Severe RiskJune 16th, 2014 at 2:12 am by Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, Weather
9:15 pm Mon. - Storms continue to push thru SE MN and N. IA. At least one fatality and 16 critically injured near Stanton NE in tornadoes. Pilger NE Middle School after the tornado. Sheriff reports “more than half of Pilger has been destroyed”. Tornado Watch for W. Wisconsin as the storms continue east. Live Tornado Coverage and pictures on WOWT – Omaha. Twin tornadoes east of Norfolk – Significant damage and injuries. Another pic. of the tornadoes in Nebraska! Moderate Risk out from E. Nebraska to the Mississippi River. Storms are rockin’ - 87 mph wind gust at the airport in Sioux Falls SD. 96 mph gust just north of Sioux Falls! Golfball-sized hail in N. Iowa has smashed car and house windows. Storms would get to W. Michigan well after midnight. Latest HRRR shows MCS coming together in MN – should move east, maybe slightly south of due east. T-Storms may develop in N. Illinois this evening. W. Michigan is dry thru 3 am.
Just like I said…and just like GRR NWS has been talking about for several days (with some excellent AFD’s – area forecast discussions. You can go back to the Fri. PM AFD by JK AT GRR NWS – other forecasters at GRR have continued the theme – not saying this is a definite severe storm, but alerting us to that possibility. If we get strong/severe storms Monday night/Tuesday – you can’t say “it came without warning”) – the Storm Prediction Center now has put much of Lower Michigan in the Slight Risk Area for severe t-storms on Tuesday. They say: ” AN MCS (meso-scale thunderstorm system) MAY BE ONGOING TUE MORNING ACROSS SERN WI AND PERHAPS FAR NRN IL ON THE NOSE OF A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AMPLE CAPE AND FAVORABLE MEAN WINDS SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS LOWER MI”. Here’s the SPC discussion.
Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven,