Tuesday

June 10th, 2014 at 3:31 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

modis lake michigan   This is the MODIS Lake Michigan satellite picture from Monday (from NOAA Coastwatch).  It’s clear over Lake Michigan.  The prevailing wind was mostly east and light.  You can see the cumulus development right up to the water from Muskegon down to Indiana.  North of Muskegon, a WNW lake breeze developed, so there were no cumulus clouds along the immediate lakeshore north of about Muskegon/Whitehall.  Sometimes with a general east wind and a lake breeze from the west, the convergence of air where the west wind meets the east wind can trigger a line of showers or thundershowers.  However, the air was too dry for that yesterday.  You can see the effect of the east wind off Lake Michigan in Wisconsin, where there are no cumulus clouds within about 30 miles of the lake.

This has been a nice month weatherwise so far.  In Grand Rapids over the last week, the average high temperature has been 77.6 and the average low temperature has been 55.7.  For the last 6 days, the average wind speed has been only 5.5 mph.  So far this month, we’ve had 76% of possible sunshine.  That figure will go down a bit with more cloud cover today and tomorrow.  Much of today will still be dry, but by late in the day, rain will be pushing up across the area from south to north.   The NAM model (caribou) gives G.R. 0.27″ of rain, Kalamazoo gets 0.95″ and Ludington gets 0.14″ on that model.   The GFS plot has 0.85″ for G.R.  The European gives G.R. 0.86″ and 0.46″ for Big Rapids.  We have a chance of a non-severe thunderstorm, but much of the precipitation will just be plain rain.  A weak front could touch off another shower or t-shower here early or late Thursday.  Friday and Saturday look dry and pleasant.  We’ll have to throw in a chance of a shower for late Sunday and there will be a chance of showers and storms next Monday.  Most of the weekend will be dry.  Friday night will be the coolest, probably down between 45 and 50 in most areas.  The European model takes the 850mb temperature to +2.3° C Friday AM – if we are that cool, it’ll be hard to get out of the 60s Friday PM.

Also, we have Tropical Storm Cristina off the SW coast of Mexico.  Check out the supercell t-storm in Rethel, FranceAll-time record ice extent in Antarctic.   This is kind of neat:  Tornado Frequency by Longitude.

33 Responses to “Tuesday”

  1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    Rain, bring lot’s of rain. :)

  2. Dan (Byron Center) says:

    Not complaining at all, the weather has been fantastic! We could use some rain. I have caught up with some of the watering as I got my underground sprinkling working. Grass is not nearly as crunchy! Keep the nice weather coming!

  3. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    My parents gave me the cold virus. I’m surprised that is still going around this late in the season.

    1. Stephen (North Muskegon) says:

      Yeah my brother now has pneumonia. Started with a cold then bronchitis now pneumonia. Luckily for me I’m healthy and have ankle surgery tomorrow morning. :)

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Hopefully he recovers quickly. I had that exact same problem a few years ago when I didn’t take care of my health. Ever since I have eaten healthier and exercised was more to avoid another bad sickness.

    2. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Feel better Nathan and thanks for the welcome to your area.

      1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

        Yup I’m sure you will like the area a lot. You’ll definitely find the winter to be more interesting :) summer not so much, but we still get storms once in a while.

  4. INDY says:

    No 90′s coming and very little rain = cool and dry summer!! INDYY!!!

  5. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    I’m up to +4.1 above average now for June with some mild nights on the horizon.

    Looks like the heat really increases next week. WXYZ showing 85-90 for five straight days starting next Thursday.

    If that pans out, I may have my third warm month in a row.

    Tom Skilling also mentioned the upcoming heat wave:

    “An evolving model consensus appears to have the Chicago area on track to produce temperatures approaching 90-degrees early next week if current forecast trends continue.”

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      The funny part is if you scroll through the days at the top of the page it says 71° for June 21 but their graphic says 90°… which is it?

      1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

        The 12-day hourly forecast tool is automated from somewhere different. If you put in a different zip code, for instance, it gives you a different forecast.

        I always go by their forecast which is the graphic.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Good for Detroilet and Chicago. They can have it. I prefer our more seasonable temps.

    3. Bill Steffen says:

      No sign of any 90-degree temperatures yet. Yesterday, the European had a 90-degree day on 6/19, but backed off today. The European weeklies have near average temperatures long-term…no extended heat waves.

  6. INDY says:

    We are in a drought we could use some rain……Bill says Friday night lows in the 40′s !!!! INDYY!!!

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      No drought here.

      May was one of the wettest months in years. In Minneapolis, they are approaching their all-time 6-month rainfall record.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        There was no rainfall 6 months ago in Minneapolis… or 5 months ago.

      2. INDY says:

        Last I new Bills blog is in GRAND RAPIDS MICHIGAN!! Yes is dry here!! INDYY!!

