Severe T-Storm Watch – S. Wisconsin/N. Illinois

June 16th, 2014 at 10:41 pm by under Bill's Blog, Weather

WW0308 RADAR Thumbnail Image This is the new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for S. Wisconsin and N. Illinois. Note that they didn’t extend it to Milwaukee and Chicago. So, they’re not convinced this thing has the best legs right now. Lots of 40-55 mph gusts with the line.   HEY – look at this pic.   Look at this pic.  It looks like there’s an entire HOUSE in the air!

135 Responses to “Severe T-Storm Watch – S. Wisconsin/N. Illinois”

  1. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Exactly what I was afraid of it’s beginning to fall apart, well see if it can hold to lake Michigan.

    1. Paul says:

      Fall apart? Where?

    2. John (Norton Shores) says:

      The bowing segment is falling apart, not as well organized as about a 1/2 hour ago.

  2. Scott (robinson twsp) says:

    I see a storm popped up north of MILW over the lake.

  3. John (Norton Shores) says:

    Doesn’t look to likely for us, we’ll see though.

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1140 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

    AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF SRN WI…ERN IA…AND NRN IL

    CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307…308…

    VALID 170440Z – 170545Z

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
    307…308…CONTINUES.

    SUMMARY…A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
    CONTINUE MOVING SEWD WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO
    CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

    DISCUSSION…BOWING LINE OF SVR TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE E/ESE AT
    AROUND 40 KTS WITH A CONTINUED HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE. A SSWLY
    LOW-LEVEL JET AVERAGING 50 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
    MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR NWD INTO NRN IL/SRN WI WITH MUCAPE AVERAGING 1500
    TO 2500 J/KG. WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL…THE LINE SHOULD
    REMAIN SEVERE THRU 08Z AND TRANSIENT AREAS OF ENHANCED BOWNG
    SEGMENTS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF QLCS TORNADOES. THIS IS MOST LIKELY
    ACROSS FAR SRN WI/NRN IL WHERE WARMER SFC TEMPS EXIST. WITH
    TIME…THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LINE /CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF
    EFT/ MAY REQUIRE A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION OF WW ACROSS THE CHICAGO
    METROPOLITAN AREA. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER A LOCAL EXTENSION
    WILL BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MILWAUKEE AREA DUE TO SSE
    WINDS AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

    1. Paul says:

      Is this guy related to fixxxer?

      1. John (Norton Shores) says:

        Not even near, I am very into severe weather too, I just don’t want to get my self disappointed, I am hoping for severe weather just as much as the rest of you!

        1. Paul says:

          Gotcha!

  4. John (Norton Shores) says:

    We’ll goodnight bloggers, got to get my sleep! hoping to be woken up by good storms!

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Good Night John……get a good sleep some good storms to hit us in about 3 hours or so…

  5. Tornado Warning for Madison, WI. My guess is the storms die out and we get nothing. Just my thoughts. Off to bed

    1. Jerry Hoag says:

      Hey Kyle where do I look for you on FaceBook Under?????

    2. Jerry Hoag says:

      Tornado Warned storm……..WAHOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

    3. Jerry Hoag says:

      Sorry Kyle meant Travis.,….but we can talk also on facebook if you want.

  6. Tim (Walker) says:

    Anyone see the hook near madison. Is that a tornado.

  7. Ray says:

    It’s right over Token Creek Wi.

  8. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    Lightning strike detected in Muskegon MI

    1. Tim (Walker) says:

      Where? What site?

  9. Jerry Hoag says:

    Well that line of storms is weakening….GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, maybe tomorrow afternoon will be our time. If we get a lot of sunshine during the day and a lot of heat…..we will see…..Good night you all………

  10. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    still in slight risk area…

  11. Travis (Lake Odessa) says:

    .AVIATION…(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
    ISSUED AT 1159 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

    MORE CONFIDENCE IN STORMS MAKING IT ACROSS THE LAKE THAN WITH THE
    00Z ISSUANCE. BASED ON A COMPARISON OF NUMEROUS SHORT RANGE MODELS
    HAVE DECIDED TO BRING IN TSRA TO MKG BY 08Z WITH SOME CONFIDENCE
    THAT STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT. A WANE IN THE STRENGTH
    OF THE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY TO MID MORNING SO THE WORST
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MKG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
    ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOCALLY VERY
    STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50KT MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z MAINLY FOR
    MKG BUT A RISK AT GRR AND AZO AS WELL GIVEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED WITH
    THESE STORMS IN WISCONSIN AND IOWA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
    MENTION THOSE GUSTS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT.
    ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AROUND 00Z AND BEYOND
    WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

  12. Jack says:

    KNOCK,Knockin on OUR DOOR for GOD’S amazing LIGHT SHOW !! Anyone at the Lakeshore seeing the SKY Come alive YET??? Hey, Bill…U seeing any Litnin ZOOMs your WAY!!! Or is it Time 2 STAY CUEDD….. ;-)

    1. Tim (Walker) says:

      How long was this image captured for? 1 hour 5 hours?

  13. Ray says:

    Here’s a Milwaukee cam. http://www.lakefrontcam.com/

  14. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I just woke up and I can barely see lighting off in the distance and I’m in cedar s….too my north and west . It looks like some of this could make it at least to the lake shore for some but I’ve seen no updates ?? It’s definitely loosing steam but to what extent , idk . They aren’t talking about it so , hmmmm. .

    1. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

      I’m guessing some winds and rain but the storms are losing steam as they hit the lake , actually looks better on radar south but who knows….back to sleep for a bit.

  15. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    Finally an update , here it is….( small excerpt ).

    CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WX POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD.

    AN MCS TRACKING EAST ACROSS EASTERN WI/LAKE MI EARLY THIS MORNING
    WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
    MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
    ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER IT IS
    NOTED THAT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN WI IS NO LONGER SEVERE AND NOT
    NEARLY AS ROBUST OR ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER TONIGHT. RADAR AND
    IR SAT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION
    SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.

    Link :

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRR&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

  16. DarrenSVRstm ( Cedar S ) says:

    I love how my overnight forecast went from nothing to 60% and thunderstorms likely. Maybe a few boomers around 5:00 am as that will be my alarm from mother – nature I hope . ( good chance for some baby boomers ). :)

    Latest TSM outlook for us:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/imgs/enh_1200.gif

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