Sunday

June 14th, 2014 at 12:27 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

Sunset Reeds Lake June 2014 Mason Schut  muskegon glerl Here’s the update from SPC on severe weather Sunday PM/Night:  “WHILE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS…A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN MO…ERN IA AND IL INTO SRN/ERN WI AND NWRN IND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST INVOF THE WARM FRONT.”   It’s getting close.  We’ll be trackin’ it.

Here’s my Saturday: – So far today, I gave a little speech at the Flag Day Ceremonies by the Hudsonville City Hall…went out to a few more plants and J and W’s…picked strawberries at Visser’s…stopped at the Blandford Nature Center and then got a haircut.  Then back home to get some chores done.  Beautiful, sunny day Saturday with very light wind with high pressure overhead.  It was 75° at 4 pm – exactly the 4 pm temp. I had on the planner last night on the late news.  It’s just 62.7° at the Muskegon beach weather station with an onshore breeze.  Picture on the right is from the Muskegon GLERL weather station (from NOAA Coastwatch).   Lots of boats out enjoying the day, but too cool for swimming.  The Holland St. Park water temp. Saturday was only 48°.   Up north it’s only 48° (air temp.) at Houghton and 49° at Copper Harbor.  Mackinac Is. is 59° and Charlevoix is 57°.   The GRR discussion mentions the word “derecho” as was picked up by a couple of our astute comments below.  They say:  “ANOTHER MCS (mesoscale complex of thunderstorms) LOOKS TO FIRE LATE MONDAY ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AND THETA E BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA THEN TRAVEL EAST AND MAY BE ENTERING WESTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS THE SYNOPTIC LOOK OF A PROGRESSIVE DERECHO AND SO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR  SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.” In the meantime – I’ve been talking for days now about showers and t-storms moving in around sunset Sunday night, but most of tomorrow looks dry.

Wow was it chilly Saturday AM – The coldest temp. was 28° at Doe Lake in the U.P.  It got down to 30° at Leota in Clare Co.  The low was 32° at Champion, Stonington and Kalkaska…it got down to 33° at Cadillac, Fife Lake, Baldwin and Grayling.  The low was 36° at Manistee, 37° at Reed City, 38° at Ludington, and the Kalamazoo Nature Center, 39° at Belding, Big Rapids and the agricultural station at Lawrence.  The official low was 44° at Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo (airport) and Muskegon.   There were a few spots that did report frost Sat. morning.

Here’s a neat pic. on the left of sunset on Reeds Lake Thursday evening from Mason Schut.  Click the pic. to enlarge.   Today will be a beautiful, sunny day with light SE to SW winds and a nice 30-degree temperature climb from the low-mid 40s early to the mid 70s in the late afternoon.  We may get a SW lake-effect breeze that will knock the temperatures along the lakeshore back into the mid 60s.   Sunday will be warmer, at least low 80s.   The overnight run of the NAM (caribou) has a chance of a shower/t-storm after 5 pm Sunday with the best chance in the evening/night – Monday looks mainly dry, then a chance of showers/t-storms again later Monday night from SW to NE across the area.    Here’s the Convective Outlooks for the next 3 days from the Storm Prediction Center.   Here’s U.S. Storm Reports from Friday.  Some of the colder high temperatures from Friday:  51° Marquette Beach, 52° Newberry, 54° Gaylord, 55° Munising.  The high temperature Friday at the mid-Lake Michigan buoy was 48.2° with a midnight water temp. of 38.3°.

Also:  Mexican Navy site on Socorro Island reports sustained 66 mph winds, gusting to 87 mph from Hurricane Cristina.  Thunderstorm approaching Washington D.C.   Storm with nice shelf cloud (roll cloud?) moving into NYC.  Nice mammatus clouds in New Mexico.   Family carries house 100 yards with family inside!

103 Responses to “Sunday”

  1. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    Maybe cook some smores on fire tonight. Looks like a good night for it.

  2. Sandy(Hudsonville) says:

    We cooked some too! Great evening!

  3. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    FANTASTIC sunny and cool weather! Whoever doesn’t like this weather might as well just go crawl under a rock and hide! Golf here I come!

