June will not end up a “hot” monthJune 2nd, 2014 at 8:21 pm by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
Here we have the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature forecast for June 8-12, the 8-14 day temperature forecast for June 10-16 and the 8-14 day 500 millibar (a constant pressure surface) height anomaly (difference from average) map. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks give higher than average probabilities for cooler than average temperatures from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. The 500 mb. map forecasts an upper level ridge in the Pacific NW and a trough in the East. This would give the Great Lakes Region a WNW flow. The CPC forecast for June is for higher than average probabilities for cooler than normal weather over the N. Plains and Great Lakes and for the main storm track to be from Nebraska to the Southeast U.S. This would give Michigan near to slightly below average rainfall. It would give ample rain to the “Corn Belt” and a general good start to the growing season across the U.S. The heat will be concentrated from the SW Plains across the Desert SW and (occasionally) up into the Pacific NW. Drought will continue in Arizona and California (with high fire danger), but be low to average over much of the rest of the country. We are below average in both the number of wildfires and the number of acres burned this year (same as last year).
45-day forecast from the CFSv2 shows cool over the Great Lakes and much of the Arctic…even hotter than usual in India and the Southern Plains. If the warm water south of Alaska is still there in early winter…we could be in for a cool start to winter in the Great Lakes.