Partly Sunny Today, Rain Mid-Week

June 9th, 2014 at 3:18 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Lake Superior Ice Virginia Killough and MQT NWS facebook  Lake Superior Ice MQT NWS facebook and Allison Tripp Pontynen Icebergs floating on Lake Superior – 2nd week of June! These pics. are from the MQT NWS facebook page (and Allison Tripp Pontynen and Virginia Killough).  The pics. were taken Sunday.  There are STILL floating ice chunks in Keewenaw Bay and L’Anse Bay – in the 2nd week of June!!  Here’s a MODIS Lake Superior satellite pic. from Sunday.  Here’s a Lake Michigan MODIS picture from Sunday (from NOAA Coastwatch).   Check out the ice on the Arctic Ocean on the Barrow AK webcam.  Barrow is north of the Arctic Circle, so they get 24 hours of daylight at this time of year. The warmest temperature Barrow has had this year so far is 38°.   Here’s North American snow and ice cover.  There’s still some snow in far north Quebec and Nunavut.   Hudson Bay is still ice-covered and there is still some ice at the north end of Lake Winnipeg.   The town of Alert in northern Canada hasn’t been warmer than 28° through the first 8 days of June.  If you like winter, check out the Mt. McKinley (AK) forecast.   Check out the snow in the country of Chile.   Record cold this past weekend in Central Canada.  Parts of northern Manitoba are in for 6-12″ of snow, falling heaviest around the Hudson Bay shore, including Churchill.  Residents of eastern Turkey “astonished” by late season snow.      Lava fountain in Pavlov AK.    CHECK THIS OUT:  A tornado AND snow!   Here’s national severe reports from Sunday (tornadoes in Colorado and NE New Mexico).  Funnel cloud spotted from Pike’s Peak.  WOW!  Snowplows used to clear hail in Colorado.  WOW, check this out:  Lightning “obliterates” tree.

Model update – some sunshine today – though both the NAM caribou and GFS plot have 0.02″ of rain for this PM – this would come with lake-breeze convergence showers with a general ne wind and a wnw wind off the lake in the afternoon.  The European is the wettest for midweek with 1.02″ of rain for G.R. from Tues. evening thru Thurs. AM – the NAM (car.) has 0.30″ Weds.  The GFS -plot has 0.23″ mainly Weds. PM.  I’ll put a little more weight on the European numbers right now.  Severe weather is unlikely, though not impossible – it doesn’t look like a good situation.  Whew..4 am – goodnight.  Oh – if you were at festival around 5 pm and you heard a loud boom – that was part of the act at the City Stage on Monroe Mall…loud bangs go well with beach balls, I guess.

128 Responses to “Partly Sunny Today, Rain Mid-Week”

  1. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Can’t believe there is still ice up there! Who can complain about the recent weather we have been having? Well, I know one person here who will. It has been great and that great weather looks to continue! Anybody ready for World Cup Soccer? Lets Go USA! They’re playing in a tough group.but they should do good!

    1. fixxxer says:

      the only complaint i have is the chilly mornings we seem to be having. other than that its been ok. i see woodtv is still riding the cold weather train dry talking about ice and snow in june.

  2. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Fixxxer it’s noteworthy/news worthy. Did you catch Bill’s mention of warmer than avg weather coming soon? The weather has been perfect!

  3. INDY says:

    We can only hope fixer keeps his puppet of the blog getting a little old every time Rocky says something we have rody playing with himself after Rocky blogs a post!! Weather news sprites are going down nice today the YARDofBRICKS summer day care is rolling and the sun shine is high in the sky we still could use some rain!! INDYY!!

  4. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Speaking of playing with yourself, you and Rocky still broke up? Fantastic. I love it.

    1. INDY says:

      Scanning the Bills blog!! settle down fixer!! get some fresh air!! INDYY!

    2. matt says:

      You got it rod

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        fixxxer is talking to himself again! Who knew?

        1. matt says:

          Warm weather boo hoo for you who knew imagine that thanks for listening

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    El Nino odds raised again over the weekend.

    The June 5, 2014 El Niño update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives a 70% chance that El Niño will form this summer, and an 80% by fall.

    Forecast models continue to show the peak of the El Niño will occur later this Fall, with a magnitude near +1.5°C above average, as defined by the ENSO 3.4 Index. Now this is not a “Super El Niño” by any means, but it is very strong and there is still uncertainty regarding how strong it will get.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/

    1. Jen in Middleville says:

      But what does it all mean Bazzle? ;-)

      So a strong El Nino does what again to our winter? Trying to decide (early I know) on how we want to handle our winter heating.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        Cooler August/September

        Warmer and drier fall and winter

      2. reality says:

        El Niño means…the Niño.