    1. matt says:

      warm weather soon who knew imagine that, rock n roll is dead and warm weather. Bon fires at night who knew, don’t like it, move. Thanks for listening.

  4. Rodey (Rockford) says:

    Great news. Temps back into the 80′s starting Sunday. Bring it.

  5. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    No 90′s in sight! Who knew? This summer will be dominated with high temps in the 70′s and low 80′s! Imagine that!

    1. matt says:

      No cold in sight! Who know imagine that thanks for listening.

  6. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    We are having some AWESOME cool ROCKING weather lately! Keep the below normal temperatures coming!

    1. Rodey (Rockford) says:

      Just the facts. Still above average temps for the month. AWESOME. Who knew. Imagine that. Keep it coming. I love it. FANTASTIC.

      1. matt says:

        Warm weather who knew imagine that thanks for listening.

  7. DF (SE Mich) says:

    37 degrees this morning in Ann Arbor… Ridiculous. Looks like it will be nice later though.

  8. Tim (Spring Lake) says:

    Too chilly to go boating today, I think I would feel like an ice cube out on the lake. I’m liking tomorrow’s forecast better!!! Looks like today will be a good day to cut some wood up for camping next week.

  9. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Next week is beginning to look very active and I’m gaining hopes each day, looks to be our best set up yet this year for severe storms next week. Could it be we finally break this severe weather drought? I hope! :)

    1. I sure hope so, but it seems they dropped the talk of MCS/S here. By the sounds of there write-up it would be individual cells. Either way I will take severe weather but a healthy line of storms would be nice for a change

      1. Its also appears they have dropped talks of some good storms Sunday night into early Monday. Yesterday they were talking an MCS now they say its not favorable for severe weather. Uhg Lol

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      The NWS in Milwaukee and Detroit still have talks of a MCS so there is no reason to believe why there wouldn’t be an MCS that would go through the area, I just want some good boomers!

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Here is the GFS, it has a couple MCS/S going through the area between Tuesday and Thursday! :)

        http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_12z_slp_all.htm

  10. Once a marine always.... says:

    Went out last night watched moon rise very bright and very cool hue I hope it looks that cool tonight with clear skies

  11. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Check this out! If this is true, this may be a major scientific discovery! Google: “Massive subterranean water reservoir discovered under Earth”. Most of the articles are from yesterday. This is awesome: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/huge-underground-reservoir-holds-three-times-much-water-earths-oceans/ http://www.theverge.com/2014/6/14/5808888/scientists-discover-massive-ocean-of-water-400-miles-underground http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25723-massive-ocean-discovered-towards-earths-core.html This is super interesting. This isn’t exactly weather, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      *mind blown* I always assumed we were floating on a “lake” of molten rock. Also alarms me when everyone has assumed that backflow fracking fluids are stored in disposal wells far below any water.

  12. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Such a nice day…wow! Loving the low humidity as I know it’s on the way. Perfect day for a bike ride etc….!

  13. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Well let’s hope we can catch one of the many waves set to roll through the area this week , I like our odds…! Possibly a very wet week if the placement / timing rolls through.

    Rain total : 7 day. ( maybe 3+ inches for some )

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Yikes – that’s a lot of rain!!!!!

  14. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    My previous comment is awaiting moderation. I forgot about the two link rule. Did you guys hear about the scientific discovery announced yesterday? If you Google “massive subterranean water reservoir discovered under the earth” there’s a ton of articles on it. This is very interesting, if it’s true. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25723-massive-ocean-discovered-towards-earths-core.html http://www.theverge.com/2014/6/14/5808888/scientists-discover-massive-ocean-of-water-400-miles-underground I thought it worth mentioning. If a similar post appears above, it just means that it passed moderation.

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Thanks for sharing , very cool theory indeed.

  15. Slight Risk area tomorrow included Central and Southern Berrien County with a good chunk of the area in a 5% area.

  16. Jacob G says:

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/06/mile-long-icezilla-imaged-by-landsat/ possible mile long ice berg still floating in Superior. Could last until July if deep enough.

    1. DF (SE Mich) says:

      Funny. I thought the ice was gone…

  17. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Kyle this is for you, the NWS mentions the possibility of a progressive derecho Monday night.