        1. Rad (Jenison/Hudsonville) says:

          Maybe NOT INDY,All-time record ice extent in Antarctic.the supercell t-storm in Rethel, France. Tropical Storm Cristina off the SW coast of Mexico.

        2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          Excellent point, INDY.

  7. DF (SE Mich) says:

    These nice weekends and rain during the week are putting a cramp on my Wednesday night sailing races… I’m hoping it blows through during the day tomorrow. GR really needs some rain so I’m hoping it gets some while I’m back on the east side.

  8. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Very interesting to see what a little wind does to the Lake Michigan average water temp.
    http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistic/gif/avgtemps-m_1992-2013.gif

  9. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    Tonights rain will definitely help out with the dry spell over our area. Things don’t seem to be too dry, but it hasn’t rained for several days now and Im sure the plants could use a nice quick soaking. Back to the nice weather this weekend though :)

  10. SlimJim NW GR (1) says:

    Here in GR we are off to a cloudy and somewhat cool start to this Tuesday the temp here at my house is now 67° with the cloudy skies. We look to get some needed rain here tonight as things are getting somewhat dry around the GR area (GR has had 0.50” of rain since May 22nd) But the end of May and the start of June sure has been nice that’s for sure. After the coming rain it now looks that we will then have several days of cool and dry but then do we have a brief warm spell? We could but then it could turn cool towards the end of the month. Here is where several stations are now after 9 days into June 2014

    GR (68.3° or +3.0°) and 0.50” of rain
    Lansing (67.2° or +2.7°) and 1.04” of rain
    Detroit (68.3° or +2.1°) and 0.59” of rain
    Saginaw (68.7° or +4.5°) and 0.24” of rain
    Flint (67.6° or +4.0) and 0.23” of rain
    Northern Lowed Michigan

    Gaylord (62.1 or +4.1°) and 0.83” of rain
    Traverse City (64.6° or +4.0°) and 0.42” of rain
    Alpena (62.8 or +3.9°0 and 0.35” of rain

    In the UP

    Marquette (59.8° or +2.3°) and 2.19” of rain
    Houghton (58.1° or +1.6° and 2.21” of rain
    The Soo (59.6° or +2.4° and 0.58” of rain

    But guess what? The there is still a small snow patch on Mt Ripley on June 10th

    http://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ripley/

    SlimJim

    1. fixxxer says:

      As of now yes late june into july looks cold.

  11. INDY says:

    Still cool outside today don’t really think we will get above 77* today INDYY!!

  12. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    What a fantastic WARM June so far. I love it. 14 days at or above 80 degrees so far. PERFECT.

    1. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

      Yes, it has only been below average (for highs) two days this month so far and below average three days (for lows) so far. Otherwise we have had seven days above average for highs and six days above average for lows!

    2. INDY says:

      Scanning Bills blog nothing better to do!! Rody aka fixer 2014!! INDYY!

      1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

        Yup just like you. Who knew. I love it. Thanks for listening. Enjoying this WARM weather so far. Perfect.

    3. matt says:

      + a gazillion rodey

  13. fixxxer says:

    More craptastic weather. Typical.

  14. John Drury says:

    I commented in late May about the impressive fog bank that rolled onto shore from Lake Michigan on 5/22/14. It was especially prominent near Frankfort (featured on HLN and YouTube videos, among others) but was also visible near Holland State Park. The reported explanation elsewhere on line is “advection fog”, formed by warm moist air moving over a cool surface, in this case, Lake Michigan. That makes sense to me. But in this case, where did the warm air come from? The snippets I have read are suggesting that it formed because of the dramatic difference in temperature between the Lake and the warm moist air over the land (West Michigan). But what I don’t understand is this: if the warm moist air over the shoreline caused the fog, I would have expected to see the fog forming near shore and moving westward over the Lake, associated with an off-shore breeze. But this wasn’t the case. The fog was clearly moving in from the west-southwest.

    I have done more reading and perhaps this is the explanation: During the summer months, a low pressure trough can be produced by intense heating inland which creates a strong pressure gradient, pulling the fog in from the water. (The fog was out over the Lake, produced by warm moist air that had come over the Lake from the west and southwest.) Normally, fog moves more slowly, but in this case, because of the extreme difference in temperature over the West Michigan shoreline (~ 80 degrees F.) compared to the temperature of and above the the water (low 40′s F.), a strong pressure gradient existed: As warm air over the shoreline rose, as warm air does, the much cooler air (and fog) over the Lake was pulled onto shore to take the place of the warm air.

    Any one have thoughts one way or the other?

    THANKS!

  15. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Heaviest rain tonight and tomorrow looks to be along and south of 96, with little if anything north of U.S 10 (Ludington) My guess on rainfall tonight and tomorrow is .50″-1.00″ south of I-96, .50″ along I-96, .25-.50″ between I-96 and U.S 10, and .0″-.10″ north of U.S 10. Just my guess judging by the weather models.

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