        1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Spanish to English = The child or boy….

      3. michael g (SE GR) says:

        Depends on how strong, (Travis’ description of “very strong” is at least a bit of a stretch) and where it’s centered. An El Nino centered farther west often brings us colder and somewhat drier than normal winter weather.

        1. michael g (SE GR) says:

          Or apparently what Bill said below. Guess I should have read farther before posting. :-)

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      I have said for MONTHS on this blog that the chance of an El Nino is 100%. It’s already there if you look at the sea surface anomaly chart. I have also said that El Ninos are different. If they are centered more toward S. America – it would be more likely to bring a milder winter to the Great Lakes. If it’s centered in the Central Pacific (a real possibility, given the overall cold PDO and the warm pool south of Alaska), then we could still have a cold winter, as we did in 1977-78 (which followed the very cold and snowy winter of 1976-77. If the El Nino is strong, we are more likely to have a mild winter in the Great Lakes. If it is weak, we may have a cool winter. So there are four possibilities…weak and close to S. America…strong and close to S. America…weak and in the Central Pacific…strong and in the Central Pacific. We don’t know where we are headed for sure, but we can certainly have a cold and or snowy winter with a weak to moderate El Nino…so when you hear the media shout “EL NINO” (and they may show video of the winters of 1982-83 or 1997-98), don’t assume that we’re going to have a warm winter.

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        It’s looking a lot stronger than the weak one you were mentioning a few months ago.

        Still lots of variables to go

        1. Bill Steffen says:

          I was among the first I know of to say that we were definitely headed toward El Nino. I also said that weak/moderate was more likely that the “Super Nino” that the climate alarmists have been hoping for. CPC is forecasting a “moderate event” http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Again, with the warm pool south of Alaska, the El Nino is more likely to be centered more out in the ocean rather than at the S. American coast. The El Nino of 1997-98 reached 2.4, 1982-83 was 2.2. This one looks like it’ll peak between 1.0 and 1.5.

        2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

          ROCK ON Bill! Thanks for setting Travis straight! Keep up the good work!

        3. Robert(Plainwell) says:

          Still waiting for other ocean/atmosphere connections for the strength of this El-Nino.

          https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/06/03/the-201415-el-nino-part-10-june-2014-update-still-waiting-for-the-feedbacks/

        4. ralphdraw3 says:

          And there appears to be a problem with your “Antarctic sea ice is expanding – no AGW”

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/06/06/climate-change-is-getting-worse-so-why-is-antarcticas-ice-sheet-expanding/

          “But that isn’t global warming … or is it?

          Here’s the kicker: The strengthening of the SAM (Southern Annular Mode – also called the Antarctic Oscillation) over recent decades has been directly linked to human activity. Since the 1940s, ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gases have caused the westerly winds to intensify and migrate south toward Antarctica.

          The net effect of this drives sea ice further north and increases its total extent. There is still plenty of great work ahead to improve our understanding and modeling of Antarctica’s climate, but a basic message is
          emerging. Far from discounting climate change in the Southern Hemisphere, the apparent paradox of Antarctic sea ice is telling us that it is real and that we are contributing to it. The Antarctic canary is alive, but its feathers are increasingly wind-ruffled.”

        5. Bill Steffen says:

          What’s next – ice that forms on Tuesday doesn’t count? Ice that forms under a full moon doesn’t count? You guys had to come up with something. You continue to make failed predictions: http://www.lowerwolfjaw.com/agw/quotes.htm

          Intensifying winds break up Arctic ice! (look at the storm in August 2007)…intensifying winds sure broke up Lake Michigan ice on Feb. 21st: http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdata/cwops/webdata/statistic/gif/m2013_2014_ice.gif It’s the best excuse you can come up, but intensifying winds doesn’t cut it.

        6. Brian (Grandville) says:

          So by your teams theory, global warming is actually increasing ice in some parts of the world. Good one.

        7. ralphdraw3 says:

          There are 5 other glaciers in West Antarctica – they are all melting and retreating. What about these other glaciers?

        8. ralphdraw3 says:

          Bill probably knows this quote because it comes directly from the American Meteorological Society’s paper on climate change:

          http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechange.html

          How is climate changing?

          Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal, according to many different kinds of evidence. Observations show increases in globally averaged air and ocean temperatures, as well as widespread melting of snow and ice and rising globally averaged sea level. Surface temperature data for Earth as a whole, including readings over both land and ocean, show an increase of about 0.8°C (1.4°F) over the period 1901─2010 and about 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the period 1979–2010 (the era for which satellite-based temperature data are routinely available). Due to natural variability, not every year is warmer than the preceding year globally. Nevertheless, all of the 10 warmest years in the global temperature records up to 2011 have occurred since 1997, with 2005 and 2010 being the warmest two years in more than a century of global records. The warming trend is greatest in northern high latitudes and over land. In the U.S., most of the observed warming has occurred in the West and in Alaska; for the nation as a whole, there have been twice as many record daily high temperatures as record daily low temperatures in the first decade of the 21st century.

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          First, climate always changes…there is no such thing as static climate. We’ve had both glaciers and palm trees in G.R. long before people started using incandescent light bulbs.

          Second, we know that right now, global temperatures are not warming. Global temperatures have been steady since 2002: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif (NASA Data)

          Third, snow and ice is not melting now any more than in past years. Global sea ice is ABOVE AVERAGE EXTENT: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg Snowfall has been INCREASING over the past 20 years, not decreasing: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201212-201302.gif

          Fourth, you state that the temperature rose 0.8° in 110 years. That’s not much and some of that is certainly due to urbanization (and such things as the lack of major volcanoes)

          Fifth, 1934 was the warmest year. NASA made a correction: http://articles.latimes.com/2007/aug/15/science/sci-temp15

          Sixth, most of the state (and city) record high temperatures came from the 1930s, not recently: http://www.globalwarming.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Christy-Number-State-High-Low-Temperatures-Aug-2012-300×204.jpg

        10. ralphdraw3 says:

          Don’t tell me, Bill. Tell all the people in your profession who write these papers. Tell them they don’t know what they’re talking about! Tell them, “So what if 2005 and 2010 are the rwo warmest years in the last 100 years.”. ( talk about Antarctic sea ice and Al Sharpton )

          Tell them that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere will have no effect on temperature. Maybe CO2 isn’t a greenhouse gas after all! Tell them that dumping 30 billion metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each year is no big deal!

          I am so waiting for the new AMS statement, filled with quotes from Judith Curry..

        11. Bill Steffen says:

          I just gave you 6 points in my previous comment. You didn’t respond to any of them. NASA did say that 1934 was the warmest year. I never said doubling CO2 would have no effect. Listen to what Dr. Robert Brown, Professor at Duke Univ. says about that:

          “…the skeptics do not “deny” AGW, certainly not the scientists or professional weather people (I myself am a physicist). What they challenge is the catastrophic label and the alleged magnitude of the projected warming on a doubling of CO_2. They challenge this on rather solid empirical grounds and with physical arguments and data analysis that is every bit as scientifically valid as that used to support larger estimates, often obtaining numbers that are in better agreement with observation.”

          Did you read that, Ralph? “better agreement with observation”.

        12. ralphdraw3 says:

          Bill, I appreciate your nuanced position. So what do we about GHGs and AGW? Nothing? CO2 level will continue to increase in the atmosphere, headed toward 450 ppm. In addition, More CO2 will be dissolved into the oceans increasing ocean acidification, AGW’s evil twin.

          Sea levels will continue to rise – slowly or rapidly – threatening the entire East Coast and Gulf Coast. The sea level has gone up 7 inches in the last century according to the AMS paper.

          So what do we do? Allow steady increase in CO2 in the atmosphere to continue?

        13. ralphdraw3 says:

          On your point #4:

          1934 HOTTEST YEAR IN THE US – NOT GLOBAL

          1934 is new hottest U.S. year after NASA checks records
          August 15, 2007|Thomas H. Maugh II | Times Staff Writer
          A slight adjustment to U.S. temperature records has bumped 1998 as the hottest year in the country’s history and made the Dust Bowl year of 1934 the new record holder, according to NASA.

          But the re-ranking did not affect global records, and 1998 remains tied with 2005 as the hottest year on record, climatologist Gavin A. Schmidt of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York said Tuesday.

        14. Bill Steffen says:

          That’s only after Gavin Schmidt and company “adjusted” the temperatures from the 1930s downward. Some of those temperatures have been “lowered” FIVE TIMES. That’s in order to make the present look warmer than the past. If you look at actually data from weather stations that do not have siting issues and have a record from the 1930s…the 1930s wins the heat contest. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/

          What we DON’T do about CO2 is force utility rates to “skyrocket” – a terrible burden on the poor and middle class – thinking it will budge global temperature by 1/10th of one degree. It’s easy to see how insincere you guys are about this because you have no interest in what’s going on in Communist China. While carbon emissions are falling in the U.S., Japan and Europe – they are skyrocketing in China. China will either laugh in your face, or try and get $$$$$ from the U.S. to “fix” their problem. CO2 is obviously overemphasized in the (IPCC and others) climate models. The first thing you should do is redo the models so that the output matches observation (no warming since 2002).