    &&

    .SHORT TERM…(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

    FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
    THE POTENTIAL FOR A DERECHO ARRIVING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

    FAIRLY GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
    ECMWF AND GFS LEADS TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
    A ROUND OF SUMMER CONVECTION. AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARRIVES
    LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON. THE
    MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE SUNDAY EVENING WITH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
    STORMS MOVING THROUGH. HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
    BE MOST WIDESPREAD…BUT IT APPEARS MOST PLACES WILL SEE A QUARTER
    TO HALF INCH OF QPF BY MONDAY MORNING.

    PRECIP LINGERS LONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY MORNING
    BUT SHOULD BE DONE THERE BY AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING MOVES EAST.
    ANOTHER MCS LOOKS TO FIRE LATE MONDAY ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AND THETA
    E BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA THEN TRAVEL EAST AND MAY BE ENTERING
    WESTERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS THE SYNOPTIC LOOK OF
    A PROGRESSIVE DERECHO AND SO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR
    SEVERE WEATHER

    1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

      Wow. It’s rare that they actually use the word “derecho” in an outlook.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        It is, so I’m wondering g if this long awaited derecho will finally impact lower Michigan Monday night. I don’t hope any damage or power outages, I just want some good boomers.

        1. Mark (East Lansing) says:

          I hope not. A derecho is never a good thing.

        2. Brian (Grandville) says:

          I agree Mark. I don’t think derecho’s are ever anything less than bad news.

        3. John (Norton Shores) says:

          I don’t want a derecho either, I just want some good boomers and some hail.

        4. Michael g (se GR) says:

          I don’t know….a well placed one that mainly affects an area from maybe Flint over to Detroit wouldn’t be all bad……

      2. John (Norton Shores) says:

        The Canadian weather model also has it in the shape of a derecho, so I am defiantly keeping my eyes and ears pealed to Monday night.

      3. Jerry Hoag says:

        WOW Monday night looks like it needs to be closely watched!!!

  18. John (Norton Shores) says:

    The long term also looks very stormy

    .LONG TERM…(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
    ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014

    THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RATHER ACTIVE. WE COULD SEE
    SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY…ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
    BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
    LOWER TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40KTS
    SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. HIGH INSTABILITY
    WITH LI/S NEAR -8C AND MUCAPE AROUND 4K J/KG SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY
    OF ENERGY FOR THE SHORT WAVE TO WORK WITH.

    THE COLD FRONT WON/T MOVE VERY FAR SOUTH AND IN FACT WILL MOVE A BIT
    NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER PLAINS LOW DEVELOPS. THE FRONTAL
    BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO REMAIN NEAR/OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
    SATURDAY. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL
    OF THIS POINTS TO A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED FLOODING
    SEEMS LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY AFTER NEXT WEDNESDAY BUT WILL DEPEND
    ON JUST WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES.

    THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST AND HUMID WITH HIGHS AROUND 80.

  19. kevin. w says:

    Ya I mentioned earlier in the other blog that there is the potential for several severe weather events and maybe the biggest of the season. I was looking over the data this morning on the EHI values, Lifted indexes, and now looking at over 4K to 5K joules of energy. So now I’ve looked over the afternoon data and all points to somewhere over Iowa, Wisconsin and Lower Michigan for a significant severe weather/derecho event unfolding. Everything is pointing toward the very high side of all the perimeters. Strong straightline winds, very large hail and maybe some tornadic thunderstorms with this event and maybe one or two more. Timing is the most important on this/these events. :)

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      It will be interesting to keep an close eye on!!!

  20. John (Norton Shores) says:

    It’s easy to tell where the storms will be training over the same places next week with this map!

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

  21. DF (SE Mich) says:

    Lots of normal temps per WXYZ… hence the continued silence… ;)

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Who knew!

    2. Rocky (Rockford) says:

      Imagine that!

      1. fixxxer says:

        Shut it rj.

