Severe Risk

June 16th, 2014 at 2:12 am by under Bill's Blog, Weather

1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 2 Outlook  1630 UTC Day 3 Outlook 9:15 pm Mon. -  Storms continue to push thru SE MN and N. IA.   At least one fatality and 16 critically injured near Stanton NE in tornadoes.  Pilger NE Middle School after the tornado.  Sheriff reports “more than half of Pilger has been destroyed”.   Tornado Watch for W. Wisconsin as the storms continue east.   Live Tornado Coverage and pictures on WOWT – Omaha.    Twin tornadoes  east of Norfolk – Significant damage and injuries.  Another pic. of the tornadoes in Nebraska! Moderate Risk out from E. Nebraska to the Mississippi River.   Storms are rockin’ -  87 mph wind gust at the airport in Sioux Falls SD.   96 mph gust just north of Sioux Falls!  Golfball-sized hail in N. Iowa has smashed car and house windows.   Storms would get to W. Michigan well after midnight.   Latest HRRR shows MCS coming together in MN – should move east, maybe slightly south of due east.  T-Storms may develop in N. Illinois this evening.  W. Michigan is dry thru 3 am.

Just like I said…and just like GRR NWS has been talking about for several days (with some excellent AFD’s – area forecast discussions.  You can go back to the Fri. PM AFD by JK AT GRR NWS – other forecasters at GRR have continued the theme – not saying this is a definite severe storm, but alerting us to that possibility.  If we get strong/severe storms Monday night/Tuesday – you can’t say “it came without warning”) – the Storm Prediction Center now has put much of Lower Michigan in the Slight Risk Area for severe t-storms on Tuesday.  They say:  ” AN MCS (meso-scale thunderstorm system) MAY BE ONGOING TUE MORNING ACROSS SERN WI AND PERHAPS FAR NRN IL ON THE NOSE OF A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. AMPLE CAPE AND FAVORABLE MEAN WINDS SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS LOWER MI”.   Here’s the SPC discussion.

Check out the GRR NWS discussion and the latest surface map. Check out Regional radar to see the rain across the Great Lakes. Here’s GRR radar, local lightning data, meso-discussions and current watches from SPC and a satellite loop. Here’s current Michigan temperatures, National lightning data and the latest discussion from GRR NWS. Here’s National Storm Reports for today and yesterday. Here’s a live pic. of the beach at Grand Haven,

Also, a comparison of the Titanic with a modern cruise ship

748 Responses to “Severe Risk”

  1. Jeff (Richland) says:

    Latest HRRR continues to show the activity weakening and the energy moving into northern Michigan toward Traverse City and nothing for any of us.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      It does show some storms developing over Muskegon county though, I will take a good storm! :)

  2. Nathan (Forest Hills) says:

    NWS responded to my question:
    Nathan Anthony I have had this question asked to me today multiple times. It seem like in you 7PM aviation update you stated that the lakeshore would get the strongest storms and then they would weaken as they progress over land. Is this true? Thanks
    Like · Reply · 35 mins

    US National Weather Service Grand Rapids Michigan Hi, Nathan. Generally speaking, when we get a line or complex of storms that approaches the lake shore, it is more common to experience higher gusts along the shore (not a lot of friction to slow ground level winds over the lake). Another factor here is that the further we go into the morning hours, the weaker this complex could be. In a lot of cases, these complexes tend to weaken during the mid morning hours as it loses support from the lower level jet (wind). The explanation is more technical, but basically, these type of systems tend to be driven by the way the nighttime atmosphere sets up. So, a good question is, “How fast does it get here and does it really pack much of a punch when it does?” That is yet to be seen. We realize that when hearing “derecho” many people that were around in 1998 relate to that event. That was a heck of a storm and definitely one of the more exceptional cases. That said, it’s always good to have awareness, even if something that strong isn’t likely to occur. These complexes (placement, timing and severity) are a bit of a nuisance.

    1. GunLakeDeb says:

      Cool, Nathan!

      I have always felt that the NWS “Hourly Graphical Forecast” is remarkably accurate (I think it’s based on the aviation forecast)- and since I’m halfway between GRR and AZO, I check both. Neither is showing anything alarming overnight – just thunderstorms and maybe gusts to 28 MPH.

      I’m hoping that is the case.

    2. dano (Norton Shores) says:

      Nice response!!

    3. Jack says:

      Two Thumbs UP! Like it…. ;-)

  3. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

    For what its worth….thunderstorm outlook

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      I was just looking at tht and about to post…lol. I like the looks of that.

  4. INDY says:

    What is that a pop up storm just north of Chitown?? Hmmmm!! INDYY!!