        15. ralphdraw3 says:

          OK Gavin and NASA are not lying about US record temp in 1934 but ARE LYING about the global record temp. Have you contacted NASA about their utter incompetence and deceptions in this matter? ( Yet you use their 1996-to present chart incessantly.)

          And, Bill, you have NO IDEA what to do about increasing GHGs.

          No clue…

          You know what not to do!

          Disappointed in you, Bill – you da man, with the charts, the answers and little comebacks for everything. Yet you give me Fox Noise talking points on CO2 emissions. What a shame..

          So 450 ppm CO2 here we come – damn those Chinese! Even though WE are responsible for most of the CO2 in the atmosphere now, the Chinese being late-comers to the fossil fuel burning orgy. We, Bill, are the most polluting and wasteful nation in history regarding energy.

          (I don’t know who Steve Goddard is or why he doesn’t publish his findings in a journal or peer reviewed publication – that is how science is usually done. Not from WordPress blogs.)

        16. Bill Steffen says:

          NASA is telling the truth when they say that global temperatures have been flat since 2002: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          The only way they get current weather warmer than the mid 1930s is to “adjust” the temperatures…to make the past look cooler and the present look warmer. If you look at raw data, you can only conclude it was warmer in the mid 1930s.

          I’m not surprised that you don’t know who Steve Goddard is. You have a very limited input of information. You gave your sources before in a previous comment…the great climatologists Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert…and MSNBC. You get your science from Al Sharpton and Rachel Maddow. Steve Goddard exposed the Hockey Stick fraud. Here’s his website: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/

          Using energy is a good thing, Ralph – Go to a distant part of the world where they don’t have safe and reliable energy and life is hard…and short.

          You are more interested in punishing America than controlling CO2 – otherwise you’d think long and hard about China…but that doesn’t concern you…you just want to push high taxes and fees on the poor and middle class and I’m standing in your way.

        17. ralphdraw3 says:

          You know Bill, they are probably more than a million WordPress blogs. Maybe 10 million or 100 million. I dont this guy Goddard. Heck, everyone has a WordPress blog.

          Why isn’t Goddard’s stuff published in a scientific journal which is peer reviewed? Isn’t that they scientific findings are made public and checked for errors. Perhaps Goddard can get a gig writing for a magazine or newspaper… that would be better than a WordPress blog…

          Yes and Michael Mann is a real slouch:

          Michael E. Mann is Distinguished Professor of Meteorology and Director of the Earth Systems Science Center at Penn State University. Despite being in the public eye, he continues an active research program in climate science and has published over 160 peer-reviewed papers in leading scientific journals. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union. In 2012 he received the Hans Oeschger Medal of the European Geosciences Union. Along with other scientists, he contributed to the reports of the IPCC, which was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He is also a co-founder of the award-winning website http://www.RealClimate.org.

          Bill, you should contact Penn State and ask that Mann be fired academic misconduct. I don’t why this hasn’t already happened.

        18. ralphdraw3 says:

          So your position is:

          Keep using enormous amounts of energy (even very dirty energy like coal and tar sands oil)

          Don’t worry

          450 ppm CO2 is no big deal eventhough we have known for 150 years that it is a greenhouse gas

          Sea level rise – overblown / move inland!

          Ocean acidification – who cares, we aren’t fish!!!

          That’s quite a gamble you’re betting on

        19. Bill Steffen says:

          Well, I’m not betting on the climate alarmists/profiteers, who’s predictions have been consistently wrong: http://www.climatedialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Figure-2-Pielke.jpg

          No one is “moving inland” – not even the climate profiteers: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/05/how-green-is-al-gores-9-million-montecito-ocean-front-villa/1#.U5uVKnawWhc

          The “enormous” amounts of energy we are using have increased life expectancy substantially and given us a much more comfortable life. Look to those places in the world where there is no safe and reliable energy….and life is very hard…and short.

        20. ralphdraw3 says:

          Bill, who exactly are these “climate profiteers” you talk about and how much money do they make?

          Surely one could get extremely, fabulously wealthy by going into the fossil fuel industry. Like the billionaire Koch brothers who have been funding climate change denialism for years and fund a network of denialist think tanks around the country.

          How much money do you think the American Petroleum Institute has at its disposal?

          And Bill,

          the best scientific information comes from WordPress blogs!

