern Indiana radar, Chicago radar, Detroit radar and Milwaukee radar. Here’s regional radar, the College of DuPage Radar Map (pick any radar in the U.S.), College of DuPage Grand Rapids radar, GFS snowfall for the next 120 hours and NAM model snowfall for the next 84 hours. the West Michigan Lightning Tracker, National Lightning Tracker, the local warning/advisory map and the National warning/watch/advisory map, and a surface weather map. You can checkout the latest Grand Rapids NWS discussion, the Northern Indiana NWS discussion (includes the Michigan Counties that border Indiana), the discussion for Northern Lower Michigan, and Eastern Lower Michigan. Check out Storm Total Precipitation (until they reset it). Here’s the Spyglass Condos Weather Station the S. Haven GLERL station, the Muskegon GLERL station, the Grand Haven Steelheaders webcam and weather station, and the weather station at Holland State Park. Check out the Maranatha Webcam at Lake Michigan and links to webcams. Here’s the infrared satellite loop (night) and the visible satellite loop (daytime), Lake Michigan water temperatures (summer). Here’s storm reports from SW Michigan, Northern Michigan, NE Illinois, SE. Wisconsin, Upper Michigan and E. Michigan. Check out the wind and wave height at the South Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the North Mid-Lake Michigan Buoy (Apr. to Nov. only), the buoy at Big Sable Point near Ludington, the weather station at Manistee Harbor and the weather station on the beach at St. Joseph. Here’s Michigan wind gusts from MesoWest, data from the MAWN agricultural weather stations and Weather Underground (data at the bottom from private weather stations). Check out the webcam at Krupp’s Resort, where the snow has finally melted and the lake ice is gone. Here’s the U.S. Low Temperature map. Here’s a live look at the Houghton Bridge. Here’s the Consumers Energy Power Outage Map. Here’s Closings.