    1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

      interesting indeed….

  5. Jack says:

    Off Topic…wtheck is Going on with The TIGERS…sheeesshhh…

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Verlander in general! I don’t get it either Jack. Big series right now.

    2. INDY says:

      JV he sucks time to trade him!! INDYY!!

  6. dano (Norton Shores) says:

    MAY 30-31, 1998 DERECHO
    Here is a nice link of the 1998 storms
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

  7. Well a Tornado Watch will be issued for Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois here sometime soon

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1028.html

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      OIt says they will begin to move to thje southeast, all of this is giving me a headache, the HRRR shows it moving to the east northeast while the SPC and TWC have it moving to the southeast. What is going to happen?

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        *All* not Olt lol

        1. John (Norton Shores) says:

          Sorry *they* lol I can’t think right now.

      2. INDY says:

        Its going to rain tonight!! INDYY!

        1. Cliff(KZOO) says:

          following the better moisture, Chicago nws was saying it would go more of a east southeast direction while the individual cells go northeast that develop in front.

      3. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

        Usually they will drop south east due to better instability but there is some strong SW flow aloft which i think will keep them on a more east track. Further development on the south end may pull it more south though.

  8. INDY says:

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=mkx&loop=yes Moving east fast!! This will be here well before 6-8am!! INDYY!!

  9. Cliff(KZOO) says:

    cell just popped up over the lake by Chicago!!!

  10. gendalyn says:

    I hope they die down before they hit northwest PA.. And if they don’t, oh freakin well! I’ll go over to my neighbors house, where there’s a basement!! :)

  11. INDY says:

    Getting g crazy in Wisconsin right now storms are popping up and moving our way!! I told u all 10pm we would be tracking storms on our radar!! INDYY!!

  12. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Like the answer to Nathan’s question from NWS ,…. These storms are a pain to forecast is a large part of what he is saying and what I’ve been mentioning … So the answer is , it’s unknown but unlikely but one important caveat is ” if ” it were a strong system / well organized the lake will not matter especially with a ” self ” sustaining derecho ( strong well developed. The reason I know this is because I read this in it’s entirety a while back and if you haven’t read this you should if you want to know about this phenomenon . :)

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofacts.htm

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      I should say know what little they do understand about this mystery….. Great read very very interesting

  13. Yup (Grandvile) says:

    So, you are saying I should put my car in the garage tonight?

    1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

      Not a drop of rain leave it our and the windows open ;)

      1. Yup (Grandvile) says:

        What’s my deductible again? :)

  14. John (Norton Shores) says:

    I think the storms from the southern part of the line are robbing the moisture from the northern part of the line.

    1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

      Ya those storms all developing on the south end are going to alter the bow, cold pool and the resulting path.

  15. Cliff(KZOO) says:

    looking like a good rain soaker, will take that over the storms. I think I94 south has the best chance for severe. Usually how it goes.

    1. Brian(Grandville) says:

      Exactly. Just hoping for some rain.

  16. All the warning for NE Iowa have been cancelled. I think ill go to bed soon

  17. INDY says:

    I have some Jimmy Buuffet playing no way is it bed time!! INDY and Bill have been tracing for 13 hours now!!! INDYY!

  18. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Better luck maybe tomorrow evening, as many have been saying it’s better we don’t get rain tomorrow morning because then we don’t have to worry about clearing out thus resulting in the continued possibility of more development tomorrow afternoon/evening! :)

    1. Probably won’t get any tomorrow either.

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        The models do show development tomorrow evening, plus we have all day Wednesday be positive Kyle, I know it’s been a dry season around here but we actually have a chance over these next couple days! :)

        1. I sure hope so. This state really sucks for weather.But heres to hoping for an MCS tomorrow!

        2. John (Norton Shores) says:

          NWS mentions the possibility of another MCS tomorrow evening, and this time they are not overhyping that possibility so that might just mean we get something good! :)

        3. Lisa says:

          We are traveling west tomorrow night/Wednesday. I sure hope that we don’t run into anything dicey.

  19. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Fox 17 just showed the storms fizzling out before they hit the lakeshore. Shows no rain for anyone. First we were supposed to get a soaking rain and storm Sunday night…now this. Hopefully some of it survives…I need rain.