        21. Bill Steffen says:

          Read my links, Ralph – Gore’s worth more money than Mitt Romney – he’s probably the ulitimate climate profiteer: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/08/al-gore-mitt-romney_n_2432534.html

          Just read the links: http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml

        22. ralphdraw3 says:

          Ah, so really hate Al Gore (and Al Sharpton and Rachel Maddow)

          But,

          Al Gore inheritted much or most of his wealth from his father who had invested in oil and fossil fuel.

          Besides, the sale of Current TV is not climate profiteering. It is a media deal.

          AND,

          Gore’s wealth doesn’t come near to the Kings of AGW denialists and carbon profiteers, the Koch brothers:

          Charles and David Koch hit a milestone on Wednesday, as a $1.3 billion boost to their collective fortune sent their net worth above $100 billion, according to Bloomberg News. The brothers are majority stakeholders in Koch Industries, the second-largest privately held company in the U.S., after Cargill Inc.
          Koch Brothers Net Worth Soars Past $100 Billion – Huffington Post
          http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/…/koch-brothers-net-worth_n_5163010.ht...

      2. ralphdraw3 says:

        Bill, I know you like quoting Lovelock on the pause in warming. I will, in turn, quote Richard Muller who was a global warming skeptic and now believes AGW had been occuring and will continue into the future as GHGs increase in the atmosphere. (From 2012 article in the NYTIMES – not Colbert or Stewart, or Hannity for that matter)

        ” CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.

        My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and objective analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, which I founded with my daughter Elizabeth. Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years. Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases.”

        1. ralphdraw3 says:

          Yeah, you guys love the Michael Mann thing, but

          It is old news from 1999

          Muller has changed his position

        2. Bill Steffen says:

          Here’s where you can learn more about ClimateGate and Mann-made global warming: http://wattsupwiththat.com/climategate/

          Michael Mann sure gets a lot of government money: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704541004575010931344004278 and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2398822/posts

          It will be simply delicious if Mark Steyn can get Michael Mann on the witness stand under oath: http://www.steynonline.com/6384/the-climate-of-fear

        3. ralphdraw3 says:

          More from the WAPO article from this month:

          As such, sea ice is a canary in the coal mine for changes to polar climate. That much has certainly been obvious in the Arctic. The dramatic decline of Arctic sea ice since 1981 is now firmly in the public consciousness as proof that global warming is real, and that it is a serious and pressing issue. The Arctic canary is unwell, to say the least.

        4. Bill Steffen says:

          Wow! So sea ice is a canary in the coal mine, eh? Let’s see what sea ice is doing: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg Wow again! Look at how sea ice has INCREASED in the last two years…it’s now at ABOVE AVERAGE extent! NOAA thinks Arctic ice is going to go above average this summer! http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif And Antarctic sea ice set a daily RECORD EXTENT today! http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png There’s much more ice around Antarctica than last year and it’s more than 2 standard deviations from average! The ice has been GROWING for 30 years! http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

        5. ralphdraw3 says:

          Wow, Bill!

          From NOAA, 2013:

          The sea ice area for the Arctic shows near-record minimums since 2002. The maps below show the areas for September (shaded) relative to the median extent (purple line) based on the period 1980-2000. The recent years represent a unique event because they show a year-to-year persistence of minimum ice extents (graph below). Sea ice area is now significantly below the level of the 1980s and earlier.

        6. Bill Steffen says:

          The Arctic Sea Ice Anomaly is forecast to go ABOVE AVERAGE this summer: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif Temperatures are colder than average north of 80° now and they are forecast to stay that way during the summer: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

        7. Bill Steffen says:

          Your source uses 1980-2000 for a base average. They ought to use 1980-2014. NOAA is forecast the Arctic ice anomaly to go POSITIVE this summer: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif

        8. ralphdraw3 says:

          Oh and Bill, has the AMS changed its position on AGW yet? This one is still posted at the NASA website:

          American Meteorological Society
          “It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide.” (2012)

        9. Bill Steffen says:

          Global temperatures fell slightly from 1940 to the late 1970s. That’s when you guys were screaming “global cooling” and (as always) demanding a big tax to “fix it”. Then global temperatures rose from 1980 to 2002 (as expected with both a warm PDO and warm AMO). Now global temperatures have leveled off as the PDO has gone into cool phase. For the last 12-13 years we have NOT seen “rapid change” in global temperature as I keep showing you. Check the graph, Ralph: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif

          Now read this about the AMS: http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/10/the-52-consensus/

        10. ralphdraw3 says:

          The AMS position on global warming : has it changed?

          Yes or No?

