June will not end up a “hot” month

June 2nd, 2014 at 8:21 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

610temp.new   814temp.new  500mb Here we have the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature forecast for June 8-12, the 8-14 day temperature forecast for June 10-16 and the 8-14 day 500 millibar (a constant pressure surface) height anomaly (difference from average) map.  Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks give higher than average probabilities for cooler than average temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico.  The 500 mb. map forecasts an upper level ridge in the Pacific NW and a trough in the East.  This would give the Great Lakes Region a WNW flow.  The CPC forecast for June is for higher than average probabilities for cooler than normal weather over the N. Plains and Great Lakes and for the main storm track to be from Nebraska to the Southeast U.S.  This would give Michigan near to slightly below average rainfall.  It would give ample rain to the “Corn Belt” and a general good start to the growing season across the U.S.   The heat will be concentrated from the SW Plains across the Desert SW and (occasionally) up into the Pacific NW.  Drought will continue in Arizona and California (with high fire danger), but be low to average over much of the rest of the country.   We are below average in both the number of wildfires and the number of acres burned this year (same as last year).

45-day forecast from the CFSv2 shows cool over the Great Lakes and much of the Arctic…even hotter than usual in India and the Southern Plains.  If the warm water south of Alaska is still there in early winter…we could be in for a cool start to winter in the Great Lakes.

27 Responses to “June will not end up a “hot” month”

  1. As much as Id like a nice line of storms, I do not foresee us getting it and it sliding through Indiana. The rain today was much needed and we will get plenty Wednesday I am sure. It would be nice to get some severe weather. I have NEVER seen a season this quiet in our state. Sometimes I wish we didn’t have Lake Michigan. I could have died in Lake Michigan in 2009 if it wasn’t for help on shore. I got caught in a rip current and tried the swim vertical to shore thing which wasnt working so I was weak and was giving up. It goes into more depth but it was pretty scary so I usually dont tell it.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Kyle just FYI you swim parallel to the shore , as maybe you know this now but I couldn’t tell from your post so I’m just lookin out for ya! :)

      1. Yes parallel that’s what I meant. I did that and it didn’t work. It’s goes deeper but it’s sensitive to me considering trying to get out of the water and rescued my feet were a torn mess. I have to scare still today in them

      2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Yes , Rip – currents are no joke , glad someone spotted ya ! I was in Hawaii body surfing ( wanted to body board but to big ) 12-14 ft waves and got held under for over a minute so I know the water can be scary at times if you don’t respect it’s power. ( different then a rip , but scary )

  2. INDY says:

    I have been saying this for 2 weeks now cool weather coming the 2nd week of June!! Tom Skilling said the heat will build next week and u will see that on the 7 day at the end of the show that must of Slipped out maybe a err becouse at the end news cast he showed only 70′s and said nothing about heat coming!! Maybe Tom had to many sprites today!! INDYY!!

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      INDYY WAY TO GO TOM SKILLING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! UMMMM SHARE WHAT YOUR SMOKING MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HOAGIEMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  3. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Bill , wait a minute as there are two problems I see with this thread. First being since when did Rocky lend you the eternal blue below average CPC outlooks and second , you know this is only going to cause an uptick in Fixxer’s miserable posts…. hehe. I’m of course kidding with regard to your thread , as it is what it is and translates to nice weather so I’ll take it.!

  4. Brian (Grandville) says:

    One 80 degree day in the 8 day=perfect.

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      +1

  5. Cliff(KZOO) says:

    here’s to hoping its wrong, wouldn’t be the first time.

  6. Jeff (Portland) says:

    Well my yard got a much need drink today. I am happy:)

    1. Jeff (Portland) says:

      needed*

    2. Jerry Hoag says:

      +1 gazillions………………..

  7. Kyle says:

    I believe about a month ago everybody was saying the same thing. May was supposed to be 1-2 degrees below normal and we ended up above normal even with the crazy cold water to our west!

  8. Kevin(Rockford) says:

    Any update on predicted precip thru Thursday?

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Maybe Wednesday Kevin as we have greater than a 50% chance of seeing 0.25i and that goes up as you move south , but other than that we should remain dry.

      http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98fndfd.gif

  9. Jerry Hoag says:

    All eyes are on Wednesday!!!!!!!!!!! And Tomorrow!!!!!! A huge SEVERE OUTBREAK TO OCCUR!!!!!!!!!!! Where will the Derecho go, if one forms?????? only the Derecho knows and GOD only knows……..everyone should watch this one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    OF COURSE, IF A DERECHO FORMS….

  10. Jerry Hoag says:

    Really for Grand Rapids::::::: When will we ever see a nice line of severe Thunderstorms, and more than just one line. Doesn’t ever sound like we will with scenarios like this::

    MAIN IMPACT WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM CENTERS AROUND A CHANCE FOR
    SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AFTER DRY
    WEATHER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN LOW 70S
    THURSDAY / AROUND 80 BY SATURDAY…AN UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
    MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
    REGION INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE AT 500 MB ALONG
    WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ THAT NOSES INTO THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
    NIGHT WILL HELP CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS IA/MO/IL. THIS ACTIVITY
    MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

    LATEST TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION PER THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT FAVORABLE
    FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IN COMPARISON…THE 12Z GFS DEVELOPS A MORE
    NEGATIVELY TILTED ULJ…TIGHTER SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPS
    A MID 990S LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SEEMS
    A BIT OVERDONE FOR EARLY JUNE BUT NEVERTHELESS WE WILL HAVE TO SEE
    HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME. FOR NOW…POPS OF 40-50
    PERCENT SEEM REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT.

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Damn with this it might as well just be snowing hard out there!!!!! SORRY FOR BEING A NEGATIVE NANCY…….LOL…….OR FIXXER….LOL…..GETTING SICK, OF ALL THIS SEVERE WEATHER MISSING GRAND RAPIDS ALL THE DAMN TIME….SORRY TO FOR ALL THE SWEARING…..REALLY WOULD LIKE SOME GOOD THUNDERSTORMS HERE…….

      1. SBPortage002 says:

        And lo and behold, more storm action tracking along and south of I-94. This time it misses me. Even I think sometimes it doesn’t seem fair to those north of here.

  11. GB says:

    This is classic Bill well at least he is consistent on the type of weather he favors

    1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

      Ya because he made up the CPC charts himself?

  12. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Liking the weather! A bit cooler but still very nice weather! I’ll take mid 70s all summer lomg.

  13. Tammy says:

    Any predictions for the week of July 19-27 I know your not God but last years camping was unbelievably chilly in interlochen

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I’ve been there before, up at the State Park. I’ve kayaked on the lake there. It should be a good week. with this pattern, it does get cool at night when the winds go light or calm (relatively dry air), but overall it should be a good week.

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