  20. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    ATTENTION….STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE……….THEY WILL BE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITH LOTS OF LIGHTNING….AND BIG BOOMS!!! GET READY WEST MICHIGAN….ITS PARTY TIME!!!!!! :)

    1. Jack says:

      Do TELL…4:20 am is My GREEN Guess…. Stay CUEDD & 4/20 coming SOON…TUNE….. ;-)

  21. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    What outlooks could look like when forecasting a progressive digging line seg , or ” Derecho “. Last year June 13 ( not same system of-course , but interesting still ). Close date as well… :)

      1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

        Also if you read the outlook , scroll to bottom , you will see the talk about a derecho

    1. tinainvbcounty says:

      This hit us. We lost over 50 trees and out barn roof. Trees down in all directions. Still picking up…..

  22. INDY says:

    700 COMMENTS BILL THIS IS A GOOODDD ONE!! INDYY!!

  23. INDY says:

    WOW main line of storms startin g to move more north east again!! HERE WE GO!! INDYY!!

    1. Jack says:

      The IWS is Large and…In CHARGE…..Stay CueDDDDD!!, ;-)

  24. John says:

    Storms are weakening..good. I’m off to bed now that I’m convinced I won’t blow away tonight/tomorrow morning.

    1. INDY says:

      Nice Find Sara!! Like it!! That just may put fixer to bed!! INDYY!!

    2. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

      Not sure how our chances have tripled we have been in a 15% slight risk for 2 days….

      1. Agreed Mike. At this point I have no clue…but mother nature has been known to surprise us lol. I know the lake protects us from really nasty weather, but I’m tired of missing out all the time. Wait and see I guess…

        1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

          I am tired of it too we are way overdue for some good storms. Just wont be tonight.

  25. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    Those giving up and going to bed make sure to keep your weather radios on. With an atmosphere like this anything can happen.

  26. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Why is everyone afraid the storms may miss north of GR? http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/illinois/weather-radar?play=1 Either it’s just me or the radar, but this looks more like a Kalamazoo to Grand Rapids event. It’s even heading my way right now. Let’s just see if it holds together.

  27. Not to be negative because I am usually not, but I guarentee tomorrow will be to cloudy and we won’t get anything. I hope I am wrong but thats how this state works. Times like this make me want to move lol

  28. John (Norton Shores) says:

    I am still hoping to wake up to a nice surprise, what I would LOVE to wake up to is the sounds of storms! :)

  29. Wow the past radar sweep intensified a little bit. Storms goin crazy for us.

    1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

      It appeared to weaken but it is going over the La crosse radar site. Should get a better idea on intensity the next few scans

    2. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

      Seeing plenty of dark red and purple on the front line of the storms. Lots of lightning hopefully. It’s nights like this I wish I had a weather radio.

    3. John (Norton Shores) says:

      It’s intensifying again! :) New severe thunderstorm watch for much of central and southern Wisconsin!

  30. Unless the cloudy errode in the morning, I don’t see where we clear out tomorrow. The clear line is all the way back near Aberdeen, SD

      1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

        we still have 12 hours or so for the clouds to dissapate or move off to the north and east. All depends what happens with this line of storms. Im sure there will start to be a weakening trend after midnight or so.

    1. John (Norton Shores) says:

      Intellicast shows us beginning to clear out around 10am tomorrow morning.

  31. Jack says:

    Will Good OLE Lake Michigan INTENSIFY These STORMS ??hmmmm….stay CUEDDD…G.R. ;-)

  32. Jim S (Saugatuck Twp) says:

    Was hoping the NWS would issue their update before bed.

  33. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

    Latest HRRR shows storms redeveloping mid lake west of grand rapids at llam tomorrow… Definently something to watch.

  34. Jack says:

    Get out The Fiddle & Rosin UP BOW,,,I’m Getting READY FOR GOD’S OWN…LIGHT SHOW ::::: http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer_files/lts-image.jpg?foo=1402974858286.

  35. Jeremy (Three Rivers) says:

    Night people. Have fun tracking the storms. Still hoping to wake up to some thunder in the night.

  36. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0308.html

    TAKE THAT WATCH…AND MOVE IT STRAIGHT EAST….AND ALL OF US ARE COVERED…..TIME TO GET READY!!!! ITS GONNA STORM

    1. Mike(Shepherd, Mi) says:

      They must not think the storms are going to stay together or they would have ran the watch all the way to the lake…

  37. Cassie in Kentwood says:

    Just waiting for this line of storms to die out. We will probably get some showers.

  38. gendalyn says:

    Not sure which source to trust… Intellicast or NOAA?? Well, one shows that there will be severe storms today, and the other say today and tomorrow. CONFUSED!! ~_*

    1. gendalyn says:

      But… My theory is that since it’s way out west, and it’s passing over the lake… It’ll die down before it gets here. So I’m not gonna worry. The only time I have to be worried is when my dad is worried, and he’s not, so I’m not. Lol.. Too many words?

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