        11. ralphdraw3 says:

          I know Bill things haven’t changed a bit since 1998:

          Melting Arctic ice cap at record — ScienceDaily
          http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/…/120924145143.ht...
          Science Daily
          September 24, 2012. Source: University of Calgary. Summary: With Arctic ice cap at record low this summer, a geography professor predicts serious …

          Arctic sea ice shrinks to smallest extent ever recorded – The …

          http://www.theguardian.com › Environment › Sea ice
          The Guardian
          by Adam Vaughan – in 564 Google+ circles
          Sep 14, 2012 – The shrinking of the ice cap was interpreted by environment groups as a … Arctic sea ice extent on 12 September 2012, in white, compared with …

        12. Bill Steffen says:

          What HAS changed is that global temperatures have been flat for 12 years. That was not the forecast by the AMS or the climate alarmists. The data is beyond question from NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif Many scientists have looked at this and changed their opinion on Catastrophic AGW. Again, Dr. James Lovelock:

          ““The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.

          “The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now,” he said.

          “The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,” he added.

          Here’s Arctic ice today: http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi1_ice_ext.png There’s a lot more ice than there was 7 years ago. NOAA forecasts the Arctic ice anomaly to go ABOVE AVERAGE THIS SUMMER: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif

          In the meantime, Antarctic ice extent is at an ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png That’s more than 2 standard deviations from average. Total global sea ice is ABOVE AVERAGE EXTENT: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

  6. INDY says:

    Leafs are starting to fall going to be another record winter coming!! INDYY!!

    1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

      Shhhh. Indy the leaves just popped out. :) I’d go for a cooler summer, cut down on A/C costs, still recovering from propane all winter.

  7. Well it looks like our storm drought is going to continues. This is getting extremely old.

    SHOWERS/STORMS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING SVR STORMS THOUGH AS INSTABILITY IS A LIMITING FACTOR.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      If were supposed to get storms I don’t call that a storm drought, but I know what you mean, the severe weather drought lol ;) don’t worry I am sure one of these days we will get something. We still have all of June and July to go and even August can serve us some severe storms sometimes.

      1. I sure hope things pick up because summertime severe storms are only here for a short window before we get cold again. No doubt this weather and temps are fantastic but some boomers just complete it

        1. fixxxer says:

          Summer is the shortest season here. As i said i dont expect any increase in storms this year.

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          You may be right, Fixxx. There hasn’t been much this year so far.

        3. Jerry Hoag says:

          Kyle you are so right man!!!!!!!!!!!!!! we need some good boomers!!!!!!!!!!!! This year so far has been such a big bummer!!!!!!!!! And the past years…..we need some good boomers…….something Severe……we definetly have been in a Severe Thunderstorm Drought here!!!!!! I DONT MEAN HAVE DAMAGIN STUFF EITHER, we just haven’t had any really good storms here in a while….we are way over due!!!!!

  8. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Our rain chances WPC 24 hr ….

    Day 3:
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf_24hr/p24i_pqpf_ge025_2014060912f060.gif

    10 day loop GFS : ( continued temps end of week – warming trend then taking shape )
    http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/loop/gfs_850_loop.gif

  9. INDY says:

    Looks dry!! INDYY

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      INDYY NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HOAGIEMAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

    Hopefully we’ll see some rain up this way soon. The grass is turning brown and I have to water the garden and all my flower beds every night. The last 2 rain events we had amounted to about 12 drops of rain. The neighbors mowed their lawn on Saturday and it was like a dust bowl. Maybe we’ll get some rain on Wednesday :) Here’s hoping!!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Looks like the best chances for rain Wednesday will stay south of 96 again. We badly need the rain north of 96!

  11. If anyone is looking for a good place for ice cream, go to the KC Cones I think it’s called at 18mile and Northland Drive. They have fantastic ice cream, some of the best I’ve ever had. It’s in Cedar Springs. I went there yesterday afternoon and got there black cherry ice cream and boy was that the best cone I’ve ever had lol ok I know that’s random but if your out for a drive around GR and want a cone I recommend stopping there. Plus there is a bike trail that leads to it

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      My fav is Oink’s in New Buffalo.

      1. I’ve never been to Oinks before but I’ve been to New Buffalo. Next time I’m there I’ll have to try it

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Lol ….I drive by that everyday and yes really good ice cream. My home is east down 18 mile about a mile away…lol.