      2. matt says:

        Warm weather soon don’t like it move rock n roll is dead imagine that thanks for listening

  22. steven (Derby Lake) says:

    I had frost on the car at 4 am in Cadillac when I went to work. It was 34 degrees

  23. Brian(Grandville) says:

    The Tigers had a 10 run lead at the end of 6 innings, and ended up winning 12-9. Yikes!

    1. Jack says:

      Yikes, is Right Brian ! Crazy Central Division !! Aye…stay CueDDD..

  24. I know people hate Derechos, which I do in the sense of destruction an damage, but boy they are incredibly fun as they roll on. Strong winds are my favorite thing in thunderstorms. I’d never wish destruction but boy are derechos fun when they hit. The wall cloud is incredible

    1. Jack says:

      http://s.imwx.com/dru/2013/06/6f0c5b75-f895-4d43-bc4d-886063321835_320x180.jpg. I think Bill, Had This Map on The DERECHO Anniversary Thread awhile Back!! Anyways Stay CUEDD,,,, For a DERECHO ..Maybe ! ! Coming SOON!! ;-)

    2. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Check this out Kyle.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtauyyeF-mo
      I saw something similar to this in Gaylord back in the early 90′s.

      1. Jerry Hoag says:

        Jack yeah I saw that too!!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe a repeat for a derecho here in Michigan…….A must watch and wait and see thing now….heres to hoping at least for a very good line of storms!!!!

    3. Jerry Hoag says:

      Kyle Heck yeah the wall clouds with Derechos are cool!!!!!!!!!!!! Me either with the wind destruction but WAHOOOOOOO to the wind that can come with these!!!!!!!!!!!11

  25. fixxxer says:

    Derecho lmao…
    Remember where you live people. Lake michigan only likes snow storms.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Allendale is a snow magnet. Enjoy the nice weather.

    2. GunLakeDeb says:

      Did you live here in May 1997??

  26. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    What a glorious weather day today! Keep it coming! fixxxer and his band of ridiculous aliases will be complaining that that it wasn’t warm enough! What a loser!

    1. matt says:

      warm weather soon thanks for listening

    2. Once a marine always.... says:

      I do get humor when people blog with different names been reading this blog for years these people don’t fool no one must be living in moms basement beautiful night in allegan. Semper fi

  27. Rocky (Rockford) says:

    >>>>BREAKING NEWS>>>>> This could be the summer of no 90 degree days in GR! Bring it!

    1. matt says:

      warm weather soon thanks for listening

  28. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

    Looking forward to maybe having some boomers tomorrow night. I got all my perennial’s planted that I had started from seed earlier this year. Sure would be nice to have some rain on them, instead of me having to water them. Nothing beats “good ole rain”. Beautiful day today, and also tonight. Hope everyone had a wonderful Saturday. To all the “dad’s” out there – a Happy Father’s Day tomorrow to each one of you out there on Bill’s Blog – that goes out to you too Bill :)

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      My son and I went grocery shopping today. I saw crab legs for a great price, but said I don’t have enough money for them. He said “I have money dad”, and pulled out a handful of change. LOL! We’ll be making the best sloppy joe’s manwich would’ve never imagined possible.

      1. GunLakeDeb says:

        You’ve done a good job of raising a kid with a generous heart!!

      2. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

        That’s one son to be very proud of!!! You did good Brian (Grandville) :)

  29. John (Norton Shores) says:

    This is a text I pulled from an article from Accuweather for this week.

    The pattern could yield a couple of severe thunderstorm complexes that travel great distances from the Midwest into parts of the Northeast.

  30. GunLakeDeb says:

    Today was the best weather possible for a kayaking trip down the Manistee! Tomorrow, a bit of boating – and then we hunker down for the (hopefully mild) storms…. we’re in the 4″ zone – sure hope that is backed off by about half. Four inches of rain is almost as bad as no rain, for all the crops starting to emerge

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I love the Manistee. I usually make an annual salmon fishing trip up there in early October. The Pere Marquette is another gem as well.

  31. I am surprised West Michigan isn’t included in some sort of Slight Risk area for Monday. Or would they put that for Tuesday since its at night?

    1. I would imagine if an organized wind event can come forth Monday night, a Moderate Risk could possibly be issued. But everything is still a little ways out so I will still hold doubts

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      I think they are just waiting to pull the plug until Monday. By Monday there will be a lot more information available.

