Thursday PM

June 12th, 2014 at 2:33 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

shn glerl   mkg glerl  8:25 pm – There is one thundershower along the Michigan/Indiana border near Sturgis moving east.  It’ll go thru St. Joseph and Branch Counties.  There’s a small, light shower near Edmore and a few sprinkles from Lansing to Augusta.  They are moving east.

The picture on the left is the S. Haven GLERL camera and the picture on the right is the Muskegon GLERL camera (from NOAA Coastwatch).   Some sun this PM in S. Haven where the Waterfront Film Festival is underway.  That shot is looking north and you can see both white cirrus clouds and the gray low clouds on the left, which extend up to Muskegon where it is still cloudy.  We have cleared out here in G.R. and we have a pleasant SW wind.  I just got back from FruitBasket Flowerland.  This time, I remembered the $10 off $50 coupon (reason alone to get the newspaper is the coupons you can use), which I didn’t have with me the last couple times I’ve been there.  Temperatures at 2 pm:  Just 55° on the beach at Muskegon, 63° on the beach at S. Haven.  It’s 72° in Big Rapids, 70° in Grand Rapids and at the Regional Airport in Holland and 64° at the Muskegon Airport, again – all 2 pm temps.       Here’s a satellite loop.  There’s a front coming across Lake Michigan that could touch off an isolated shower this PM/evening.  The best bet for that would be along and east of US 131 where it’s a little bit warmer, but even there it’s less than a 40% chance of your area getting rain.   Tomorrow’s going to be a cool day.  It’s only 56° at Houghton and Copper Harbor and 53° in Duluth (where the wind is NW and not coming off Lake Superior).   The NAM (caribou) and the GFS-plot both give G.R. an afternoon temp. of 62° tomorrow.   I think that’s a little too cool, but I bet much of the afternoon, it’ll be mid-upper 60s inland and near 60° at Lake Michigan.  The NAM (caribou) has it dry until about 6 pm Sunday, the GFS plot  and Canadian would probably hold the rain off until around sunset…so this weekend looks good.   The GFS plot has a lot of rain for G.R., 0.62″ Sun. night into Mon. AM, 0.31″ Mon. night into Tues. AM and 1.14″ Late Tues. to Weds. AM with 0.08″ on Thurs.  The Canadian would have a lot more dry hours than wet hours with the best bet for t-showers Sun. night and again late Weds.   I’ve just seen part of the European model and that also keeps us dry until sunset Sunday night.  It’s a little cool Saturday morning with most lows in the mid-upper 40s.   CFSv2 shows cooler than average temps. for Michigan and much of the Great Lakes for the 2nd half of June.

Also:  Hurricane Cristina reaches a strong Category 4 – could briefly reach low-end category 5 before weakening as it heads toward cooler water.  It’s no threat to land.   Rainfall over the last 30-days near to above average east of the Rockies.   Heavy rains have eased the drought in E. New Mexico and much of the S. Plains.   Temperatures north of 80° N. Latitude are colder than average, slowing the summer ice melt.  That trend should continue.

37 Responses to “Thursday PM”

  1. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    Cooler than average the rest of this month! Imagine that! Keep the below average temperatures coming! In another three months we will be gearing up for a WINTER to remember!! Mild El Nino = COLD and SNOW!!! fixxxer = Debbie Downer! Who knew?

    1. matt says:

      Warm weather soon get used to it or move who knew rock is dead thanks for listening

  2. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Wow temps still running above average. Who knew? Keep the above average temps coming. Looking forward to a MILD winter. I love it. Fantastic. Thanks for listening.

  3. DF (SE Mich) says:

    It is way too humid out… Can’t wait for tomorrow! A few showers went through A2 today, nothing spectacular.

    As for mosquitoes, there is a huge difference between the northern Detroit sprawled suburb wasteland and West Michigan. As for A2, the mosquitoes are much less than years past. EGR wasn’t bad either but that is well within the urban area.

    1. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Must be. Skeeters not bad either – even with all our lakes

  4. Hurricane Christina looks incredible on satellite! I love looking at hurricane structures on satellite there amazing. The only actual threat this hurricane has to land are some very small volcanic islands way out offshore in the Pacific about 150-200 miles offshore Mexico. But no one lives on them so its poses no concern. I honestly don’t see how those islands are even still there. Hurricanes off Mexico’s coast are strong and it seems they would be wiped off the map.