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        I ride from my home to the bike trail about 3 times a week from cedar into Rockford and once a week I ride into GR on the trail to really get some exercise …..great ride and scenic as well. :)

        1. Yes it’s a nice trail. We did take 18 mile east to Meyers Lake home. 18 mile make a big S shape kind of like the S curve in Grand Rapids going east of the ice cream shop. It’s much better than the S curve though. I don’t like the s curve downtown in heavy traffic

        2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          So did you ride the trail , then take 18 mile rd eat to Myers Lake Rd ? That rd can be a little narrow at times as there is no bike ln …..haven’t ridden out that way yet….

        3. Noo we drove that way home not ride. That curve is pretty dangerous to be on a bike. I’m sure you’ve done it before though

        4. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          Ya , unfortunately I have many times but only to reach the trail , so luckily I’m not on the road for long.

  12. GunLakeDeb says:

    Hey – it’s JUNE 9th. The day I predicted (months ago) the last snow would melt – and I was WRONG because there’s STILL snow on Mt Ripley and ice in Superior….ROFL!!!!!

  13. Jack says:

    It’s SNOWING ( cotton wood) NOW!! @ The YARDofCUES ( N.E. G.R.)…… stay CUEDD & Happy MOANday….. ;-)

  14. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    120 in Death Valley and ice up north. Climate change? :p

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      It is NOT climate change, I’m just kidding. It’s annoying when people rule out one day of the year and say that the climate is changing, when really it is just the short term weather. Last winters drought in California was used by many people to keep awareness of climate change alive during the cold winter… It’s just a short term drought.

  15. Jack says:

    Thanks, For Staying CUED…….I know it’s ONLY Monday, However I GOT FRYDAY on My MIND……CUE: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSowZcvoqr4. LOL…. Stay………..CUEDDD!!! ;-)

  16. Kevin (Marshall) says:

    Midweek forecast calls for the heaviest rains to fall along the I-94 corridor. Sounds like a broken record.

    1. Jeff (Richland) says:

      Sounds good to me! Keep it coming! Had .57″ here yesterday.

  17. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Keep the sunny, cool weather rolling!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      I agree. It can be like this all summer long and I would be just fine with that.

    2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Fantastic weather with average to a little above average temps. I love it. Keep it coming. Who knew?

    3. matt says:

      Warm weather soon. Don’t like it, move. Who knew rock n roll is dead, and the warm weather will be here. Who knew imagine that, thanks for listening.

  18. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    PERFECT WEATHER! UNLESS YOU LIVE AT FIXXXERS HOUSE! IMAGINE THAT!

    1. matt says:

      Imagine that warm weather who knew, don’t like it move. Rock is dead thanks for listening.

      1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

        fixxxer = matt = Rodey = brain dead loser! Who knew?

        1. matt says:

          Look at you boo hoo warm weather thanks for listening

  19. Mark (East Lansing) says:

    Looks like another perfect weekend coming up. Is this our reward for having to weather (pun intended) that long and brutally cold winter?

  20. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I really really hope this forecasted rain comes through Tuesday eve and Wednesday , plz , plz. ….I think they just might come to my house to film a western soon….i think I saw Blonde ( aka. Clint Eastwood ) walk by earlier …lol

  21. mr. negative says:

    Hoping it warms-up sometime throughout 2014…but then again, the year without a summer is already 50% finished.

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      + 100 BAZILLION! Keep it coming!

  22. Jeff (Richland) says:

    How warm do you guys want it?? Since June 1st the high temp here has been at or above average 6 out of 9 days!! The only thing we are lacking is thunderstorms, besides that the weather has been gorgeous! Look to late Sunday and/or early next week – looks like a good chance at storms with a warm front expected to be in the area.

  23. michael g (SE GR) says:

    Less than 10 days until the sun starts sliding south again, and the long road to winter begins. :-)

    1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Rock On and I hope we get absolutely hammered this WINTER! Bring it!

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      It’s so weird how July is the warmest month of the summer yet the sun is starting to go down earlier in July than June, it seems like June would be the warmest month.

      1. Bill Steffen says:

        Think of a pot of water being heated on a stove. If you turn the burner down just a bit, the water continues to get warmer.

        1. Jeff (Richland) says:

          Or taking a piece of meat off the grill and letting it sit…it continues to cook.

        2. ER from GR says:

          Or taking the wind out of a sail, it continues to sail away.

      2. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Okay, thank you, I was just a bit confused.

  24. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I hope we can scoop – up an inch of rain over the next few days , at least .50 -.75 . It’s a bit funny how the heavy rain is all around us , jeez. Lo.

    7 day : total QPF

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

    1. Jack says:

      That Kinda LOOKS LIKE, a STRANGE Colored BUTTERFLY. In My Abstract ART MIND….Any -one ELSE SEE IT ?? Staying CUEDDD… Need RAIN here @ Thee YARDofCUES!!! Thanks, BILL!!