      1. Yes hopefully the forecasts can stay similar to eachother over the next few days. We shall see by tomorrow night and Monday morning!

    3. Jerry Hoag says:

      We will probably be put in a risk area tomorrow as more data comes in….Will be interesting to see what risk, slight to moderate???? Who knows at this point in the game…….

  32. GunLakeDeb says:

    Bill’s last link is confusing – it’s actually about a family carried in their house by a tornado!!!!!!!!! And unhurt!!!

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      I thought the same thing until I read the full article as well. That’s crazy!

  33. Hey fellow bloggers I forgot to mention this, I got the job at Meijer!! haha my first job!

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Congrats Kyle, I knew you would! :)

    2. Eileen (Hesperia) says:

      WTG Kyle – I would think Meijer’s would be a fun place to work. Enjoy your new job :)

    3. Jerry Hoag says:

      Kyle, Congratulations man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Enjoy the new job and first job!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    4. Brian(Grandville) says:

      That’s awesome Kyle, welcome to working the rest of your life. You will be wishing to have your school days back in about ten years.

      1. Not unless you enjoy what you do for a living :) then everyday doesn’t feel like work!

    5. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Congrats , as I new it was a lock…!!! :)

      1. Thanks everyone! Happy to get a first job and a paycheck. Tired of scrounging for change to collect in a glass jar to bring up to Coinstar machine for money!

  34. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Remember derecho ‘s are extremely hard to forecast and one could say that ” progressive ” derecho’s are in some ways more difficult to their ” serial ” counterpart , so I wouldn’t be worried attm …..( derechos in general are very much still a mystery ). But exciting non – the less , and I would be happy with some good old fashion house shaken boomers with vivid and frequent cg lighting!!!

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      Difficult to ” forecast ” *

      1. That’s one reason why I am so fascinated with Derecho’s, because the reason that they are a mystery. Would be fun to study them deeper and get some answers.

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      They are difficult but fun to track and watch to see how they form! :)

  35. 80MPH Winds and Baseball Size Hail with that small thunderstorm line in Northern Kansas

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      That’s something we certainly could see in the coming days minus the baseball sized hail!

      1. We shall see. 80mph winds are very destructive. If everything organized correctly, yeah 80mph winds cannot be ruled out here

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          If we indeed get the derecho than I could see 80MPH (which I sure hope we do not get) I don’t not want to be without power for days! Otherwise I could see isolated gust that high, these next few days are going to be interesting for sure!

  36. John says:

    I have an outdoor band concert I’m going to on Wednesday evening. Is it looking like it will be rained out at this point?

  37. INDY says:

    Thee Man cave is ready to RACK TACK AND TRACK MR. DERECHO!! Thee YARDofBRICKS will be on lock down starting at 5pm tomorrow Monday night we get the 1997 big one again !!!! Nows the time dig that fox hole move over moles!! Stay tuned we have 90 to 100 mph winds coming!! INDYY!!!

  38. Tom says:

    Maybe Kyle can get Rocky a summer job at Meijer in the frozen food department!

  39. janet nyreen says:

    Temps were much colder were I live in White Cloud, woke up this morning 8/15/14 and my entire garden was destroyed from “FROST”. All my squash and sweet corn are “DEAD”.I think you should have issued a frost advisory, at least I would have covered my garden !!!!!!!! Thanks.

    1. Bill Steffen says:

      I’m sorry to hear about your garden, Janet. The Frost Advisories (like Tornado Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories) are issued by the National Weather Service. It would be pretty chaotic if every TV stations and forecaster issued his/her warnings. I know the National Weather Service had thought about a Frost Advisory, but decided the impact area was too small for an Advisory.

    2. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      That’s no bueno…. :(

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        I’m surprised we didn’t see frost in Cedar as I’m not to far from white cloud but that’s the weather for ya in Michigan. I did also see the mention of frost in one of the NWS forecast discussions , I think it was the early Friday morn . Ya that would be pretty crazy if very station released a warning as it would get really really confusing. The NWS does do a good job but that doesn’t make one feel better when they have lost something such as their garden. :(

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