  5. John (Norton Shores) says:

    I think this will make us severe weather nuts happy. Still not holding high hopes but at least the NWS is talking the possibility of severe storms and MCS’s

    .LONG TERM…(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
    ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

    A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL OVER TAKE THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT
    AND LINGER UNTIL IT IS REPLACED WILL COOLER AND DRIER AIR WEDNESDAY
    NIGHT. THIS AIR MASS WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS.

    A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
    SUNDAY AND SHOULD GIVE WEST MICHIGAN A DECENT CHANCE AT STORMS…
    ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
    OF THE UPPER JET APPEARS TO BE IN A GOOD LOCATION THAT SOME OF THESE
    STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

    THE INITIAL FRONT WASHES OUT WITH ANOTHER ONE FORMING OVER THE
    UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
    THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SPAWN PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS TOO…WITH
    MCS/S VERY POSSIBLE AS SHORT WAVES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
    FLOW. TIMING ON THESE ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT…SO HAVE MUCH OF
    THIS PERIOD COVERED WITH 30/40 POPS.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Kyle, and Darren this is for you especially.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        All we can do is hope! I just want some good boomers! I guess the good news is that most models are now jumping onto this idea, still looks though as the GFS is still struggling to jump onto the train.

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Oops this was supposed to go below your comment Kyle.

        2. Uhg, the junk GFS model. I have never been impressed with it. Especially during the winter!

        3. John (Norton Shores) says:

          I don’t like that GFS either, I think it will eventually jump on though I hope!

        4. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

          I say bring the storms plz…!!

    2. This would go down as the #1 write up of the year but I am not convinced yet.

      1. I am crossing my fingers though!

  6. bluegill says:

    Not to belabor the point, but some pretty big icebergs on Superior yet -
    http://news.yahoo.com/surprise-icebergs-spotted-lake-superior-140245612.html

  7. Travis (Oakland County) says:

    Still no indications of any cool weather in the long-term after warm next week.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Average is just fine with me. The past couple of weeks have been great. I’m not ready for the hot weather yet.

    2. Bill Steffen says:

      There’s more blue than orange (more cool than warm, relative to average) on the map at Travis’ link.

  8. Buck's Achilles says:

    I took next week off work and the forecast looks great. It will be a week full of Squirts and teaching the wife how to do donkey drops on the neighbors trampoline. I may even attempt to convince “hitch in my giddy up” to leave his driveway and give the trampoline a try.

    1. Jenny's Snowthrower says:

      You gotta watch out for those donkey drops on a trampoline. if you aren’t ready for one you might end up with your own “Hitch in my giddy up”. I’ll try to stop by Mossy Pibber Lane to say hi during your week off.

      1. Buck's Achilles says:

        I’ll be sure to bring my sweater with the button.

        1. Jenny's Snowthrower says:

          I thought that thing got all beat up at the Yard O’ Bricks party last month?

    1. No offense but those maps are about junk LOL seems the CPC would have better maps than those. Those just look like they placed red and blue squares on the map

      1. I’m not saying the CPC is junk but those maps they have look awful.

    2. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Looks like someone took the first one, shook it like an etch a sketch, and the second one was the result. LOL

      1. AlleganJoe says:

        That’s Funny…”etch a sketch”…LOL… :)

    3. Travis (Oakland County) says:

      Their month forecast is completely different than their shorter-term forecasts that i find to be more accurate.

      1. DF (SE Mich) says:

        Right ……..

  9. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:
    June 9, 2014 at 11:23 pm
    So maybe we might have a shot at seeing some unsettled weather in the Sunday – Monday time – frame as it’s a ways out still but looking like storms will at least be ” around ” our general area but as to where exactly , well probably not …! Lol

    Okay Im staring to gain a bit of confidence in the forecast , let’s real the storms in , we are do…!!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I hope your prediction comes true! :)

  10. Brian(Grandville) says:

    Bill, you working on a weekly water level’s thread yet?

    1. Jack says:

      DONE !!! See Next Thread UP!! ;-)

  11. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    The Three Rivers Water Festival just managed to get their parade in. It rained really hard just before the parade and minutes after it ended. Some thunder with the second cell. Big drops. Thankfully, the fireworks don’t look to get rained out either with a dry weekend in store. Note: if you sit next to little kids in a parade, you get more candy. :)

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