  25. INDY says:

    Nothing wrong with a cool summer !!!! Don’t see a lot of 90′s coming!! INDYY!!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Sounds good to me. Today was a bit warm for me, but no complaints.

    2. fixxxer says:

      We dont need 90s. The current weather is fine. Low to mid 80s.

      1. Brian (Grandville) says:

        Ok, now Im really confused.

  26. kevin. w says:

    Looks like the captain and the morons are blogging today about nothing

  27. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Looks like a decent shot at some rain/storms in the next 48 hours.

    .SHORT TERM…(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

    MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
    SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
    TYPICALLY SRN STREAM CLOSED UPR LOWS TEND TO PREFER A MORE WRN TRACK
    WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST… WHICH SHOULD YIELD A WET PERIOD ACROSS
    MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST PROGS HAVE THE UPR LOW TRACKING ACROSS
    CHICAGO THEN INTO ERN UPR MI.

    EXPECT A SLUG OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
    THE WARM FRONT TO PIVOT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
    WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF FCSTS WITH THIS BATCH OF RAIN LOOK
    AGGRESSIVE… WITH UPWARDS OF ONE INCH POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS LIFTS
    THROUGH… LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
    ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY
    SHOULD BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED… AND IF WE GET ANY HEATING AT ALL A
    FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
    SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
    STRONGER STORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR
    WHERE BETTER SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED WITH SB CAPES OF
    1000-1500 J/KG.

  28. Jack says:

    Well…Hey,Hey,My,My ( Into The Black))))) CUE:::: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQhEvfeJocM. Crank it BILL, and Thanks For The PERFECT WEEKENDS we Have Been Blessed With. KEEP UM COMING….CHIEF!! Stay CueDDD for RAIN? Soon I Hope Tad Dry Out at The YARDofCUES….. ;-)

  29. Mary says:

    That Barrow webcam shows the open water is close with that dark line on the horizon….we could always tell where the open leads were where that darker sky was….

  30. Uncle Sparkee says:

    Hey hey hey my little weather hobos, getting crazy in the back woods! Tokes has been training killer and dopey how to tree coons, German shepherds treeing coons hahaha only in the back wood you crazy big light city slickers! Other than that the crops r popping just like your ol aunty Edna’s pretty Roses. Let’s get some rain in the backwoods this week my little weather hobos, your ol uncle sparks will surely appreciate it!

    1. Jack says:

      Well,well..uncle Sparkee is Here. Here is NICE PIC.of The ” Northern Lites” , from thee last Time I was Trucking up Your WAY…Baldwin TODAY…..hey,hey, I’m just HIGH…freeeee DAH WEED….. http://weedsmokersguide.com/pictures/Northern-Lights-Garden1.jpg. Stay cueDDDD & Keep on TOKIN…. ;-)

  31. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Kings 3-0 , and 3-0 for the series , uno mas..!!

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      What’s unfortunate is that hardly anyone in the LA basin even gives a darn. I have a good friend in Simi Valley and she said no one is talking about the Stanley Cup. Hardly any media coverage either. However, there’s quite a buzz about the World Cup.

  32. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    So maybe we might have a shot at seeing some unsettled weather in the Sunday – Monday time – frame as it’s a ways out still but looking like storms will at least be ” around ” our general area but as to where exactly , well probably not here…lol

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      For now I’ll settle for a nice rain tomorrow eve and Wednesday if we can manage reelin it in..!

    2. Something won’t come together correctly I can almost bet on. Either not enough instability, lack of moisture, lack of shear. Ive heard it all. Seems our atmosphere with all our sunshine we have had would be bursting at the seems to pop something big up. The KRP Tracking Machine is getting restless and needs to get out again after its repairs. Here’s to hoping!

      1. Jack says:

        KRP ? As in “W”KRP” ??? See HERE ,,For Blast …FROM MY Past …REALLY.!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFcA8gA4nD8. Bill, You Will Probably Remember Doing This in Your YOUNG RADIO DAZE !!! LOL…. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFcA8gA4nD8. Heck, Bill in crazy,hazy….DAZE of my Radio DAYS… I DID. RADIO IS NOT What it Use to bEEE….. :-( . However Stay CUEDDD…in Bill WE TRUST!! ;-)

        1. No KRP are just my initials but a lot of people think I got it from WKRP

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I bet someone’s going to propose a tax on volcanoes! So, it’s volcanoes and not my last incandescent light bulb that’s melting all that ice. Who’da thunk?

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